Art Rangno – Page 92

Plethora of storms ahead; Catalina snow day still being foretold for Feb. 25th which is only nine days away now!

To help understand that odd word, “plethora” in the title in case you are befuddled by it, I have added a YouTube teaching module to help you out: “What is a ‘plethora’?”

Well, one of the great model runs of our time has come out once again last night after yesterday’s great model run of our time based on the that morning’s data. SEVERAL rain days foretold in the next couple of weeks! One of these is actually a snow day, Feb, 25th, first predicted by the models about a week ago. This would be the “real deal” here in Catalina, not some “diabatic” (a weather term opposite of “adiabatic”) fluke as was our inch or so of snow two days ago, one that happened due to extremely heavy precip in the clouds above us, thus drawing the freezing level downward.

The first rain day is today, likely beginning after 5 PM AST, and then continuing into tomorrow for a second day. Here are some rainy/snowy snapshots from our friends in Canada at the EnviroCan weather service where they use a modified version of the ECMWF (European) forecast model here. The first panel is valid for 5 PM today just before the rain is supposed to begin. (If you don’t click on the panels below, you’ll need binoculars to see what I am talking about.)

Does this pattern look familiar in that first panel?

Yep. “SOSO” as we have been seeing all winter when storms strike. In the lower left panel you will see all that moisture streaming (colored regions) into our today’s cut off vortex from the south from the Mexican Pacific and linking up with a moist plume from the Gulf. Interesting to see that. Also, as it gets cut off, and great for us, it begins to dawdle while edging eastward along the US-Mexican Border, allowing those moist plumes to “filler up”, just like at a gas station. So, the rainy areas with this low should be expanding/appearing as clouds are enhanced; deepen up and begin to precip. Very exciting.

What’s been great is seeing the amount of precip predicted in Catalina from this low increase gradually over time as the models were seeing that it was not going as far south as they thought earlier. Here is another panel for this storm, valid for tomorrow afternoon at 5 PM AST. While the low has gone by to the south during the day tomorrow, this model suggests that it likely will have rained on and off during the day. This is because so much moisture arrived in this low that it has developed a “wrap around” band of rain to its north and west, good for us, kind of like a sucker punch. You should be able to see that happening today and tonight in this great IPS sat and radar link, as well as clouds “appearing” over the deserts to the west and south of us, and then developing echoes as they deepen.

Our local U of AZ Wildcat Weather Department has this great depiction of this “wrap around” development from their own model run here. Nice!

Here are the additional days ahead with more rain, and also, low snow levels. Mt Lemmoner’s rejoice! Below, the next panel, Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, this next trough.

Brrrrr, another cold blustery day Sunday, but notice this one is NOT a cut off and so will move through rapidly. Then, 4th panel, a dollop on Tuesday, just a minor trough passes by, and then, after a break, the Arctic iceberg on the 25th. Check this trough out in the last panel. Awesomely cold!

With luck, and a little verification of these predictions, maybe the washes will run later this spring!

The Cloud Report part of blog

Had some complicated, but nicely detailed Cirrus clouds float over in the early afternoon, a part of our invading storm’s circulation. This was followed by a large clearing and then encroaching Altocumulus patches trailing virga (ice crystals) in gorgeous, fine strands that wiggled this way and that in the setting sun’s light as that falling snow responded to slight changes in the wind below those little flakes of Altocumulus cloud. Enjoy.

The End.

0.34 inches! And a surprise snow job!

What a great storm, giving all it had to Catalina, 0.34 inches, when it looked like it might be considerably less. I really liked that storm, and will always remember it.

In case you missed the snow with flakes as big as pie plates (2-3 inches in diameter, small pies) because you work in an office with no windows, these photos below. They were equal to the biggest flakes¹ I’ve ever seen, including that December 1990 Seattle snow and blizzard with all the lightning. The greatest momentary depth was about an inch on the rise above Catalina town. Within minutes it was down to half an inch it seemed.

