No rain in sight for Catalinans, to get that over with.
However, if you’re bored and are thinking about a quickie storm chasing vacation with the family, monster storms, likely to produce newspaper headlines will be smashing the Pac NW in the next few days. Expect to read about flooding and hurricane to 100 mph winds on the Washington/Oregon coast sometime. Also, Tofino, British Columbia, along the SW coast of Vancouver Island, would be a great place to head for, watching giant waves crash up against the coast and around that lighthouse they have around there, pounding rains…
The long fetch with these storms in the Pacific guarantees some monster waves.
3:49 AM, 14 Oct: Mark “WeatherPal” Albright informed me that a 94 mph wind was observed last evening (the 13th) near Astoria, OR.
The next low, a “regular low” but one energized by leftover moisture from Typhoon Songda, looks to be even stronger than last night’s low. This one comes in moving really rapidly tomorrow evening while deepening (central pressure is dropping further) as it passes over the Washington coast. Looks like that one will be a “blow-down” storm; good-bye timber.
The synoptic pattern (placement of jet streams and lows) is “Freda-esque”, that is, similar to that of October 12, 1962, the infamous Columbus Day storm where a remnant of Typhoon Freda zipped in as a regular low that deepened explosively as it raced up the Pacific NW coast bringing winds of 100-200 mph and blowing down BILLIONS of board feet of timber as well as weather pal, Mark Albright, mentioned above, when he was a kid1.
Well, we sure hope its not THAT similar!
Lots of interesting patterns and complexities in yesterday’s skies. If you didn’t see them, here they are, though its kind of a much ado about nothing, really:
—————————- 1Mark. like most kids who are blown over in a windstorm, wanted to be a meteorologist right after that. Its pretty traumatic and life changing when you’re blown over by wind. CMP’s life was traumatized and changed forever when it snowed a few inches in the San Fernando Valley of southern California when he was six year’s old. Not sure you’ll find this information in the latest Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Psychiatric Disorders #5, however, but its a well-known phenomenon in the weather subculture.
Record July rains are falling in much of the coastal and intermediate valleys of southern California as the pathetic remnant of once proud Category FOUR hurricane Dolores makes landfall there today. Places like San Diego have had well over an inch, unheard of in July. August, not so much, since tropical storm remnants have passed over southern Cal in a few Augusts. Remember August 1977, when two inches fell on LA due to a tropical storm remnant?
That also August deluge in Los Angeles, by coincidence I am sure, preceded the big Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) switch in which low centers in the Pacific shifted farther to the south beginning with the 77-78 winter and the Arctic warmed up. Wallace et al 1995, Science Mag, discoverers of the PDO, were claiming that the PDO shift had seriously muddied up the global warming hoopla of the time, suggesting caution in those global warming claims.
Nobody really paid any attention, since it was about to get even WARMER in the years immediately ahead, like in the 97-98 winter when a giant El Nino, like the one now out there, spiked earth temperatures to a record high of the time.
By the way, the phrase, “global warming”, has been supplanted by the phrase, “climate change”, one that has been bastardized from its original use since climatologists have always considered the phrase, “climate change” a temperature-neutral, precipitation-neutral, could-go-either-way one, but as you know today it is one-tailed; that is, “climate change” today has only ONE meaning by those (often non-professionals) who use it; that an anthropogenic WARMING of the climate is underway with its attendant effects on precipitation and life itself.
When the earth stopped warming some 15-20 years ago, the global warming phrase heard all over the media had to be supplanted with something else, of course. I laugh, bitterly really, when I think of award-winning science geophys writer, Richard Kerr, of Sceince Mag, who wrote an article in Science, quoting the Hadley Center and such, titling his 2009 article about the hiatus in the rise in temperature, “What Happened to Global Warming?”
Of course, today such a title would not be allowed in Science Magazine. But then, Richard Kerr could not have titled his article, “What Happened to Climate Change?” either, since climate change is always happening on this planet, probably the others like it.
