Rainy “mammoths” return; future remains cloudy

We saw some great shafts yesterday, and their content did not disappoint where they landed; 1.61 inches fell at a Saddlebrooke Ranch site, though only 0.06 inches in The Heights.  Also, this piece contains a footnote.

8:15 AM. The usual summer Altocumulus perlucidus deck.
8:15 AM. The usual summer Altocumulus perlucidus deck.
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10:56 AM. Cumulus begin to form under a layer of Altostratus translucidus. Now some people would call that higher layer “Cirrus”, but remember that in our cloud definitions, only one variety of Cirrus can have gray shading in the middle of the day, and that’s Cirrus spissatus, which besides is in much smaller patches that this. I know its crazy, but there it is.
2:19 PM. Some darkening of the sky to the S--SSW toward Tucson. Best if you don't look at radar to see if there's anything there if you want to enhance your cloud interpreting skill set. Just let it come, if it is.
2:19 PM. Some darkening of the sky to the S–SSW toward Tucson. Its best if you don’t look at radar to see if there’s anything down there if you want to enhance your cloud interpreting skill set.  Just let it come, if it is.  Maybe its a spiral band around H. Norbert! (There was a big line of echoes heading this way….)  Not much was going on over the Catalinas.
3:01 PM. Earllier darkening not disappointing! She'll be comin' round the mountain when she comes"!
3:01 PM. Earlier darkening not disappointing! “She’ll be comin’ ’round the mountain when she comes”!  What a great and dramatic scene this was.
3:28 PM. Things are happening fast as the rain shafts from this system tumble down Samaniego/Pusch Ridge!
3:28 PM. Things are happening fast as the rain shafts from this system tumble down Samaniego/Pusch Ridges! Winds in those shafts likely exceeded 50 mph where you see them racing down those slopes, Nice, promising base forming on this side of the mountains, too.
3:56 PM. Stupendous shafts slide along Sam Ridge, while gusty SE winds blow in the Heights, pushing clouds up over and to the north of us.
3:56 PM. Stupendous shafts slide along Sam Ridge, while gusty SE winds blow in the Heights, pushing clouds up over and to the north of us.
4:05 PM. One of the new cloud bases cut loose, but just to the NE of Sutherland Heights. Oh, me, so close.
4:05 PM. One of the new cloud bases cut loose, but just to the NE of Sutherland Heights. Oh, me, so close.
6:43 PM. Day clouds with an OK sunset on the several layers of debris clouds leftover from those great storms.
6:43 PM. Day clouds with an OK sunset on the several layers of debris clouds leftover from those great storms.

The weather ahead….

Just glimpsing the mighty U of AZ mod seems to suggest that there are two more days with substantial rains in the area ahead. Great! So, more great clouds and shafts to shoot, to be a little alliterative there at the end. Charge camera battery.  Check weather service and what Bob has to say as well.  Haven’t got time to make a good forecast….  hahaha, sort of.

The weather WAY ahead

In the long range, I found this important plot from last night interesting, and I know I speak for you as well:

A true "spaghetti" plot from NOAA factory based on last evening's global data. Its valid for Sunday, at 5 PM AST, September 21st.
A true “spaghetti” plot from the NOAA factory based on last evening’s global data. Its valid for Sunday, at 5 PM AST, September 21st.

Now it does appear from this plot that there is a ridge in the future along the West Coast, manifested1 (what a great word) by that hump in all those multicolored lines along the West Coast), a trough in the East (MANIFESTED by the dip in those same lines east of the Rockies). That means that the summer rain season, might actually be extended some instead of ending completely with the current rejuvenation. The summer moisture can extrude farther to the north when a ridge is present in the West. In the daily forecast maps, showers do return to this area after the present tropical regime ends, and that scenario is that bit reinforced by what “spaghetti” says.

The End

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1To sound more erudite, you might use that word today when discussing the outcomes of yesterday’s NCAA college football games with your sports friends.  An example:  “The Washington Huskies defense is not as good as we had hoped it would be as MANIFESTED by the FIFTY-TWO points in gave up to the Eastern Washington Eagles, a lower division team.”

3:56 PM. A little dessert, another shaft for you, a real good one over there on the Gap.
3:56 PM. A little dessert, another shaft for you, a real good one over there on the Gap.

By Art Rangno

Retiree from a group specializing in airborne measurements of clouds and aerosols at the University of Washington (Cloud and Aerosol Research Group). The projects in which I participated were in many countries; from the Arctic to Brazil, from the Marshall Islands to South Africa.