Powerful hurricane to not enter Arizona even though the model shows this happening; horse story

Many of you probably were gasping for air after having seen the WRF-GFS model outputs from last evening’s 5 PM AST global data. A large hurricane, really more the size of its typhoonic big brothers in the western north Pacific, and one that also dwarfs the late tropical remnant, “Newton” ,  that came through here… Continue reading Powerful hurricane to not enter Arizona even though the model shows this happening; horse story

“Tweener” era begins today after pre-dawn sprinkles; one photo has birds in it

We’ll have to suffer through  a few days for the next storm, i. e., experience sunny weather with pleasant temperatures.  Its amazing that people all over America come to Tucson to experience sunny days with pleasant temperatures! 0.45 inches total in The Heights of Catalina in this latest round of rain, sounds of rain.    Actually,… Continue reading “Tweener” era begins today after pre-dawn sprinkles; one photo has birds in it

Another Catalina rain day for May 2015

We received 0.08 inches here in “The Heights” for a third day with measurable rain in May already.  0.12 inches fell at the Bridge on Golder Ranch Dr. , while Saddlebrooke got up to a quarter of an inch (as estimated by CMP) in a tiny streak of clouds that erupted into shallow Cumulonimbus clouds,… Continue reading Another Catalina rain day for May 2015

Canadian model wetting it up for SE AZ on the 10th; US mod just says “no” to AZ rain

Hot off the Canadian presses from last evening’s global data from 5 PM yesterday, this exciting depiction (from Enviro Can) for Friday afternoon, the 10th.  Note green and yellow regions in all of the SW, lower right panel!  Note big upper trough over Vegas, upper left panel.  Its all good, and, this being the 5th,… Continue reading Canadian model wetting it up for SE AZ on the 10th; US mod just says “no” to AZ rain

Hoping Canadians win model forecast duel

This from Canada last night for April 8th at 5 PM AST:  appropriate descriptor for AZ; “juicy.”  This was such a great find early this morning! Note deep upper low at 500 mb in eastern Cal (upper left panel) and gigantic surface low centered in Four Corners area (upper right panel). Would almost surely mean… Continue reading Hoping Canadians win model forecast duel

Rejected! (that 06 Z mod run from last night with no rain here for 15 days)

I had to laugh when I saw the very latest WRF-GFS model run, the run from last night’s 11 PM AST (06 Zulu) that had not ONE green pixel of rain over Catalina in the next 15 days!  You can see that really bad run here, from IPS MeteoStar.  You’ll get quite a guffaw out of… Continue reading Rejected! (that 06 Z mod run from last night with no rain here for 15 days)

Rain and when today

For those in a hurry:  no rain before 5 PM AST, rain beginning between 5 PM and 8:42 PM; most of rain after midnight into mid-day.   Since people forget, I’ve added a musical reminder there: “After midnight, we’re gonna let it all hang down.”  Could be that incoming front talkin’  to us. It will also be… Continue reading Rain and when today

Looking for rain in all the wrong places…

Like in our best USA! models. Pretty upset this early AM to find that the US’s Weather Forecasting and Research-Global Forecast System (WRF-GFS) model run, a model costing millions of dollars BTW, ingested last night’s 5 PM AST global data, BUT then threw up an identical twin that matched the Canadian Enviro Can model output… Continue reading Looking for rain in all the wrong places…

Future weather has a lot of AZ rain, but its more uncertain using US models

Here’s is the latest model run from our USA WRF-GFS (aka, “goofus”, as the Europeans might call it, looking down their noses at our inferior weather predicting model compared with their “ECMWF” model as described (here) in the November 9th issue of Science. It was an upsetting read, BTW. Seems the Euros use bigger, faster computers… Continue reading Future weather has a lot of AZ rain, but its more uncertain using US models