We experienced something “special” and horrible this past water year: It was TWO standard deviations below average! Calling climate change news conference now…
How’d we get here?
September was the only month in the past 12 with a noticeable rainfall total above average and the desert showed it with no spring greening, and barely one at the end of the summer rain season. The previous low water year total was 9.39 inches in the 1999-2000 water year, to give you some idea how “off the charts” we were this water year. But much of Arizona had more generous rains in September than Catalina, but probably too much all at once at Globe.
Is this the new normal? I don’t think so. However, it is notable that our average water year total since 2000 is only 14.81, down almost four inches from the WY average up to that point. However, there are reasons for that; big Niñoes and a big spurt from Mt. Pinatubo in the 15 years after the Catalina record started. If the Catalina record had started in the droughty years of the 1950-early 1970s, you would not see a decline.
The last 30 days brought just over 2.5 inches to this site, beginning with a 0.95 inches drenching on August 26th, and the desert. despite how late the rains came, responded in spades. The free range cattle on the State Trust lands, within a couple of weeks finally had new growth to munch on. It was fantastic to see that!
The photo below was taken on September 17th, before the green started to fade under our declining sun and longer nights. I was coming out of the Sutherland Wash with doggie, Cody.
The Climate Prediction Center of NOAA has a La Niña in the works. As you may know, a La Niña is not so good for wintertime precipitation in Arizona. The odds are that our below rainfall totals will continue in the coming months, with the usual outlier, and I hope that outlier is “ginormous,” as they can be.
===========