The temperature fell no less than 10 degrees as rain began to fall and the cold front slammed Catalina about 11 AM, from 52 F to 42 F. It looked like the temperature might be recovering, the rain had pretty much quit (read, clouds tops lowered in height as well), when this second part of that band (deeper clouds again) showed up with something resembling the earlier arcus cloud that had earlier crossed the Oro Valley and rammed up the slopes of the Catalinas. You can see under the dark line that the visibility drops tremendously. Don’t need to look at the radar to see that something is upon you at this point.

I thought it was going to be just heavier rain after the first rain spell that dropped a few hundredths, but after the rain started, there was some ice in it immediately, and then the big flakes began to come down, drawing the snow level down with them. Yes, that’s right, when the clouds are loaded with snow as yesterday’s were, a heavy load of snow drops the freezing level. It takes so much heat for the atmosphere to try and melt that boatload of snow coming down that it can’t keep up. Recall from physics that when melting ice, it stays at the same temperature 0 C (32 F) until it has completely melted. This phenomenon is due the “latent heat of fusion”, in this case, taking heat out of the air to melt the snow, which causes the snow level to fall. I think it was discovered by Stanley Pons and Martin Fleischmann, at the University of Utah some years ago. Both of whom went on to become quite famous for their work, I might add. So, if the freezing level in light, itty-bitty snowflakes is 4,ooo feet, it might stay there, and with them, you sometimes even get a thin layer of 0 C (32 F) air (an “isothermal” layer) where the flakes are melting.

Now drop massive 1-3 inch flakes out the bottom of the clouds. Well, its easy to imagine how the freezing level would have to drop as the air being drained of heat as it tries to melt those massive flakes, ones staying at 0 C until they are completely melted. You may have noticed that during that heavy, heavy snowfall yesterday that the temperature dropped another whopping 9 degrees from the first cold plunge from 42 F to 33 F in response to that heavy precip.

That really heavy precip was not anticipated, and was the reason why I was caught off guard by the snow here at 2500 to 3000 feet elevation. Had we (spreading the blame around with “we”) been thinking a snow rate of around 1-3 inches an hour, we would have been thinking of sharply lowered snow levels and snow (!) in Catalina. And, as you would guess, once the heavy snow ended, the temperature was quickly on the rebound into the 40s in the afternoon.

But that thought of heavy precip never crossed my mind, nor did the thought early yesterday that a really strong rain band, the one that caused it, would erupt to the west of us out of the blue practically as it did yesterday morning before rolling into Catalina. In retrospect, it was like a fastball down the middle of the plate with a 2-0 count, but you didn’t take a swing. It coulda been such a great forecast day if brain fully intact! This is why you remember storms!

Below, next to the shot of the major rainband as it came in, is the more dramatic appearing arcus cloud (that undercutting shelf cloud below the main Cumulus and Stratocumulus clouds) that announced the approach of the cold front and wind shift line about 10:30 AM yesterday morning. Man, that was a great sight! SO dramatic as that colder air swept across Oro Valley and the Tortolita Mountains, giving a boost to the overall cloud updrafts above it. Enjoy.

More Catalina precip in the near future. Details when it gets here Thursday night.

The End.

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¹Weatherfolk call flakes, “aggregates”, because they are made up of dozens of individual ice crystals that are locked together.

“Hello I must be going”

This trough about to cruise over Catalinaland is going too fast for much precip, “hence”, to use an old word, the title. (A quote from a Marx Brothers movie of yore.) We have about 12 h of rain potential in the form of brief passing showers from this morning to this evening. So, we will be lucky to get a 0.25 inches or thereabouts from this one today. BTW, if you look up between 5 PM and 8 PM you will see this trough go by at 20,000 feet above us or so. Better, deeper clouds before this time, flattening clouds after this time. Here is the several day loop, as produced by the University of Washington’s Weather Department’s model from last night’s data, and the “panel of passage” from that below, showing the trough (curved belt of winds) right over us.

