CDO wash – Cloud-maven

Sutherland Height residents rejoice and grouse over drought and road bustin’, super local, 3.36 inch “toad strangler”

“Frog strangler”, folk expression from the South for extra heavy rains, btw, which is what we had, except we have toads, not frogs.

Here’s what I think happened to produce 3.36 inches on Sutherland Heights. The winds were from the east at cloud levels. Cumulus spawned off the Catalinas/Mt Lemmon area, but the wind shear brought the tops over Sutherland Heights about the time they got cold enough to form ice, yesterday around -5° to -10°C (higher than the usual temps for ice formation because the cloud bases were so warm. I know what you’re thinking, “huh?” Take my word for it, that’s the way it works; the warmer the bottom of a cloud, the higher the temperature at which ice forms in it. Of course, over the oceans cloud base temperature doesn’t make that much difference… I better quit here on that.

Where was I? Oh… So, leaning out from the mountains is where they began to dump their loads beginning in mid-morning, when updrafts were likely modest. The first one missed Sutherland Heights altogether (except for a sprinkle, but drenched Oracle Road and the Basha’s area. And, likely because it didn’t rain on the east side of the Catalinas until later, those monster turrets kept spawning upwind of us.

The second in this series was a stronger turret, one that could stand more upright against the wind shear and dropped its load on Sutherland Heights. Indicative of stronger updrafts in that one was the onset of thunder, first aloft, then in ensuing turrets shooting upward, increasing cloud-to-ground strokes until it was unsafe to go outside without the thought of being fried.

And of course, the rainrates picked up, and stayed that way as new turrets launched off the same zone of the Catalina Mountains through mid-afternoon. That in itself was remarkable, and if you looked around, you could see that it wasn’t raining all that much either to the north or south of Catalina, and that the rainshafts faded as they trekked across Oro Valley.

The net result, an incredulous 3.36 inches here (3.37 inches in NWS-style gauge here), bound to raise eyebrows concerning possible rain gauge fraud; nothing like it anywhere in the local area! The ALERT gauge on the Golder Ranch Bridge only had 1.46 inches and Samaniego Peak, 1.93 inches! There will be very few days in our lifetimes like yesterday. Go to rainlog.org to see how amazing our local amount was in comparison to other gauges, once again raising the specter of fraud due to an outlandish amount¹.

And, again, it was closer to what a REAL monsoon day in India, say, at Cherrapunji, where passing heavy rains are accompanied by the occasional thunderclap. So, in a sense, yesterday you were climatically transported to a land faraway, where tree roots are so big they make bridges out of them…

Some photos of this event, well, too many, really, after all, too many cloud photos is our niche!:

10:03 AM. The MO for yesterday's rains in miniature. Cumulus launched off around Mt. Lemmon and leaned out over Sutherland Heights as they rose upward. As the tops got higher over us, ice began to form in them, and, down and out it came. Some of the ice, because cloud bases were so warm, began to rain — 10:03 AM. The MO for yesterday’s rains in miniature. Cumulus launched off around Mt. Lemmon and leaned out over Sutherland Heights as they rose upward. As the tops got higher over us, ice began to form in them, and, down and out it came. Some of the ice, because cloud bases were so warm (about 60°F, 15° C), probably was frozen raindrops.

11:08 AM. Only SPKLS so far, but since tallest part of cloud is over Sutherland Heights, some large drops are almost imminent.

11:53 AM. Pretty much out of control, just snapping away at this incredible intensity of rain!

11:53 AM. One second later. Haha. It was three seconds later!

3:16 PM. The CDO wash is full, but not huge, where standing waves a few feet high form (as in the 4+ inch dump of September 2015).

4:06 PM. The raging Sutherland Wash. Was making a lot of noise down there, mostly from this area near the Cottonwoods where the wall is. You could hear it probably all over Sutherland Heights if you listened carefully. Was raining lightly at this time, OCNL LTG, too.

4:06 PM. Another view of the raging Sutherland Wash, probably near its peak.

4:25 PM. The lightning from this once proud Cumulonimbus cloud has ended, and now it is resigned to be lightly raining Nimbostratus or Altostratus, I don't which, but I what I do know is that its, "cumulonimbogenitus." And don't tell me you haven't heard of "genitus", either, because its a chapter in the Bible! — 4:25 PM. The lightning from this once proud Cumulonimbus cloud has ended, and now it is resigned to be lightly raining Nimbostratus or Altostratus, I don’t which, but I what I do know is that its, “cumulonimbogenitus”, “Genitus, of course, being one of the books of the Old Testament Bible–you find information like this that you won’t find on other sites.

