Category Archives: Tropical storms

Definitions, Horse picture, The weather WAY ahead (10 days or more), Tropical storms, Weather model discussion, Zeus the horse

Powerful hurricane to not enter Arizona even though the model shows this happening; horse story

Many of you probably were gasping for air after having seen the WRF-GFS model outputs from last evening’s 5 PM AST global data.

A large hurricane, really more the size of its typhoonic big brothers in the western north Pacific, and one that also dwarfs the late tropical remnant, “Newton” ,  that came through here a week or so ago, is shown to move along the SAME path as Newton into Arizona in about 13 days from now.

For those few of you who did NOT peruse the 00 GMT, CUT,  Z output, here are the fantastic fantasy hurricane depictions that this model, with all of its calculating power, shows entering AZ on the 26th.  Kind of fun to see even if it is bogus because it indicates that such a strong tropical cyclone could come through here one day.

Below, from IPS MeteoStar, these, maybe the best fake AZ hurricane depictions I have ever seen.  Note all the isobars, i.e., lines of equal pressure with this tropical cyclone in AZ, and then remember for all its rain, little Newton had virtually no signature on pressure maps! Hell, the pressure didn’t even fall at Nogales as Newt approached.  Pitiful.

But it wouldn’t be like that in this fantasy hurricane.  Tremendous pressure falls would occur as it entered AZ giving your microbarograph quite a workout as the pressure plummeted and then went up as the center passed by.

You do have a microbarograph don’t you?  If you don’t, think about it.

Ann 2016091200_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_348
“Invalid” (haha) for 5 AM AST September 25th.
Ann 2016091200_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_360
Invalid for 5 PM AST September 25th.

Next,  you’re curious, though,  about what steering pattern caused this hurricane, previously shown to stay far offshore and dissipate over some jellyfish and plastic particles way out in the Pacific in the models.

Let’s look, again from IPS MeteoStar at the steering situation at 500 millybars, or in around 20,000 feet or so:

Here the configuration. You're breathing a sigh of relief, maybe even chuckling: "That's not gonna happen." Ludicroous really, though withing the slightest realm of possibility, maybe one in a thousand. Like kicking a field goal that goes through the uprights after bouncing off an opposing player's helmut. I mean, it could happen, like a golf shot at Carmel that bounces off a stunted cypress and goes into the hole from 500 yards out, or.... OK, enough of that.
Here the configuration. You’re breathing a sigh of relief, maybe even chuckling: “That’s not gonna happen.” Ludicroous really, though withing the slightest realm of possibility, maybe one in a thousand. Like kicking a field goal that goes through the uprights after bouncing off an opposing player’s helmut. I mean, it could happen, like a golf shot at Carmel that bounces off a stunted cypress and goes into the hole from 500 yards out, or…. OK, enough of that.

2016091200_WST_GFS_500_HGT_WINDS_336 2016091200_WST_GFS_500_HGT_WINDS_348 2016091200_WST_GFS_500_HGT_WINDS_360

What you need to have any confidence is a big trough along or just offshore as we had with Newt, not a slight little itty bitty eddy aloft that has to be in exactly the right location at EXACTLY the right time.  I mean, its like a ball that goes for a home run after it bounces of the  center fielder’s head1 …

Hold your cash on the sand bags.

Finally, there’s really nothing from the spaghetti factory that supports this.  Boohoo.  What you need in spaghetti is strong support for a trough along the coast, not the below:

Valid at 5 PM AST September 25th.
Valid at 5 PM AST September 25th.

Yesterday’s clouds

Spectacular Altocumulus castellanus and floccus (no virga) passed overhead during the morning.  I hope you documented them with a few photos.

9:11 AM, on the trail looking at a superb example of Altocumulus floccus. Estimated height, 12,000 feet above ground level. No ice visible, so tops likely warmer than -10 C.
9:11 AM, on the trail looking at a superb example of Altocumulus floccus. Estimated height, 12,000 feet above ground level. No ice visible, so tops likely warmer than -10 C.  The bases of these clouds evaporated almost as soon as they formed, but the tops not so much, rose steadily after bottom disappeared.  Tallest ones were likely more than 1,000-2000 feet tall.
12:16 PM. By this time, which was good, smallish Cumulonimbus clouds recurred over the Catalina Mountains mostly east of Ms. Lemmon. Nice stages of ice development in the tops from newly risen, no sign of ice, to frizzy all ice remains, over and over again.
12:16 PM. By this time, which was good, smallish Cumulonimbus clouds recurred over the Catalina Mountains mostly east of Ms. Lemmon. Nice stages of ice development in the tops from newly risen, no sign of ice (right side here), to frizzy all ice remains (left side here), over and over again.

Horse story

Have to depart from clouds and weather to tell this tale.  Yesterday I stopped here to let the mighty Zeus rest a little.  I let him graze “off leash” on some of the still-green nettle grass in a gravel parking area next to our cottage.  I then went to get a pail of water for him, the pail being on the north side of our house.  When he saw I was leaving,  he immediately followed me like a dog.  It was kind of cute.

But as we got to the gravel outside the north porch of our house, our two dogs, Banjo and Emma were going nuts at the sight of a horse outside the north windows.

Zeus got distracted by all of the commotion in the house and went onto the porch to look in one of the windows to see what was up, or maybe he saw his own reflection and thought it was another horse?  Here is the hilarious scene:

2:21 PM yesterday. Zeus looks in to see why the dogs are barking so much.
2:21 PM yesterday. Zeus looks in to see why the dogs are barking so much.

