Range of amounts in Catalina, given kind of a marginal moisture situation:
Goose egg to 0.33 inches max, median 0.165 inches, CMP’s best forecast. A friend and met man/prof predicts 0.50 inches here, FYI.
Looking backward
Have felt a little guilty not posting cloud photos from the last storm, Oct 30th, leading my reader into some sadness, maybe even despair the following day when she didn’t see her cloud day reprised. Here are a couple of the characteristic scenes from that day, which includes a shot of a rare drizzling cloud. You will love that shot! Also reprised here is the pioneering technique of novella-sized captions.
8:07 AM. Note how the deteriorating Equestrian Road draws your eye to the bank of Stratocumulus. Quite artistic I think. Think of Bob Dylan’s mournful line, “If today was not an endless highway…1.” Equestrian Trail Road actually ends in Sutherland Heights., just so you don’t lose focus here.8:59 AM. The easy to read sign of a wind shift, one that pushed up the tops of the innocuous Stratocumulus to a thickness where drizzle drops began to form.
9:12 AM: “Drizzle, der it is”, as might be phrased in old TEEVEE show, In Living Color. Shape of lower cloud tells you that the wind is blowing from right to left.10:33 AM. Let’s quote Bob Dylan again, this time in one of his most famous incomprehensible songs, Subterranean Homesick Blues: “You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows; a horse will do.” Well, CMP added those last few words. Bob couldn’t think of something as good as that. The clouds and horse tell you the wind is blowing from right to left. Btw, ome people were so amazed by the words in that Dylan song quoted above that they began to call themselves, “Weathermen.” How crazy was that? Who in the WORLD would want to call himself a “weatherman” that wasn’t one?
1043 AM. The perfect Cumulus congestus? I think so.4:11 PM. Rainbow. Indicates raindrops are falling over there.
4:37 PM. Just pretty, no words needed.
Still windy outside, 6:03 AM to be exact. Looks like the observation of windy is going to be correct. Expecting some nice lenticular clouds to show up today. Have cameras ready. No rain before 7:15 PM. Overnight, watch out!
While living the big western life yesterday by riding a horse, me and my ridin’ pal, Nora B., came across some water flowing in the Sutherland Wash by the rusty gate on the east side of the wash that leads to Coronado National Forest land.
So, with with a 3-5 inch rain on the Catalinas, there WAS some water in the Sutherland here in the Catalina area. It was remarkable that there was no sign whatsoever of water having flowed at the Cottonwoods at the Baby Jesus Trail head on the north side of this flow (shown below), but water was flowing in it a few hundred yards farther downstream.
Nor was there any sign that water had flowed from our big rain in the Sutherland Wash at the back gate to Catalina State Park. In fact, we saw where this Sutherland Wash water disappeared just down from the rusty gate.
So, a lesson has been learned here about wash water flows: it can be flowing modestly between two dry points. Huh. Might not see this again for some time, and it will all be going away soon. Too bad so many of us have to pass hiking or horseback riding to these rare scenes today due to a necessary Pac 12 football TEEVEE vigil beginning just after 12 noon today and lasting through midnight I think. Kind of sad when you have to make choices between two equally worthy activities like these.
Cloudwise, I hope you logged the occurrence of distant Cumulonimbus clouds in the high country on the NW-NE horizon late yesterday afternoon.
The End.
9:18 AM. The Sutherland Wash near the rusty gate.9:54 AM. The apparent source of the water, the tributary Big Rock creek a few hundred yards south of the Baby Jesus trail head at the Cottonwoods.
From your Pima County ALERT gauges, these 24 h totals ending at 3 AM this morning (covers the whole storm):
Gauge 24 Name Location ID# minutes hours —- —- —- —- —- —- —————– ——————— Catalina Area 1010 0.04 Golder Ranch Horseshoe Bend Road in Saddlebrooke 1020 0.20 Oracle Ranger Stati approximately 0.5 mile southwest of Oracle 1040 0.08 Dodge Tank Edwin Road 1.3 miles east of Lago Del Oro Parkway 1050 0.20 Cherry Spring approximately 1.5 miles west of Charouleau Gap 1060 0.55 Pig Spring approximately 1.1 miles northeast of Charouleau Gap 1070 0.08 Cargodera Canyon northeast corner of Catalina State Park 1080 0.08 CDO @ Rancho Solano Cañada Del Oro Wash northeast of Saddlebrooke 1100 0.04 CDO @ Golder Rd Cañada Del Oro Wash at Golder Ranch Road
Santa Catalina Mountains 1030 0.75 Oracle Ridge Oracle Ridge, approximately 1.5 miles north of Rice Peak 1090 0.00 Mt. Lemmon Mount Lemmon 1110 0.75 CDO @ Coronado Camp Cañada Del Oro Wash 0.3 miles south of Coronado Camp 1130 0.24 Samaniego Peak Samaniego Peak on Samaniego Ridge 1140 0.83 Dan Saddle Dan Saddle on Oracle Ridge 2150 0.12 White Tail Catalina Highway 0.8 miles west of Palisade Ranger Station 2280 0.20 Green Mountain Green Mountain 2290 0.24 Marshall Gulch Sabino Creek 0.6 miles south southeast of Marshall Gulch
The absence of precip at Mt. Lemmon is not because the storm went around it, but rather because it fell as snow.