Speaking of mud, or muddying things up, some scientists (Karl et al.) are now claiming (in 2015) there was NO HIATUS in the earth’s temperature; that its been rising all along! This astounding finding is due to some manipulations/”corrections” of existing data and use of African and other data not previously available. You can read about this in summary form: Lost and Found_Sci 6-5-2015
This made me feel sad for the great scientists of the day, like Susan Soloman and others, who have generated hypotheses about WHY the pause in the rise in temperatures has occurred, even publishing those hypotheses in high end journals like Science Mag or Nature.
Those folks are bound to be pretty embarrassed now since they may have been explaining nothing that was real. It doesn’t get more embarrassing than that; kind of like explaining N-Rays, that bogus radiation reported after the turn of the century by French scientist, Renee Blondlot, at Nance University (the “N” was for Nance). Man, was Blonbdlot embarrassed when American physicist, Robert Wood, went to France to see “N-Rays” for himself and found that they were imaginary and reported them as so1. N-Rays, though they had been “confirmed” in numerous studies, were soon gone from the scene, one of the greatest mass delusions known to science.
Was there REALLY no hiatus, that the Hadley Center in England, perhaps the foremost climate center in the world, was somehow misled when they were reporting a pause or hiatus in warming? One thinks that the Karl et al 2015 report will get a LOT of scrutiny. Stand by….
More TSTMS in the area today through most of the summer. Hope one hits here in the Heights. We’re falling behind our 3.5 inch or so average for July.
1It was the story of American physicist, Robert Wood, as told in the 1982 book, Betrayers of the Truth: Fraud and Deceit in the Halls of Science, by William Broad and Nicholas Wade, that partially inspired your Catalina Cloud Maven.com to go to Israel in 1986 to see the clouds for himself since, in his experience after years of airborne cloud work at the University of Washington), the cloud reports emanating out of Israel were goofy, also the likely product of someone’s imagination. Those Israeli cloud reports WERE goofy as found by your author (1988 pub), and independently by others (U of Tel Aviv).
Misspelling the word, “high” was inadvertent; but leaving it was deliberate, thinking it might work as another cheap attempt to get more than one reader1, presently my mom. Hi, mom. Glad you enjoyed your mom’s day dinner yesterday, followed by the exciting trip through the Catalina car wash. Really squirts, doesn’t it?
Continuing….people might wonder if “hihg” a new word or acronym they haven’t seen before, maybe wonder if it describes something they should know about. So, I am looking to capture one or two extra folks today.
Our next “storm” will occur mostly above 20 kft above Catalina in the form of light snow showers of single ice crystals from Cirrus clouds, typically those crystals that fall out of Cirrus clouds are bullet rosettes.
What’s a bullet rosette? See below:
Oh, there could be an Altocumulus cloud, too, by tomorrow. But that’s about it. Our last storm was not actually a storm, btw, though there were some low clouds. I guess it got pretty windy, but not rain fell here, nor did it snow whatsoever atop Ms. Lemmon, though it was cold enough to. Boohoo.
But, the overall trend for upper cyclonic systems to nest over the Great Southwest continues, insuring a mild May here in Catalinaland, and also a ton of precip in other parts of the SW, with only brief interruptions of hot air, like the kind that comes from this weather keyboard.
The pretty, and high Cirrus clouds should begin arriving this afternoon, except that some are already arriving (5:20 AM)! Cloud maven seems to be on a wrong streak!
Next Catalina rain chance, graciously presented by the Canadians, is overnight, May 14-15th, just a few days from now. Check it out. This graphic been arrowated and texted for your convenience and understanding.
1Still can’t get over that Atlantic article about, “Blogging for dollars”; its like a song hook, maybe like the one from, The Model, by the very Germanic Kraftwerk techno-pop group, and yet after two years, I have made nothing! With millions of readers, you can make a LOT of money, get some great advertising like the various stuff that precedes the viewing of The Model, which has already accumulated more than 4 million views!
