Category Archives: Climate issues

Storm-weary Catalinans prepare for more strong storms, cold, and storm weariness

Catalinans experienced a FOURTH cloudy day in a row, and, over the past few days, including yesterday’s few drops that fell at 4:24 PM, have experienced over an inch of rain!

Some grumbling has started concerning muddy,  pot-holed and puddled up dirt roads, about the washes running across roads lately, water and mud splashing on the car day after day,  and brutally low temperatures dipping to well below 50° degrees in the morning now for several days in a row.  Its 40° F here as I write this.

While a brief respite is in progress now,  Catalinans were discouraged to learn that more strong storms are due in this weekend, bringing possibly damaging winds and heavy rains that will augment the poor road conditions.

How much rain?

Let us look below and see how much has been calculated by our best model at the University of Arizona’s Wildcat Hydro and Atmos Sci Dept  (I am so glad they provide this service; I donate to the Dept,  as we all should!):

Precip totals by 8 PM, January 23rd after a few storms have gone by.
Precip totals by 8 PM, January 23rd after a few storms have gone by.  As you can see lots of red and yelleows in Arizona’s critical mountain regions for snowpack, and we’re in the inch or so of rain, pretty much like the amount produced here by the last storm.  What a January this is turning out to be!

Hah!  We can’t complain too much about inclement weather compared to California’s pluvialities.  Here is a table and map of precip amounts for that State through just the first 14 days.  Prepare to gasp:

A map and table of the highest 20 rainfall totals in California and Nevada just through January 14th. Astounding! And 10-20 inches more are expected at some of these sites before the month is out.
A map and table of the highest 20 rainfall totals in California and Nevada just through January 14th. Astounding! And 10-20 inches more are expected at some of these sites before the month is out.  Yep, by Jan 14th, one station was closing in on 40 inches of rain!

The remarkable aspect of this rainfall anomaly on the West Coast and in the Southwest, which is also quite wet, is that it could not be seen in climate forecasts days to a couple of weeks in advance.  Its not that the folks at the Climate Prediction Center aren’t the best that we can get, its just a statement about how hard it is to get a longer term forecast right.  Many are right, but lately, recalling the “Big Niño Bust of 2015-16” where the forecasts of a wet Southwest and central and southern California went terribly awry, those forecasts have taken a beating.  Here’s what was expected this winter by the CPC, first, for January, a forecast made on the last day of December. when the forecast models we use day to day would have had some influence:

The precipitation forecast for January 2017 by the CPC.
The precipitation forecast for January 2017 by the CPC.

As can be seen, the extreme rains that hit California, and our own well above normal precip, though on the doorstep on December 31st, were unforeseen.  That’s how tough it is.

Below, the forecast for January through March, also going astray, though a recovery could be had by a very dry Feb and March in Cal and the Southwest, something not likely to happen now.

Below, the forecast for the three month period of January through March, also now going astray.
Below, the forecast for the three month period of January through March, also now going astray.

Glad I’m not forecasting for a month or three months!  Gads, yesterday we had ice galore here and there, and I had predicted that morning that it was doubtful that ice could form in our clouds yeserday and how about that rainbow yesterday afternoon, to change the subject quickly, but smoothly; hardly a ripple, something gleaned from the election debates:

4:59 PM. A rainbow.
4:59 PM. A rainbow, an implicit indicator of ice in clouds yesterday.  There was a lot in some areas, particularly over the Catalinas in the late afternoon.

Some additional views, including a horse, which should increase web traffic:

Horse, muddy corral, and supporting rainbow evidence for why the corral is muddy. Horse: "Why is that rainbow on my butt?"
Horse, muddy corral, and supporting rainbow evidence for why the corral is muddy. Horse “Chero-key”: “Why is that rainbow on my butt?”
Rainbow empties into a rain gauge.
Rainbow empties into a NWS-style, 8-inch diameter rain gauge.  Real weathermen have real rain gauges, not the cheap plastic toy types.  Just kidding, CoCo and rainlog, orgs that  use cheap plastic toy-type gauges.  Just kidding again, CoCo and rainlog. orgs.
5:09 PM. Here a completely different rainbow, because I moved a few feet, and the rain drops in the prior bows have fallen to the ground, empties into yet another 8-inch diameter rain gauge, a tipping bucket one which is online at KAZCATAL4. Its been under-measuring the rain, however, for some time.
5:09 PM. Here a completely different rainbow, because I moved a few feet, and the rain drops in the prior bows have fallen to the ground, empties into yet another 8-inch diameter rain gauge, a tipping bucket one which is online at KAZCATAL4. Its been under-measuring the rain, however, for some time.

OK, now for the rest of the day, your daily cloud diary:

8:09 AM. You got yer normal TUS exiting smog plume heading for Mark Albright's house in Continental Ranch over there on the right. There is some Stratus fractus in that plume as well. The damp air has caused some of the hygroscopic particles to swell up; be deliquesed, which increases the opacity of smog. Such an effect is particularly bad on the East Coast ahead of cold fronts when warm, humid, smog-laden air is brought northward ahead of fronts. Gads, its awful. Even when the sky is cloudless, you can hardly tell its blue!
8:09 AM. You got yer normal TUS exiting smog plume heading for Mark Albright’s house in Continental Ranch over there on the right. There is some Stratus fractus in that plume as well. The damp air has caused some of the hygroscopic particles to swell up; be deliquesced, which increases the opacity of smog. Such an effect is particularly bad on the East Coast ahead of cold fronts when warm, humid, smog-laden air is brought northward ahead of fronts. Gads, its awful. Even when the sky is cloudless, you can hardly tell its blue!  Above the smog, Stratocumulus.
9:36 AM. Had evidence of a little smog up thisaway, too. Again, the whitish haze is due to deliquesced partilces. As the air dries out and the day warms up, this effect disappears. even though the aerosol particles that were "deliquesced" are still around. The Five Satins, "Still Around." That takes me back aways.
9:36 AM. Had evidence of a little smog up thisaway, too. Again, the whitish haze is due to deliquesced partilces. As the air dries out and the day warms up, this effect disappears. even though the aerosol particles that were “deliquesced” are still around. The Five Satins, “Still Around.”  Gads, that takes me back a-ways when I was 2 inches taller than now….
10:10 AM. Smog plume, as sometimes happens, begins to drift northward as the mountains start launching Cumulus clouds and cause the wind to move toward them. Can't say too much about the central cloud feature, a gesture of some kind it would appear.
10:10 AM. Smog plume, as sometimes happens, begins to drift northward as the mountains start launching Cumulus clouds and cause the wind to move toward them. Can’t say too much about the central cloud feature, a gesture of some kind it would appear.
10:27 AM. Nice lighting scene I thought.
10:27 AM. Nice lighting scene I thought.  Cumulus turrets were rocketing upward at this time.
1:48 PM. Not much going on. Underlying Cumulus bases lifted, some Cumulus spreading out adding to the general Stratocumulus deck. No ice around, as was forecast.
1:48 PM. Not much going on. Underlying Cumulus bases lifted, some Cumulus spreading out adding to the slightly higher general Stratocumulus deck. No ice around, as was forecast.
3:02 PM. Something is going terribly WRONG with the anticipation of no ice producing clouds yesterday. Rain begins to fall on the Catalinas.
3:02 PM. Something is going terribly WRONG with the anticipation of no ice producing clouds yesterday. Rain begins to fall on the Catalinas.
3:20 PM. A totally humiliating, completely glaciated tiny Cumulonimbus remains breaks into view from the Stratocumulus deck.
3:20 PM. A totally humiliating, completely glaciated tiny Cumulonimbus remains breaks into view from the Stratocumulus deck.  On the other hand. another fascinating day of ice multiplication here in Arizona!  Look at that little guy, all ice, and tops almost certainly warmer than about -12° C from sounding data.  This would mean that those 10s to hundreds per liter of ice that you’re looking at are needles and hollow column ice crystals called “sheaths.”  Man, I wanted to sample that cloud so bad!  What happened to cause this cloud was that at one point its top got a couple of degrees Celsius colder than the surrounding clouds that did not produce ice.  Rain was reaching the ground at this time o er there even though it is in the dissipating stage, too.
3:43 PM. In the meantime, the showers emitting from the clouds over the Catalinas were getting more enthusiastic (read, "personally insulting"). No doubt if you could get on top, they would have looked exactly like that dissipating Cb shown above.
3:43 PM. In the meantime, the showers emitting from the clouds over the Catalinas were getting more enthusiastic (read, “personally insulting”). No doubt if you could get on top, they would have looked exactly like that dissipating Cb shown above.