The End, of a very hurriedly thrown together piece. Got actual work that must be completed soon, something if you read it, it would be so boring you’d want to shoot yourself before you finished it! Sciency stuff. Oh, well, nose to grindstone now.

The CDO roars after our 1.42 inches of rain

A few more hundredths fell after 7 AM yesterday, boosting our storm total to a remarkable 1.42 inches, January now about twice our long-term average.

Here’s what all that precip did to our beloved Cañada del Oro Wash:

3:53 PM. The CDO in full flow. — 3:53 PM. The CDO in full flow at East Wilds Road, road closed.

Yesterday’s clouds

8:04 AM. A Stratocumulus overcast with areas of virga and light rain showers began the day.

After a few more hundredths of rain, the skies broke open, and as we know well, some of our most spectacular scenes occur under deep blue skies punctuated by puffy Cumulus clouds, shadows and highlights on our now snow-capped Catalina Mountains.

10:36 AM. Cumulus clouds race toward Catalina borne on brisk southwest winds. — 10:36 AM. Cumulus clouds race toward Catalina borne on brisk west winds. In looking at this scene you can feel them coming at you.

10:36 AM. Deeper clouds capable of producing ice and precip still lay to the SSW of us.

11:19 AM. Heavy Cumulus line the Catalinas, spewing ice farther downwind. Glinting rocks highlight the scene.

1:38 PM. Coming at you. The south end of the Tortolita Mountains is a common formation point in westerly and northwesterly flows for cloud street development, a line of clouds that stays in the same place, but elements are replaced.

1:38 PM. The end of this cloud street shows that its tops got high enough to form a little ice, seen by that veil like cloud coming out the downwind end.

2:57 PM. Samaniego Ridge and its new coating.

3:06 PM. Cloud streets continuing to stream off the Tortolita Mountains, but are now half the depth they were 2 h ago. No ice will form now.

3:48 PM. "Devil's Post Pile" to the left of Samaniego Peak catches a sun break. — 3:48 PM. “Devil’s Post Pile” to the left of Samaniego Peak catches a sun break.

4:01 PM. Last of the Tort cloud streets, shallower yet (estimated depth, 1000 feet) is about to fade into oblivion, wherever that is. — 4:01 PM. Last of the Tort cloud streets, shallower yet (estimated depth, 1000-1500 feet) is about to fade into oblivion, wherever that is.

In the meantime, more highlights on Sam Ridge:

4:50. Drawing back a bit for perspective on the scene.

Finally, that incredible sunset afterglow on our mountains:

5:46 PM. I hope we never take such sights as yesterday's for granted. — 5:46 PM. I hope we never take such sights as yesterday’s for granted.

The End.

Oops, oh yeah, storm tomorrow, supposed to begin in mid-day to afternoon hours. Looks like a third of an incher. Also looks to be a bit colder than the last storm, may see a flake or two by Tuesday morning.

System vanquishes sun for three days! Produces 2.28 inches in The Heights!

While on the first day, January 29th, the sun was only blocked by mid-level clouds, the rainy ones on January 30th and 31st provided a rain amount to remember here in the Sutherland Heights (and elsewhere–numerous records broken), 2.28 inches recorded over 24 h ending at 7 AM for the past three days, beginning with the 30th:

0.19, 1.56, and 0.53 inches, ending this morning.

Weeds and wildflowers really happy, as will be free range cattle and horses that get out of their pens in the days and weeks ahead.

———-experimental module———————–

We have an interesting experiment in progress, one we didn’t know we were going to have re wildflowers this spring.

A local wildflower expert on a public TEEVEE station here was quoted as saying that NOVEMBER rain was critical to wildflower displays. Hmmm. OK, but we had a RAINLESS NOVEMBER here!

So, no wildflowers? A limited display? Some key ones don’t come up at all because November was rainless, while October, December and now January had generous rains?

I don’t think so. My take is that everything will be hunky dory. HELL, no one will be able to tell that November was rainless in our upcoming wildflower displays.

But the reader must be advised royally in this editorial side bar, that the writer is a cloud-maven, not a flower-maven as was expert quoted on public TEEVEE.

So, let the experiment unfold before our very eyes! A chance for all to learn things! Ans, how fun is that?