So I continue to reach out for readers and money.
What would a neurotic-compulsive, self-described “cloud maven” do with “a LOT of money”?
Underground power lines in his neighborhood. They obstruct sky and cloud views. Used to be quite a movement around the US to do that, but not so much anymore.
After last evening’s surprisingly heavy rain, we have now met our average for May for Catalina, having received 0.47 inches of rain over the past 24 h, some 0.36 inches during some house-shaking thunderclaps last evening.
Below are the 24 h local totals, ending at 4 AM today from the Pima County ALERT gauges rolling archive , these totals pretty much capturing all of our beautiful storm:
Gauge Location ID# —- —- —- —- —- —- —————– ——————— Catalina Area 1010 0.63 Golder Ranch Horseshoe Bend Rd in Saddlebrooke 1020 0.83 Oracle Ranger Station approximately 0.5 mi SW of Oracle 1040 0.55 Dodge Tank Edwin Rd 1.3 mi E of Lago Del Oro Parkway 1050 0.75 Cherry Spring approximately 1.5 mi W of Charouleau Gap 1060 0.79 Pig Spring approximately 1.1 mi NE of Charouleau Gap 1070 0.39 Cargodera Canyon NE corner of Catalina State Park 1080 0.63 CDO @ Rancho Solano CDO Wash NE of Saddlebrooke 1100 0.35 CDO @ Golder Rd CSO Wash at Golder Ranch Dr
Santa Catalina Mountains 1030 1.18 Oracle Ridge Oracle Ridge, 1.5 mi N of Rice Peak 1090 0.35 Mt. Lemmon Mount Lemmon 1110 1.34 CDO @ Coronado Camp CDO Wash 0.3 mi S of Coronado, 1130 0.83 Samaniego Peak Samaniego Peak on Samaniego Ridge 1140 0.79 Dan Saddle Dan Saddle on Oracle Ridge 2150 0.24 White Tail Catalina Hwy 0.8 mi W of Palisade RS 2280 0.24 Green Mountain Green Mountain 2290 0.12 Marshall Gulch Sabino Creek 0.6 mi SSE of Marshall Gulch
A little cold morning rain, and even snow on The Lemmon, is looking likely for Saturday morning. Presently, the core of the jet stream at 500 millibars or around 18,000 feet associated with a mighty upper cold low that sits on Arizona on Saturday is forecast to be south of us (as was yesterday’s jet), a pretty black and white discriminator for cool season (Oct-May) rain here.
However, if that jet core around the low does not circumscribe TUS, you can forget rain. From IPS MeteoStar, this rendering of the upper level configuration for Saturday morning, showing that it WILL circumscribe TUS:
In the meantime, “troughiness” today, tomorrow and Thursday, with secondary jet stream to south of us, will give us some more photogenic high-based Cumulus, maybe with some with virga in the afternoons. Today, as our upper low says goodbye, subsiding air is supposed to keep clouds from attaining tops high and cold enough to form ice. So, no rain today.
Yesterday’s clouds (going deep, as in pedantically)
There were some great scenes yesterday, summer-like ones, odd for May here, with massive rainshafts as the cloud bases lowered, reflected a huge jump in surface dewpoints to summer-like values in the mid-50s. Cloud bases yesterday morning, riding the tops of Samaniego Ridge, were near 7 C, compared with -5 C the afternoon before.
This warming of cloud bases greases the precipitation “wheel” since clouds with warm bases are be able to rain easier than ones with cold bases (say, near or at below freezing temperatures). Droplet sizes have to be larger at any given level above cloud base compared to the clouds of the day before since more moisture is forming in those updrafts at the higher base temperature. And, oddly, the larger the droplets, the higher the temperature at which ice can begin forming in clouds. And when ice forms, snow, then rain, come out the bottom.
