California Niño – Cloud-maven

El Niño Risin’, “Cal Niño” persists; another comet passes over Tucson?

“I think a year ago I sent you the early alert that Eel Ninyo is coming!!! Well, I think I was about 1 year early … the real deal seems to be gearing up for a more major appearance this year … check it out: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

“My fingers are crossed for a much more typical event for 2015/16, but then again we seem to be in a very similar place as we were last year at this time (caveat part of e-mail) only a bit warmer in the tropics.”

“We shall see!”

—-from Nate M., NOAA SW Fisheries Center El Niño expert, personal communication, received just yesterday! Excitement abounds!

But, we will see as well…

Below, a different SST anomaly visual from NOAA:

Global sea surface temperature anomalies from NOAA, as of March 30th. The eastern Pacific and eastern equatorial waters are aflame, figuratively speaking, of course. Both the “Classic Niño” (off Peru) and “The New Niño” regions, the latter in the mid and eastern Pacific, have above normal water temperatures!

There is a LOT of warmer than normal water out there! As we know now, the newly discovered “California Niño” helped tropical storms whisk into Arizona late last summer and fall stronger and wetter than they normally would be by providing warmer waters than normal over which they traveled while heading toward AZ. Think of something like the highly-caffeinated “Jolt Cola” in sea surface temperatures for those storms.

Slackening onshore winds along the West Coast last spring and summer created the Cal Niño, something now known to occur from time to time over the decades. And that warm water wasn’t much perturbed by strong storms during the winter, ones that can mix colder water to the surface. The Cal Niño means that IF any storm strikes the West Coast, they would be a little wetter than usual since the air holds more water in it when its warmer.

In the meantime, the much-heralded El Niño of a year ago¹ deflated like a New England Patriots game time football into a pile of nothing, wrecking the expectations of frequent late winter and spring rains in the Great SW. Thankfully we had that ONE great, several inches rainstorm at the end of January² and a couple of vegetation-sustaining rains thereafter.

What does all this mean for our immediate future? Will the late spring be wet? Will we have a great summer rain season?

I don’t know.

But, next winter could be great!

Today’s clouds and weather

Rain is expected to be around today, sprinkles, maybe some thunder due to a weak low aloft passing to the south of us. Cloud drift is supposed to be from the east off the Catalinas, and with the unusual warmth, the day will LOOK like a day in July or August, nice Cumulus building off the mountains in the later morning, reaching the ice-forming level fairly quickly, and then, as you know, out pops the virga and precip. So, it will be a nice photogenic day for you. Check this nice graphic of the expected temperature profiles today from the U of A.

The weather WAY ahead

Recall that today and tomorrow, at one time, as was mentioned here, we were going to experience one of the greatest storms ever observed for this time of year. Well, today’s situation is what’s left of that forecast, a coupla puny showers around, and, sure a trough is here all right, but what a disappointment!

In the meantime, forgetting about the perpetual disappointments for big rains foretold about two weeks in advance, we are once again excited by another great rain here in the far model horizon of just two weeks from now, in mid-April!

Valid at 5 PM AST, April 14th. Could put a real dent in our usual April dryness! — Valid at 5 PM AST, April 14th, only 348 h from now! Could put a real dent in our usual April dryness! Colored regions denote those areas where the WRF-GOOFUS model has calculated through VERY sophisticated means, where precipitation has fallen in the prior 12 h! This from global obs taken at 5 PM AST last evening.

Yesterday’s clouds and more

From two days ago. Another comet passed over. Didn't read anything about it, though. — From two days ago. Another comet passed over. Didn’t read anything about it, though. I guess the astronomers have seen enough comets. Probably a little jaded by now by so many of them.

Close up. You can see its trailing ice and dust, burned off by the sun. Its great to live in a place where so many comets go over! I think that’s two or three in the past year!

Awful green here in Arizona. I wonder how many people know how green it is here? I think a LOT of people have no idea how green it is here (at this time of year).

5:58 PM. Thought for a fun shot I would show you some castellanus from yesterday.

6:45 PM. Sunset. — 6:45 PM. Post sunset, Altocumulus under patches of Altostratus, or, Cirrus spissatus if you like.

The End

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¹Not just here, but by people that know more than I do, like the CPC.

