Category Archives: Local climate

Climate issues, Definitions, Local climate, The weather ahead

Likes to be troughy but isn’t

Lotta high temperature records falling in Arizona lately, info courtesy of U of WA Husky researcher, Mark Albright’s web page here.

Arizona daily record temperatures and precipitation

SXUS75 KPSR 150830
RERPSR
RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
130 AM MST FRI MAR 15 2013
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SET AT PHOENIX AND YUMA...
 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT PHOENIX AZ 
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 91 SET IN 2007.
 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96 DEGREES WAS SET AT YUMA AZ 
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 95 SET IN 1934.
$$

SXUS75 KTWC 150104
RERTWC
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
535 PM MST THU MAR 14 2013 
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SET FOR THURSDAY MAR 14...
LOCATION                  RECORD  OLD RECORD
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT         92    87/2007
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT      85    83/2007
KITT PEAK                   71    71/1972
PICACHO PEAK                90    90/2007
$$

SXUS75 KPSR 150013
RERPSR
RECORD EVENT REPORT...UPDATED 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
0511 PM MST THU MAR 14 2013
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SET AT PHOENIX AND YUMA...
 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT PHOENIX AZ TODAY. 
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 91 SET IN 2007.
 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96 DEGREES WAS SET AT YUMA AZ TODAY. 
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 95 SET IN 1934.
$$

SXUS75 KFGZ 150057
RERFGZ
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF, AZ
556 PM MST THU MAR 14 2013
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON MAR 14 2013...
CITY (PERIOD OF RECORD)            NEW HIGH      PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
PAYSON (1949 - 2013)                   78          78 (TIED)  IN  2007
PRESCOTT (1899 - 2013)                 77          77 (TIED)  IN  2007
PRESCOTT AIRPORT (1948 - 2013)         79          78         IN  2007
SELIGMAN (1905 - 2013)                 81          81 (TIED)  IN  2007
THESE RECORDS ARE PRELIMINARY PENDING OFFICIAL REPORTS.
$$
CO

SXUS75 KPSR 142314
RERPSR
RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
0414 PM MST THU MAR 14 2013
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SET AT PHOENIX AND YUMA...
 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 93 DEGREES WAS SET AT PHOENIX AZ TODAY. 
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 91 SET IN 2007.
 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96 DEGREES WAS SET AT YUMA AZ TODAY. 
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 95 SET IN 1934.
$$

SXUS75 KTWC 140034
RERTWC
RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
534 PM MST WED MAR 13 2013
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE BROKEN AT THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT THIS 
AFTERNOON... 
 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 89 DEGREES WAS SET AT THE TUCSON 
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY. THE OLD RECORD OF 88 DEGS WAS SET IN 
1989.
$$

Here's what a giant blob of anomaly over the West looks like;
not sure I've seen one this big before, kind of a "planet out of control" map:
The height anomaly pattern at 500 millibars for 5 PM AST yesterday. They don't get bigger than this.
The height anomaly pattern at 500 millibars for 5 PM AST yesterday. They don’t get bigger than this.  To reach the height of the 500 millibar pressure level you have to go up in a hot air balloon higher than usual because the pressure doesn’t change so rapidly when you go up in a hot air balloon and its hot (air has lower density).  But, its cold in New Hampshire, too cold for late March so perhaps we can take some solace in that as part of another “warm in the West, cold in the East” pattern.  (See low height anomaly off New England coast.)


The green line is "climatology" at 500 millibars.  Note how that green line bulges southward in the Southwest indicating a prevalence of troughs at this time of year.  We have the opposite now, but its fading fast.
The green line is “climatology” at 500 millibars. Note how that green line bulges southward in the Southwest indicating a prevalence of troughs at this time of year. We have the opposite now, but its fading fast.  Look at how the yellow and green lines are out of phase.




The weather ahead


LOTS of troughs in our future once this bag of hot air over us dissipates, but not one of those troughs is far enough south or strong enough to bring rain over the next two weeks. Ugh. Our best chance for anything still remains around the 21st–a trough in the area guaranteed, but only the thermometer will get a workout from it, cooling off from the warmth of the previous day, likely some noticeable wind, as per usual in the spring with trough passages.