Here in the Heights, 0.08 inches fell between 1 PM and 3 PM. Clouds accompanied the rain.
But what kind? That’s why I am here for you. See way below.
First, some techno-babble. Rain was an on and off event for Catalina and environs in the models run after run. A forecaster friend sent many e-mails that went from “looks good for rain” here, and just about as many that said, “doesn’t look good for rain.” In fact, the (WRF-GFS) model run for just 12 h before it rained, had no rain here, but just a bit to the north. What happened?
Extra sag.
Here’s the amount of trough “sag” (“amplitude”, as we would say) over Arizona predicted just 14 h before it started raining in Catalina yesterday afternoon:
12 forecast valid for 11 AM yesterday morning. Note that the wind maximum is NORTH of Catalina, and over central AZ.
Areas of rain forecast to fall in the 6 h ending at 11 AM AST yesterday morning. Rain just a tad north of Catalina.A computer analysis of the actual winds at 5 PM AST yesterday showing that the trough had more amplitude (sag, droop, etc.) as it crossed Arizona yesterday than was forecast just a day or so in advance. That meant we in Catalina were more embedded in the deeper, and colder clouds with this trough. The jet stream circumcribes those clouds during the cool season here in AZ and most of the SW US. See rain totals at top of blog.
In case you think I am lying again, just because I am a meteorologist and say a lot of wrong things, below is the REAL map for last evening with wind data from rawinsonde balloons on it.
From the Huskies, this 500 mb map over satellite imagery. Strongest winds in our trough run from San Diego, Tuscon, to El Paso, with the tightest spacing of contours and strongest winds at this level in extreme northern Mexico
I hope you’re happy now.
Here’s what the temperature did as the windshift and rain began, in case you missed it:
Yesterday’s temperature trace for Sutherland Heights.
Yesterday’s clouds
The sequence: cloudy, sunny “sucker hole” (one of Biblical proportions), cloudy, raining, sunny, dusty.
6:06 AM. Altostratus and Cirrus combine to produce a gray start to the day.9:44 AM. Lower level moisture layer produces an Altocumulus lenticularis just beyond Pusch Ridge. Seems sky will cloud up real good at this point.Also at 9:44 AM. Looks real bad off to the N, too, in dense Altostratus and lower Sc or Ac.
10:57 AM. Sucker hole! Its real sunny, warming up. You’re thinking as you ride your horse as I was, “What a bad weatherman we have! Said would be windy, cold, and might rain, and yet here is the sun and warmth. What a bad weatherman we have!” (Weatherman is laughing in the background.)11:44 AM. Sucker hole starts to fill in… Haha! “Dreamer” is the horse there.12:10 PM Sucker hole filling in more and more! You’re starting to feel real bad that you made fun of your weatherman, but he’s still laughing at you.
1:17 PM. Rain showing up to west-southwest, upstream. Wind shift hits and ten degree cool off begins. You’re glad you finished your horseback ride none too soon.3:54 PM. A remarkable thing is happening. While there’s plenty of dust in the air. it is also still raining slightly, almost from drizzle-sized drops. Eyeballing the cloud depth at the backside of the rainband clouds from which the drops MAY have fallen from, your CM opined that these drops originated with melted aggregates of needle or sheath ice crystals that, as single crystals before aggregating, were in high concentrations (10s to 100s per liter) in those clouds, implying that a strong ice multiplication phenomenon was at work inside them. Was really a weird scene to have so much SUN and drops falling from clear sky overhead. I would be very proud of you if you noticed this few-minute event at the end of our little rain.