But, then there were some great sun and lighting scenes in those showers, not to mention the brilliant rainbow that was to come:

4:47 PM.  Its a little crazy, I know, but I just love these rainy, sunlit scenes on our mountains, or those sun and shadow scenes that I post so many of.  Just never will get tired of them.
4:47 PM. Its a little crazy, I know, but I just love these rainy, sunlit scenes on our mountains, or those sun and shadow scenes that I post so many of. Just never will get tired of them.
4:51.  More of same.  Notice inclusion of man-sized rain gauge in foreground.  Its a nice touch if you, too, have one, which I hope you do.
4:51. More of same. Notice inclusion of man-sized rain gauge in foreground. Its a nice touch if you, too, have one, which I hope you do.  It really says who you are.

The End

Thanks, if anyone is out there….

Lucky snap; studies in orange

From the past three days, these:

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From a single snap, this LTG complexity caught three evenings ago.
DSC_8278
This was taken seconds before the big flash, which kind of ruined the exposure when it happened.
DSC_8244
This last series of photos were taken the evening before. Kinda pretty I thought.

DSC_8238 DSC_8232 DSC_8231

In other news…..

Record July rains are falling in much of the coastal and intermediate valleys of southern California as the pathetic remnant of once proud Category FOUR hurricane Dolores makes landfall there today.  Places like San Diego have had well over an inch, unheard of in July.  August, not so much, since tropical storm remnants have passed over southern Cal in a few Augusts.  Remember August 1977, when two inches fell on LA due to a tropical storm remnant?

That also August deluge in Los Angeles, by coincidence I am sure, preceded the big Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) switch in which low centers in the Pacific shifted farther to the south beginning with the 77-78 winter and the Arctic warmed up.  Wallace et al 1995, Science Mag, discoverers of the PDO, were claiming that the PDO shift had seriously muddied up the global warming hoopla of the time, suggesting caution in those global warming claims.

Nobody really paid any attention, since it was about to get even WARMER in the years immediately ahead, like in the 97-98 winter when a giant El Nino, like the one now out there, spiked earth temperatures to a record high of the time.

By the way,  the phrase, “global warming”,  has been supplanted by the phrase, “climate change”, one that has been bastardized from its original use since climatologists have always considered the phrase,  “climate change” a temperature-neutral, precipitation-neutral, could-go-either-way one, but as you know today it is one-tailed;   that is, “climate change” today has only  ONE meaning by those (often non-professionals) who use it;   that an anthropogenic WARMING of the climate is underway with its attendant effects on precipitation and life itself.

When the earth stopped warming some 15-20 years ago, the global warming phrase heard all over the media had to be supplanted with something else, of course.  I laugh, bitterly really, when I think of award-winning science geophys writer, Richard Kerr, of Sceince Mag, who wrote an article in Science, quoting the Hadley Center and such, titling his 2009 article about the hiatus in the rise in temperature, “What Happened to Global Warming?”

Of course, today such a title would not be allowed in Science Magazine.  But then, Richard Kerr could not have titled his article, “What Happened to Climate Change?” either, since climate change is always happening on this planet, probably the others like it.

Speaking of mud, or muddying things up, some scientists (Karl et al.)  are now claiming (in 2015)  there was NO HIATUS in the earth’s temperature;  that its been rising all along!  This astounding finding is due to some manipulations/”corrections” of existing data and use of African and other data not previously available.  You can read about this in summary form: Lost and Found_Sci 6-5-2015

This made me feel sad for the great scientists of the day, like Susan Soloman and others,  who have generated hypotheses about WHY the pause in the rise in temperatures has occurred, even publishing those hypotheses in high end journals like Science Mag or Nature.

Those folks are bound to be pretty embarrassed now since they may have been explaining nothing that was real.  It doesn’t get more embarrassing than that;  kind of like explaining N-Rays, that bogus radiation reported after the turn of the century by French scientist, Renee Blondlot, at Nance University (the “N” was for Nance).  Man, was Blonbdlot embarrassed when American physicist, Robert Wood, went to France to see “N-Rays” for himself and found that they were imaginary and reported them as so1.  N-Rays, though they had been “confirmed” in numerous studies, were soon gone from the scene, one of the greatest mass delusions known to science.

Was there REALLY no hiatus, that the Hadley Center in England, perhaps the foremost climate center in the world, was somehow misled when they were reporting a pause or hiatus in warming?  One thinks that the Karl et al 2015 report will get a LOT of scrutiny.  Stand by….

More TSTMS in the area today through most of the summer.  Hope one hits here in the Heights.  We’re falling behind our 3.5 inch or so average for July.

The End.

 

————————

1It was the story of American physicist, Robert Wood, as told in the 1982 book, Betrayers of the Truth: Fraud and Deceit in the Halls of Science,  by William Broad and Nicholas Wade, that partially inspired your Catalina Cloud Maven.com to go to Israel in 1986 to see the clouds for himself since,  in his experience after years of airborne cloud work at the University of Washington), the cloud reports emanating out of Israel were goofy, also the likely product of someone’s imagination.  Those Israeli cloud reports WERE goofy as found by your author (1988 pub), and independently by others (U of Tel Aviv).

Qiet day in “Lake” Catalina; LA Times 1981 climate change quote

Do we really need the letter, “u” in “quiet”?  Just checking…  “Lake” is for all the puddles around right now in Catalina after the nice half inch to inch rain the day before yesterday.

There used to be actual lakes in Catalina, btw, “Twin Lakes” they were called, as old timers know.  That’s why we have a boat store here, and quite a few street names with nautical themes, like “hawser”,  the name of a big marine rope for towing boats.

Before launching into the usual tedious cloud discussion and photo barage, those one of you that got to the bottom of yesterday’s blog may have noticed that it linked to a LONG article in the venerable Los Angeles Times reviewing media weather forecasting as it was in 1981.   A friend and met man, Mark Albright,  actually READ the whole thing, and alerted me to the following INTERESTING quote in that LA Times article, which I thought you should see, too.

I’ll frame this with the old Consumer Reports header, “Quote Without Comment”:

——————-
Robert Cowen (Christian Science Monitor) says there is too much gullibility in newspapers about the possibility of climatic disaster. Too many reporters listen to people who want to make a reputation with wild predictions. Thus, even the nation’s better daily newspapers periodically publish stories under such headlines as “There’s Doom in the Air” and “The Sun Goes Bonkers” and “New Dust Bowl Could Bring Starvation” and “Ice Age Coming? Chilling Thought for Humanity.”