²Water is still coming down from the mountains from that 4-6 incher in the Catalina Mountains, water that can be seen still pouring over great boulders in the higher reaches of our mountains producing the morning “glistening rocks” phenomenon. “Glistening Rocks”…. That would be a great title for a love song, a sad one, because as we all know, sooner or later, we won’t see the water producing glistening rocks anymore from the big January rain. So it would have to be about a love that starts out so strong, but then fades over time, finally disappearing altogether.

Cloud stories, continued

Our last cloud chapter was rudely interrupted by drought, with the last “rain”, an embarrassing one, of just 0.01 inches here in Sutherland Heights a week ago. Areas around us, of course, got more.

6:40 AM. "Etched glass" Cirrus. — 6:40 AM. “Etched glass” Cirrus fibratus. The flocculent patches (center right) are newly formed ones in which the larger ice crystals that are falling out of the stranded regions, have not yet gotten big enough to fall out, but they will follow that same course.

7:08 AM. CIrrus radiatus, or at least the perspective makes it LOOK like its converging in the upwind direction. — 7:08 AM. CIrrus fibratus/uncinus radiatus, or at least the perspective makes it LOOK like its converging in the upwind direction. Had to pull off for this shot, it was SO NICE!

1:32 PM. Surprise of the day was seeing real Cumulus clouds forming over our Catalina Mountains underneath patchy Cirrus and Altocumulus clouds. — 1:32 PM. Surprise of the day was seeing real Cumulus (mediocris) clouds forming over our Catalina Mountains underneath patchy Cirrus and Altocumulus clouds. Note the rarely seen pileus cap cloud, indicating a good updraft.

1:32 PM. Close up of the rarely seen pileus cap cloud. Would really like to have been in it, and then feel the bump when the Cu top rises through it!

2:04 PM. Nice to see some unexpected shafting around, even if they were weak, indicating the tops were not terrifically high. With bases at the freezing level yesterday (14 kft above sea level), ice would not form until lower than normal temperatures, maybe around -15 C (5 F), but then would increase with each lower temperature. Here guessing were likely around -25 C, 25,000 feet or so above sea level due to the weakness of the shaft. Got a higher later. Very iffy discussion here, but that's what CMP thinks. — 2:04 PM. Nice to see some unexpected shafting around, even if they were weak, indicating the tops were not terrifically high. With bases at the freezing level yesterday (14 kft above sea level), ice would not form until lower than normal temperatures, maybe around -15 C (5 F), but then would increase with each lower temperature. Here guessing were likely around -25 C, 25,000 feet or so above sea level due to the weakness of the shaft. Got a higher later. Very iffy discussion here, but that’s what CMP thinks.

4:31 PM. Evening closed out with R--- ("triple minus"--hardly noticeable RAIN not drizzle, please) from mid-level clouds, Altocumulus being the lower, lumpy gray patches, and Altostratus Cumulonimbogenitus, being the one producing the sprinkles, not drizzle. — 4:31 PM. Evening closed out with R— (“triple minus”–hardly noticeable RAIN not drizzle, please) from mid-level clouds, Altocumulus being the lower, lumpy gray patches, and Altostratus Cumulonimbogenitus, being the one producing the sprinkles, not drizzle.

Today’s weather….

Well, its no fun telling folks what they already know, but will say it looks tentatively, relying on the U of AZ 11 PM AST run of last night, like a day similar to yesterday, except a cloudier morning, which I just saw was the case by looking outside right now at 5:49 AM. Cu develop, tops should get cold enough to produce ice-hence-rain and shafting. Hope its measurable today. Also, as you know, moisture levels increase over the next couple of days with substantial rains likely.

In a model curiosity, three consecutive runs of the US WRF-GFS model, beginning with the 5 AM AST, 11 AM AST, and 5 PM AST runs, all from yesterday, had the remains of tropical storm Norbert passing directly over San Diego with substantial rains there. What made it even more likely to happen was that the Canadian model run from yesterday’s 5 PM AST global data, ALSO had the remaining little center of Norbert passing over San Diego, Tuesday, September 9th! Amazing since Norbert is such a tiny feature in our models, at least by the time it gets near San Diego.

