Rainbow “warrior”

This first one grumbled a bit, sent a bolt or two  earthward last evening.  Dropped a quarter inch on Ms. Lemmon.  Hope you caught these brief scenes from two modest Cumulonimbus clouds:

7:05 PM.
7:05 PM.
7:05 PM.
7:05 PM.
7:31 PM.  A different, very modest Cumulonimbus cloud.  Note how the orange of the cloud is seen in some solar panels in the foreground.  Pretty neat.
7:31 PM. A different, very modest Cumulonimbus cloud that’s almost totally composed of ice (from this view).  Note how the orange of the cloud is seen in some solar panels in the foreground. Pretty neat.  Eyeball top, upper 20s, temp -20s.

Spurred from hibernation by these scenes somewhat like the flying ants  we have around here by a good rain , AND by the amount of rain indicated in SE Arizona in the latest model run, the one based on the 5 PM AST global data.    Here’s what happens in that run:

A  tropical storm (what is likely to have been a Category 4 or 5 hurricane earlier in its lifetime) whizzes offshore of Baja in in 11 days or so, rather unusual for July, and lassos a humongous amount of clouds and rain, dragging them Arizonaward.

Here are the ark-like outputs from our best model, the “WRF-GFS”,  as brought to you by IPS MeteoStar.

Rain moves in on July 21st.
Rains move in on the night of the 19th-20th. This output showing the 12 h rain areas ending at 5 AM on the 19th.

The panels below are for every 12 h after the one above.

2015070900_WST_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_3002015070900_WST_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_3122015070900_WST_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_3242015070900_WST_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_3362015070900_WST_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_360

These heavy rains just go on and on, about three days worth in that run.  Have NEVER seen so much rain predicted for this area, and while its too far away to have much confidence in it, its still worth considering as a possible event.  You might want to perform some leak checks around the house just in case.

While the rainfall predicted above is somewhat moot, the likelihood of a strong hurricane in the Mexican Pacific is almost assured by our ensemble model runs (spaghetti plots).  The signal is strong for one to form down there.   Really, this kind of forecast is a remarkable thing that our models can do now days!

Such a hurricane will be fueled by the continuing extraordinary and  vast areas of sea surface temperature anomalies; the entire eastern Pacific is aflame in unusually warm water.   Check it out:

Sea surface temperature anomalies as of yesterday, July 9th.
Sea surface temperature anomalies as of yesterday, July 9th.

As far as today’s weather goes, well, you can see those thin low clouds topping Ms. Lemmon this morning.  Dewpoints continue high, around 60 F.    And with a trough moving in, should be another breezy, pretty day with scattered Cumulonimbus clouds.

But, for a man’s forecast, not a little wispy one like the one above, see Bob’s site for an outstanding analysis! CMP (Cloud Maven Person) does not have the time to do a good, thorough one, if he could.

The End