Signal in the spaghetti; updated with climate info from Science mag just now!

Here it is:

Valid two week from now, Thursday, 5 AM, March 20th.
Valid two weeks from now, Thursday, 5 AM, March 20th.  Massive trough, at last, settles into the West for awhile, more in keeping with climo.   Keep jackets at the ready.  Rain?  Dunno yet, but probably on the correct side of 50-50 beginning around the 17th.  Changes!  Warm and dry for a coupla days, followed by a parade of troughs, quite a few minor ones over the next week or so, before the Big One forms.  Above, this is a VERY strong signal in the spaghetti for two weeks out, and so got pretty excited when I saw it, as you are now, too.  So, when mid-March arrives, get ready!

Was going to close with this NWS forecast for Catalina (might be updated by the time you link to it), but then saw just now that Saturday, the day a cold, dry trough is over us, it’s predicted to be 76 F here in Catalina,  too warm.  I would prepare for upper 60s.

Canadian model has even had rain near us at times as this trough goes by on Saturday, but only here in the 11th hour (from yesterday’s 5 PM AST run) has the US model indicated that the core of the trough and rain near us on Saturday, as the Canadian one had for a few days before that.  Hmmm…

The fact that any trough is ending up stronger than it was predicted, as the one on Saturday,  is a good sign of being close to the bottom (farthest S lattitude) of the “trough bowl”, that location where troughs like to come and visit.   So, maybe this is a precursor for us, this unexpected little cool snap on Saturday.  Maybe climatology is beginning to work its wonders at last in the West.

Powerful storms begin affecting the interior of the West and Great Basin in 10 days, and that pretty much marks the time when the winds here start to pick up to gusty at times as strong low centers develop to the north of us, and the major jet stream subsides to the south toward us.

It will be the end of the warm winter era for us, too.  While cold settles in the West, it will mean very toasty weather back East from time to time, something those folks will greatly enjoy.

———————–Climate issue commentary; skip if you’re happy with the climate as it is now—————————-

As you likely know, much of the upper Midwest had one of its coldest winters ever, and just a few days ago Baltimore (locally, “Ballimore”, as in “Ballimore Orioles”) had its lowest measured temperature EVER in March, 4 F!

“RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
0930 AM EST TUE MAR 04 2014
…DAILY AND MONTHLY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS SET AT BALTIMORE
MD…
A DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 4 DEGREES WAS SET AT BALTIMORE MD TODAY…BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 5 SET BACK IN 1873.
THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 4 DEGREES FROM TODAY WAS ALSO THE
LOWEST MINUMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDED ON ANY DAY IN MARCH FOR
BALTIMORE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH WAS 5 DEGREES ON 4 MARCH 1873.

(Thanks to Mark Albright for this official statement; emphasis by author)

If you’ve followed some media reports, the exceptional cold of this winter has been attributed to global warming, a hypothesis that has been questioned by climo Big Whigs.  However, if it is right (which even lowly C-M doubts), parts of the upper Midwest may become uninhabitable due to cold in a warming world, quite a weather “oxymoron.”

Also, if you’ve been hearing about weather extremes and global warming (AKA, “climate change”) you really should read this by a scientist I admire, Roger Pielke, Jr., at Colorado State Univsersity, his rebuttal to a Whitehouse science adviser’s characterization of his testimony before Congress about weather extremes (they’re not increasing).

What seems to be happening in climate science is the opposite of what our ideals are.  Our conglomerate of climate models did not see the present “puzzling” halt to global warming over the past 15 years or so as CO2 concentrations have continued to rise.  However, instead of being chastened/humbled by this failure, some climate scientists seem emboldened and only are shouting louder about the danger ahead.   Presently we are struggling with a number of hypotheses about why the hiatus has occurred (e.g., drying of the stratosphere which allows more heat to escape the earth, more aerosols in the stratosphere in which incoming sunlight is dimmed some as it was due to the Pinatubo eruption in 1991, ocean take up of extra heat, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current slowing down, causing northern hemisphere continents to cool off.)

UPdating at 8:28 AM:  This from the “current”issue of Science (Feb 28th) about the Global Warming Hiatus (GWH):  It might be due to the cold waters of the eastern Pacific, now reigning year after year almost for the whole time of the “hiatus.” (BTW, you’ve heard of it, haven’t you, that hiatus in rising global temperatures?  If not, write to your local media sources about this.  Its pretty important.)  Science mag is $10 if you want to buy it off the newstand.

What ever the cause of the puzzling hiatus in warming, it was not accounted for in our best models right from the get go, and so, naturally there SHOULD be caution on everyone’s part until we know what happened and can get it right in those many climate models..dammitall!    Unless we know what done it, how else can we have confidence that they are going to be very accurate 100 years out????

———————————————end of climate issue/rant module————————–

Here are a couple of nice sunset scenes from March 4th, that same day it was SO COLD in Ballimore, these to help you cool off personally after I got you pretty worked up with climate issues.  Hope I didn’t spoil your day, and try not to be mad at work thinking about it.

DSC_0067
6:19 PM. Row of Cirrus lenticulars appears below CIrrus/Altostratus layer. I think they were too high to be Altocumulus lenticulars, and dissipated into ice puffs right after this shot.
DSC_0075
6:31 PM. Cirrus spissatus (thicker parts) with strands from Cirrus uncinus under lit by the sun.