To go on too long on this in covering all rain possibilities for yesterday, a base temperature of 7 C here is on the edge of being able to produce droplets big enough so that some begin colliding with one another and sticking together so that drizzle, then raindrops can form, a couple to a few thousand feet above cloud base, and those sizes of drops can really accelerate the formation of ice and then rain out the bottom. Are there any readers left? I doubt it.
Let us go even deeper…. It was hazy, smoky looking yesterday most of the morning, even when some good thunderstorms formed. So what? Well, smoke is bad for storms. Remember when it was reported by Warner and and the U of Arizona’s own Sean Twomey (1967) that sugarcane burning made it stop raining downwind from those fires in Australia? That effect has been verified in satellite measurements by cloud seeding nemesis, Danny Rosenfeld2 of the HUJ in Science a few years ago.
Well, too much smoke can choke droplet sizes down and inhibit the formation of rain by collisions, and delay the formation of ice. And so we had that counter effect of smoke from somewhere, maybe LA this time since it was in the boundary layer, not aloft like that smoke layer from Asia was a couple of weeks ago.
So, cloud microstructurally-spekaing, it was an especially interesting day, one, if he were cloud maven person, wishes he would have had an aircraft to sample them.
But let us look now and see what all the fuss is about:
This link will bring up the window below. There’s a little tutorial below on what to do once when you get to this window:When you get to this page, the latest model run data will come up in red. Here, to see precipitation in colors on a map, click on the name, “1000_500_thick” for the best view of the many Arizona precipitation days ahead. You will see the precipitation totals for three (or six hours late in the model run) for the next 15 days as calculated by the WRF-GFS model, considered OUR best, but not as good as the Euro model some say1.
This is the same stuff that is rendered so nicely by IPS MeteoStar. I thought I would take you to the source, since its available an hour or two before the IPS renderings are completed.
In sum, its pretty amazing to see this many days with rain predicted so late in March and I thought you should see it, maybe brighten your day up.
Below , your March rain parade, a list of the NINE days with rain in the “general2” Catalina area from this latest model run based on global obs at 11 PM AST last night:
12 RW- VCTY3 (today)
13 RW- VCTY (recall, too, that spaghetti suggested an enhanced chance of rain between March 11-15th some coupla weeks ago)
14, 15, 16, 17 No rain indicated on these days
18 RW- VCTY
19 RW- VCTY
20 RW- VCTY
22 RW- VCTY
23, 24, 25 No rain indicated on these days
26 RW- VCTY
Below, a peak at the latest 15 day spaghetti plot based on last evening’s 5 PM AST global data. I think you can see that there will be a lot going on in 15 days …
Your cloud day today
Heavy dense deep middle clouds with sprinkles in the area are passing overhead now. Will give way to an at least partial clearing in the late afternoon, meaning a great sunset is likely.
Rain not likely to be measurable today.
Yesterday’s cloud shot
1Remember how Superstorm Sandy, the one that battered the East Coast a couple of years ago, was better predicted by Euro mod rather than our own model, causing quite a weather flap?
2“General” is taken here as any rain that falls within a 10 mi radius of Catalina.
3“RW- VCTY” is text for “Light rain showers in the vicinity” (of Catalina, not necessarily ON Catalina, but we hope so.
4“R”, indicates steady rain of moderate intensity, namely that the models are predicting more substantial rain here where an “R” appears.
5As soon as I formulated this description about a protruding or tufted top, I realized it could be taken as untoward, perhaps even a salacious reference. Are we men so cursed that it’s always about the woman, the things we think6?
6As a further example, on a Cumulus cloud study in the Marshall Islands, I was acting as the person responsible for which clouds to sample with our research aircraft7, I noted a newly risen Cumulus turret a minute or two ahead, on the right. Speaking to the Director of the Cloud and Aerosol Group, Peter Hobbs, I reported over the intercom that there was a “young, firm, protuberant Cumulus cloud at 2 O’clock”, “Shall we penetrate it?”, I asked.