———————–end of experimental module——————

Too, I wonder how often three sunless days have occurred in southern Arizona? Was probably a rare event that these past three days mimicked Seattle or other Pac NW sites west of the Cascade Mountains in winter so well.

BTW, in an important climate note concerning the Pacific Northwest, it rains more in Eugene, OR, aka Duckville, more than in Seattle, in case you’re a football player and are deciding between the Washington Huskies and the Oregon Donald Ducks prior to the upcoming LOI Day, the National Holiday celebrating when high school kids sign Letters of Intent about where they are going to play college football.

And, continuing a high school theme, don’t forget to watch football today; the Seattle Seahawks, who live right next door to the University of Washington Huskies, will be playing in a big game, so maybe you could get some valuable autographs while playing for the Huskies…. Just a thought.

Back to yesterday……

I think the most surprising part was how nearly stationary rain echoes kept giving all day yesterday. So often, where clouds are almost stationary, they just rain out and thin. But it just kept coming, at least here in Catalina. And, as the storm came to a close, the expected sight of a frosty Lemmon appeared late in the day due to the gradually lowering snow level as the clouds suddenly lifted when a dry north wind rushed in. Should be more of that dry north wind today.

No rain in sight now…. Corrals can dry out, which would be good.

BTW, by later yesterday the local washes were running reel good. In case you missed the flows, here are some floody scenes:

1:48 PM. Here a Catholic priest in non-traditional garb inspects the CDO wash at East Wilds Road. — 1:48 PM. Here a semi-retired Catholic priest in non-traditional garb inspects the CDO wash at East Wilds Road.

1:49 PM. Looking downstream from the CDO wash and E Wilds intersection.

1:56 PM. Perhaps you're a person that prefers upstream views of flooding situations. Well, here it is, the CDO Wash looking upstream at East Wilds Road in Catalina. Trying to please everybody here. — 1:56 PM. Perhaps you’re a person that has a preference for upstream views of flooding situations. Well, here it is, the CDO Wash looking upstream at East Wilds Road in Catalina. Trying to please everybody here, no matter what your preferences are.

Hiked out to the Sutherland Wash yesterday, arriving about 3 PM to take these docuphotos for you. These were taken near the horse crossing that leads to the “Rusty Gate” and the Coronado National Forest boundary on the east side of the Wash.

Had not seen the Sutherland Wash this big before, in person. Was much higher, though, during the September 8, 2014 event, as deduced from debris piles, when 4-5 inches fell in 3 h.

Yesterday’s cloud

It was pretty much the same one all day I think. We begin our cloud soliloquy with an unusual sighting of pure Stratus, present before the rain moved in again.

7:49 AM. Like a wall painted with Seattle gray paint, available at most fine hardware stores. That is the appearance of true Stratus, and we had that yesterday after dawn. Some fog, too, drifted through. Remember, when its on the ground its called, “fog”, while when its above you the same thing is “Stratus.” Estimated ceiling here, 100 feet.

1:08 PM. In the afternoon the Stratus clouds began to break up at times, providing peek-aboo looks at Samaniego Ridge, which was kind of cool. Remember, that the Stratus clouds were not the ones precipitating, but rather the a layer of “Nimbostratus” above them was. However, as you know, a drop falling into a layer of Stratus clouds does not evaporate while it falls through them, AND, can even get bigger if some floating cloud drop can’t get out of the way (those larger than about 20 microns in diameter). So, to continue an educational stream here, while Stratus clouds, and Stratocumulus clouds may not produce precip beyond drizzle, they CAN help increase rain totals when they are present because raindrops are not evaporating when they fall through them, and raindrops may even get larger and the rainfall amount be more than otherwise due to the collection of some of the cloud droplets!

4:14 PM. Its STILL raining! Unbelievable for someone who thought this Nimbostratus layer would rain out and die in place. The low clouds were completely gone, swept away by a dry north wind. — 4:14 PM. Its STILL raining! Unbelievable for someone who thought this Nimbostratus layer would rain out and die in place. This is a really good shot of that layer that produced the rain that fell into lower Stratus and Stratocumulus clouds for most of the day. Some connections between the two did occur in the heavier rain areas, The low clouds were completely gone by this time, swept away by a dry north wind.

5:15 PM. As the Nimbostratus layer lifted, eventually to Altostratus opacus, if you really want to know, frosty The Lemmon came out showing that the snow level had declined during the day.