So, that’s about it for weather, thermometer getting some work, the anemometer some, too, but not your rain gauge.  Oh, me.


However, with approaching troughs, there’ll be some nice Cirrus clouds and with them, occasional nice sunsets and sunrises in the days ahead.


The End.

	

	
	




	
	

				

			Cirrus clouds, Definitions, Ice crystals, Local climate, The weather ahead, The weather WAY ahead (10 days or more)
		

			
“The Seeds of Uncinus”; a review

		

			 		

	


		

		
Starring Justin Bieber as Harry Potter in the upcoming 12th Harry Potter movie, the musical….


(There, that should grab some attention.  But then people would be disappointed, maybe mad, but still they might see something here about Cirrus uncinus clouds that they didn’t know before.)


Had some great Cirrus uncinus clouds yesterday!  I was not thinking about uncinus at all yesterday, but rather amorphous blobs of Cirrus, but there they were.    Maybe you saw those “Ci unc” with their great tails hanging down, streaking across the sky.  And there was something “wrong”, too.


What was it?  Its rare when it happens.


The tails were going the “wrong” way, evident later in the day.   As streamers of crystals from the “head” of Ci unc trail out, the wind nearly always decreases going downward, and the tails fall back behind the head TOWARD the west, or toward whichever way the wind is blowing FROM.  Yesterday, the tails went in front of the head, a real odditity telling you the wind was a little stronger below the head.  Hope some of you logged that anomaly.  Its hard to get your CMJ T-shirt without having noticed that.


Some photos, too many, no doubt, but that’s what I do, and I’m quite good at it:


9:07.  "Angel's hair" passes to the south of Catalina.  Cirrus uncinus and Cirrus fibratus, maybe a thin layer of Cirrostratus above it.
9:07. “Angel’s hair” passes to the south of Catalina. Cirrus uncinus and Cirrus fibratus, maybe a thin layer of Cirrostratus above it. Note the long tails streaming away from Catalina (center).


9:21 AM.  Cirrus fibratus (no hook/tuft visible at top because you can't see it here) and Cirrus spissatus eject toward Catalina.  Just thought this was pretty, nothing to do with today's discussion.
9:21 AM. Cirrus fibratus (no hook/tuft visible at top because you can’t see it here) and Cirrus spissatus eject toward Catalina. Just thought this was pretty, nothing to do with today’s discussion.


12:38 PM.  Arrows all over in this mainly batch of Ci unc shows seed cloud specks that lead to them much later.
12:38 PM. Arrows all over in this mainly batch of Ci unc shows seed cloud specks that lead to them much later.


12:15 PM.  The heavier Cirrus forms have departed and these delicate ones were to dominate the rest of the day.  So pretty.  The hooky ones are Ci unc.
12:15 PM. The heavier Cirrus forms have departed and these delicate ones were to dominate the rest of the day. So pretty. The hooky ones are Ci unc.


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


But how do these long-tailed Cirrus get that way? How do they start?


With seed clouds, cloud specks with tiny quasi-spherical ice crystals in them, sometimes the ice called “germs” because they’re so small, maybe 10-20 microns in size; tiny dots.


Next is a sequence showing the fleck seed cloud stage to the tail growing stage of Cirrus uncinus, in which the larger ice crystals start to fall out. Unfortunately, by the time the tail is as long as those seen in these shots, those original Cirrus fleck clouds might be a 100 miles away.


Now, is any of this information useful for everyday life?  Of course, not!  But, let’s say you get on Jeopardy, the TEEVEE program and you have chosen, “Clouds” as your category and the hose (oops, “host”, damn autospeller!) asks you, “This kind of ice crystal is found below the tops of CIrrus clouds.”


You’re answer from today’s “lesson”:


“What is a bullet rosette?”  Some kind of prize happens when you say that, and you’re happy for the first time that you read all this.