“Every time there’s a drought or a long hot spell, I get swamped with calls from reporters asking, ‘This means the climate is changing, doesn’t it?’ says Diane Johnson, head of information services for the National Center for Atmospheric Research. “All the media want to know usually is . . . ‘Is there a new Ice Age coming?’,” Johnson says. “They hardly ever want to know the whys or the imponderables.”
—————–

Well, HERE, we want to know “why”, dammitall!  At least about cloud stuff.

Next rain not due in for at least a week, so enjoy the puddles while we have them.

Seems like undercutting dry air has ruined our chances for Cumulus-style isolated shower today.  Currently there is an elevated layer of Stratocumulus, tops above Ms. Mt. Lemmon. That layer will make for a nice sunrise, so be ready.  Other than that, just a few pretty, and small Cumulus, hold the ice,  today.

Yesterday’s clouds and why

“Balloon Over Fog” yesterday after sunrise, that was about the most exciting thing that happened yesterday.  No ice-in-clouds seen, which was a disappointment; no ice, no precip.  Tops never reached our usual ice-forming level of about -10 C (14 F), as you know; mainly hung around -5 C,  according to our TUS weather balloon soundings.  For people not familiar with weather balloons, that’s not a weather balloon over the fog in the photo below, btw.

7:35 AM.  A hot air balloon floats peacefully over an unusual March fog occurrence in Marana and Avra Valley.
7:35 AM. A hot air balloon floats peacefully over an unusual March fog occurrence in Marana and Avra Valley.  Altocu on top.  Don’t see the balloon?  See speck at sky/horizon interface center of photo.
DSC_4203
9:35 AM. Lots of water coming down the mountains again as shown by the glistening rock phenomena. Most normally dry washes and creeks should continue to run with another H2O infusion continuing the flows started by our gargantuan late January rain. Poppies looking good now, too.

Below, just examples of a postcard day in Catalina, AZ, those kind of days that make you glad you had one more day on this planet.

DSC_4222 DSC_4219 DSC_4218

The setting sun produced the normal “colorization” of the Catalinas that we savor, and when you look around in the desert at this time of day, even the treacherous teddy bear cholla has real beauty at this time of day.

DSC_4271 DSC_4274

The End

A nice cloud yesterday, not a great cloud yesterday; dramatic day ahead

The clouds were somewhat of a disappointment yesterday, not the stupendous photogenic day CM was expecting.

Maybe CM is total fraud, gets Big Oil funding and should be investigated by Rep. Grijalva as other weather folk are,   like the great Prof. and National Academy of Sciences Fellow,  Dr. Judy Curry,  a friend, and about whom I say on a link to her blog here, and from this blog’s very beginning, “The only link you will need.”  I said that because Judy2 is a top scientist, and is eminently fair in this polarized issue.

I am in real trouble!  Will remove that link immediately1 before our very own  “climate thought enforcer”,  Demo Rep. Grijalva, AZ,  finds it using a spy bot!  No telling how far down the influence chain it will go, maybe all the way down to here, where there is virtually no influence!

Back to clouds…….

Only late in the day did the delicate patterns expected to happen ALL DAY appear, again, with iridescence, always nice to see.

Here is your day for yesterday.  Its a pretty interesting movie.  Two thumbs up!

Oh, today’s weather?

The media, Bob,  and our good NWS, of course, are all over the incoming rain in great detail.  In fact, it will take you half a day to read all the warnings on this storm issued by our Tucson NWS.

So why duplicate existing information that might be only slightly different than the prevailing general consensus on the storm amounts, and then maybe be investigated for going against a consensus?   No, not worth it.   Best to be safe, not say things against The Machine.  (OK, maybe overdoing it here.)

In the meantime, the upper low off southern Cal and Baja has fomented an extremely strong band of rain, now lying across SE Cal and the Colorado River Valley where dry locations like Blythe are getting more than an inch over the past 24 h.   Same for northern Baja where some places are approaching 2-3 inches, great for them.  You can see how the rain is piling up in those locations here.  In sum, this is a fabulous storm for northern Mexico and the SW US, whether WE get our 0.915 inches, as foretold here, or not! Rejoice in the joy of others.  Looking for an arcus cloud fronting the main rainband, too, that low hanging cloud in a line that tells you a windshift is coming.  Still expecting, hoping, for thunder today to add to the wind and rain drama.

Also, the present cloud cover, as the trough ejects toward us, will deepen up and rain will form upwind and around here as that happens, so it won’t JUST be the eastward movement of the existing band.  This means you might be surprised by rain if you’re outside hiking and think the band itself is hours away.  Expecting rain to be in the area by mid-morning, certainly not later than noon, with the main blast (fronted by something akin to an arcus cloud) later in the day.  OK, just checked the U of AZ mod run from 11 PM AST, and that is what it is saying as well!  Wow.

Finally, if you care, yesterday’s clouds:

6:45 AM.  Your sunrise color, thanks to a line of broken Cirrus spissatus. Jet stream Cirrus streak, as a matter of fact.
6:45 AM. Your sunrise color, thanks to a line of broken Cirrus spissatus. Jet stream Cirrus streak, as a matter of fact, moving along at about 110 mph.
DSC_3916
9:47 AM.  Ruffle of Sc topped Mt. Lemmon, while strange clouds formed just upwind of them. These kinds of shapes suggest an inversion where the air resists further upward movement and a smoothing occurs at the top similar to a lenticular cloud.  Photo taken at the Golder Ranch Dr. cattleguard. which really doesn’t work that well, as the neighbors below here will tell you.
The 5 AM, March 1st,  balloon sounding for TUS.
The 5 AM, March 1st, balloon sounding for TUS.
9:53 AM.  Looks like a crab with four hooks.  How funny.
9:53 AM. Looks like a crab with four pinchers. How funny.
12:23 PM.  Shredding tops of small Cumulus like this indicate that the air is very dry just above their tops, and the shreds racing off to the right, indicate how fast the wind increased as you went upward.
12:23 PM. Shredding tops of small Cumulus like this indicate that the air is very dry just above their tops, and the shreds racing off to the right, indicate how fast the wind increased as you went upward.
2:58 PM.  Something is changing here.  Notice how the tops are bulging and not immediately being torn into shreds.
2:58 PM. Something is changing here. Notice how the tops are bulging and not immediately being torn into shreds.  The air was likely moistening above cloud tops, and the inversion holding the tops back, weakening as our storm gets a little closer.
4:19 PM.  A line of heavy Cumulus had formed to the west, indicating more moistening and "de-stabilization" of the air.
4:19 PM. A line of still larger Cumulus had formed to the west, indicating more moistening and “de-stabilization” of the air.  However, the upper low was not advancing toward us any longer and no further development occurred as stagnated,  ratcheting up  its rainband over eastern Cal and western AZ.  The TUS balloon sounding suggested tops were getting close to the normal ice-forming level here, -10 C, the slight inversion on the morning sounding at 13,000 feet above sea level, and the one likely to have caused those smooth morning clouds,  was gone.
6:07 PM.  Just before sunset from near Oracle where we took mom for her BD.
6:07 PM. Just before sunset from near Oracle where we took mom for her BD.  The heavier Cumulus clouds faded with the sun.  They will arise today!

Below, just some pretty patterns observed later in the day.  Click to see larger versions.

