“Come together, right now, over me”; and they did

Those weather computing models, over Catalina, anyway.   Who can forget those potent words from the Beatles about (USC) “he got Trojan football” and the demand about early weather forecasting model “divergences” to “come together, over me”? Most of us weather-centric people were pretty upset in those days with the vast amount of model “divergence”, and so it was great to hear that popular group speak out about it.

“Divergence” is where different models, or where consecutive model runs of the SAME model, predict different things, sometimes also called “delta model”.)  We like to compare them; is the low deeper or weaker in this run compared with the one 5 minutes ago (hahaha)?   Is the low in the still in the same location?))  Remember that song in Meredith Wilson’s Music Man about checking;  “Check, check, check,  talk a lot, check a little more…”  That’s what we weatherfolk do, check stuff constantly.  We probably talk too much, too.

The two weather computing models viewed here (the USA WRF-GFS) and the one from Canada which I like,  have “come together”, indicating just a cold blast in a few days, but not much more, except for passing virga-ish Cumulus and Stratocumulus.  That’s about all we can manage, clouds with tops colder than -10 C (14 F) out of a situation that looks like the ones shown below for 5 PM AST April 9th.  Its not the greatest outcome, but we’ll have to live with it I guess.

Range of possible max and min amounts here in Catalina during the passage of the cold blast on the 8-10th, according to this keyboard:  0 to 0.01 inch.

First, the USA output from last night:

2013040400_CON_GFS_500_HGT_WINDS_144

Now the Canadian one:

April 9th 00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144

Canadian model was off base before, and has now corrected itself,  shifting the course of this “incoming” to a trajectory that is more eastward than the “wetter” prior runs, and now, like the USA model, shows our trough’s trajectory too far to the east for precip here (see upper left panel above and compare that to configuration in first image; they’re virtually identical now).

Spaghetti told us this was going to happen yesterday, that the wetter looking Canadian one was likely goofy.

Oh, well, moving on, as we must when hope dies, hope that was unrealistic anyway.

The weather way ahead; growing more hope

Looking ahead, here’s some more of that hope.  Look at this for 5 PM AST, April 17th, only about two weeks away! (Already too excited over likely bogusness, but, what the HECK, what’s life without some unrealistic dreams, like former Washington Husky pitcher, little Timmy Lincecum of the SFO Giants who I saw pitch at Husky Ballpark many times, having a good year?):April 17th 2013040400_CON_GFS_500_HGT_WINDS_336

The trajectory of this is more to the west and would scoop up some of that Pacific air and shove it into the interior of the whole SW.  While this is an extremely cold event, we are in: 1) the climatological trough bowl, and 2) except for brief passing exceptions such as today and tomorrow when an upper level ridge goes by, we are going to be in a real trough bowl for the next two to three weeks (a place where troughs like to congregate and reach their most southern latitudes, like the ones shown in these panels.

There are several other weaker troughs that go by over the next two to three weeks time period (go to IPS MeteoStar to see them), so the chances of getting an extra strong one as shown for the 17th is pretty real.  That’s about as much hope as I can generate here at 5:29 AM.

Today’s clouds

Seems to be some Cirrus moving onto the West Coast and overhead now, ones that will give us some chances for nice sunsets/sunrises over the next couple of days.

The End, except for checking some more later.