2:45 PM.  As the end of the Cirrus approached, as often happens, you get to see how they looked when they first formed, and here's a shot of that.
2:45 PM. As the end of the Cirrus approached, as often happens, you get to see how they looked when they first formed, and here’s a shot of that.


2:57 PM.  Its got writing on it.
2:57 PM, just 12 min later. Its got more writing on it.


3:07 PM, ten more minutes go by.  I was watching, standing there in a lot of cold air so I could get this sequence.  What were you doing?  Watching the Seahawks lose to Atlanta?
3:07 PM, ten more minutes go by, trails lengthen further. I was watching, standing there in a lot of cold air so I could get this sequence. What were you doing? Watching the Seahawks lose to Atlanta in the last 30 s of the game after they just had gone ahead? How could that happen? Its OK, I understand. Clouds don’t always come first for you.


3:19 PM.  Last one, was getting too far away.
3:19 PM. Last one, was getting too far away.


4:07 PM.  The afternoon finished out in an undercutting-the=Cirrus Cirrocumulus clouds, maybe Altocumulus lenticularis in the distance due to having shading.  Had some great, delicate patterns as well.
4:07 PM. The afternoon finished out in an undercutting-the=Cirrus Cirrocumulus clouds, maybe Altocumulus lenticularis in the distance due to having shading. Had some great, delicate patterns as well.


4:10 PM.  Cirrocumulus.  These are droplet clouds and did not form ice at any time.  They were lower and warmer than the Cirrus fleck clouds.  Shows how similar the formation process is of Cc and Ci, flecky, dotty, tiny updrafts, maybe 0.1 meters per second.
4:10 PM. Cirrocumulus. These are droplet clouds and did not form ice at any time. They were lower and warmer than the Cirrus fleck clouds. Shows how similar the formation process is of Cc and Ci, flecky, dotty, tiny updrafts, maybe 0.1 meters per second or less updraft forms them.


 


Today’s clouds?


COLD, cold trough going over us again today and this evening. Air should moisten up some in the lower levels as this happens allowing for some Cumulus to form, ones likely to develop a little ice in them, which means a little virga here and there is likely. There are also likely to be a couple of Altocumulus or higher based Stratocumulus patches, too, during the day. U of A has predicted soundings over TUS here.


The weather ahead


Temperature extremes pattern still ahead in just a few days now; warm in the West, darn cold in the East.  Rain has shown up here on the afternoon of the 27th in last evening’s 5 PM AST global data model run.


Speaking of extremes


A number of low temperature (not “cold” temperature) records have been broken in AZ.  Here are a few, as reported by the NWS.  Some of these records that were broken go back 100 years, such as the 7 F at Wilcox, set two days ago, breaking the 8 F in 1913, the same time as when the TUS low temperature record was set.  The two patterns must have been similar, 1913 and now.  Makes you feel special, doesn’t it?


SXUS75 KFGZ 140119
RERFGZ
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF, AZ
600 PM MST SUN JAN 13 2013
...RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON JAN 13 2013...
CITY (PERIOD OF RECORD)          NEW LOW HIGH    PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
GRAND CANYON NP N RIM (1926 - 2013)    11          16         IN  2007
PAYSON (1949 - 2013)                   33          35         IN  1960
...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON JAN 13 2013...
CITY (PERIOD OF RECORD)            NEW LOW       PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
FLAGSTAFF (1899 - 2013)                -7          -6         IN  1963
GRAND CANYON NP N RIM (1926 - 2013)   -12          -5         IN  1926
THESE RECORDS ARE PRELIMINARY PENDING OFFICIAL REPORTS.
$$

SXUS75 KFGZ 132320
RERFGZ
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF, AZ
1000 AM MST SUN JAN 13 2013
...RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON JAN 12 2013...
CITY (PERIOD OF RECORD)          NEW LOW HIGH    PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
FORT VALLEY (1909 - 2013)              20          23         IN  1963
MCNARY 2N (1921 - 2013)                22          27         IN  1964
SUNSET CRATER NM (1970 - 2013)         21          25         IN  1985
...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON JAN 13 2013...
CITY (PERIOD OF RECORD)            NEW LOW       PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
FLAGSTAFF (1899 - 2013)                -7          -6         IN  1963
THESE RECORDS ARE PRELIMINARY PENDING OFFICIAL REPORTS.
$$