3:28 PM.  Cirrocumulus began to appear.
3:28 PM. Cirrocumulus began to appear.
3:36 PM.  Twisted, tortured Cirrus (fibratus?).
3:36 PM. Twisted, tortured Cirrus (fibratus?).
3:50 PM.  Another view of Cirrocumulus. Though these clouds are still composed of liquid droplets, the 5 PM TUS sounding suggests they were at about -30 C in temperature.  It happens.
3:50 PM. Another view of Cirrocumulus. Though these clouds are still composed of liquid droplets, the 5 PM TUS sounding suggests they were at about -30 C in temperature. It happens.
4:00 PM.  An incredibly complex array of Cirrocumulus overhead.  Due to perspective, its about the only view that you can really see how complex the patterns are.
4:00 PM. An incredibly complex array of Cirrocumulus overhead. Due to perspective, its about the only view that you can really see how complex the patterns are.
4:20 PM.  Some iridescence for you.
4:20 PM. Some iridescence for you.
6:00 PM.  At Oracle, AZ.
6:00 PM. At Oracle, AZ.
6:22 PM.  Finally, from the "Not taken while driving since that would be crazy" collection, this oddity.  Looks like an high temperature contrail (aka, "APIP"). but the trail seems to shoot up into the cloud Altocumulus cloud layer (or down out of it).  Have never seen this before.
6:22 PM. Finally, from the “Not-taken-while-driving-since-that-would-be-crazy-though-it-looks-like-it-was” collection, this oddity.  Looks like an high temperature aircraft contrail (aka, “APIP”) in the lower center.  And the trail seems to shoot up into the cloud Altocumulus cloud layer (or down out of it). Have never seen that kind of aircraft track before since it looks so steep! “High temperature”  here means that it formed at temperatures above about -35 C.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Whew, the end.

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1Not!!!!!!  I thought this was a good read about this deplorable new stage of “climate thought enforcement” now in progress.  It was brought to my attention by climate folk hero, friend, and big troublemaker, Mark Albright.  Wow, maybe Mark will be investigated, too!  Maybe I should excise his name….

2I remember, too, how cute she was when she worked my lab/office at the University of Washington in the mid-1980s, and thought about asking her out, to detract from a serious commentary here.   She was a Penn State grad student, not a U of WA employee;  still, to ask her out would have been untoward.   A human commentary like this, one about feelings and things, help boost blog attendance.

Glimpse of an Ice Age just ahead, but maybe not here in Catalina

Like scientific opinion1, climate change happens.  You may not know this, but only 15,000  to 20,000 years or so ago,  a blink of an eye in light years, the earth was gripped by an Ice Age.  No “hockey stick” handle back then!  Snow and ice piled up over a kilometer deep on top of the Space Needle in Seattle.  And the polar ice cap extended to places like Cahoga Falls, Ohio, while burying the Great Lakes, which didn’t exist.

NOW, of course, we’re in an “Interglacial” period called the Holocene, where its nice and toasty, for the most part, the way we like it as a people.  Really, human beans do not like Ice Ages; they can really die off in a hurry2 and have to repopulate themselves afterwards!  Well, I suppose that part might be fun.

The forecast models are foretelling something in the way of a flashback in the way of a pressure pattern over nearly ALL of North America that might well have been the average pressure pattern day after day during an Ice Age (there have been many), the last one, at its peak, not surprisingly, was called, “the Last Glacial Maximum.”  I’d call it that, too.

Here are a coupla panels from the venerable Enviro Can computer model with its FOUR panels of weather.  Take a look at the pressure patterns in the right side panels, you may have to use a magnifying glass, both showing the predicted sea level pressure pattern.  These forecast maps are astounding to C-M and will,  therefore, be likewise to you, too:  a high pressure area so expansive with cold dense air that it covers millions of square miles, even more in square kilometers, maybe billions, since the kilometer is a smaller Euro unit of measurement that makes everything seem farther away when you’re driving to someplace and the distance is in Euros.  (hahaha, just kidding folks).

Valid December 29th at 5 AM AST.  Giant high pressure cell has formed in the Canadian Northwest Territories, and its leading edge is affect the US from COAST TO COAST!
Valid Monday, December 29th at 5 AM AST.  Giant high pressure cell has formed in the Canadian Northwest Territories, and its leading edge is affecting the US from COAST TO COAST!  I am pumped, don’t high pressure regions this big this too often in NA.  In eastern Asia, e,g, China, where all our stuff is made, and Siberia, this big a high is SOS in the wintertime.  So, we’re seeing a bit of eastern Asia wintertime conditons, too.

 

Valid just 24 h later, 5 AM AST, December 30th.  Temperatures in some mountain valley locations in MT could be as low as -60 F.  NE flow aloft, behind the upper low, will provide exceptionally dry air above the surface layer, and that will allow whatever "heat", and we use this word, advisedly, to efficiently escape from the surface after nightfall.  So, clear skies, dry above you, no wind (as in a valley) down, down, down plummets the temperature.
Valid just 24 h later, 5 AM AST, Tuesday, December 30th. Temperatures in some mountain valley locations in MT could be as low as -60 F. NE flow aloft, behind the upper low, will provide exceptionally dry air above the surface layer, and that will allow whatever “heat”, and we use this word, advisedly, to efficiently escape from the surface after nightfall. So, clear skies, dry above you, no wind (as in a valley) down, down, down plummets the temperature.

So, we have an historical treat coming when the average temperatures every day in the US were 15-20 F lower during the Last Glacial Maximum!  (Ugh.) The oceans were at lot smaller then, too, because a lot that water was piled up on top of the Space Needle, etc.

You might have noticed in these panels that the Ice Age-like conditions are plummeting rapidly southward, and big trough is starting to curl over the interior of the Pac NW.  Yes, since we are still in the Trough Bowl, that curling air pattern, containing frigid air is headed toward Arizona, and will be here or not in early January.

Why a bifurcated statement?

Models are confused.  Two model runs, only 6 h apart (5 PM and 11 PM AST last evening have the low center aloft for the SAME time, January 1st at 5 AM AST over a) Pebble Beach Golf Course, Carmel, CA; b) over Gallup, NM!  How funny, outrageous,  and frustrating is that?  See below:

Ann 2014122506_CON_GFS_500_HGT_WINDS_174
Valid at 5 AM AST, January 1st, New Year’s Bowl Day. With the amount of cold air with this system it would likely be snowing in lower elevation places north of SFO. Also, it would rain on the Duck-Seminole bowl game in Pasadena, CA.
Also Valid for January 1st at 5 AM AST.  But which one will be right?
Also Valid for January 1st at 5 AM AST. But which one will be right?

 

========Learning Module=================

But, we are “gifted” with an opportunity to learn about chaos in the atmosphere, aren’t we, that is, those times when little errors can lead to huge differences in future states.

So, to resolve this weather conflict, and lose a few more readers, we go to the NOAA spaghetti factory, and examine the “Lorenz plot” for this time period and see which one is looney:

Valid 12 h before the maps above, New Year's Eve, December 31st at 5 PM AST.
Valid 12 h before the maps above, New Year’s Eve, December 31st at 5 PM AST.

Well its pretty obvious that the goofy one is the one having the low over SFO and vicinity.  Most of the circulation pattern has a center in Arizona somewhere.   But this interpertation means that extremely cold air is likely to invade at least the northern half of Arizona as January begins.  The good side is that there would be substantial, and later, reservoir filling snows in the mountains, and a good chance of substantial rain here in Catalina as the year begins.

The end of maybe solving a prognostic conundrum.

 Today’s weather

Well, its all “out there” by your favorite weathercaster,  and they all do a pretty darn good job, and so no use hacking over what’s already known by everybody except to say that the jet streak at 18,000 feet (500 mb), that core that circumscribes precip from no precip areas during our winters, passes over Catalina (our area) around 5 PM AST according the latest model run.

And that’s, too,  when the models expect the first rain around Catalina to arrive.  As before, this ain’t gonna be too much unless we get real lucky,  top amount likely below  a quarter on an inch between 5 PM today and the end of possible showers later tomorrow afternoon.