The purple blob is not a sports related thing because this is from the Husky (purple and gold) Weather Department, but rather shows another puddle of even colder air than today’s trough is predicted to be over southwest Washington, violently spinning as it wobbles on down into the Southwest and gets stuck there for a day or so.

If the map below looks familiar its because it is the modis operandi for this winter where isolated spinning cyclones roll down the West Coast toward Arizona, ending up cut out of the main flow. And here’s another one with cold, and maybe rainy portent, for Catalina in a couple of days. Pretty remarkable how this pattern has recurred this whole winter beginning in early November, and after the long “sunny malaise” of several weeks, has returned. Awesome.

But wait, there’s more! (I am screaming here as in proper advertising)

This pattern doesn’t end with this current greyhound of a trough, but rolls along with one COLD trough after another, some dry, some with precip over the foreseeable future (still screaming)! The West and Southwest are going to answer the Euro cold of the past two weeks with some of our own that may garner headlines! February 25th, still looks like it might be a snow day in Catalina, rain changing to snow on that day! Can you imagine? Hang on.

A quote from Mark Albright, U of Washington research meteorologist and former WA State Climatologist before he was fired for saying that the Cascade Mountains of Washington and Oregon still get a lot of snow in spite of GW:

“Yeah, better prepare for snow on 25 Feb according to the new 14 Feb 00 UTC gfs run.”

So, there you have it.

Some cloud shots from yesterday’s gorgeous if cool day.

First Cumulus “pancake-us” (humilis), and second, the “supercooled” Altocumulus layer that announced the approach of today’s trough.

Sprinkles! (coded as “RW- -” if you are keeping a weather diary!) (Its not drizzle!)

Pretty excited up there, as usual.

The Cumulus and Stratocumulus clouds began filling in yesterday, and some shed ice/snow virga in the late afternoon. With that a few drops of rain (melted snow, of course) plopped down on Catalina. In case you missed those drops, here they are.

Also, here are a few shots of those clouds, ones based about 7,000 feet above us, judging from their height above Mt. Sara Lemmon.

Note the trails of virga dropping out of Stratocumulus clouds near and over the Cat Mountains in shots 3 and 4. That was the “worst” of our “storm” right then when the clouds got their deepest, which wasn’t all that deep, maybe 3,000 feet or 1 km.

By now, too, you will know instantly that the top temperatures of those clouds, to be able to produce ice, were lower than -10 C (14 F). This kind of knowledge about local clouds and ice, is also a great “ice breaker” at parties and barbecues. In fact, the TUS sounding suggests that the general top was about -12 to -13 C, with likely momentary tops protruding to -15 C or so. This would suggest marginal ice formation in clouds with bases as cold as ours were, about -7 to -8 C (about 18 F). (Strangely Believe It: warmer cloud bases with the same top temperatures as we had yesterday, leads to more ice formation, and precip.)

Below the photos is the mid-level weather map for the time the sprinkles occurred from the University of Washington. Since the wind follows the green contours on this map, you can see two things. The wind maximum at this level (500 millibars) is south of us over northern Mexico, and that the wind was on the verge of shifting to the WNW above us at map time (5 PM AST yesterday). That wind shift line is referred to as a trough, and at, and ahead of the wind shift line, clouds and precip are stimulated, while behind it, the air gets drier and clouds are mashed down or disappear. You could even see that happening to the west of us yesterday afternoon while the clouds were heavy and precipitating over the Catalinas. Those clouds over the mountains, too began to whither, and the virga ended, not JUST because it was heading toward evening and getting cooler, but also because of that trough was passing to the east at that time and the drier, descending air was moving in over us.

In this map, you will also see the much stronger trough over northern California, one that is racing toward us and will bring rain as early as tomorrow morning! Yay! However, the U of AZ massive Beowulf Weather Calculating Computer Cluster foretells only about a tenth of an inch from this next storm (here). Boo! I will suggest that might be a little on the light side, but that’s because I am biased and strongly want more rain than a tenth from this new storm; I’ll venture 0.25 inches or so here in Catalinaland by Wednesday morning.

More storms after this next one? Oh, yeah!

