Hoping Canadians win model forecast duel

This from Canada last night for April 8th at 5 PM AST:5 PM APril 8 00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144  appropriate descriptor for AZ; “juicy.”  This was such a great find early this morning!

Note deep upper low at 500 mb in eastern Cal (upper left panel) and gigantic surface low centered in Four Corners area (upper right panel). Would almost surely mean rain here in Catalina 24 h after these panels (the last one in the forecast series).  If these maps verify this would be another billion-trillion dollar value storm in drought relief for the Southwest AND Plains States over the days following this map.

However, you will be as moribund as I was after looking at the USA WRF-GFS model output for the SAME moment in time, 5 PM AST April 8th below.  I had hoped both models would show the same thing, which would build confidence on what’s going to happen on the 8th-9th, but they are vastly different!  Take a look at THIS upper level pattern: no low in eastern Cal, just a strong jet pouring down from the Pac NW with cool air.  No moisture of consequence here in Catlandia with a pattern like the one below.

Also valid at 5 PM AST April 8th, for the 500 millibar pressure level.
Also valid at 5 PM AST April 8th, for the 500 millibar pressure level.

So who you gonna call when these kinds of things happen?  Spaghetti!

Well, if you know anything at all about “spaghetti” you will only get more moribund, maybe start crying when you see it for the same time as these models.  The Enviro Can mod is clearly an outlier “solution” even if though are dealing with different models.  Inserting some “chaos” in form of “bad balloons” (bad data) at the start of the USA model run does not reveal a pattern with a low in eastern Cal in any of the “ensemble” model runs,  but only results in a strong signal (line bunching) for a jet to whoosh down the interior of the West Coast that then loops back toward the northeast over and east of us–not good for precip here, just a rush of cool-cold air.

However, it WILL still be a pattern that’s great for Texas and the Plains States in general, so let us not be selfish in our dryness and begrudge others who get rain, but rejoice with those droughty others who will get so much relief beginning around the 8th as shown here–and that relief lasts for about three days, too.  Just hope there aren’t too many tornadoes in Texas and eastward…

As an aside, it might be worth the drive to central Texas to see some of those Big Boys out there, get some perspective on Nature’s power.

Valid for 5 PM AST, April 8th.
Valid for 5 PM AST, April 8th.


Yesterday’s clouds, those small Cumulus, almost beyond the curvature of the earth to the north-northwest

Only the truly great cloud maven juniors of our time would have observed and logged in their weather diaries those tiny Cumulus clouds (humilis and fractus) that appeared momentarily off to the north-northwest horizon, barely visible, from Catalinaland around 5:12 PM. Since I had foretold some distant Cumulus to the north yesterday, I damn well was looking the whole afternoon, straining eyeballs, and was starting to feel sad until I saw this one cloud, and then I was SO happy, euphoric really. I think this one, and a couple of others needing a microscope to see, were there for about 15 minutes is all. Here is that photo-documentation of a small, distant Cumulus humilis. I’ve added some writing on this photo to help you find it, but you will have to blow it up.

Also, its OK to log things you missed in retrospect into your weather diary; it helps make it more complete.           SONY DSCBTW, there were also a few little patches of Cirrus.

The End.