You may wish to pleasure yourself with another and very unusual occurrence of fog right now (7:02 AM) coming out of Tucson, heading toward Marana, south Oro Valley. Very pretty scene this miniute. Heading out now to capture on film.

The End

A July day in the Western Ghats; replication ahead?

If you’ve ever been to Indian State of Kerala and the western Ghats, you know that yesterday, with the warmth, the thick, pounding rain with cloud bases at tree-top levels, visibility a mile or two, and with little or no lightning, was a true sample of India in the summer, maybe a July day in the western Ghats.

Congratulations for having experienced India and a TRUE monsoon day without having to go anywhere¹.

The totals? 4.48 inches at Our Garden on Columbus Avenue, wettest day in their 37 year record. 4.59 inches on Samaniego Peak. The largest amount I could find was at Stewart Dam by the Salt River, 4.79 inches, all in 24 h, though most of these totals fell in less than 3 h. Below a shot of the CDO wash at or near its peak at Wilds Road, the latter a “street” if I may, one that might now surpass in difficulty the Charoulou Gap for the 4-wheeler and ATV crowd judging from the way it looked yesterday.

BTW, the shots below are from a video taken by yours truly in the pounding rain as the total here in Sutherland Heights surpassed the 3 inch mark, on its way to 4.18 inches. I was the only one there, except for Jessie, who runs Our Garden, who also showed up in the pounding rain right after I did, saying, “I thought I’d find you here.” Huh.

bigger yet — 10:55 AM. Rainfall in Sutherland Heights was now surpassing 3 inches when this was shot.

CDO at Wilds — 11:00 AM at the Canada del Oro Wash at Wilds Road.

20140908 CDO in flood — 11:00 AM at the Canada del Oro Wash at Wilds Road, looking upstream from near there.

This was twice as big and fast moving as anything I had seen in the prior seven summers, though doesn’t compare to the August 2003 flood in which the CDO wash at this location got all the the way to Lago del Oro Parkway, a hundred yards wider than this.

With yesterdays soaking wet air over us, it didn’t take much to send turrets spaceward, and it MAY have been that those car-floating rains in the Phoenix area had something to do with what happened.

A gust front moving this way was evident in the satellite and radar imagery as new echoes raced to the SE from that whopper after midnight. The gust front appeared to dissipate before getting here, but then not long after the heavy rains began, the wind came up from the north after calm conditions marked the first inch or two. And the rains intensified. Clearly, wherever that wind shift came from, it gave the clouds above us another boost, to push an already memorable rain into historic proportions by helping generated the second two inches. (I hope you logged the time of this important windshift in your weather diary yesterday.)

Here are some shots from that historic day, one that we will likely not live to see again:

: 5:54 AM. Stratocumulus clouds with a higher layer of clouds reddened in the sunrise that provided a rosy glow where there were break and thin spots in the overcast. The clouds are only maybe 2000 feet above the ground at 59 F (15 C) or so, incredibly warm-based.

6:32 AM. This extraordinary shot. "Huh" you say? Its beginning to drizzle from these shallow Stratotumulus clouds, a RARE event in Arizona, though not unexpected when cloud bases are so warm, and therefore, contain so much water, water that is converted into larger than normal cloud droplets when then reach the Hocking threshold for collisions with coaslescence to occur. Rare to see Hocking's threshold exceeded in our clouds! — 6:32 AM. This extraordinary shot. “Huh,” you say? Its beginning to drizzle from these shallow Stratocumulus clouds over there by the Catalinas, a RARE event in Arizona. When cloud bases are so warm, and therefore, contain so much water in them, water that is converted into larger than normal cloud droplets they can then reach the “Hocking threshold” (about 38 microns in diameter) for collisions with coalescence to occur, and that in turn allows drizzle and rain drops to form without ice! Rare to see Hocking’s threshold exceeded in our clouds! The day could have ended right here and have been a happy, memorable one. True drizzle even fell here in Sutherland Heights from these clouds just after 7 AM, too, and before the big rains hit. Did you know that this process of rain formation, called collision-coalescence, has produced the biggest rain drops ever measured, about a centimeter in diameter. And that was in clouds that did not reach the freezing level! And, nearly all of that western Ghat rain is due to that mechanism, in hurricanes, too. So, don’t need no ice for blinding rains when the air is so tropical as the air here was yesterday. Ice in those tropical situations is often more like fluff icing on a rainy cake, to make a strange metaphor, than a real contributor to what falls on the ground.