The End

The second coming…(of winter)

Check this jet stream forecast out, its pretty amazing now after such a long mid-winter oasis of sun and warmth, because in this link you will find that we here in southern Arizona are on the verge of being a trough magnet. The Great Southwest La Nina Rain Repeller is about to be mashed, chewed up and spit out. Six week droughty ridge? The one that’s threatened our emerging vegetation? Be-gone with you!

This upper level ridge collapse begins tomorrow with the first in an at least 15-day plus series of bone-chilling upper cold troughs from the north Pacific droop down the West Coast into Arizona. This could be fantastic for our spring flowers since above normal precip is just about a shoe-in now over the next two-three weeks! I am pumped since this pattern has now been calculated by our super computers for several days now and has, therefore, gained a lot of credibility, that is, this scenario is not a “one shot wonder” like some song groups such as the Strawberry Alarm Clock and that silly song they did, “Incense and Peppermint“, that sounded so profound but was just a bunch of words made up¹ (hear footnote) to sound profound but I liked that song anyway back then. This is so great, enjoy this forecast sequence, get ready, and watch those upper lows tumble down the coast! I can’t remember such a stormful series appearing our model predictions for Arizona in the last few years. Snow here is still a possibility in the latter part of this series. Snow for “snowbirds?” Oh, yeah.

More webby Cirrus yesterday, and some pretty Altocumulus.

Gotta have a couple of cloud shots. Yesterday had, again, some pretty special clouds. Here they are for your edification. First photo, Altocumulus opacus or castellaus (turrets likely on the top but we can’t see ’em here. 2) webby Cirrus, possibly could be labeled a perlucidus variety due to the near honey-comb pattern. That little fleck at the bottom is a new Cirrus in formation probably one or two minutes after it appeared. The last photo is a good example of the formative period of Cirrus and how it can evolve to patches. That really bright cloud above the car and below the sun is the beginning of a Cirrus cloud, and might well be composed of droplets. Liquid water has been reported realiably at temperatures as low as -44 C by Sassen (Science mag) in 1986 and at that same temperature but less reliably since that paper was rejected, by Rangno and Hobbs, also in 1986 .

The bright white flecks are clouds where intense ice formation goes on, likely having a few hundred thousand ice “germs” per liter , ones that are less than 10 microns in diameter when they appear. Like a puff of smoke, it disperses after that with trails forming as the largest fall out. But the fall speeds are so tiny that what you mostly get is a “smear” of ice crystals, like those clouds shown in the distance in the last photo, ones that are not so white.

Some will note that the last photo APPEARS to have been taken while I was driving to Benson or someplace like that on I-10, but that would be a crazy thing to do.

The End

¹IncenseandPeppermintsongorigin_NPR

Snow day February 25th; “webby” Cirrus

Remember, whether it happens or not, you heard about it FIRST here! Tell your friends.

Was pretty excited to see this 500 millibar map (about 15,000 to 20,000 feet above sea level) for the morning of February 25th below from our friends at IPS Meteostar. Pretty cool, eh? This from the model run based on global data taken at 5 PM AST yesterday.

Note on that map, we are encircled by the jet stream, indicated by the brownish orange regions at the outskirts of this behemoth of a trough, a requirement for winter precip here. How “be-a- moth-ian” is it?

Check out how abnormal this pattern is in the panel below this one, marked by the dark blue bulls-eye here in Arizona! So, its really an unusual pattern that is being calculated by the computer.

An aside: Oddly, we use contours of the height above the ground of a pressure surface for our upper level maps¹, and the LOWER that height is (such as over AZ in the top panel), the COLDER the air must be overall below that height. Low sea level pressure also adds to this height “deficit”, but mainly its the density of the cold air that does it. The more dense the air is, the more rapidly you reach above you any particular pressure level. (It really would be so much better to have pressure maps with highs and lows at a constant level above us than having to divert attention for this explanation.)

