Category: Spaghetti plots

Some clouds; excessive excitement over model flip flops (web crawlers: not about shoes or girls wearing them) for late November

Here they are:                                             Today?  More pretty clouds. The weather way ahead, like on November 29th Just after I was asserting from this typewriter that the big storm, the Great Wet Hope in late… Continue reading Some clouds; excessive excitement over model flip flops (web crawlers: not about shoes or girls wearing them) for late November

Another big Cirrus streamer from the Equator heading our way!

Well, when there’s no rain in the model predictions for 15 days, you have to get excited about something…. Like a solar flare, there has been another massive ejection of high clouds from the equatorial region and its heading toward Catalina, AZ.   Here, from the Washington Huskies Weather Department1,  is a 24 h loop… Continue reading Another big Cirrus streamer from the Equator heading our way!

Next rain in 9-10 days?

The NCEP model, using last evening’s global data,  produced some green pixelation in Arizona (light rain areas are green in the model run output) for Monday night into Tuesday,  November 19th-20th.  However, look below at the NOAA ensemble of spaghetti plot for that day. I don’t see any rain here.  Do you? Cloud-maven juniors would be so… Continue reading Next rain in 9-10 days?

Big weather change coming about November 10th

The evidence is clear, see below: Or, maybe should it be, “clear?” Or, “Huh?” Of course, the two people who read this blog know that I am a big fan of these spaghetti plots, as they are known by in the business, in elucidating the likelihood of coming weather events shown on the progs. Today’s… Continue reading Big weather change coming about November 10th

Catalina dust to be vanquished today (?)

“?”?  It goes with the predicting the future territory… Raining at 4:19 AM!  Pretty good sized drops!  Wow. Current NWS forecast now says rain only after 11 AM so an early start is excellent. Moisture is moving rapidly into southern Arizona.  As an example, look at this uptick at Sells, AZ to the SW of… Continue reading Catalina dust to be vanquished today (?)

Map discussion

The weather ahead Since we have no weather/clouds to blab about now, it seemed like a good idea to look ahead at our fantasy weather, produced by models, and see what they have for us.  And in these future weather charts, something once again for us here in Arizona to dream about.  These maps below… Continue reading Map discussion

Summer and water year rain stats

Today, something useful…. Summer 2012 rainfall, June-September:  9.04 inches, average 7.27 inches. Water year rainfall, October 1, 2011 through September 30th, 2012:  16.00 inches, average 17.04 inches.     To see surrounding values, in some cases considerably higher than Catalina’s go to the U of Arizona’s rainlog.org and in the upper right hand corner, select, “date… Continue reading Summer and water year rain stats

While waiting for the October rains….

Not much to report really.  Things aren’t going quite as I expectulated yesterday afternoon in a burst of excitement about a good rain here beginning as early as October 3rd, so maybe I won’t say anything further about that, kind of pretend like I never said anything like that.  I do still think it will… Continue reading While waiting for the October rains….