1While several inches of model2 rain has occurred in Catalina and in the nearby mountains this month, most of which cloud-maven person has festooned his blog with model panels of, there really hasn’t been any ACTUAL rain.
But having said that, there is even MORE model rain ahead, some beginning tomorrow in these parts. Tomorrow’s rain comes from a sub-tropical minor wave ejecting from the sub-tropics. You know, as a CMJ, a wave from that zone means a ton of high and middle clouds, i.e., likely DENSE Altostratus with virga, something that was seen yesterday off to the SW of us. This time, though, some rain should fall from these thick clouds, though almost certainly will be in the trace to a tenth of an inch range between tomorrow and Monday morning.
Model rain from 11 PM AST global data then falls in Catalina on:
with the model total rain in these periods likely surpassing an inch or more! What a model rain winter season this has been! Astounding. The model washes have been running full since late December, too!
BTW, that last model rain period is really a great one, a major rain for ALL of Arizona!
Some recent clouds I have known and a couple of wildflowers
The End. Hope you enjoy the copious model rains ahead!
First you had the rarely seen “Aircraft Produced Ice Particles” (APIPs, or “High Temperature Aircraft Contrails” (HTACs) in supercooled Altocumulus in the afternoon. Contrails were being produced in clouds that were “only” -20 C to -30 C (-4 to -22 F) and aircraft contrails were thought to be impossible at those temperatures, but rather, only at much lower ones, below -40 C (-40 F) or so.
Then, just after sunset, the heavy layer of Altocumulus produced a sun pillar! I was out in Saddlebrooke having dinner with friends after sunset, so had to leave dinner for about ten minutes, but I was so excited for you that I had to see it for myself, too. Since it would have been obscenely rude to tell my dinner friends the true reason why I left, when I got back after many minutes I told them I had to pee, and that seemed to go over pretty well I thought1.
Below, a coupla shots of that sun pillar I got while “peeing” on your behalf:
Let us look at our sounding and see if we can see how cold those Altocumulus clouds were:
Here are some of the magical, rare scenes from aircraft making ice canals in those very cold supercooled Altocumulus clouds:
Skipping to the chase, as hard as that is to do, this trail really lit up as it got to the 22 degree point from the sun, where mock suns and such happen, producing a rainbow of colors due to iridescence, a rainbow producing by very tiny ice crystals in this case, of the order of a few microns in size.
Guess about today’s clouds
Maybe a few Cirrus, patch or two of Cirrocumulus, and likely lenticular clouds, particularly off to the north.
The big storm everyone’s talking about?
Oh, yeah, baby, its still comin’, begins on Wednesday, New Year’s Eve in the afternoon, continues for about 24 h off and on.
Bracketing possible precip totals: still 0.25 inches on the bottom (10% chance of less), 1.50 inches on the top (10% chance of more). Average of those two often brings the best estimate, which would be about 0.87 inches, somewhere in there. You know, when you deal with wobbly cut off lows, you just can’t be real confident in how much rain they’ll bring. However, it looks like the north part of the State will get the brunt in snow, which will be great for the water situation.
1It would be fun to hear what your excuses were as a “CMJ”–Cloud Maven Junior, if you were in a similar predicament last evening and HAD to see that rare sun pillar, rather than meet new people at dinner who wouldn’t be able to understand you anyway because you are compulsed like that; leave a great dinner to go outside in cold air to take cloud photos.
Well, nobody really understands a CM.
I remember in grammar school and Junior High in Reseda, CA, when kids teased me on clear days , saying, “Hey, Artie! Is it gonna rain today?” Then they would laugh at me for being a CM before I even answered the question, knowing all the while what the answer was going to be. Still, out of civility, I would answer them: “No, we’re having Santa Ana conditions now and it can’t rain for at least five days”, but they would still be laughing in the midst of my explanation about why it wasn’t going to rain. Kind of a sad scene when you think about it, that is, how mean kids can be to kids who are different. Later, when I became a pretty good athlete, they liked me, which shows how important athletics is over knowing stuff, and helping you “fit in.”