So, in the panel below, its the LOW HEIGHT of at which the 500 millibar pressure was reached (i. e., 5340 meters) that tells you this is a cold, cold, cold, cold system. (They say that redundancy is the key to remembering things. Remember, “534” (decameters) is COLD).

What DOES that the huge anomaly from normal in the bottom panel tell us weatherfolk?

The forecast map for February 25th is a real outlier model forecast, and so we shouldn’t be proclaiming a snow day or anything like that here 15 days in advance because it is such an extreme prediction and likely to go wrong. So, that’s what I have not done here.

HOWEVER, this outlier prediction shown below, is a part of a jet stream pattern that is developing RIGHT NOW in which low pressure systems and cold fronts will come zooming down into the Southwest from the northwest, one that is likely to go on for a couple of weeks or more. I would guess there might well be a hard freeze at some point, though not in the immediate future. Be ready!

This developing pattern also means more chances for rain here in Catalina over the next few weeks, and with the cool air ahead, holding our late winter vegetation together better even if there is not much precip because it won’t get burned out. So, overall, good news unless you came to AZ for consistently warm days. Ain’t gonna happen so enjoy the warmth we have now!

Webby Cirrus clouds

Yesterday, moving rapidly out of the north, were some “webby” looking Cirrus clouds. These are always seen only right after they have formed, maybe 10-20 minutes or so after that. They start out as tiny flecks (which for a moment might be termed, Cirrocumulus clouds), and, possibly, for the briefest moment, may be comprised of liquid. They then convert to ice and as the individual crystals grow and fall out, or are dispersed by turbulence, the tiny flecks become larger and larger and some of the ice falls out in strands.

After about a half an hour to an hour, they are usually just masses of tangled looking Cirrus without much cellular structure. Here’s what they looked like yesterday in that younger formative stage. At most upwind end (lower part of photo), the newest flecks have formed, while the older Cirrus elements are broadening and becoming “webby” looking. The likely ice crystals in these older Cirrus, for some additional annoying trivia, “bullet rosettes”, spikey-looking crystals having columns jutting out from the original “germ” ice particle. Nice images of bullet rosettes here at the beginning of a long article…

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¹In the olden days, weatherfolk liked to look at “isentropic surfaces” which helped them figure out where the air was sliding upward and likely to form clouds and precipitation before there were computer models. These areas were well represented on constant pressure maps where the cold and warm air was being pushed around.

Catalina Fifteen day forecast updated, “rain possible days” days only shown

5 PM AST data, last evening 11 AM AST data

8 Feb 9 Feb

Th, Feb 9 🙁

F, Feb 10 🙁

Sa, Feb 11 🙁

Su, Feb 12 🙁

M, Feb 13 🙁

T, Feb 14 🙂 🙂

W, Feb 15 🙂 🙂

Th, Feb 16 🙁 🙂

F, Feb 17 🙁

Sa, Feb 18 🙁

Su, Feb 19 🙁 🙂

M, Feb 20 🙁

T, Feb 21 🙁

W, Feb 22 🙁

Th, Feb 23 🙁

Symbolia: 🙁 = sunny, no chance of rain; 🙂 = rain possible

Forecasts based on WRF-GFS model run from 00 GMT, 9 Feb data.

The End

Jeckyll-Hyde models have future AZ rain once more after Big Miss today

Trying to feel better today about the huge miss, that “gutter ball” low that is slipping down the Baja coast toward MMZT (“Mazatlan” in weather identifier jargon) right now as I write, and trying to forget about what it could have been. Reminds me, too, of that critical dropped pass in the Superbowl by some guy in the last 40 seconds that could have changed the game, or that girlfriend who found out I was older than she thought and I went off the relationship possibility radar after that, etc. From the University of Washington, to sigh about, this map series for 500 millibars . Its good to sigh about things, shows you’re alive inside, have feelings that get crushed every so often. Hahahaha, sort of.

You will see that the winds at 500 millibars (18,000 feet ASL or so) around the Baja low are stronger on the back side (the green lines are closer together on the west side compared to the east side). Therefore, to paraphrase, “Don’t need no model” to know that this low going to head SE and away from us. Maybe it’ll reach the Galapagos Islands….dammitall.

