Future weather has a lot of AZ rain, but its more uncertain using US models

Here’s is the latest model run from our USA WRF-GFS (aka, “goofus”, as the Europeans might call it, looking down their noses at our inferior weather predicting model compared with their “ECMWF” model as described (here) in the November 9th issue of Science.

It was an upsetting read, BTW. Seems the Euros use bigger, faster computers than we do, ones that they were able to afford by charging a lot of money to see the results.  Very bad.

In case you want the meat of that Science article:  “From the BEGINNING (this writer’s emphasis) ECMWF has been the world champ in medium range forecasting. Today ECMWF forecasts remain useful into the next week, out to 8.5 days.  That leaves the rest of the forecasting world, inculding the U. S. National Weather Service with its less powerful computer, in the dust by a day or more.”

What have our guys (includes women) been doing all these years?  (Just kidding, maybe.)

OK, onward with what we have to work with…..

This WRF-GFS run is just from last nights 11 PM global data crunch, the VERY latest as of this writing.  I picked it out from earlier runs to show because this run latest has a lot of rain in Arizona.   Namely, it was a subjective call to display a few snapshots from it.  Displaying the results of this run has nothing to do with scientific objectivity.  Enjoy; it might not be real rain that falls to the ground, only real in the model’s calculations.  Still, its great to see and think about.

Instead of showing the full size of these model outputs as I normally would do, I thought I would size them in proportion to their credibility based on the Science article.  We can’t see the better ECMWF-British model results unless we pay a lot of money, so this will have to do.  Unless you click on these below, you’ll have to use a microscope…

Valid for November 29th, 11 PM AST, only 264 hours away!
Valid for 11 AM AST, November 30th, 12 h later
Valid for 11 PM AST, November 30th–off and on rains now for TWENTY-FOUR hours!
Valid for 11 AM AST, December 1st. Still raining around here.
Valid for 11 PM AST, December 1st. Rain still falling in the 12 h ending at this time.












So, once again, our late November-early December storm has returned to the model fold. Its been coming and going.   For example, the 5 PM AST global model run had NO RAIN in AZ, so I didn’t want to show those results.

 But just ahead….this

In the nearer future…..  Seems the Environment Canada computer model, built around the SUPERIOR ECMWF model, has rain here in about 48 h from now resulting from  a tiny, weak low that ejects from the deep tropics right over us. Cool, though the air itself would be warmer and more moist than we usually see at this time of year in a rain situation (higher dewpoints).  Must regard this as a serious rain threat now.  Here’s a snapshot of that rain day from Enviro Can (see lower right panel for 12 h rain totals and areas covered–would fallen overnight tomorrow night into Wednesday morning.  The whole better than the US model runs is here.

Yesterday’s clouds

Another fabulous early winter day in Arizona.  Out of state license plates picking up in number.  Can’t blame ’em.   Here’s a sample of yesterday’s skies and another great sunset:

2:06 PM. Cumulus humilis and fractus (shred clouds).
5:23 PM. Small Cumulus and distant Cirrus add highlights to an Arizona sunset.
5:25 PM, looking south.