2 “Pristine” means that can’t be gunked up by having collected cloud droplets on their faces because then the optics, like sun pillars, mock suns, that kind of thing can’t happen if the crystals are messed up with droplets on them or a lot of extra hexagonal arms sticking out of them, as in bullet rosette ice crystals.
Friends, arriving this afternoon from Seattle for a sunny and warm couple of vacation days, will find that Catalina weather today is exactly like the weather they left in Seattle; poor Tommy and Patty.
Clouds will fill in as the day goes on, becoming pretty cloudy at times, especially in the afternoon hours. They will starting to ice up, too, and you know what that means; they’ll produce virga and light showers in the area, with breezes and a high of only in the low 50s.
Be sure to record the first sighting of ice in clouds today. Will be a nice test for you, and a great ob in your cloud diary.
Still expecting a pretty major storm next week.
Got 0.12 inches in the gauge last evening.
In the meantime, meet members of the former Cloud and Aerosol Research Group at the University of Washington, Professor Peter V. Hobbs, director.
Tom, who arrives today from Seattle, was our group’s software engineer at the University of Washington. He was kind of recluse we learned after he was hired. Liked to have a lot of high vegetation around his desk in our lab where me and a grad student worked. However, unlike a prior software engineer, who was also brilliant like Tom, Tom really never fell asleep at his desk that we know of.
Our first software engineer was Doug, shown meditating below.He was great! Worked long hours that often took their toll in the daytime.
But, not to demean “Doug” whatsoever, who truly WAS brilliant, and his software helped enormously to grease the wheel of our group’s aircraft data analyses, and who also made a lot of money when he joined the then fledgeling Microsoft in the early 1980s, took his job especially seriously, He liked to let people know how seriously, and exactly how much he loved working with computers. And he dressed to show it.
Cloud and Aerosol Researcher, “Stan”, monitoring cloud particle data on a flight over the Washington coastal waters.
It was a fact, that as I got embedded into perhaps the best Atmospheric Science Department in the world, I also learned that science draws “unusual”, maybe even quirky folk, and “meditating” while on the job, perhaps “awaking” with new, substantive realizations of relationships, or ways of presenting data, was pretty common, not just with Doug:
But there were other quirky characteristics that turned up, like “Germophobe John”, shown below, who actually shared my lab room for many years:
Then there was that one guy who worked as part of the flight crew who specialized in looking like John Denver, and liked to come in to work in the morning and report that someone on the bus he rode thought he was John Denver. Seemed to get a lot of satisfaction out of that, which in retrospect is kind of sad when you think about it.
Me? I was pretty normal, really not too much affected by the various quirky people around me. From those halcyon days, a selfie:
There was some thought, however, that any quirkiness that was exhibited in our personnel might have been due to the various cancer-causing chemicals we worked with, one of which was Formvar, used to capture images of ice crystals that would hit the liquid Formvar on movie film rotating in the arm of a probe that stuck out of a pod, or a glass slide that stuck out a hole on a stick in the plane. In both cases, the crystal would hit the liquid Formvar, which would dry VERY fast, and then the impression of the crystal would be left in the plastic Formvar.
Below, “Diana”, and “Brad”, a brilliant grad student, at least before he started working with Formvar, examine a jar of the smelly stuff.
3:53 PM. This was about an hour before virga and falling snow began to obscure the tops of Samaniego Ridge and Mt. Ms. Lemmon. Here the streaks, crespuscular rays, are NOT caused by precip, but rather dust
Some additional scenes from a 4 h yesterday into the Sam Ridge foothills:
Stuck here, might reached a limit, can’t seem to add photos, and there are too many already.
Beginning to wonder, with all the middle cloud thickness out there over and SW of Baja that’s headed this way if we won’t get sprinkles that produce a little measurable rain later today or overnight….