And of course, there’ll be lots of wind, maybe gusts to 40 mph today, a windshift to the NW here when front goes by overnight, with a temperature drop of about 10 degrees almost simultaneously.  Expect a frosty Lemmon on Friday morning when the clouds part.

You can follow today’s developments today best from IPS MeteoStar’s satellite and radar loop.

The interesting part is that echoes and clouds will appear out of nowhere as that big trough expands southward, cooling the air aloft, allowing cloud tops to rise to ice-forming levels.  Also, if you go there now, you will see giant clear slots between those middle and high clouds that passed over last evening until right now (Ac castellanus visible to SSW now), and a tiny band in west central Arizona, and the echo-producing clouds in the NW part of the State.  Those unstable-loooking clouds will be gone soon.; they’re more from tropical locations.

Keep an eye on that little band in the middle; it may turn into a bona fide rainband as clouds add onto it, widens and thickens.  That’s probably what’s going to bop us this evening with rain.

Expecting to see a nice lenticular cloud downstream from the Catalinas today.  They’re common AHEAD of the jet core since the air is much more stable then, resists lifting and so you get cloud pancakes that hover over the same spot.  How you log them if you see any.

Will we see our usual, “clearing before the storm”?  This is when middle and high clouds depart, there’s a big clearing followed by an inrush of low, precipitating clouds.  Not sure, but will look for it if that little band of middle clouds ends up as only that as it passes by today.  The invasion of low clouds would follow that.  Too much speculating today!

 Yesterday’s clouds

3:42 PM.  Cirrus fibratus thickening to Altostratus toward the horizon, invade sky as big trough approaches, upper ridge skiddadles.
3:42 PM. Cirrus fibratus thickening to Altostratus toward the horizon, invade sky as big trough approaches, upper ridge skiddadles.
DSC_0992
3:50 PM. Looking at Cirrus and CIrrostratus advancing over the Catalinas.
DSC_0999
5:20 PM. Your yesterday’s sunset. Heavy ice cloud shield advances on southern Arizona, Cirrostratus with Altostratus in the distance, the thickening NOT due to perspective. Hope you caught that.

Finally, the End.  I’m sure you’re glad, too, if you got this far!

——————————-

1Remmeber back in the late 1960s and early 1970s when it was widely believed that a new ice age may be at hand because the earth had been cooling off for a coupla decades?  It was also being pointed out that an ice age could onset in a hundred to a few hundred years from past ice age onsets!  Yikes.  Scary times on earth then when the Beatles were popular.

2Of course, if you were to die in an Ice Age, you might end up being well-preserved and then people would see what you looked like, the hair style you had, tattoos, etc, as we’ve seen with a few dead people that have been found from those glacial times.  I guess that’s something positive to say about cold times.

 

 

Clouds drop 0.01 inches in Catalina! Nice sunrise, too, yesterday

Of course, only CLOUDS can rain, so the title is a little silly, but it sounded more dramatic like that.  This is the first measurable rain, it fell between 9 and 10 PM here,  in EIGHT weeks!

And you could sure smell that special fragrance from the ground and desert vegetation as soon as you stepped outside to do your exercises this morning!

Nice sunrise yesterday morning to start the day.  In  case you missed, of course, I am there for you.

BTW, in the captions below, I have included for you a discussion of climate issues in a kind of stream-of-consciousness format.  OK, its a rant that came upon me out of the blue.  CM sometimes gets mad and loses control for a few seconds;  need to get some counseling maybe…

6:56 AM.  Altocumulus perlucidus.  Say no more.
6:56 AM. Altocumulus perlucidus. Say no more.  Might be a lenticular sort of on the right.  Not the classic almond shape, but it did hang on for a long time in that spot.  Say no more.

Kind of gray after that in Altostratus with an undercutting, lower layer of Altocumulus by mid-afternoon darkening the sky up some more. Some virga here and there with sprinkles-its-not-drizzle reaching the ground by late afternoon in the Catalina area. Here is your cloudscape for later in the day, very Seattle like during approaching storms that actually rain lightly on you for hours:

10:35 AM.  Classic Altostratus translucidus, ice path in cloud all the way to the sun.
10:35 AM. Classic Altostratus translucidus, ice path in cloud all the way to the sun.
10:39 AM, after walk down a slope to give YOU a view to the southwest, classic Altostratus as seen when not looking toward the sun.  Hard to tell if its translucidus or opacus looking this way.   By the way, even when you can see the sun, As clouds are thousands of feet thick, tops usually at Cirrus clouds levels.
10:39 AM, after walk down a slope to give YOU a view to the southwest, classic Altostratus as seen when not looking toward the sun. Hard to tell if its translucidus or opacus looking this way. By the way, even when you can see the sun, As clouds are thousands of feet thick, tops usually at Cirrus clouds levels.
1:26 PM.  Here come the lower, flocculent masses of Altocumulus clouds, ones composed of droplets.
1:26 PM. Here come the lower, flocculent masses of Altocumulus clouds, ones composed of droplets.
3:15 PM.  It was all downhill for cloud bottoms after the Altocumulus moved in.  Now, the bottoms are lumpy and much larger, casting them as Stratocumulus.  There was some virga and very light rainshowers reaching the ground at this time, too.
3:15 PM. It was all downhill for cloud bottoms after the Altocumulus moved in. Now, the bottoms are lumpy and much larger, casting them as Stratocumulus. There was some virga and very light rainshowers reaching the ground at this time, too.  A few drops fell at 3:11 PM.  Only the great cloud mavens of all time would have noticed.  Lasted maybe one minute.
3:15 PM again.  Lot going on here, so I thought I would point things out, in particular for my fellow meteorologist Mark A at the U of WA who winters in the Tuscon smog plume.  Mark is a super sleuth when it comes to snowpacks, you know, was fired as Assist State Climo for Washington when he demonstrated, along with two faculty members, that the claims of gigantic snowpack losses due to global warming (now repackaged as "climate change") were hugely exaggerated, like the result of cherry picking a cold snowy beginning and ending with a run of El Nino winters, ones that lead to less snowpack in the Cascades of Washington and Oregon.
3:15 PM again. Lot going on here, so I thought I would point out some things on a gray day, in particular for my fellow meteorologist Mark A at the U of WA who winters in the Tuscon smog plume. Mark is a super sleuth when it comes to snowpacks, but maybe doesn’t have so much moxie when it comes to smog. Mark, as you know may now, was fired as Assist State Climo for Washington when he demonstrated and kept complaining, along with two faculty members, that the claims of gigantic snowpack losses due to global warming (now repackaged as “climate change1“) in the Cascade Mountains were hugely exaggerated, likely the result of cherry picking a cold snowy beginning and ending with a run of El Nino winters, ones that lead to less snowpack in the Cascades of Washington and Oregon.   Such cherry-picking led to a wonderful suggestion of huge declines that has led to a bounty of funding and continued employment, promotions, accolades, citations by  Big Media, etc, because such claims, even if exaggerated and untrue, are what we want to hear! And, no one ever got a job for claiming they can’t find any sign of global warming, or only a little one, but rather are vilified for even suggesting exaggerations in the “global warming” domain.  Mark, BTW, continuing his sleuthing has recently shown that similar claims for declines in snowpacks in Montana near Glacier National Park,  have not been decreasing but rather increasing.  He’ll get HELL for this one!   So, more vilification is likely ahead for poor Mark, as well as more smog.

What’s ahead, besides the Big Pac 12 Fubball Game on Friday evening?

