Been dreaming about a white Lemmon for quite awhile, ever since the New Year’s Eve snowstorm here. Finally got one yesterday, as we saw. Here are a few extra Lemmons for you:
(includes photo of a small, cute dog)
Looking closer, I hope you recorded the slight fall streaks (fallstreifen, ger.) in the scene above. It would have been quite an important observation for you to have acquired since these small clouds had not shown ice prior to this time. See below for the VERY delicate trails emanating from this Cumulus mediocris cloud; look between and above the orangish rock faces on the top of Sam Peak and a bit to the left:
The weather ahead, way out there
Next rain chance in about a week. Looks like May will start out hot, but “too hot not to cool down”, to quote Louis Prima and Keely Smith doing the Porter songbook, and pretty much that cool down before the month is hardly underway. I am sure lingering snowbirds, not wanting to have their feathers singed, will be glad to receive this news.
How can we say that with any acuity?
Check the spaghetti! Looky below at how troughy the flow is by about the 8th of May (red lines dipping toward the Equator along the West Coast). No extreme heat then, just normal warmth or below average “warmth.” This is a circulation pattern that persists, too. And with “troughy”, there’s always the chance of a rogue rain.
The author has made two claims. Let us look at the evidence, the first of which was obtained yesterday morning in support of one of those. A hiker/walker, the author met, we will call him, “Bob”, though it seems doubtful that’s his real name since he had quite a strong northern European accent, said there was no running water in the Sutherland Wash, “only dampness.”
This proved to be an incorrect statement. I wonder how many other people I have corrected just now?
The wash has now been running without interruption for about six weeks. Below, two photos with dogs in them taken yesterday of the flowing Sutherland Wash at the Baby Jesus trail head, aka, “The Cottonwoods”:
Q. E. D.
2) Can it rain again in March in the Sutherland Heights (epicenter of the above titular forecast)?
It could, but the assertion by the author is stronger than “could.” Let us again look at the evidence for such a claim.
There are several opportunities for rain here during the remainder of March.
1) the upper low that goes over tomorrow and Friday will produce scattered mountain showers in the area; a sure thing, but light ones.
2) then that SAME low, after nesting in the Tropics for a couple of days comes back over us with an even greater chance of rain next week since its had a chance to scoop up some tropical air (think Altocumulus castellanus, unstable clouds that can become little Cumulonimbus clouds).
3) In the longer term, “troughiness” (“cyclonicity”) is indicated to reside in our Great Southwest by spaghetti maps. Some individual model runs have even had big rains in the area in 12-15 days from now. Below, an example from IPS MeteoStar, which for some reason did not follow through on the “fee-for-service” they had been announcing was coming for about three months so’s that we would have to pay to look at their nice renderings of government model stuff1:
Another example of the wettest model run I could find, trillions and trillions of galloons of water released in storms in the SW:
So, at LEAST three or four days in the remaining days of March with a chance of measurable rain, and THAT equals 100 % chance of rain falling within a 10 mile radius of the Sutherland Heights housing district between now and, and pushing the forecasting frontier even farther, say, the end of March! Going that far with such high confidence (100%) forecast is inappropriate for professional forecasting, but not here. So, this is a forecast for measurable rain on or VERY near us covering an amazing 19 days!
BTW, spaghetti thinks a trough of the magnitude above is goofy; see below. HOWEVER, there is a pretty strong tendency for cyclonic action here, just not as strong as the one above. The one above is likely goofy, an outlier model run….at this time. But, just like that New England win over the Seahawks in the last second when the Seahawks were about to run it in, but goofily passed the ball instead for an interception, outliers do occur.
Will keep an eye on this fun forecast from this keyboard, and get back to you from time to time IF it rains in the area. Otherwise, you will not hear from me again on this matter.
Below, some morning spaghetti for you.
So hope for additional rain before the end of March is not dead, as it seems today, but has much life, in fact, to repeat, “100%” life.
Here it is. You may need an optical enhancement tool to see the radar echo speck nearest Catalina, and its not the one nearest the arrowhead below, but continue in that direction:
You can also check on all the rain that fell overnight in the region here, courtesy of Pima County ALERT rain gauges. BTW, they aren’t capable of reporting traces, so if you see bunches of zeroes, it doesn’t mean some drops didn’t fall somewhere in the network.
Non-verification of this rain can also be found via our fine TUS NWS “storm total” view, 10:30 PM to 4:30 AM this morning:
In the meantime, all those rainy cloud blobs to our NW right now (first image) look like they will be able to just make it to Catalinaland after all.
In our last chapter, it looked like the strong cold front would move through tomorrow as just a dry cold one, but now the chances of having a little rain (a wet cold one) have been zooming up. The models have readjusted their thinking and now that critical ingredient, the core of the jet stream (at 500 mb) passing over us ahead of the trough core itself is being predicted.
And with that configuration as the front goes by Catalina, and believe me you’ll know by the 10-15 degree temperature drop, a tiny amount of rain might fall. Also, look for a pronounced lowering of cloud bases to the W-N of Catalina as it gets close, something in the way of an “arcus cloud”, marking the leading edge of the windshift to the N. Could be nice and dramatic looking tomorrow. Those cloud base lowerings are pretty common with fronts here.
How much rain?
Oh, possibilities range between 0 (a complete bust is still possible) to only about 0.25 inches, tops in the “best” of circumstances. But, this keyboard would like to see ANYTHING measurable; that would bring happiness.
There are some more rain blobs showing up in regular intervals in the days ahead for you to think about, as rendered by IPS MeteoStar. Arrows have been added to show you where you are, if you are in SE Arizona:
In the storm below, which is pretty much going to happen now, the range of amounts as seen from here, at least 0.15 inches, top, 0.50 inches, best guess, therefore, 0.33 inches (from averaging the two.)
There’s great uncertainly in whether this last storm will actually occur, so range of amounts are zero to 1 inch. :} See reasons for uncertainty below, besides being too far in advance or our models to be reliable anyway.
While a significant storm on the 1st is virtually assured according to spaghetti, this last major event in the panel above is doubtful. See below, in another lesson on consuming weather spaghetti:
Yesterday’s fine clouds
The End, though I COULD go on and on and on, and then on some more. Its who I am….