Models beginning to wetten things up here as well, like that Enviro Can model that sees our tropical surge high and middle clouds passing over us now, as deep enough for measurable rain later today and overnight. Huh. U of AZ mod, the best one for us, is still dry around here except on mountain tops. Our larger scale model, however, also has some very light rain in this area now, later today into tomorrow morning.
What’s intriguing is that a little jet core at 500 mb (up there at about the height of middle clouds) passes south of us as this happens, key for precip here1 in the cool season. The major jet stream is far to the north.
As you know, we have a bit of an El Niño going, both a “Classic Niño” as well as the “New Niño” going, and El Niños strengthen the southern portions of jet streams in the very way that we’re seeing in this situation.
They do that because its warmer than usual in the central and far eastern Pacific tropics due to heat in extra big Cumulus and Cumulonimbus clouds that pump away down there over that extra warm water, and that rising warmth produces a greater than usual difference in temperatures throughout the troposphere between the tropics and the mid-latitudes. Since jet streams are the products of temperature differences between warm and cold air around the globe, so unusually deep warmth in the tropical eastern Pacific gives a little strength tweak to jet streams coming into the coast2.
SInce there are two of these lower latitude “waves” traveling along in the southern branch of the jet stream, there are TWO chances for slight rains including that for later today. The next one barges in on the 6th of December. Will again be dense middle and high clouds with virga at its worst, like this one, though again a hundredth or two could happen.
Next real rain chance, and major front passage with air that’s too cold for us, will be on the 12th. Spaghetti folk, or “Spaghetti Busters”, those who can make sense of these balls of yarn, can EASILY see that trough on the 12th and a cold front with are “in the bag” even though that’s ten days away. Rain occurrence is more dubious, since the trough may land a bit too far east to produce rain, only a lowering of temperatures. Here is that plot from last evening. Enjoy.
Your yesterday’s clouds
BTW, for horsey people, the Cement Trough had water in it yesterday after being completely dry ten days ago:
1See Rangno, 1973, unpublished manuscript and figures for the whole US using only the horizontal shear in jet stream at 500 mb as a definer of precip occurrences. Its really quite something, though, I guess you can’t see it.
2This was figured out by the Great Jacob Bjerknes of the Norwegian School of Meteorology while he was cruising into retirement (“Emeritus” status) at UCLA in the 1960s, though Chuck Pyke3,4, his grad student, did most of the work. Did a lotta work on the big “Classic” El Niño of 1957-58, which, per chance turned out to be an International Geophysical Year with a lot of extra observations! How lucky wazzat?
3Chuck, as you may recall was in the National Guard whilst at UCLA and was sent to Biloxi, MS, for two weeks of training and while there, was “gifted” with the passage of the eye of Hurricane Camille, one of the strongest of the century. Later the remnants of Camille, to go on and on, produced 31 inches of rain in 6 h in Virginia.
4Chuck P, who now lives in Arizona, also was very thorough in his evaluations of rainfall in his other studies concerning the seasonal timing of rainfall throughout the West. He once told me when I visited UCLA once to get Bjerknes autograph5 that he had gone to every rainfall measuring site in his study! Now some people go to every baseball park in America, but going every rain gauge site would be more interesting to cloud mavens. He further told me he found one that had not moved for 30 years, but the rainfall had been decreasing. When he went to that gauge, he found that it was being overgrown by a tree! This is why you have to check things.
5I failed. He was “Emeritus”; too good to be in his office that day. You see, your Catalina cloud maven was a strange person even then, wanting an autobgraph by Bjerknes rather than one by Mickey Mantle, though one by Mickey M would be worth a lot more today.
