Looks like we’re having wind today

But will it rain?

Stay tuned until tomorrow evening to find out!

Range of amounts in Catalina,  given kind of a marginal moisture situation:

Goose egg to 0.33 inches max, median 0.165 inches, CMP’s best forecast.  A  friend and met man/prof predicts 0.50 inches here, FYI.

Looking backward

Have felt a little guilty not posting cloud photos from the last storm, Oct 30th, leading my reader into some sadness, maybe even despair the following day when she didn’t see her cloud day reprised.  Here are a couple of the characteristic scenes from that day, which includes  a shot of a rare drizzling cloud.  You will love that shot!  Also reprised here is the pioneering technique of novella-sized captions.

8:07 AM.  Note how the deteriorating Equestrian Road draws your eye to the bank of Stratocumulus.  Quite artistic I think.
8:07 AM. Note how the deteriorating Equestrian Road draws your eye to the bank of Stratocumulus. Quite artistic I think.  Think of Bob Dylan’s mournful line, “If today was not an endless highway…1.”  Equestrian Trail Road actually ends in Sutherland Heights., just so you don’t lose focus here.
8:59 AM.  The easy to read sign of a windshift, one that pushed up the tops of the innocuous Stratocumulus to a thickness where drizzle drops began to form.
8:59 AM. The easy to read sign of a wind shift, one that pushed up the tops of the innocuous Stratocumulus to a thickness where drizzle drops began to form.

 

9:12 AM:  "Drizzle, der it is", as might be phrased in old TEEVEE show, In Living Color.
9:12 AM: “Drizzle, der it is”, as might be phrased in old TEEVEE show, In Living Color. Shape of lower cloud tells you that the wind is blowing from right to left.
10:33 AM.  Let's quote Bob Dylan again, this time in one of his most famous incomprehensible songs, Subterranean Homesick Blues:  "You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows; a horse will do."
10:33 AM. Let’s quote Bob Dylan again, this time in one of his most famous incomprehensible songs, Subterranean Homesick Blues: “You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows; a horse will do.”  Well, CMP added those last few words.  Bob couldn’t think of something as good as that.  The clouds and horse tell you the wind is blowing from right to left.  Btw, ome people were so amazed by the words in that Dylan song quoted above that they began to call themselves, “Weathermen.” How crazy was that?  Who in the WORLD would want to call himself a “weatherman” that wasn’t one?

 

1043 AM.  The perfect Cumulus congestus?  I think so.
1043 AM. The perfect Cumulus congestus? I think so.
4:11 PM.  Rainbow.  Indicates raindrops are falling over there.
4:11 PM. Rainbow. Indicates raindrops are falling over there.

 

4:37 PM.  Just pretty, no words needed.
4:37 PM. Just pretty, no words needed.

Still windy outside, 6:03 AM to be exact.  Looks like the observation of windy is going to be correct.  Expecting some nice lenticular clouds to show up today.   Have cameras ready.   No rain before 7:15 PM.  Overnight, watch out!

The End

———————————

1Best sung by Judy Collins

Correction to big rain; no wash water

While living the big western life yesterday by riding a horse, me and my ridin’ pal, Nora B., came across some water flowing in the Sutherland Wash by the rusty gate on the east side of the wash that leads to Coronado National Forest land.

So, with with a 3-5 inch rain on the Catalinas, there WAS some water in the Sutherland here in the Catalina area.  It was remarkable that there was no sign whatsoever of water having flowed at the Cottonwoods at the Baby Jesus Trail head on the north side of this flow (shown below), but water was flowing in it a few hundred yards farther downstream.

Nor was there any sign that water had flowed from our big rain in the Sutherland Wash at the back gate to Catalina State Park.  In fact, we saw where this Sutherland Wash water disappeared just down from the rusty gate.

So, a lesson has been learned here about wash water flows: it can be flowing modestly between two dry points.  Huh.   Might not see this again for some time, and it will all be going away soon.  Too bad so many of us have to pass hiking or horseback riding to these rare scenes today due to a necessary Pac 12 football TEEVEE vigil beginning just after 12 noon today and lasting through midnight I think.  Kind of sad when you have to make choices between two equally worthy activities like these.

Cloudwise, I hope you logged the occurrence of distant Cumulonimbus clouds in the high country on the NW-NE horizon late yesterday afternoon.

The End.

9:18 AM.  The Sutherland Wash near the rusty gate.
9:18 AM. The Sutherland Wash near the rusty gate.
9:54 AM.  The apparent source of the water, the tributary Big Rock creek a few hundred yards south of the Baby Jesus trail head at the Cottonwoods.
9:54 AM. The apparent source of the water, the tributary Big Rock creek a few hundred yards south of the Baby Jesus trail head at the Cottonwoods.