 

The End

 

———————————————–

1This actually happened in South Dakota,  at Mitchell’s Cadwell Park,  during a  baseball game I played in ’72.  I was catching in those days for Mitchell Commercial Bank.    Our center fielder,  a track star, ran to get a scorching line drive to medium depth center, and racing to his left,  reaching up to grab it, the ball instead bounced off his noggin and went some 40 or 50 feet over the fence!  He was OK.   We had no “concussion protocol” in those days.  Had a chance to bat against the legendary Canova, SD,  pitcher, Lee Goldammer in that game.  Whiffed on three pitches;  was maybe at bat for 30 seconds.

Definitions, The weather WAY ahead (10 days or more), Tropical storms

Filling up the portent jar…

1 Comment

With these model outputs1 for early October.  First, a tropical system barges into Arizona bringing copious rains:

Valid in 264 h, only 11 days from now!
Valid in only 10 days from now, sometime in October.  Forget any rain chances in the rest of September.  Temperature plummeting here now after hot night of foehn like wind from the north.

2015092500_WST_GFS_500_HGT_WINDS_252

The exact same map above with annotation.
The exact same map shown above with annotation for helpless little weather babies that can’t see what’s going on.

But its gets even BETTER!  In only two weeks, this tropical rampage:

A near hurricane strength tropical storm is about to smash into southern California bringing widespread rains to Cal and the whole SW, which once again, includes Arizony.
A near hurricane strength tropical storm is about to smash into
southern California/northern Baja bringing widespread rains to Cal and the whole SW, which once again, includes Arizony.  Wow, wouldn’t that be something!

2015092500_WST_GFS_500_HGT_WINDS_384

The End

———————————-

1These outputs, rendered by IPS MeteoStar, a great weather provider, are from the WRF-GFS model.  You can’t find a better model than the WRF-GFS, unless you can access the European one (ECMWF), thought to have better “skill scores”.

So, combined with the giant El Niño in progress, which will spin off stronger tropical storms than usual (definitely), and the results of trillions of calculations from our best model that shows a lot of rain headed this way in TWO episodes in 10-15 days.   The  chances of this actually happening are way over 10%!

Spaghetti actually has a “weakness” in the upper level pattern that will allow that first system to creep toward us; not so much support for Hurricane “Giganta” that comes toward SC, or system number two.

Will get back to you when the drops start falling…

Cumulonimbus clouds, Definitions, Rainbows, The weather WAY ahead (10 days or more), Tropical storms

Rainbow “warrior”

This first one grumbled a bit, sent a bolt or two  earthward last evening.  Dropped a quarter inch on Ms. Lemmon.  Hope you caught these brief scenes from two modest Cumulonimbus clouds:

7:05 PM.
7:05 PM.
7:05 PM.
7:05 PM.
7:31 PM. A different, very modest Cumulonimbus cloud. Note how the orange of the cloud is seen in some solar panels in the foreground. Pretty neat.
7:31 PM. A different, very modest Cumulonimbus cloud that’s almost totally composed of ice (from this view).  Note how the orange of the cloud is seen in some solar panels in the foreground. Pretty neat.  Eyeball top, upper 20s, temp -20s.

Spurred from hibernation by these scenes somewhat like the flying ants  we have around here by a good rain , AND by the amount of rain indicated in SE Arizona in the latest model run, the one based on the 5 PM AST global data.    Here’s what happens in that run:

A  tropical storm (what is likely to have been a Category 4 or 5 hurricane earlier in its lifetime) whizzes offshore of Baja in in 11 days or so, rather unusual for July, and lassos a humongous amount of clouds and rain, dragging them Arizonaward.

Here are the ark-like outputs from our best model, the “WRF-GFS”,  as brought to you by IPS MeteoStar.

Rain moves in on July 21st.
Rains move in on the night of the 19th-20th. This output showing the 12 h rain areas ending at 5 AM on the 19th.

The panels below are for every 12 h after the one above.

2015070900_WST_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_3002015070900_WST_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_3122015070900_WST_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_3242015070900_WST_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_3362015070900_WST_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_360

These heavy rains just go on and on, about three days worth in that run.  Have NEVER seen so much rain predicted for this area, and while its too far away to have much confidence in it, its still worth considering as a possible event.  You might want to perform some leak checks around the house just in case.

While the rainfall predicted above is somewhat moot, the likelihood of a strong hurricane in the Mexican Pacific is almost assured by our ensemble model runs (spaghetti plots).  The signal is strong for one to form down there.   Really, this kind of forecast is a remarkable thing that our models can do now days!

Such a hurricane will be fueled by the continuing extraordinary and  vast areas of sea surface temperature anomalies; the entire eastern Pacific is aflame in unusually warm water.   Check it out:

Sea surface temperature anomalies as of yesterday, July 9th.
Sea surface temperature anomalies as of yesterday, July 9th.

As far as today’s weather goes, well, you can see those thin low clouds topping Ms. Lemmon this morning.  Dewpoints continue high, around 60 F.    And with a trough moving in, should be another breezy, pretty day with scattered Cumulonimbus clouds.

But, for a man’s forecast, not a little wispy one like the one above, see Bob’s site for an outstanding analysis! CMP (Cloud Maven Person) does not have the time to do a good, thorough one, if he could.

The End