Rawinsonde balloon temperature and dewpoint profile near the time that it rained in clear air from the backside of our rainband. As you can see, cloud tops were around -10 C or a little cooler, pretty warm for raining clouds here. The main part of the rainband likely had somewhat cooler cloud tops. Thought you like to know. This sounding supports the idea that an ice multiplication process was at work, at least on the back shelf of these clouds that rained. I wanted to confirm prior ground speculations with more speculations from the sounding at rain time, though it was launched around 3:30 PM AST way over there by Davis Monthan Airbase. Wondering now if I will finish this blog today….4:34 PM. Shelf of rainband exits the Catalinas. Nice lighting, though.6:32 PM. While the rain may have washed a lot of dust out of the air, more dust invaded the area as soon as the rain ended.
Couldn’t be on “the perch” for that rain here in SH-Catalina late yesterday afternoon (0.14 inches) due to a social engagement, but, serendipitously drove under the 1-2 inch blast of rain, lightning, and 60 mph winds that deluged Oracle Road at Magee and points south. 1.7 inches was measured in 37 minutes at the Ina Road and CDO Wash! You can find more regional totals here. Arrived in that zone just as the bottom unloaded, the most exciting place you can be, as you and storm chasers know, of course. Restaurant, at Ina and Oracle, took quite a bit of water, too
4:43 PM. Updraft holding the flood aloft giving out, first in that brighter spot in the center. In only a few minutes, everything was “fogged out” in torrential , sideways-blowing rain, and vicious cloud-to-ground strikes, as I knew it would be, and you, too, within minutes looking at this cloud base. This is the kind of storm we get here that gets your attention, gets you off the couch and over to the window, if it hasn’t blown in yet.4:50 PM. Not even sure this was the worst of it, but it was reel bad here on Oracle near Magee. Wasn’t very imaginative, just repeating over and over, “This is amazing!”
4:37 PM. Gorgeous shafts of rain obscure parts of the Catalina Mountains next to Catalina State Park, Romero Falls area. Had to pull off and get SOMETHING of this sight. Didn’t see a flow in the CDO later though1. (Mini-harangue down below, way down, about walls.
You can see this stupendous sequence, too, from the U of AZ campus here.
A U of AZ mod from 11 PM last night foretells another active rain day today. This is great. Weeds getting crispy, as seen on yesterday’s horseback ride. Maybe some will get rejuvenated. Expert takes on mods will come out later by Bob and Mike, of course. The scene at White Dog Ranch, by the CDO wash and Lago del Oro as of yesterday:
But also saw some wildlfower stragglers
7:58 AM. Still some of these around, as well as some kind of yellow flowers, too; hangers on through the recent dry conditions.
And, to finish off here, the early signs of a likely good day ahead, Cu sprouting above Ms. Lemmon by mid morning, tops reaching “glaciation temperatures” not much later, and, of course, “thunder on the Lemmon before 1 PM.” Like all “signs”, there are exceptions but they usually work out, like yesterday’s downpours.
10:27 AM. A good sign for an active day, Cumulus beginning to form by mid-morning. Means the amount of moisture is pretty good, the shallow thermals rising off the mountains don’t have to go very far. Also, whitish haze implies high humidity (not pretty, though) because aerosols usually contain particles that respond to humidity and swell up (deliquesce), causing the sun’s light to be more scattered than small, dry particles would do. Big problem back East where sometimes there is no blue sky on the most humid days, just this white murk. Just awful because you can’t even see the clouds around you.11:12 AM. At left, a not very tall turret has left an icy residue, the whitish blur. You would have been getting happier seeing this happen, since things will only get bigger and better as the day wears on. Also, was musing about, “Could this be more ‘ice multiplication'”?, that phenomenon we who study clouds call those that have “too many” crystals for the temperature at the top. Recall that back in the 1950s and 1960s for the most part, scientists thought it took a cloud top temperature lower than -20 C (-4 F) (!) to produce many ice crystals due to cloud chamber measurements on the ground in which there were no, or very few crystals that formed at those cloud chamber temperatures. But, voila, when scientists flew airplanes into clouds looking for ice, they found Ma Nature forming a lot of ice at cloud top temperatures higher than -10 C (14 F) in many cases! This “discrepancy” has not been completely explained even today, and is STILL the focus of airborne research. Amazing.12:49 PM. First thunder on the Lemmon was about now. Excellent!
The End.
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1The CDO wash is no longer visible at Oracle on the east side, thanks to an unnecessary, unbelievable 400 feet of sound wall monstrosity, extended past the neighborhood (Ramsfield Pass) it was supposed to shelter from a few extra decibels. One Catalina neighbor described it as only slightly better looking than the Berlin Wall. Our tax dollars at work, I guess, in some bizarre way. The wash did NOT need to be protected from a few decibals, and I miss seeing in as we used to!
