Category: The weather ahead

Canadian model returns to the “good” AZ storm” prediction; spaghetti mentioned

After re-thinking the powerful storm yesterday based on the morning’s new data and making it a semi-marginal one, most of the rain to the south, the Canadian model run came back last night with a powerful AZ storm again!   Forecasters who want lots of rain here in AZ and Catalina can get manic-depressive during… Continue reading Canadian model returns to the “good” AZ storm” prediction; spaghetti mentioned

A climate heroine: Judy Curry

Perhaps she will lead us out of the climate kerfluffles that we continuously have due to overzealous scientists that edit the content of their studies to the news media, leaving out the important complications.  Perhaps with our science “watch dog”, Judy, they won’t do that. “Complications”, you ask? The earth’s temperature has leveled out for… Continue reading A climate heroine: Judy Curry

Yep, its gone; all that model predicted rain in just the next 12 h run!

Dammitall!  Of course, being quite jaded, and knowing drastic changes in model predictions from one run to the next are usually bogus, this disappearance of all that predicted rain in 10-15 days ahead of us on yesterday morning’s National Center for Enviro Prediction “GFS” model has hurt.  People don’t realize how hard it is to… Continue reading Yep, its gone; all that model predicted rain in just the next 12 h run!

Something not to be depressed about: rain in the forecast!

The cloud drought has been a little depressing here in Catalina, Arizona, particularly in view of repeated computer model runs that showed that the next 15 days do not even shown rain getting close to us. But today, oh my, today’s run.  This is a model run for the ages!  Take a look at these,… Continue reading Something not to be depressed about: rain in the forecast!

“Does any one here know how to play this game?”

Of weather forecasting?  Models?  Me?  Nope. Turning Casey Stengel’s famous comment about his woeful New York Mets into one about weather forecasting seemed appropriate after our little disturbance passed over yesterday afternoon and evening with hardly even virga here!  Got a little depressed at how delusional I was about a squall-line (lion?) feature I thought… Continue reading “Does any one here know how to play this game?”

Likable model runs continue; one of the best overnight!

Tired of being dry?  Tired of having dry washes?  Tired of seeing dust raised on your gravel road?  Maybe too much dust on your late model car?  Maybe you’ve been thinking about wanting some more humidity and cloud cover with RAIN to make to make you lose that feeling of fatigue and boredom?  Well, then… Continue reading Likable model runs continue; one of the best overnight!

Its back! After going away on the model runs for a couple of days and I didn’t want to tell you about it thinking it could come back because the models can be kind of dicey on these things and it did

That vexious tropical storm is once again shown to move northward into Baja Cal and then its remnants move into the SW, combine with a winter-like upper air trough, and together produce some good AZ rains.  After a period of depression about this tropical depression going to the west and dying instead of into AZ… Continue reading Its back! After going away on the model runs for a couple of days and I didn’t want to tell you about it thinking it could come back because the models can be kind of dicey on these things and it did

“Good” model runs continue, ones that bring substantial rain to AZ

I thought sure that late September-early October tropical storm entry into AZ and Catalina land would disappear; too good to be true.   But today,  after several more model runs, there it is, the remnant practically over where we live the afternoon of October 1st (2nd panel)!  (These are National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)… Continue reading “Good” model runs continue, ones that bring substantial rain to AZ

Good model

I like this model output from “12Z” this morning, and so I thought my other reader besides me would like it, too. These are the latest gov’t models as repackaged by IPS Meteostar–they do a great job at presenting weather stuff. These are for the afternoons of September 29th and 30th, respectively.  Note hurricane (low… Continue reading Good model