Some 8 days ago a spaghetti plot indicated with confidence that a “warm in the West”, “cool in the East” pattern would develop. Well it has materialized. Thanks to Hamweather, this chart shows the records set with that pattern so far. They’re not so numerous, but the forecast of a strong trough off the West Coast pulling warmer air north into the West and a trough in the East dragging down cold air from Canada has verified. The point of this is that those strange looking “spaghetti” plots can have some power if you’re not overwhelmed by all the lines.
BTW, after learning about this spaghetti verification, you might want to consider adding to your collection of cloud maven junior tee shirts this new attractive—well, stunning really — “I love spaghetti” black Tee offering with a truly gorgeous multi-colored example of the NOAA-NCEP “ensembles of spaghetti.”
Here’s last night’s example from NOAA-NCEP to get you excited about getting that tee:
I think you’d look great in it, and, of course, most sophisticated when it comes to being a cloud maven junior and advertising that you know about something like this. Most people have never heard of these plots, which puts you ahead of masses.
Remember the “You are here” Milky Way Galaxy tee showing where the earth was? Well this one would be as good for you to be seen in as that one! And this new cloud maven junior tee is only $29.95 plus shipping and handling, which brings the total to $75.42. (I’ve been studying how the online vendors do it….)
Think of all the people you might meet that would ask you about your tee by saying, “Huh?”
Then you would go on a long spiel, making new friends, by pointing out areas on your tee where the signal is strong and the forecast reliable, and where the forecast model is clueless. In the above example tee, that trough north of the Hawaiian Islands 15 days from now looks pretty solid while things are pretty clueless in central Europe, roughly diagonal from the trough north of Hawaii. You know where Hawaii is, don’t you?
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The weather ahead, way ahead…grasping for a switch to be turned on
A great pattern popped out yesterday. Hasn’t been seen since, but it was so exciting that I thought I would share it with you. We’ve been in a stagnant pattern for a LONG time now; storms racing across the Pacific into the northern half of the West Coast. As a weatherman, we’re always looking for the switch; patterns like that just don’t last ALL winter, but a tipping point happens, and boom, everything is suddenly different.
In this model run from yesterday, a tipping point happened and the storms began moving southward along the Alaskan coastline to off California in about 10 days. One of those is shown here near San Francisco. At this time in the run, December 15th, 5 AM AST, extensive rains are shown in Arizona!
While it might verify, there has not been support for this pattern since, and the ensembles of spaghetti, shown above, are not very encouraging, actually not at all, only suggesting a trough in the northern Plains States. A trough is suggested in the southern Rockies, and not a strong one at that since that trough is mainly confined to the red lines, those demarcating the periphery of the jet stream, or may even be a weak southern branch separate from the northern one. Usually doesn’t rain here with those.
But, this quasi bogus output looked so great, I had to post it anyway. I was so excited yesterday when it came out, because we know there WILL be a pattern change. There always is, even if its short-lived and isn’t a total drought buster. I guess this indicates a degree of desperation when you’re posting model outputs with little chance to verify.