As the low moves farther and farther away, the gradual ascent of air that produces all those clouds you see drifting up toward us from the south, weakens. The rain lessens, too, the clouds begin to thin and lift above the ground as they move into AZ. That’s what happens in these situations. That upper low needs to stay close for the clouds to remain thick be rain producers here.

So, even though the clouds look great on the satellite images, and are producing rain to the south of us here in Catalina, and are heading this way, they end up thinning and weakening as they do. Expect to see a lot of virga today from heavy Altostratus opacus clouds (mostly deep ice clouds), and that’s about it. But even a sprinkle would be nice, just to remind us again that it can still rain here.

Rain in the future?

Here is is, THREE chances the mods now say after having nothing just yesterday at this time. Two minimal events have shown up; one on the Sunday the 12th and again on the 14th, THEN this behemoth of a storm on the 23-24th, shown below! I am beside myself with excitement dreaming about how important I might be to my friends a couple of days before it hits! Though we know, by now, that what is shown below is as likely to be realized as an ice crystal forming in HELL, nevertheless, it is HOPE. Check it this out from IPS Meteorstar’s rendering of our US WRF-GOOFUS (“goofus” after about a week in advance) model and be happy! “Totally awesome!”

“In case you missed it” department; yesterday’s aircraft effects on Altocumulus clouds

The temperature of those “supercooled” clouds was around -20 C, perfect for aircraft to make holes and ice canals in them, a kind of inadvertent cloud seeding. Here are a couple of shots, the first, a hole with an ice patch in the middle, 2) and ice canal, and three strange optics caused by aircraft-produced ice crystals.

Enjoy, or be upset by artifact ice.

Hawaiian Storm and Big Wave Alert

Continuing the theme about meteorologists and the excitement we get over bad storms, a weather student at the University of Washington was beside himself and sent an e-mail to all of us on the weather list, in case the rest of us missed it, this NWS bad storm news for the Hawaiian Islands and giant surf. Seemed kind of funny, this extra effort to bring to our attention a really bad situation there. I do have to admit wanting to go see the waves crashing on the rocks and world class surfers who will come in their droves to surf’em. I had to smile reading this:

“Check out the front page of www.weather.gov right now – the unusual front Greg Hakim mentioned at the end of weather discussion today is the top story, above the map. If it’s changed by the time you’re reading this, here’s the message:

…Threat of Coastal Inundation for the Hawaiian Islands and the Marshall Islands…
Published: Tue, 07 Feb 2012 19:27:29 EST
High Surf Warnings are in effect for Hawaii, where the 10 to 20 foot waves observed today are expected to rise to 18-35 feet tonight. High tides and strong winds are expected to impact the Hawaiian Islands as a cold front moves across the area. This will increase the potential for coastal inundation, with potential impacts including road over-wash, sand or rocks on the roadways, and water approaching exposed property areas. The Marshall Islands have the potential to be similarly impacted. D etails…”

“Gutter ball”

Like an errant bowling ball (you remember bowling, don’t you?), the models are now pretty much in agreement that instead a “strike”, or at least a “spare”, or even a few “pins” being knocked down here in Catalina, by our approaching, spinning “ball” of low pressure, it is now foreseen to end up as a “gutter ball”, bypassing the “lane” entirely and heading off to to coast of southern Mexico, the way the Canadian forecast model had been saying all along. The US model had rain here for days on end, and it passed much closer to us. But not now. Below is the latest awful depiction from IPS Meteostar if you haven’t seen it yourself, one valid for Wednesday evening at 11 PM AST:

This is one of the worst forecast maps I have ever seen. You can see where the low ends up, over Cabo!

I felt I had to prepare you mentally since no models I can find out there have any rain here with that system now. And there is no rain seen in the next 15 days in the US WRF-GFS model, either! So La Nina!