More clouds.   Maybe a few more sprinkles especially tomorrow after dawn.  See nice map below from the U of WA Dept of Atmospheric Meteorology (original colors on the map below by that big troublemaker, Mark Albright)

Ann 2014120415_MM5
Valid for 8 AM AST, tomorrow morning, which is Thursday, in case you’ve lost count of the days of the week.  The arrow denotes an upper level trough, or bend in the winds. Ahead of the bend (sometimes referred to as vorticity, or curling air, or red curly air) the air tends to rise producing cloud sheets, whereas behind red curly air, the air descends. See Seymour Hess, Introduction to Theoretical Meteorology, 1959, Florida State University Press.  As you can see by the arrow, that slight bend in the winds is about to pass over your house in Catalina, and the U of Az model output from last evening sees a little rain here with that passage.  Yay!  Also note suggestion of bifurcated jet flow with a minor maximum in wind (slight bunching of contours) to the south of us, nearly always required for rain here in the cool season.

The End

 

Stationary rainbow sets duration record, maybe

Had another rainbow from those cloud “warriors” we call Cumulonimbus on the Catalinas.  But, “If traces are your thing, Catalina is king!” as we recorded but a trace of rain again while soaking rains poured down just a couple of miles away on the Catalinas, to form a sentence with too much punctuation and a sentence within a sentence1.

More interesting perhaps to some, this modest rainbow formed just after 5 PM yesterday toward the Charouleau Gap, as seen from Catalina, and was still in almost the same spot after 30 minutes.  Have never seen that before since both the sun and the showers are drifting along and so the rainbow should change position.

First, in today’s cloud story, the strangely believe it rainbow part:

5:12 PM.  Rainbow first spotted toward the Gap.  Cumulonimbus cloud not sporting ice at top; ice is below flat top due to weak updrafts that allow the ice crystals to subside.
5:12 PM. Rainbow first spotted toward the Gap. Cumulonimbus cloud not sporting ice at top; ice is below flat top due to weak updrafts that allow the ice crystals to subside while the top remains mostly liquid appearing.  The smoothness on the side of the cloud above the rainbow  is due to ice particles
DSC_0002
5:42 PM. While the observer has moved some few hundred yards, the rainbow has stayed pretty much where it was after 30 min. A course in optics would be required to explain this and that’s not gonna happen (accounting for the sun’s movement, the rain, and the observer’s movement).

 

 
 

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The whole day represented several phases, the early, spectacular eruption of clouds on the Catalinas as it started to warm up under clear skies,  those low bases topping the mountains again indicating stupendous amounts of water are going to be in them when they grow up, the rapid appearance of “first ice” just after 10 AM, the heavy showers and cooling on the mountains and here (little thunder heard), the clearing due to the cooling, the warming, the rebuilding of the Cu on the mountains, and new showers–the rainbow was part of the second growth phase, and then the gradual die out of the Cu as sunset occurred.

Huh. I just realized that what happened to our temperatures yesterday was like a mini-sequence of the earth’s climate over the past 200,000 years or so, the prior Ice Age in the morning temps, the warm Eemian Interglacial as it warmed up, the last ice age when the cooling wind from the mountain showers hit, then the warm Holocene when the clearing and warming started up again in the afternoon!  Cool, warm, cool, warm.  Below, the Catalina temperature record that emulates earth’s climate over the past 200,000 years, beginning with next to last “ice age.”  I can’t believe how much information I am passing along today!  What a day you had yesterday!

Mock climate change for the earth's past, oh, 200, 000 years or so as indicated in yesterday's Catalina/Sutherland Heights temperature scale.
Mock climate change for the earth’s past, oh, 200, 000 years or so as indicated in yesterday’s Catalina/Sutherland Heights temperature scale.  But, we have a LOT of days like yesterday’s in the summertime, but only now after 7 summers has it hit me how it mimics our earth’s “recent” past climate.

 

 

Cloud Alert:  Yesterday might have been the last day for summer rain here.  U of AZ mod from last night has plenty of storms, but we’re on the edge of the moist plume, and those storms take place just a hair east of us it says.  So, while they may be on the Catalinas today, unless we get lucky, they’ll stay over there.  Drier air creeps in tomorrow, too.

Here is the rest of our day in clouds, from the beginning, even if its not that interesting.  In the interest of efficiency, you’d do a lot better by going to the U of AZ time lapse site to see all the wonderful things that happened yesterday, instead of plunking along one by one as you have to do here.  (PS:  Some functions in WordPress not working, would not allow some captions to be entered as usual.)

9:21 AM.  This tall thin Cumulus cloud was a reliable portent for yesterday's early storms on the mountains.  It just shot up!
9:21 AM. This tall,  thin Cumulus cloud was a reliable portent for yesterday’s early storms on the mountains. It just shot up!

 

DSC_0124

DSC_0130

DSC_0132-1
11:57 AM.  Thunder and downpours are widespread on the Catalinas.
11:57 AM. Thunder and downpours are widespread on the Catalinas.

 

 

DSC_0150
2:46 PM. After the long clearing, Cumulus begin to arise on the Catalinas again.
DSC_0005-1
5:46 PM. A pretty, and isolated Cumulus congestus with a long mostly water plume ejecting toward the NW. Some ice can be seen falling out of that ejecting shelf. Now here’s a situation where an aircraft measuring the ice output from such a cloud can miss it because its formed as the turret subsides downstream, and most of the ice is substantially below its top, and under the shelf. If you cruised along the top of the shelf, you would miss most of the ice and measure ice particle concentrations that are much lower than what the cloud put out.
DSC_0017-1
6:17 PM. This same quasi-stationary cloud with its long shelf, still shedding ice just downwind of the cloud stem, is about to disappear. Note, too, that the ice fall quits after awhile going downstream even though cloud top temperature is the same for quite a distance. The ice was actually formed at lower temperatures in the protruding turret, not at the temperature of the shelf, which apparently were too high for ice to form. Also, cloud droplet sizes shrink from those in the protruding turret as evaporation takes a stronger hold. Larger droplet sizes are associated with greater ice formation at a given temperature.
DSC_0015
6:12 PM. Like aspen leaves in the fall, but every day, our clouds change color as the sunsets. Here’s another memorable site, not only due to the color, but how tall and thin these Cumulus clouds are, showing that the atmosphere was still extremely unstable over the depth of these clouds, probable 2-3 km deep.

 

The End.

——————————-

1Hahah-these are just a couple of the grammatical gaffes I actually know I’ve done!

Snowbirds may head back to Arizona as low temperature records fall in the eastern US in a few days

Forgetting about yesterday’s unforecast subdued afternoon convection hereabouts after about 1 PM), lets talk about the misery of others; the little crybabies that leave Arizona in the summertime, decimating its economy, so that they can be cooler and “happy” in northern climes (while dodging hail and tornadoes, we might add).

Well, how about them birdies being really COLD before very long, due to record breaking low July temperatures?  Yes, that’s right, what’s left of the “polar vortex” will once again, due to global warming, of course, spin out of control and down into the northern US in just about 5-7 days.   And with it, long term July low temperature records will fall in the eastern US. Count on it.

So, once again, as some scientists alleged last winter,  global warming will actually cause cooling.  (Almost everything that happens is due to GW these days, as we know. (“GW”, BTW,  now repackaged in the catch all, temperature-neutral phrase, “Climate Change”,  during the past few years because, globally, it stopped getting warmer way back in ’98, and when the years began to pile up without global warming, scientists had to find another phrase to hang their mistaken hats on.  (Where was the usual scientific “caution” back then?)