 

What "big rock"?  This one.
What “Big Rock”? This one.

April showers and why

From your Pima County ALERT gauges, these 24 h totals ending at 3 AM this morning (covers the whole storm):

Gauge                        24                Name                        Location
    ID#      minutes    hours      
    —-     —-       —-        —-       —-         —-       —————–            ———————
Catalina Area
    1010                   0.04      Golder Ranch                 Horseshoe Bend Road in Saddlebrooke
    1020                   0.20      Oracle Ranger Stati          approximately 0.5 mile southwest of Oracle
    1040                   0.08      Dodge Tank                   Edwin Road 1.3 miles east of Lago Del Oro Parkway
    1050                   0.20      Cherry Spring                approximately 1.5 miles west of Charouleau Gap
    1060                   0.55      Pig Spring                      approximately 1.1 miles northeast of Charouleau Gap
    1070                   0.08      Cargodera Canyon             northeast corner of Catalina State Park
    1080                   0.08      CDO @ Rancho Solano          Cañada Del Oro Wash northeast of Saddlebrooke
    1100                   0.04      CDO @ Golder Rd              Cañada Del Oro Wash at Golder Ranch Road

Santa Catalina Mountains
    1030                   0.75      Oracle Ridge                 Oracle Ridge, approximately 1.5 miles north of Rice Peak
    1090                   0.00      Mt. Lemmon                   Mount Lemmon
    1110                   0.75      CDO @ Coronado Camp          Cañada Del Oro Wash 0.3 miles south of Coronado Camp
    1130                   0.24      Samaniego Peak               Samaniego Peak on Samaniego Ridge
    1140                   0.83      Dan Saddle                   Dan Saddle on Oracle Ridge
    2150                  0.12      White Tail                       Catalina Highway 0.8 miles west of Palisade Ranger Station
    2280                  0.20      Green Mountain               Green Mountain
    2290                  0.24      Marshall Gulch               Sabino Creek 0.6 miles south southeast of Marshall Gulch

The absence of precip at Mt. Lemmon is not because the storm went around it, but rather because it fell as snow.

Here in the Heights, 0.08 inches fell between 1 PM and 3 PM.  Clouds accompanied the rain.

But what kind?  That’s why I am here for you.  See way below.

First, some techno-babble.   Rain was an on and off event for Catalina and environs in the models run after run.  A forecaster friend sent many e-mails that went from “looks good for rain” here, and just about as many that said,  “doesn’t look good for rain.”  In fact, the (WRF-GFS) model run for just 12 h before it rained, had no rain here, but just a bit to the north.  What happened?

Extra sag.

Here’s the amount of trough “sag” (“amplitude”, as we would say) over Arizona predicted just 14 h before it started raining in Catalina yesterday afternoon:

12 forecast valid for 11 AM yesterday morning.  Note that the wind maximum is NORTH of Catalina, and over central AZ.
12 forecast valid for 11 AM yesterday morning. Note that the wind maximum is NORTH of Catalina, and over central AZ.

 

Areas of rain forecast to fall in the 6 h ending at 11 AM AST yesterday morning.
Areas of rain forecast to fall in the 6 h ending at 11 AM AST yesterday morning.  Rain just a tad north of Catalina.
A computer analysis of the actual winds at 5 PM AST yesterday showing that the trough had more amplitude (sag, droop, etc.) as it crossed Arizona yesterday than was forecast just a day or so in advance.  That meant we in Catalina were more embedded in the deeper, and colder clouds with this trough.  The jet stream circumcribes those clouds during the cool season here in AZ and most of the SW US.
A computer analysis of the actual winds at 5 PM AST yesterday showing that the trough had more amplitude (sag, droop, etc.) as it crossed Arizona yesterday than was forecast just a day or so in advance. That meant we in Catalina were more embedded in the deeper, and colder clouds with this trough. The jet stream circumcribes those clouds during the cool season here in AZ and most of the SW US.  See rain totals at top of blog.

In case you think I am lying again, just because I am a meteorologist and say a lot of wrong things, below is the REAL map for last evening with wind data from rawinsonde balloons on it.

From the Huskies, this 500 mb map over satellite imagery.  Strongest winds in our trough run from San Diego, Tuscon, to El Paso, with the tightest spacing of contours and strongest winds at this level in extreme northern Mexico
From the Huskies, this 500 mb map over satellite imagery. Strongest winds in our trough run from San Diego, Tuscon, to El Paso, with the tightest spacing of contours and strongest winds at this level in extreme northern Mexico

I hope you’re happy now.