This is an odd configuration down there off Mexico, too. This is normally the dry season in central and southern Mexico, so some Mazatlanians and Puerto Vallartans are going to get quite the winter surprise down there in a couple of days. It would be fun to go down there and see the surprise on the faces of vacationers and locals when this thing hits, to see, really how weather impacts people. As a meteorologist, I feel much more important when important weather strikes. People want to talk to you then and ask things; “How long is this going to last?” “Have you ever seen this happen before?” You’re really kind of the focal point of everyone’s life then. You’ve probably noticed how excited TEEVEE weather presenters get when weather is the lead in the news, with that kind of haughty smile, or pretending to be sad, because a hurricane just hit, or six feet of snow fell somewhere.

But when important weather hits, they become the stars of the news programs, and maybe “stars” for a couple of days! Yes, that’s what we weathermen and women like, odd weather, NOT normal weather where we have to think of “happy talk” and jokes and things to say to our fellow anchors instead of talking about something important. I have to say I am a part of that weather culture, too. But with no storm at hand, I will not be so important to my friends today¹.

Yesterday’s iridescent clouds, in case you missed them

Iridescent clouds are ones with especially tiny droplets that produce rainbow colors because the light is diffracted around the drops, and in doing so the white light from the sun is broken up into into its various wavelengths and colors that go with them (reddish, longer wavelengths, bluish, shorter wavelengths. For a nice explanation and spectacular examples, go here. Yesterday’s iridescence appeared yesterday in newly formed Cirrocumulus clouds.

^{Revealing personal note——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-1}This whole “storm-now-missing-us” thing and loss of importance reminds, too, of John Denver, and when he died in that plane crash. In those days before that happened, people used to say I looked like John Denver or thought I was John Denver, strangers even, and maybe I cultivated that look to make myself seem more important than I really was. It was great having a stranger want to talk to me, often a woman as it turned out. But then when John Denver died, I was sad, not for John or anything like that, though I did like some of his songs, but because I knew I pretty soon people would not ask me if I was John Denver and want my autograph, as happened in a Durango, Colorado, supermarket where I lived. I was pretty bummed out back then, really, and that’s the way I feel about this “gutter ball” thing today. Below, me as “John Denver.” BTW, mom liked to be “Marilyn Monroe” so that she would seem more important, so this is kind of a family culture we Rangnos have to boost our self-esteems. It really helps when you’re only a weatherman or other ordinary person to be somebody famous! There was a guy just last night at the Fox Theatre here in Tucson pretending to be former Beatle, John Lennon! I’ll bet he felt great because it was just like John Lennon actually being there!

Catalina February rain climo

Its been February for awhile, Groundhog Day has passed without incident, and I suppose some climatological information might be of interest. February has the highest average rainfall of any WINTER month, though it has come up short in promise so far with a big fat zero. The models tell us that there is still a chance of rain this mid-week. And, of course, as the prior rains have this winter, the coming chance of rain involves another one of those erratic cutoff lows, ones that the models have a hard time with, humans, too. Here’s a preview from IPS Meteostar based on last evening’s data taken at 11 PM AST. The chart below is valid for Wednesday evening at 11 PM, about the time rain chances are greatest. As you can see, the strongest winds around this low (brownish regions) are on the west and southwest side, meaning that the low will move off to the southeast, farther away from us after Wednesday evening rather than come toward us. “Dang!” The Canadian model has this cut off low going off the south boundary of their forecast map, somewhere down toward the Equator, a complete miss that is just too horrible to contemplate. In that event, maybe Acapulco will get some rain .

In the meantime, below is a chart of the days on which it has rained over the past 35 years here in Catalina. Looks pretty noisy, no sign of a decrease in chances of rain through the whole month, no sign of any “singularities¹“, short term climate deviations. The decreasing chance of rain, something we know is going to happen, is not yet seen. Hard to grasp how quickly that period where the rain chance drops off to almost zero is “bearing down” on us, as a fan of the Arizona Wildcats might put it.

The End

¹A technical discussion of what climate “singularities” are and how to find SOME of them here: Mapes_climate harmonics_mapesetal