HOWEVER, continuing on with this harangue, and being a “lukewarmer”,  we must watch out that the coming big El Nino doesn’t release a spring-loaded,  pent up release of global heat.  Might well happen, so don’t give up on “GW” quite yet; hold some cards on that question for another few years.

And, of course, if there is a step jump up in global temperatures just ahead, the phrase, “climate change” will be dumped by scientists and media for “global warming” again.  Count on it, #2.

But, I digress, mightily, mainly due to yesterday’s cloud disappointments.

—————————-

Not in a great mood after yesterday’s bust, as you can tell, except for that strong thunderstorm that pummeled the north side of the Catalinas beginning about 11:30 AM, that was pretty cool; had continuous thunder for about an hour and a half, too. Dan Saddle up on Oracle Ridge got 0.63 inches, but you can bet 1-2 inches fell somewhere up there.

I was so happy then.

I thought the “Great Ones” would arise upwind of us in the direction of Pusch Ridge, but no.  Those clouds got SMALLER as the afternoon wore on, it was incredible, and by sunset they were gone with only trashy debris clouds of Altocumulus and Altostratus cumulonimbogenitus from great storms in Mexico drifting over our sky.  Even the sunset was disappointing.

Well, that 3:15 am to 3:30 am little shower this morning than dropped 0.15 inches here in the Heights, and 0.24 inches down there at the Bridge by Lago del Oro gave a psych boost1 that got me here on the keyboard.

10:55 AM.  Nearly invisible veil of ice crystals begin to fall from an older Cumulus congestus turret.  This was about an hour and a half ealier than the prior day, indicating that the Cu tops were reaching that level sooner than the prior day, suggesting bigger things (I thought).  When you see this happening this early, you also look for an "explosion" some massive turret to suddenly blast out of these developing clouds, and that did happen within about half an hour after this.
10:55 AM. Nearly invisible veil of ice crystals begin to fall from an older Cumulus congestus turret. This was about an hour and a half ealier than the prior day, indicating that the Cu tops were reaching that level sooner than the prior day, suggesting bigger things (I thought). When you see this happening this early, you also look for an “explosion” some massive turret to suddenly blast out of these developing clouds, and that did happen within about half an hour after this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10:55 AM.  Close up, in case you don't believe me.
10:55 AM. Close up, in case you don’t believe me.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11:04 AM.
11:04 AM.

 

7:33 PM.  Your sunset.
7:33 PM. Your sunset.

Today?  Check here.  Once again, mod expects early Cumulonimbus on The Lemmon, then groups of thunderstorms move in during the evening (as was more or less predicted yesterday, but didn’t happen.)  Will go with mod again, though, because I would like that to happen.

The weather way ahead

We’ve talked about cold air, now to balance things off, how about a discussion of the warm air ahead?  Real hot air.

Was blown away by the spaghetti outputs from last night for the period of about two weeks from now.  You can see the whole package from the NOAA spaghetti factory here. Below, our weather in 12-15 days, usually beyond confident predictions, but not here:

201407221700 spag_f288_nhbg

Valid at 5 PM AST July 22nd. Massive blob of really hot air settles in over the western half of the US.  In this map, the most reliable long term predictions are over the western half of the US and over the Saharan Desert (indicated by the lack of lines in those two areas.  A lot of lines means the weather pattern is pretty unpredictable.)

 

Valid at 5 PM July 22nd.  Massive upper level blob of really hot air sits over the entire West!
Valid at 5 PM July 25th. Massive upper level blob of really hot air continues to dominate the western half of the US.

&

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The hot blob of air should lead to record HIGH temperatures all over the place in those days beginning around the 20-25th of July.  Rainfall here?  Indeterminant.  If the high center sits over us, it might just be hot, real hot, but dry.

But, if the configuration aloft is as shown in the second plot, it could be very wet as tropical disturbances shift northwestward from Mexico into Arizona.

Sorry, can’t do much with precip from these,  I don’t think.

The End, and covering all the possibilities, CM

====================================
1Paraphrasing, the song for weathermen, those speaking to clouds; “Rain on me, when I’m downhearted….”

Signal in the spaghetti; updated with climate info from Science mag just now!

Here it is:

Valid two week from now, Thursday, 5 AM, March 20th.
Valid two weeks from now, Thursday, 5 AM, March 20th.  Massive trough, at last, settles into the West for awhile, more in keeping with climo.   Keep jackets at the ready.  Rain?  Dunno yet, but probably on the correct side of 50-50 beginning around the 17th.  Changes!  Warm and dry for a coupla days, followed by a parade of troughs, quite a few minor ones over the next week or so, before the Big One forms.  Above, this is a VERY strong signal in the spaghetti for two weeks out, and so got pretty excited when I saw it, as you are now, too.  So, when mid-March arrives, get ready!

Was going to close with this NWS forecast for Catalina (might be updated by the time you link to it), but then saw just now that Saturday, the day a cold, dry trough is over us, it’s predicted to be 76 F here in Catalina,  too warm.  I would prepare for upper 60s.

Canadian model has even had rain near us at times as this trough goes by on Saturday, but only here in the 11th hour (from yesterday’s 5 PM AST run) has the US model indicated that the core of the trough and rain near us on Saturday, as the Canadian one had for a few days before that.  Hmmm…

The fact that any trough is ending up stronger than it was predicted, as the one on Saturday,  is a good sign of being close to the bottom (farthest S lattitude) of the “trough bowl”, that location where troughs like to come and visit.   So, maybe this is a precursor for us, this unexpected little cool snap on Saturday.  Maybe climatology is beginning to work its wonders at last in the West.

Powerful storms begin affecting the interior of the West and Great Basin in 10 days, and that pretty much marks the time when the winds here start to pick up to gusty at times as strong low centers develop to the north of us, and the major jet stream subsides to the south toward us.

It will be the end of the warm winter era for us, too.  While cold settles in the West, it will mean very toasty weather back East from time to time, something those folks will greatly enjoy.

———————–Climate issue commentary; skip if you’re happy with the climate as it is now—————————-

As you likely know, much of the upper Midwest had one of its coldest winters ever, and just a few days ago Baltimore (locally, “Ballimore”, as in “Ballimore Orioles”) had its lowest measured temperature EVER in March, 4 F!

“RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
0930 AM EST TUE MAR 04 2014
…DAILY AND MONTHLY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS SET AT BALTIMORE
MD…
A DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 4 DEGREES WAS SET AT BALTIMORE MD TODAY…BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 5 SET BACK IN 1873.
THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 4 DEGREES FROM TODAY WAS ALSO THE
LOWEST MINUMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDED ON ANY DAY IN MARCH FOR
BALTIMORE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH WAS 5 DEGREES ON 4 MARCH 1873.

(Thanks to Mark Albright for this official statement; emphasis by author)

If you’ve followed some media reports, the exceptional cold of this winter has been attributed to global warming, a hypothesis that has been questioned by climo Big Whigs.  However, if it is right (which even lowly C-M doubts), parts of the upper Midwest may become uninhabitable due to cold in a warming world, quite a weather “oxymoron.”

Also, if you’ve been hearing about weather extremes and global warming (AKA, “climate change”) you really should read this by a scientist I admire, Roger Pielke, Jr., at Colorado State Univsersity, his rebuttal to a Whitehouse science adviser’s characterization of his testimony before Congress about weather extremes (they’re not increasing).