Here’s what the temperature did as the windshift and rain began, in case you missed it:

Yesterday's temperature trace for Sutherland Heights.
Yesterday’s temperature trace for Sutherland Heights.

 

Yesterday’s clouds

The sequence:  cloudy, sunny “sucker hole” (one of Biblical proportions), cloudy, raining, sunny, dusty.

6:06 AM.  Altostratus and Cirrus combine to produce a gray sky.
6:06 AM. Altostratus and Cirrus combine to produce a gray start to the day.
9:44 AM.  Lower level moisture layer produces an Altocumulus lenticularis just beyond Pusch Ridge.  Seems sky will cloud up real good at this point.
9:44 AM. Lower level moisture layer produces an Altocumulus lenticularis just beyond Pusch Ridge. Seems sky will cloud up real good at this point.
Also at 9:44 AM.  Looks real bad off to the N, too, in dense Altostratus and lower Sc or Ac.
Also at 9:44 AM. Looks real bad off to the N, too, in dense Altostratus and lower Sc or Ac.

 

 

10:57 AM.  Sucker hole!  Its real sunny, warming up.   You're thinking as you ride your horse as I was, "What a bad weatherman we have!  Said would be windy, cold, and might rain, and yet here is the sun and warmth.  What a bad weatherman we have!"
10:57 AM. Sucker hole! Its real sunny, warming up. You’re thinking as you ride your horse as I was, “What a bad weatherman we have! Said would be windy, cold, and might rain, and yet here is the sun and warmth. What a bad weatherman we have!” (Weatherman is laughing in the background.)
11:44 AM.  Sucker hole starts to fill in...  Haha!
11:44 AM. Sucker hole starts to fill in… Haha!  “Dreamer” is the horse there.
12:10 PM Sucker hole filling in!
12:10 PM Sucker hole filling in more and more!  You’re starting to feel real bad that you made fun of your weatherman, but he’s still laughing at you.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1:17 PM.  Rain showing up to west-southwest, upstream.  Wind shift hits and ten degree cool off begins.  You're glad you finished your horseback ride none too soon.
1:17 PM. Rain showing up to west-southwest, upstream. Wind shift hits and ten degree cool off begins. You’re glad you finished your horseback ride none too soon.
3:54 PM.  A remarkable thing is happening.  While there's plenty of dust in the air. it is also still raining slightly, almost from drizzle-sized drops.   Eyeballig the cloud depth of the backside of the raining clouds from which the drops MAY have fallen from, CM opines that these drops are comprised of melted aggregates of needle or sheath ice crystals that were, as single crystals before aggregating as they do when in high concentrations, were really in high concentrations in those clouds, implying a strong ice multiplication phenomenon was at work.  Was really a weird scene to have so much SUN and drops falling from clear sky overhead.  I would be very proud of you if you noticed this few minute event at the end of our little rain.
3:54 PM. A remarkable thing is happening. While there’s plenty of dust in the air. it is also still raining slightly, almost from drizzle-sized drops. Eyeballing the cloud depth at the backside of the rainband clouds from which the drops MAY have fallen from, your CM opined that these drops originated with melted aggregates of needle or sheath ice crystals that, as single crystals before aggregating,  were in high concentrations (10s to 100s per liter) in those clouds, implying that a strong ice multiplication phenomenon was at work inside them. Was really a weird scene to have so much SUN and drops falling from clear sky overhead. I would be very proud of you if you noticed this few-minute event at the end of our little rain.

 

 

Rawinsonde balloon temperature and dewpoint profile near the time that it rained in clear air from the backside of our rainband.  As you can see, cloud tops were around -10 C or a little cooler, pretty warm for raining clouds here.  The main part of the rainband likely had somewhat cooler cloud tops.  Thought you like to know.  This sounding supports the idea that an ice multiplication process was at work, at least on the back shelf of these clouds that rained.
Rawinsonde balloon temperature and dewpoint profile near the time that it rained in clear air from the backside of our rainband. As you can see, cloud tops were around -10 C or a little cooler, pretty warm for raining clouds here. The main part of the rainband likely had somewhat cooler cloud tops. Thought you like to know. This sounding supports the idea that an ice multiplication process was at work, at least on the back shelf of these clouds that rained. I wanted to confirm prior ground speculations with more speculations from the sounding at rain time, though it was launched around 3:30 PM AST way over there by Davis Monthan Airbase. Wondering now if I will finish this blog today….
4:34 PM.  Shelf of rainband exits the Catalinas.  Nice lighting, though.
4:34 PM. Shelf of rainband exits the Catalinas. Nice lighting, though.
6:32 PM.  While the rain may have washed a lot of dust out of the air, more dust invaded the area as soon as the rain ended.
6:32 PM. While the rain may have washed a lot of dust out of the air, more dust invaded the area as soon as the rain ended.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The End, finally.