As reported here, a month or so ago, the newly discovered oscillation in ocean temperatures, called the “California Niño”, is helping to keep Norbert going longer as it trudges to the NNW just off the Baja coast. Water temperatures off Cal are warmer than usual this summer due to weak onshore flow for the past few months. When the flow is normal, it not only sculpts plants and trees along the Cal coast, but also causes upwelling of COLD water, horrible for beach goers.

Below, examples of wind sculpting¹:

Wind sculpted at Bodega — Bodega Bay, CA, just north of Frisco, that windy, foggy, “Stratus-ee”, and cold summer city. Note Stratus in the background hwew.rolling in off the cold offshore waters. No summer thunderstorms here! Imagine how awful it would be to live at this spot. Winters are pretty nice, though, often with frequent rains and wind….to balance things out some.

The End.

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¹When a realtor shows you property with scenes like these around it, you don’t want to buy there, even if its not windy that day. If you’re a realtor, you’d want to have bushes and trees like this trimmed up real good. hahaha.

“Volcano” erupts north of the Tucson Mountains; California Niño, too, along the Cal coast

The documentary photos, below, of a modest-looking Cumulus congestus cloud yesterday afternoon that lept up to the stratosphere in the 20 minutes that cloud maven person wasn’t watching. Yours truly, while videoing it from start to finish, only got two still shots in those 20 min due to a distraction¹; was not taking photos of every cloud every three minutes as the “compulsar”, CMP likes to do:

1:51 PM. zzzzzzzzzzz. Not much likely to happen. Cloud is isolated over a flat area all by itself, no pals to group along with, so its certainly going to fade away after the itty-bitty amount ice on the right said produces maybe a sprinkle. — 1:51 PM. zzzzzzzzzzz. Not much likely to happen. Cloud is isolated over a flat area all by itself, no pals to group along with, so its certainly going to fade away after the itty-bitty amount ice on the right (frizzy part) produces, oh, maybe a sprinkle or slight rain shaft. Maybe I’ll take a nap while things are calm.

20 minutes later….something unbelievable has happened: a “volcano” of sorts erupted from this moderate, isolated cloud. I have never been so embarrassed in all my life not to have seen this coming. But it was also so wondrous at the same time.

2:11 PM. Wha? Can it possibly be the same cloud? It was. LOOK at that rain shaft! Also, in the middle,about halfway up, that dark thing almost looks like vortex. Kinda reminded me of the Mt. St. Helens eruption.

Also seen was the rarely seen Cumulus congestus pileus tops here and there indicating strong uprushing currents pushing into the air above the top, and rushing up so fast, the air above the top is pushed up and starts to condense into a cloud before the actual cloud top reaches it. See below:

2:18 PM. Pileus cap cloud tops Cumulus congestus turret. If you're in an airplane with instrumentation, you really want to penetrate this one to get high measurements of liquid water, maybe two or three grams or so. — 2:18 PM. Pileus cap cloud tops a rapidly rising Cumulus congestus turret over the Catalina Mountains. If you’re in an airplane with cloud instrumentation, you really want to penetrate this one right hear the top to get high measurements of liquid water, maybe two or three grams or so.

5:14 PM. This thunderstorm was almost in the same exact area as the "volcano." — 5:14 PM. This thunderstorm was almost in the same exact area as the “volcano.”

5:14 PM. It looked like a promising sitiuation was propagating down from N of Charouleau Gap, but the new bases ahead of outflow winds crept closer to the mountains instead of extending out over the lower terrain and Oro Valley. This led to a dramatic rainshaft scene that CMP missed because he didn't bail on a dinner situation at a restaurant. I guess it was quite a show when it cut loose a few minutes later, with a great rainbow, I hear. — 5:14 PM. It looked like a promising situation was propagating down from N of Charouleau Gap, but the new bases ahead of outflow winds crept closer to the mountains instead of extending out over the lower terrain and Oro Valley. This led to a dramatic rainshaft scene that CMP missed because he didn’t bail on a dinner situation at a restaurant. I guess it was quite a show when it cut loose a few minutes later, with a great rainbow, I hear.

7:06 PM. Did catch the lastbit of the show in these Cumulonimbus mamma clouds. So, something to show for having a good time with friends at a local Goose Plaza restaurant.