SXUS75 KTWC 131605 CCA
RERTWC
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
841 AM MST SUN JAN 13 2013 
...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES SET FOR JAN 13...
LOCATION                  RECORD  OLD RECORD
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT      07    15/1975 
FORT THOMAS                 11    12/1962 
SIERRA VISTA                16    18/1916
WILLCOX                     07    08/1913
$$

SXUS75 KTWC 131542
RERTWC
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
841 AM MST SUN JAN 13 2013 
...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES SET FOR JAN 13...
LOCATION                  RECORD  OLD RECORD
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT      07    15/1975 
...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES SET FOR JAN 12...
LOCATION                  RECORD  OLD RECORD
FORT THOMAS                 11    11/1962 
KITT PEAK                   12    19/1989 
$$

SXUS75 KTWC 131458
RERTWC
RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
0746 AM MST SUN JAN 13 2013
...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT DOUGLAS AZ...
 A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 7 DEGREES WAS SET AT DOUGLAS AZ TODAY. 
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 15 SET IN 1975.
$$


 


 

	

	
	




	
	

				

			Aerosols, Cumulonimbus clouds, Definitions, Local climate
		

			
July 2012:  15 days with measurable rain (with three traces); adds up to 4.45 inches!

		

			 		

	


		

		
And we were one of the drier areas!  Many places around us were between 5-10 inches this July making it a pretty memorable one and the 6th wettest July in Catalina since 1977.  Here’s the list of those wettest for Catalina:


1.  July 2006    7.22 inches   11 days with measurable rain


2.  July 1984    6.54 inches   17 days with measurable rain


3.  July 1990    5.25 inches   12 days with measurable rain


4.  July 1983    4.94 inches     9 days with measurable rain


5.  July 20081   4.73 inches   12 days with measurable rain


6.  July 2012    4.45 inches   15 days with measurable rain


1The record begins in 1977 down at Our Garden garden on Stallion Ave and in July 2008, is a mix of their records for the first half of the month, and here on East Wilds Road for the second half, and from East Wilds Road thereafter.


Here is the NOAA 30-day radar-derived rainfall map, ending July 31st, for Arizona to provide an overall picture of how well our State did this July.  Also shown is the percentage of normal map.  You can find these maps here.








De-briefing for yesterday


A disappointment for sure, since the day before, the models had indicated a pulse of rain moving through in the afternoon.  But then they changed by yesterday morning.  The rain pulse was gone.  That’s what weather computer models do;  they say they like you and then they say they don’t, in a sense.


However,  if one looked far enough to the south in the evening, there was a Cumulonimbus way off in Mexico, maybe a 100 miles or so,  that was exactly headed this way. It lasted about 20 minutes and never crossed the border.  Oh, well.  Rain hope springs eternal.


7:14 PM  Down Mexico way, a Cb!


Closer ones suddenly popped up to the NE and ENE, quite pretty, but they weren’t moving this way.


7:12 PM.  A closer Cb but may as well have been in New Mexico because it wasn’t moving this way.


There was too much haze yesterday, too.


7:03 PM.  “Deliquesced” (fattened up by humidity) smog aerosols show up as the cloud-free whitish areas at cloud base.  Really looks awful from an aircraft flying at that level since you’re looking at that layer on its “side.”


 The Weather Ahead


Seem to have entered a break in the showers now.  U of AZ mod (here), crunching data from 11 PM last night, doesn’t think the rain will be back until the 3rd.


We can hope its WRONG again!

	

	
	




	
	

				

			Catalina climate data, Climate issues, Definitions, Local climate
		

			
Trendless summer rains, and a look at what June has to offer

		

			 		

	


		

		


OK, cooling off now after yesterday’s rant (which somehow I just now notice has the wrong published date!), emotions now pretty much drained….