7:17 AM. Before long, heavier rains, this area fronted by a weak arcus cloud, were breaking out. With no thunder, and weak looking, stratiformy looking clouds, you do intuit that no ice may be involved, even if the rains are heavy. Look how thick and fog-like it looks in that rain area. — 7:17 AM. Before long, heavier rains, this area fronted by a weak arcus cloud, were breaking out. With no thunder, and weak looking, “stratiformy” looking clouds, you do intuit that no ice may be involved, even if the rains are heavy. Look how thick and fog-like it looks in that rain area. About a half an inch fell out of this according to one “personal weather station” out there.

8:05 AM. Outside of some brief true drizzle drops, it hasn't done anything here yet, but, "hey" this looks interesting as it approaches, though no rain was falling out of it. Recall, too, that lower portions of cloud like this indicate an area of updraft feeding a Cumulus base. Must be too shallow for rain to form.... Or was it? This is going to be a VERY tedious blog today. — 8:05 AM. Outside of some brief true drizzle drops, it hasn’t done anything here yet, but, “hey” this looks interesting as it approaches, though no rain was falling out of it. Recall, too, that lower portions of cloud like this indicate an area of updraft feeding a Cumulus base. Must be too shallow for rain to form…. Or was it? This is going to be a VERY tedious blog today.

8:10 AM. Look! A little rain is falling out and its heading this way and that updraft area is holding up. Maybe it will be enough to measure! — 8:10 AM. Look! Just five minutes later, a little rain is falling out now and its heading this way and that updraft area is holding up. Maybe it will be enough to measure! (Note: Here’s where the rain ball got rolling, to make another awkward metaphor; it dumped 0.22 inches in a few minutes as it unloaded on Sutherland Heights. Note also that there is just stratiform (flat) and higher clouds behind this. Didn’t look like much more was going to happen. Perhaps it would be “too cloudy” and cool for good rains, something we often hear around here, and is largely true.

OK, its pretty hard to take pictures of rain, but these two below were the best I could do, and I hope you appreciate it. I have no idea why I took 85 pictures of heavy rain; they don’t look that great in retrospect, but it was exciting to be taking them…kind of lost control.

DSC_0085-1 — 9:28 AM. What Oro Valley looks like from Sutherland Heights when its raining two inches an hour. Photo looks west.

Also taken at 9:28, but 21 photos earlier than the one above, of the runoff from a local resident’s roof when its raining two inches an hour. Wow, snapped 21 photos in a minute! Hmmmmm… maybe some counseling is needed on self-control…

The rest of the day was truly history, and by afternoon, things were clearing out, and by late in the day left those usual, “memorable” scenes of our mountains decked in clouds. The mountains seemed greener, washed up as it were, more than usual after good rains.

5:11 PM. Residual Stratocumulus castellanus (because they have little turrets) top "Sam" Ridge. — 5:11 PM. Residual Stratocumulus castellanus (because they have little turrets) top “Sam” Ridge.

DSC_0031-1 — 6:08 PM. Another just a pretty scene of our well-washed mountains. Samaniego Peak got 4.59 inches yesterday, as mentioned before.

Today…..U of AZ mod run from 11 PM last night sez no rain around here today or tomorrow. With the residual moisture we have, and clouds topping Samaniego Ridge this morning, it would be hard to imagine that early on in the day, later this morning that a few huge Cumulonimbus clouds won’t arise over the Cat Mountains before the drying takes hold. So, we might see some great clouds right away, and then watch them wither as the dry air manifests itself.

In the longer term, yesterday’s 12 Z run was amazing since it had more heavy rains down the road, a week or so out, with another “Norbert” like storm traveling up the Baja coastline. Imagine! And on last evening’s run at 5 PM AST, it has it in almost an identical trajectory as Norbert. Check this out. Never have seen that before, such a replication of something fairly strange in the first place. I just saw this now, and am so excited am going to slip it here adding already to “blog excess” and “reader fatigue”:

Valid on September 18th at — Valid on September 16th at 5 PM AST, this duplicate of yesterday’s map! UNBELIEVABLE!

————

¹In the southern peninsula region of India, east of the Ghats in during the time of the SW monsoon, there are giant thunderstorms with incredible LTG, but they’re more scattered around than the “24/7” monsoon rains in the Ghats, rains that can produce up to 300 inches in a month, though averages are closer to 100.

The Saddlebrooke mash down; 2.48 inches in under two hours! Flow in the CDO!