For the full day yesterday, see the U of AZ time lapse. Its a rolling archive and so it will gone if you read this after today.

Time of the hurricane, and of the California Niño

Those model generated ones, that is, that are shown to come close to Arizona; “close” being within 500 miles or so, which, astronomically speaking, is incredibly close.

This time of year, we look forward to the possibilities that one of the many hurricanes that affect the Mexican Pacific will rush up Baja coast, angle northeastward and cross the border into Arizona. Remember that one in 1976 that hit Yuma with 76 mph winds? Yeah, like that one. Go here to read about it if you don’t believe me that Yuma experienced hurricane force winds from a hurricane. Mt. San Jacinto in southern Cal got over 14 inches of rain, too.

While the computer models have a tough time generating hurricanes in their right places too far in advance, they are remarkable in how many they generate, considering that those hurricanes pop up out of loose-looking cloudy masses, with weak areas of low pressure associated with equally, loosely-organized upper level features. To have a tropical storm leap out of that cloud mass, the upper air pattern has to spread the air aloft over those clouds so that more air can come into the developing storm at the bottom. And, as more thunderheads (though they don’t usually thunder much) pile upward, more warming aloft occurs, and that helps the air spread away even faster.

Today, we have a coupla interesting predictions, one by our Canadian friends, showing a tropical storm roaring up the coast of Baja just next Thursday. This from their 5 PM AST model run yesterday. The remnant of that TS goes into southern California! This is just 5-6 days away, which, in model time, is not that far off and usually is fairly reliable.

But, USA model (WRF-GFS) from 5 PM AST last evening, has no such feature! See below. Boo-hoo.

Still, something interesting has shown up in our own USA model about two weeks out that seems to be due to something unusual that’s happening off the West Coast. A new phenomenon, reported in Nature (!) and akin to the “The New Niño” (the one in Pacific Ocean Region 3.4) and the “Classic NIño” (the one we heard about as kids where the water off Peru gets real warm), has recently been dubbed, the California Niño.

This is an oscillation caused by the slackening of the onshore winds along the Cal coast. Those winds, when as strong as they usually are, cause really cold water to boil up to the surface; when those winds become slackers, the water warms tremendously.

This year the water temperatures offshore of the Cal coastline, are way warmer than usual. No wetsuits needed off Monterey this year (a friend says)! These warmer waters will help tropical storms stay together a little longer when they are directed north and northeastward toward southern California and Arizona. Yay!

This may explain why a hurricane/strong tropical storm is shown drifting to the NW only a few hundred miles SW of San Diego, as shown below, in about two weeks. The eye-popping stat in that model projection, is that the low pressure in the center is still as low as 982 millibars when its fairly close to San DIego! This shows that the models knows about the water temperatures out there (that kind of data is always being fed into them), and it thinks that a pretty good sized tropical low can exist that far close to San Diego with water temperatures as warm as they are.

All we have to do now is wait for the right upper air “steering” pattern, to keep the western motif here, so that those stronger storms are directed thisaway, to continue yet again with the western theme.

The prediction shows that the model thinks that conditions are warm enough to support such a storm relatively close to southern California. What grabs your attention is the 982 mb central pressure in the eye of that predicted storm two weeks from now. Let us not forget the near hurricane that blasted southern California in September 1939, likely having occurred during “Cal Nino” conditions.

Check these predictions out, first from Canada, where a magnifiying glass will be required to view details:

Valid Thursday morning, Aug. 21st at 5 AM AST. The storm is moving N.

Valid for the afternoon of August 29th. This one is moving NW.

The reason for the excitement is that troughs and jet streams are beginning to creep farther south and when they do that, sometimes they can “steer”, to use a western term again here, a storm toward the north and northeast. In June, July, and into much of August, the many hurricanes that form off Mexico and central America drift west and west-northwest only to die over the cooler waters north of the Equator.

More showers and thunderstorms are buiilding on the Catalinas! And late afternoon or evening rains are foretold here.

The End.

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¹Ironically, the distraction was having his computer almost stop working because he had filled up the “C” hard drive with too many photos and almost nothing worked any more! Note: Put photos on a different HD. Leave at least 10 percent of the C hard drive “file-less”, so’s it can work properly.