With these model outputs1 for early October. First, a tropical system barges into Arizona bringing copious rains:
But its gets even BETTER! In only two weeks, this tropical rampage:
1These outputs, rendered by IPS MeteoStar, a great weather provider, are from the WRF-GFS model. You can’t find a better model than the WRF-GFS, unless you can access the European one (ECMWF), thought to have better “skill scores”.
So, combined with the giant El Niño in progress, which will spin off stronger tropical storms than usual (definitely), and the results of trillions of calculations from our best model that shows a lot of rain headed this way in TWO episodes in 10-15 days. The chances of this actually happening are way over 10%!
Spaghetti actually has a “weakness” in the upper level pattern that will allow that first system to creep toward us; not so much support for Hurricane “Giganta” that comes toward SC, or system number two.
Will get back to you when the drops start falling…