Still a chance, a small one for a shower today, before it dries out for a few days. Mods pretty sure about rain on the Cats this afternoon, which is good. Should be a very photogenic day, with nice shots of more isolated thunderblasters.

With that out of the way…let us reprise yesterday, the good and the bad.

Only 0.17 inches here in Sutherland Heights yesterday while Saddlebrooke was getting shafted, rain shafted, that is. Moore Road at La Cholla, over there, also got more than TWO inches yesterday afternoon. You can check the interesting amounts here and here.

Another near miss here at the house. May have to sell if this keeps up. July rain here in Sutherland Heights, now at only 2.87 inches (normal is 3.5 inches) while everywhere within radius of two miles has more, for example, about 3.5 inches already over there to the south on Trotter (just S of Golder Ranch Drive), and 4 or so inches in places in and around Saddlebrooke, almost within ear shot.

Here are the effects of more July rain than here; these shots from yesterday morning down in the Regional State Park next to Lago del Oro Road:

8:05 AM. Riding pal, Nora B., admires the vegetation erupting in Cat Regional Park where they have had more rain than I have. Also note she forgot to put the saddle on my horse Jake. How funny is that? — 8:05 AM. For depth perspective, riding pal, Nora B., co-author with hubby of “Wildflowers of Arizona”, admires the vegetation as she usually does being a big vegetation “author” and all that. This is how the summer vegetation is erupting in Cat Regional Park now where they have had more rain than I have. :(…. Might be worth a look down there. Think about it. Also note; she forgot to put the saddle on my horse, Jake. How funny is that? Also shows I have a friend that doesn’t mind an excessive amount of cloud chatter, unlike our former engineer, Jack R., , who had to rip his headset off when I spoke about clouds to crew members on our research flights at the University of Washington. I liked Jack, though, shown below for reasons of nostalgia.

The late Jack Russell, 1942-1998, engineer with the Cloud and Aerosol Research Group, University of Washington. Kept EVERYTHING running! — The late Jack Russell, 1942-1998, engineer with the Cloud and Aerosol Research Group, University of Washington. He kept EVERYTHING running, though he was not fond of cloud talk! I ahd to tell him about cloud instruments that were busted, but we kidded around a lot, too, leading a grad student who observed our relationship to say, “I don’t know whether Jack loves you or hates you.”

Continuing with vegetation shots after nostalgia break:

Also had a surge down the CDO wash. I know you like to see this, you love water, so here are two shots from yesterday afternoon after the Saddlebrooke mash down:

SONY DSC — 3:12 PM. Just as the surge passed at Wilds Road down by the mail boxes.

While the rain was a disappointment, all the other scenes yesterday caused more than 200 photos to be taken from it. Since I have termed myself, rightly or wrongly, as a “cloud maven”, I should show you ones I thought were exceptional, pretty and or dramatic. The first one, while I was looking forlornly at the Saddlebrooke cloudburst, “Why there, and not on me?”:

1:17 PM. The Saddlebrooke mash down as it was happening. Thought it might propagate this way, that is, the push of wind out of this send up a giant Cumulus to Cumulonimbus over ME, and while the sky darkened for awhile, no real cloudburst occurred.

Here’s what rips your heart out, the big, smooth-looking base indicating a good updraft right overhead but nothing comes out. The giant drops, those ones that are the biggest ones in the cloud could be coming down, defeating the updraft that’s been holding them up there because they’ve gotten too big and heavy for it, and likeyly they were even were big hail stones or giant graupel particles (soft hail), and they’re up there. but the strands of those biggest drops begin to streaming downward just a mile away you see. First, you have some sky rage seeing those strands reach the ground just a mile away, your face reddening, but then, being by nature more contemplative, resign yourself to yet another miss as now the sky fills with dead looking debris cloud upstream of you, only producing light, steady “little baby” rain at best, rain that wouldn’t amount to that much, only might be important to a flying ant colony, but that’s about it. Heartbreak Hotel, right here, overhead yesterday, started thinking about moving on again:

12:51 PM. Harris hawk takes advantage of updraft feeding Cumulus congestus base over my house. My heart was aching for those giant drop to fall out. Did the hawk know he was safe from that event somehow? — 12:51 PM. Harris hawk takes advantage of updraft feeding Cumulus congestus base over the house. My heart was aching for those giant drop to start falling out. Did the hawk know he was safe from that event somehow wherein he might have had trouble flying? Maybe he was sensing that the updraft was too chaotic, broken up into small bits, some genetic implant passed down over the eons? Will be watching for hawks under dark cloud bases and what happens now.

