On your mark, get set, (pause) RAIN!!!! (screaming here)

a lot….beginning tomorrow afternoon or evening, not today.  Today is “pause” day.  Also, its trash day today here in Catalina, mentioned here as a public service.

Slow moving,  sub-tropical  system to drop several inches of water content in rain/snow in mountains, sez our best model, that run by the U of AZ.  Thank you, U of AZ, btw.  Below a snapshot of the total precip from that 5 PM AST global data crunch, “nested” for AZ.  This plodding gigantostorm should keep the water coming down the washes, luxuriate our sprouting wildflowers, some of which, like desert asters, are beginning to emerge and even bloom1:

Total precipitation ending just after midnight, Feb 2nd, as seen by the WRF-GFS model run
Total precipitation ending just after midnight, Feb 2nd, as seen by the WRF-GFS model run from 5 PM AST last evening.  Catalina/Oro Valley appears to be in a bit of a shadow, so while Ms. Lemmon and vicinity are forecast  to get several inches of water content in rain and snow, Catalina gets an inch–though hard to see in this graphic.  Why?  Likely south to southeast flow coming downslope off the Catalinas.  But, I think its WRONG!

Lot’s of gray sky photograph opportunities ahead.  Get camera ready.  Not much in the way of rain seen in mods after this, so enjoy this rain “chapter” of your life as fully as you can.

Yesterday’s clouds

After another light shower boosted our storm total another 0.02 inches, a fabulous, wonderful, almost Hawaiian like day followed with a little humidity in the air, deep blue skies, and white puffy clouds, ones a true cloud maven would call, Cumulus clouds and would be ashamed if he just said they were “puffy clouds.”

7:34 AM.  Sun tried to break through some puffy clouds over the Catalinas after our 0.05 inch shower.  A few, very small shower cells were around, but didn't look like much at this time.
7:34 AM. Sun tried to break through some puffy clouds over the Catalinas after our 0.05 inch shower. A few, very small shower cells were around, but didn’t look like much at this time.
7:53 AM.  Gee, a strong, though narrow rainshaft developed SSW of Catalina, upwind!  Suggests a Cumulonimbus-like protruding, icy-looking  top up there on top of the shaft.
7:53 AM. Gee, a strong, though narrow rainshaft developed SSW of Catalina, upwind! Suggests a Cumulonimbus-like protruding, icy-looking top up there on top of the shaft.

 

8:08 AM.  The three amigos rainshafts, headed this way, evnetually dropped another "surprise" 0.02  inches.  Earlier model runs had indicated the rain would be over by dawn yesterday.
8:08 AM. The three amigos rainshafts, headed this way, evnetually dropped another “surprise” 0.02 inches. Earlier model runs had indicated the rain would be over by dawn yesterday.

 

8:34 AM.  One of the "amigos" hit Ms. Lemmon and Sam Ridge nicely.  Ms Lemmon racked up 0.59 inches out of the storm overall.  Very nice, considering our 0.07 inches total.
8:34 AM. One of the “amigos” hit Ms. Lemmon and Sam Ridge nicely. Ms Lemmon racked up 0.59 inches out of the storm overall. Very nice, considering our 0.07 inches total.
8:53 AM.  As we know so well, sometimes the best, most dramatic shots are those after the rain passes, and the rocky surfaces glisten in a peak of sunlight, here enhanced by crepuscular rays due to the falling rain.  A rainbow was also seen, but not by me somehow.
8:53 AM. As we know so well, sometimes the best, most dramatic shots are those after the rain passes, and the rocky surfaces glisten in a peak of sunlight, here enhanced by crepuscular rays due to the falling rain. A rainbow was also seen, but not by me somehow.

 

8:54 AM.  Closer look at glistening rocks toward the Charouleau Gap.
8:54 AM. Closer look at glistening rocks toward the Charouleau Gap.

 

11:45 AM.  The deep blue sky, the puffy clouds topping Sam Ridge, the strong sun, the bit of humidity, the bird flying along on the left, gave the sense of one being in Hawaii I thought.
11:45 AM. The deep blue sky, the puffy clouds topping Sam Ridge, the strong sun, the bit of humidity, the bird flying along on the left, gave the sense of one being in Hawaii I thought.
12:32 PM.  Puffy clouds still top Samaniego (Sam) Ridge.
12:32 PM. Puffy clouds still top Samaniego (Sam) Ridge.

 

2:28 PM.  Small puffy clouds provide a "postcard" view of Catalina, Saddlebrooke and environs.  Visibility here well over 100 miles.
2:28 PM. Small puffy clouds provide a “postcard” view of Catalina, Saddlebrooke and environs. Visibility here well over 100 miles.  Never get tired of these views!  You got some Cirrocumulus up there, too.

 

2:51 PM.  Another postcard view of our beloved Catalina.  Rail-X Ranch and the Tortolitas off in the distance, left.  Nice patterned Cirrocumulus up top above the little puffy clouds.
2:51 PM. Another postcard view of our beloved Catalina. Rail-X Ranch and the Tortolitas off in the distance, left. Nice patterned Cirrocumulus up top above the little puffy clouds.

 

5:58 PM.  The day ended with a nice sky-filling sunset as a Cirrus layer was lighted from below by the fading sun.
5:58 PM. The day ended with a nice sky-filling sunset as a Cirrus layer was lighted from below by the fading sun.  The lines of virga show that while Cirrus clouds don’t have a lot of water vapor to work with up there at -40 C (also -40 F), the crystals that form are still large enough to settle out as precip.

 

The End

 

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1Desert Aster (I think) in bloom seen on the link trail from the Baby Jesus Trail to the Deer Camp Trail.

Seen on big hike, Jan. 22nd.  This plant will be so happy by next week!
Seen on big hike, Jan. 22nd. This plant will be so happy by next week!

By Art Rangno

Retiree from a group specializing in airborne measurements of clouds and aerosols at the University of Washington (Cloud and Aerosol Research Group). The projects in which I participated were in many countries; from the Arctic to Brazil, from the Marshall Islands to South Africa.