After noting that our cool season rains have oscillated into a drier spell from a very wet one over the past 35 years, it seemed like looking at what has happened to our summer rains would be appropriate today.  So, on to the next chapter of Catalina climo, a look at our summer rain season, and a look specifically at June. 




Have to harden myself, and you, too, for the tough 2 week transitional season that begins right now,  one that occurs between the end of rain chances here from cold troughs in the westerlies, and those rain chances associated with onset of the summer rains, sometimes called our “monsoon” season.  As you will see below, its not until June 20th that the chances of summer showers really shows up at all.




Thus, the next two weeks are the driest, and often the warmest of the year.  Almost no chance of rain (see second graph).  Steel yourself, my friends.


What kind of a trend do we have in our 35 year summer rain records for Catalina?  None, which is great.


This graph is reprised from an earlier climate issues (rant?)  blog.  It includes last year’s June through September rains.




Let’s look at June.  Not much explanation required, so will quit here.







Here’s where the original “dusty coolsnap”, so well timed by the models some two weeks ago, ended up yesterday, mostly off to the north of us. Take a look at these 24 h temperature differences for yesterday afternoon, courtesy of The Weather Channel. Stunning!


The End.




 

	

	
	




	
	

				

			Cloud seeding, Definitions, Local climate, Soapbox
		

			
Let’s talk about May

		

			 		

	


		

		
Now in a really good web site about weather, clouds and climate, we would have talked about May around the first of May.  But let’s face it, this site really isn’t that great.  So now we’ll talk about the climate of May on May 11th.


Below is the rain frequency climate, such as it is, for May here in Catalina.   Surprisingly, to Mr. Cloud-maven person, there is no downward trend in the chances of measurable rain from the very first days of May until the end as was expected.  Instead, each day of the whole month has about the same small chance of rain from the 35 year record mostly made by the folks (Wayne and Jenny) at Our Garden here in Catalina.




Where the rising temperature graph for May, you ask? Well, I don’t do temperature. I am cloud and rain person. A nice graph of the temperature trend for May, which we know is upward on average for the whole month, can be found here at the Western Regional Climate Center, housed at the cloud seeding-inclined Desert Research Institute of the University of Nevada which issues misleading PR pieces on cloud seeding which they conduct for the State of Nevada (no, you won’t find them, in spite of being an academic institution, doing proper randomized cloud seeding experiments, but rather bogus-style “operational” seeding.  They’d be AFRAID of doing a proper long-term, double blind randomized experiment using independent evaluators!  If I was them, I would be afraid, too, about what such an experiment might tell their long term funders!  Don’t get me started on cloud seeding discussions!


Now, where was I?


Oh, yeah, climate.  Don’t get me started about the parallels between some aspects of the purveyors of global warming info (I’m talking exaggerations, not the prospect of it which I have to grudgingly go along with, “grudgingly” because I really hope there’ll be an ice age tomorrow when I read some of the exaggerations that come out for the purpose of scaring people,  like this or that storm or tornado was due to global warming.


Yes, there are parallels between cloud seeding claims and some of the GW ones, mostly, in this writer’s opinion, driven by the need for funding.


Now, an hour later,  back to that graph at DRI….  You can see that the temperature at the U of A rises steadily throughout May on average.   We knew that already, so there really wasn’t much point in showing it, but I feel a lot better now having exhausted some hot air myself.


 


The End.


 


 


 

	

	
	




	
	

				

			Definitions, Local climate, The weather ahead, Wildflowers
		

			
Epilogue to historic storm; your broken records

		

			 		

	


		

		
Here, thanks to weather pal and researcher, Mark Albright, at the University of Washington, the low temperature and precip records set during our recent historic storm.


 


 Cloudcast


Unfortunately, the next few weeks, it appears, will be characterized by only chances of clouds, not rain, and mostly high ones at that.   Middle clouds like Altocumulus and Altostratus,  MIGHT appear on the 24th.  (Pitiful.)


Today it looks like a couple of  Cirrus clouds are heading our way from the northwest.  Of course, the temperature will be ratcheting upward now, too.


Sad to see that the poppies were mostly gone around this Catalina neighborhood yesterday.


 


Glumly, The End.