1:38 PM. Cu congestus base almost directly overhead. Was overhead a coupla minutes earlier. — 1:38 PM. Another Cu congestus base almost directly overhead. Was overhead a coupla minutes earlier. Not as smooth now as it was then, suggesting the updraft is getting chaotic. Darn.

Thought back, too, to all the promise, the propitious start to the day with those thunderheads, mimicking hydrogen bomb blasts, over the Mogollon Rim on the north horizon at 9:30 AM. As a cloud maven junior, you would been thinking, “THIS is going to be a special day today.” Here’s that distant scene, so fabulous to see, from Equestrian Trail Road:

9:34 AM. Giant Cumulonimbus line the Mogollon Rim already! This is a great sign for a "big day" with a good chance the same kind of air that let this happen is over us, too! Watch out, Catalinas! — 9:34 AM. Giant Cumulonimbus calvus clouds line the Mogollon Rim already! This is a great sign for a “big day” with a good chance the same kind of air that let this happen there is over us, too! Watch out, Catalinas!

11:45 AM. Sure enough, there they go, thunder on the Cats! Superb. Oh,well, you know the rest of the story. Still some great cloud scenes all day. — 11:45 AM. Sure enough, there they go, thunder on the Cats! Superb. Note anvil peaking out on the right side, middle.
Oh,well, you know the rest of the story. Still, there were so many great cloud scenes all day. I loved it overall.

Is it India? Or is it Catalina?

Let’s have a contest, get the brain going.

With dewpoints hovering near, and even eeking into the low 70s in AZ, with giant thunderstorms complexing our weather with sudden stupifying downpours, one wonders, after all of these blogs, this “body of work” if you will, if the several people who comprise the Cloud-Maven blogpire, one that radiates from one part of Catalina to another, would be able to know where they were if they could be transported to the locations in these two sets of four photos. (BTW, all of which were taken by the present Arthur–hahahaha.)

OK, drum roll, insert photos here.

Two were taken at the Madras (now Chennai) International AP in Meenambakkam, Tamil Nadu, India, in September 1975, and the other two just yesterday afternoon in Catalina, where most of us live. Remember, there are mountains in India, so just because you see some mountains doesn’t mean its NOT India. Also, just because I mentioned two were taken in India first, doesn’t mean necessarily that they are the first two shots below.

OK, begin thinking and analyzing, maybe drink some more coffee.

OK, if you guessed the first two photos were actually taken in India during the REAL monsoon in 1975, you were right. That’s a friend, Venkateswaran, on the far right of the first photo admiring the arcus cloud ahead of the downpour.

The result of our “pseudo-monsoon”, which was a pretty good imitation of the real thing yestserday, shown in the second set of two photos, was another 1-2 inches in the CDO watershed, 0.75 inches in here SE Catalina, 1.16 inches at Sutherland Heights, and a whopping 1.92 inches yesterday afternoon and Our Garden (Jesse, personal communication), keepers of the Catalina long term climo records.

What was the effect on the CDO River at the bottom of East WIlds Road?

It got huge. Coulda rafted brown water. Below are more shots of the CDO wash/river again for the second day in a row, ones after yesterday’s dump. A young bystander (i.e., fellow gawker) said I had arrived after the peak! Said the churning waves that developed every 20 min or so due to surges down the wash, were 8-10 feet high! Here they were about half that, 4 feet or so from trough to ridge. I wanted to “shop” a water buffalo in one of these photos so BAD!

Of course, this flood is “mild” compared to the Aug 25th, 2003 flow, which covered Lago del Oro road.

BTW, rainfall totals hereabouts are now up to or exceed the average July monthly amount of 3.xx inches.

The Weather Ahead

With high dewpoints once again today, 64 F here in Catalina, more large thunderstorms are pretty much in the bag, and importantly, this assertion is corroborated by calculating models, all that I looked at. Here is the forecast rain picture for 4 PM today from the Beowulf Cluster at the University of AZ: 4 PM 20120715_WRF Precip (Flash Animation) As you will see, WIDESPREAD rain is expected, with totals in the “best” cores getting up to 1-2 inches again. Wow, three days in a row of major storms.

Things are supposed to dry out some tomorrow, but showers will still be around before a break of a couple or three days.

The End.