Been looking around at quite a number of model runs (well 2, anyway) trying to find the best one for you. Here it is. Its yesterday’s WRF-GFS run that was based on 11 AM AST global data. Has some great rains for us here in Arizona. Those rains, and that incredible hurricane that saunters up the coast of Baja in about ten days, aren’t depicted as well in later model runs, so there’s not much point in showing them. If you want a great, OBJECTIVE forecasting, you know, go to Bob, or the NWS, or wait for Mike L’s detailed one from the U of AZ later this morning! You’re not going to find “objectivity” here when it comes to forecasting rain for a desert region1. Let’s look at two examples of weather excitement in that now-obsolete-run-but-doesn’t-mean-it won’t-happen-anyway-just-because-its-a little-older-run”1: 1) Lotta rain in Arizona (that’s a different near-hurricane over there in the SW corner of the map, one that in one model run from Canada, formerly went over Yuma! Sorry Yuma, and all of Arizona, both of which would have gotten, in that event, a bigger dent in the drought than shown below. Oh, well.
2) Fascinating near-hurricane just off San Diego on the 29th of August, likely surviving so well due to the California Niño mentioned here lately. BTW, this particular hurricane is predicted to be exceptionally large and intense out there when it revs up in a few days, maybe a Category 4 at its peak, looking at some of the model runs. “Let’s go surfin’ now, everybody’s learnin’ how….” The Beach Boys, 1962, sayin’ it like it was for us near-beach bums way back then when the summer hurricanes in the Mexican Pacific sent huge waves poleward on to our southern California beaches, as the one below will2.
What an outstanding, if surprising day it was! After it appeared, in later model runs available late yesterday morning, that the late afternoon/evening bash from the high country wasn’t going to happen after all (producing local glumness), we had a remarkable in situ explosion of cloud tops. Those clouds just erupted from an innocuous, patchy group of Stratocumulus that invaded the sky around 5 PM. Still, even with the early turrets jutting up there, it didn’t seem possible, at 7 PM, there would be much more growth into showers, let alone, thunderstorms with frequent lightning lasting several hours that happened. Eventually rain even got into Sutherland Heights/Catalina, with 0.17 inches here, and 0.12 inches at the Golder Bridge, and that didn’t seem possible since the rain shafts were so locked onto the Catalinas, and east side for so long. Dan Saddle, about 5 mi S of Oracel, counting the mid-afternoon thunderstorms that locked in upthere, got a 2.68 inches over the past 24 h! That should have sent a little water down the CDO. BTW, a location in the Rincons is reporting 4.09 inches in the past 24!
Got some Stratocu (castellanus in some parts) topping Sam (Samaniego Ridge) this morning, an outstanding indication of a lot of moisture in the air, moisture that’s not just at the surface. U of AZ has thunderstorms moving toward Catalina during the late morning (!) and afternoon from the SW, not the usual direction we’re accustomed to. So, keep eyeball out toward Twin Peaks or so for exciting weather today! Oh, my, towering Cu top converted to ice, must be 25-30 kft up there right now at 7:06 AM! Also, notice nice shadow on lower Ac clouds.
1“Truth-in-packaging” portion of web blog statement.
1Its chaos in the models due to errors in them we don’t always know about, chaos that we try to get a handle on with plots from the NOAA spaghetti factory. But you know all that already, so my apologies for repeating myself again and again. I thought I would see what would happen if I put TWO “1” footnotes….
2Of course, in those days, we had little knowledge about how many hurricanes there were down there due to the lack of satellite data and ship reports. But when the “Weather Bureau”, as it was called in those days did know, there was always good surf on the south facing beaches, like Zuma Beach. So going to the beach, unlike now where wave forecasting is so good, was a real crap shoot. You’d come over that first viewpoint of the ocean on Malibu Canyon Road, on your way to Zuma. one that over looked the ocean a little offshore from Malibu, and either go, “Holy Crap!”, or hope for the best. It was a swell time for lightly employed youth. Below, the best “Holy Crap!” view coming around to that viewpoint, early September 1963 (never saw anything like it before or afterwards; swells were never visible so far offshore from this spot, meaning Zuma would be gigantic). Still remember those Zuma waves, so far out to sea, as the height of small telephones…