What seems to be happening in climate science is the opposite of what our ideals are.  Our conglomerate of climate models did not see the present “puzzling” halt to global warming over the past 15 years or so as CO2 concentrations have continued to rise.  However, instead of being chastened/humbled by this failure, some climate scientists seem emboldened and only are shouting louder about the danger ahead.   Presently we are struggling with a number of hypotheses about why the hiatus has occurred (e.g., drying of the stratosphere which allows more heat to escape the earth, more aerosols in the stratosphere in which incoming sunlight is dimmed some as it was due to the Pinatubo eruption in 1991, ocean take up of extra heat, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current slowing down, causing northern hemisphere continents to cool off.)

UPdating at 8:28 AM:  This from the “current”issue of Science (Feb 28th) about the Global Warming Hiatus (GWH):  It might be due to the cold waters of the eastern Pacific, now reigning year after year almost for the whole time of the “hiatus.” (BTW, you’ve heard of it, haven’t you, that hiatus in rising global temperatures?  If not, write to your local media sources about this.  Its pretty important.)  Science mag is $10 if you want to buy it off the newstand.

What ever the cause of the puzzling hiatus in warming, it was not accounted for in our best models right from the get go, and so, naturally there SHOULD be caution on everyone’s part until we know what happened and can get it right in those many climate models..dammitall!    Unless we know what done it, how else can we have confidence that they are going to be very accurate 100 years out????

———————————————end of climate issue/rant module————————–

Here are a couple of nice sunset scenes from March 4th, that same day it was SO COLD in Ballimore, these to help you cool off personally after I got you pretty worked up with climate issues.  Hope I didn’t spoil your day, and try not to be mad at work thinking about it.

DSC_0067
6:19 PM. Row of Cirrus lenticulars appears below CIrrus/Altostratus layer. I think they were too high to be Altocumulus lenticulars, and dissipated into ice puffs right after this shot.
DSC_0075
6:31 PM. Cirrus spissatus (thicker parts) with strands from Cirrus uncinus under lit by the sun.

 

Climate kerfluffle over global warming and the eastern severe winter

Most of us can easily understand the reasoning behind the bounty of media stories and pronouncements by some scientists/White House ones even,  describing how global warming has led to such severe winters over the past few years on various continents. It makes perfect sense that as it gets warmer, winters will be colder, more severe in some regions, while other areas, like the SW this year get a global warming face plant.

Furthermore, extreme regional temperature extremes like the ones we have seen in the US this winter have NEVER happened before since 1976-77, and, oh yeah, 1962-63…oops, I guess 1983 had a bad winter back East, too.  OK, maybe “NEVER” is too strong… Tree rings have some bad stuff in them, too, before the historical records begin.  Lets just say that the  “NEVER” above refers to the last 12 months maybe.

Well, as I posted last time, Mike et al (his friends) posted a letter to the uppity journal, Science, saying that attributing these kinds of extremes to global warming was based on evidence that was “not compelling” (i. e, in normal speak, BS, or likely BS1.)

But that’s not the way the Press is treating these claims.

Mike is kind of a complainer, well, actually, I never actually heard him complain about anything, professionally or otherwise whilst at the University of Washington, but anyway, continuing, he sent  to our weather e-mail list at that institution kind of a complaint.  He observed that his comment in Science questioning the evidence presented in support of the claim that global warming is causing the severe winter in the East, was not getting much play in the Press while the proponents of a not-a-compelling-theory were getting a lot.

Here’s what Mike sent out to us, FYI:

Here’s a new posting on Andy Revkin’s dot. earth following up on our letter that appeared in Science last Friday.  The clarification at the end of our posting is in response to statements in postings of Jennifer Francis and Charles Greene on dot.earth, alleging that we had misrepresented the Francis and Vavrus article in our Science letter.

There’s an article about Jennifer Francis’ work on the NPR blog 2/16.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/02/16/277911739/warming-arctic-may-be-causing-jet-stream-to-lose-its-way

She appeared on CBS yesterday and her work was featured on the BBC News web site
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-26023166
    

In contrast, the press has shown very little interest in our Science letter. In a quick look on Google just now I found only one blog (besides Cliff’s and Judy Curry’s) that refers to it.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/02/16/Record-Cold-February-Sending-Global-Warming-Conspiracists-into-Deep-Freeze

Kevin Trenberth and Jennifer Francis were interviewed yesterday on Chris Mooney’s program, which will be aired this Friday.

I will keep you posted.

Mike

The link leads to Wikipedia and other links there; Mike has gotten NUMEROUS awards for his work; none of those are from oil companies, at least that I know of.)

I emphasized “Mike’s” observation (not his real first name, BTW) about one-sided media coverage by using a larger and red font because, you see, Mike came down in yesterday’s rain.

By that I mean, he is an idealist, one that sincerely believes that the Press will cover a story evenly and will give both sides a fair hearing in the debate about global warming/climate change.  Mike, BTW,  is FULLY on board the global warming band wagon, as are his pals; they just wanted to point out that some claims are not well supported and are going too far; that’s all.

But we streetwise folk remember the words of Seattle’s Queensryche, 1989:

“I used to trust the media to tell me the truth, tell us the truth!  Revolution calling, revolution calling!2

Balanced media coverage on climate?  Telling the public in large fonts about the “puzzling hiatus” in global warming over the past 15 years or so, as it was termed in Science recently?

Not gonna happen in these polarized days of the shifting polar vortex, as the latter has always done from time to time.

Let’s look ahead in weather to see if any other extreme weather news sits before us in the models.  Then  imagine how it might be covered by the media.

Below, from our best model, and from late yesterday’s global data, something awesome has shown up and its been showing up for a few model runs of late, giving it enhanced credibility:

A GIGANTIC and terribly severe mass of cold air is foretold to extrude into most of the US from the Arctic in about 8-10 days. NOAA spaghetti plots VERY supportive of this very bad cold wave).  Below, the awesome and annotated in excitment sea level map from NOAA WRF-GFS based on the global data crunch at 5 PM AST yesterday:

Valid at 5 PM AST, February 28th.
Valid at 5 PM AST, February 28th, only nine days away!  Arizona still toasty. Word deliberately misspelled here to see if you’re paying attention, one of the many innovations here at cloud-maven.

 

So, how will another astounding round of cold air be treated by the media, and certain incautious scientists? Let us imagine newspaper headlines on March 1st, 2014:

“Globally-warmed polar vortex squeezed out of Arctic again onto International Falls, MN!

“Numerous low temperature records set yet again against the backdrop of a warming world!”

Later in the stories we might read:

“Demographic experts warn that If the earth warms anymore, and winters continue to be more and more severe in the US, illegal migration will be INTO Mexico, not out of it.”

Or…..

“Citrus growers to move crops to southern Mexico and central America to escape the warmer world of more severe winters.”

———————–End of imagination module—————

What in the cards for Catalina weather in early March?

Still looks pretty good, better than 50-50 IMO,  for measurable rain here in Catalina during the first week in March.  See below:

Valid at 5 PM AST March 1st.  Green areas denote regions where the model thinks it has rained during the prior 12 h.  Cold wave in progress in eastern half of US.
Valid at 5 PM AST March 1st. Green areas denote regions where the model thinks it has rained during the prior 12 h. Really bad cold wave in progress in eastern half of US.  Will Lake Superior ice over?

 

The End.

—————

1Shouldn’t be taken as fact, just an assertion at this time, a hypothesis waiting for confirmation.

2From the concept album about drug mind control, “Operation: Mindcrime”, released in 1989 when the writer was quite the lefty.   But then I heard that NPR interview with David Horowitz and Peter Collier, former editors of the rad lib Ramparts Mag in the 1960s and 70s and how they had come around over about a ten year period to be able to vote for Ronnie Reagan and I went, “Huh?”  “How is that possible?”  It would be like Bob Dylan singing songs about being “saved”  in the Christian sense.  Not even imaginable.