Water year status (October through September precip)

As water year winds down, just a couple of weeks left, its worthwhile to see where we are.
As water year winds down, just a couple of weeks left, its worthwhile to see where we are.  Pretty dismal.  You can see why the spring wildflower bloom was minimal around here.  Great December, though!

Can there be any rain before the official end of the month, measurable rain that might improve our dismal 10.83 inches, droughty total?

Not if you believe our own WRF-GFS model run from last night, but, “yes” if you like Canada and the Canadian GEM model.  It has some rain in the area for us on Sunday the 22nd. Here it is:

Valid at 5 PM, Sunday September 22nd. Note green in SE AZ (lower right panel), and blue for moist air around 10,000 feet ASL in the left lower panel. Excellent model run.
Valid at 5 PM, Sunday September 22nd. Note green in SE AZ (lower right panel), and blue for moist air around 10,000 feet ASL in the left lower panel. Excellent model run.

In the meantime, our own model run has the moist plume WAY to the east at that same time, and so no rain here.  Here is that map from the WRF-GFS , as rendered by IPS Meteostar, for moisture around 10,000 feet ASL.  The blue moist plume in the Canadian model above (get microscope out) is the same as the green one below, except that the green moist plume is shoved off to the east and south.  Dang.

Also valid for 5 PM AST, Sunday September 22nd. The green plume here across NM and into the Plains should be compared with the blue plume at this level (700 mb) in the Canadian run above.
Also valid for 5 PM AST, Sunday September 22nd. The green plume here across NM and into the Plains should be compared with the blue plume at this level (700 mb) in the Canadian run above.

Saw some clouds in the moonlight just now. Seems that drier air can’t quite get rid of our summer regime moist plume, one that even yesterday was close enough to us to have produced a thunderhead off toward Mt. Graham and vicinity to the NE. The chances are small we’ll get any more measurable rain, but as in sports, that moist plume seems to be hanging around, and you know that old sports saying that when heavily favored teams let underdogs “hang around”; don’t blow them out as expected, upsets can happen. Well, of course, that’s what I am hoping for, just that bit more rain to at least push us over the 11 inch mark. Its not a BIG hope, just 0.17 inches more before October 1st.

Here are a couple of cloud shots from yesterday:

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7:34 AM. When it seemed the mid-level moisture should be gone, there it is, hanging around. These Altocumulus clouds meant that Cumulus were also likely to form in the above normal heating we have going on now.
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9:38 AM. Some Cirrocumulus (fine granulation with waves in it). Since some areas have shading, not allowed for Cc, it would have to be considered a mix of Altocumulus and Cc (often observed) or just termed Altocumulus since the height is much lower for this complex of clouds than cirriform clouds. Gads, I doubt that’s clear. Oh, well.
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2:09 PM. Thunderheads arose repeated in this area, then dissipated soon after this shot.
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3:12 PM. A little patch of Cumulus humilis, kind of looks like someone leaping at something. No ice visible.

The End

By Art Rangno

Retiree from a group specializing in airborne measurements of clouds and aerosols at the University of Washington (Cloud and Aerosol Research Group). The projects in which I participated were in many countries; from the Arctic to Brazil, from the Marshall Islands to South Africa.