Big thunderblast down Oracle, Pusch Ridge way; a personal report

Couldn’t be on “the perch” for that rain here in SH-Catalina late yesterday afternoon (0.14 inches) due to a social engagement, but, serendipitously drove under the 1-2 inch blast of rain, lightning, and 60 mph winds that deluged Oracle Road at Magee and points south.   1.7 inches was measured in 37 minutes at the Ina Road and CDO Wash!  You can find more regional totals here. Arrived in that zone  just as the bottom unloaded, the most exciting place you can be, as you and storm chasers know, of course.  Restaurant, at Ina and Oracle, took quite a bit of water, too

SONY DSC
4:43 PM. Updraft holding the flood aloft giving out, first in that brighter spot in the center. In only a few minutes, everything was “fogged out” in torrential , sideways-blowing rain, and vicious cloud-to-ground strikes, as I knew it would be, and you, too,  within minutes looking at this cloud base.  This is the kind of storm we get here that gets your attention, gets you off the couch and over to the window, if it hasn’t blown in yet.
SONY DSC
4:50 PM. Not even sure this was the worst of it, but it was reel bad here on Oracle near Magee. Wasn’t very imaginative, just repeating over and over, “This is amazing!”

 

4:37 PM.  Gorgeous shafts of rain obscure the Catalina Mountains by Catalina State Park, Romero Falls.
4:37 PM. Gorgeous shafts of rain obscure parts of the Catalina Mountains next to Catalina State Park, Romero Falls area.  Had to pull off and get SOMETHING of this sight.  Didn’t see a flow in the CDO later though1. (Mini-harangue down below, way down, about walls.

You can see this stupendous sequence, too, from the U of AZ campus here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A U of AZ mod from 11 PM last night foretells another active rain day today.  This is great.  Weeds getting crispy, as seen on yesterday’s horseback ride.    Maybe some will get rejuvenated. Expert takes on mods will come out later by Bob and Mike, of course.  The scene at White Dog Ranch, by the CDO wash and Lago del Oro as of yesterday:DSCN5341

But also saw some wildlfower stragglers

7:58 AM.  Still some of these around, as well as some kind of yellow flowers, too, hangers on through the recent dry conditions.
7:58 AM. Still some of these around, as well as some kind of yellow flowers, too;  hangers on through the recent dry conditions.

And, to finish off here, the early signs of a likely good day ahead, Cu sprouting above Ms. Lemmon by mid morning, tops reaching “glaciation temperatures” not much later, and, of course, “thunder on the Lemmon before 1 PM.” Like all “signs”, there are exceptions but they usually work out, like yesterday’s downpours.

SONY DSC
10:27 AM. A good sign for an active day, Cumulus beginning to form by mid-morning. Means the amount of moisture is pretty good, the shallow thermals rising off the mountains don’t have to go very far. Also, whitish haze implies high humidity (not pretty, though) because aerosols usually contain particles that respond to humidity and swell up (deliquesce), causing the sun’s light to be more scattered than small, dry particles would do. Big problem back East where sometimes there is no blue sky on the most humid days, just this white murk. Just awful because you can’t even see the clouds around you.
SONY DSC
11:12 AM. At left, a not very tall turret has left an icy residue, the whitish blur. You would have been getting happier seeing this happen, since things will only get bigger and better as the day wears on. Also, was musing about, “Could this be more ‘ice multiplication'”?, that phenomenon we who study clouds call those that have “too many” crystals for the temperature at the top. Recall that back in the 1950s and 1960s for the most part, scientists thought it took a cloud top temperature lower than -20 C (-4 F) (!) to produce many ice crystals due to cloud chamber measurements on the ground in which there were no, or very few crystals that formed at those cloud chamber temperatures. But, voila, when scientists flew airplanes into clouds looking for ice, they found Ma Nature forming a lot of ice at cloud top temperatures higher than -10 C (14 F) in many cases! This “discrepancy” has not been completely explained even today, and is STILL the focus of airborne research.  Amazing.
SONY DSC
12:49 PM. First thunder on the Lemmon was about now. Excellent!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The End.

 

 

 

 

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1The CDO wash is no longer visible at Oracle on the east side, thanks to an unnecessary, unbelievable 400 feet of sound wall monstrosity,  extended past the neighborhood (Ramsfield Pass) it was supposed to shelter from a few extra decibels.  One Catalina neighbor described it as only slightly better looking than the Berlin Wall.  Our tax dollars at work, I guess, in some bizarre way.  The wash did NOT need to be protected from a few decibals, and I miss seeing in as we used to!