Altocumulus clouds – Page 15

Water year status (October through September precip)

As water year winds down, just a couple of weeks left, its worthwhile to see where we are. Pretty dismal. You can see why the spring wildflower bloom was minimal around here. Great December, though!

Can there be any rain before the official end of the month, measurable rain that might improve our dismal 10.83 inches, droughty total?

Not if you believe our own WRF-GFS model run from last night, but, “yes” if you like Canada and the Canadian GEM model. It has some rain in the area for us on Sunday the 22nd. Here it is:

Valid at 5 PM, Sunday September 22nd. Note green in SE AZ (lower right panel), and blue for moist air around 10,000 feet ASL in the left lower panel. Excellent model run.

In the meantime, our own model run has the moist plume WAY to the east at that same time, and so no rain here. Here is that map from the WRF-GFS , as rendered by IPS Meteostar, for moisture around 10,000 feet ASL. The blue moist plume in the Canadian model above (get microscope out) is the same as the green one below, except that the green moist plume is shoved off to the east and south. Dang.

Also valid for 5 PM AST, Sunday September 22nd. The green plume here across NM and into the Plains should be compared with the blue plume at this level (700 mb) in the Canadian run above.

Saw some clouds in the moonlight just now. Seems that drier air can’t quite get rid of our summer regime moist plume, one that even yesterday was close enough to us to have produced a thunderhead off toward Mt. Graham and vicinity to the NE. The chances are small we’ll get any more measurable rain, but as in sports, that moist plume seems to be hanging around, and you know that old sports saying that when heavily favored teams let underdogs “hang around”; don’t blow them out as expected, upsets can happen. Well, of course, that’s what I am hoping for, just that bit more rain to at least push us over the 11 inch mark. Its not a BIG hope, just 0.17 inches more before October 1st.

Here are a couple of cloud shots from yesterday:

SONY DSC — 7:34 AM. When it seemed the mid-level moisture should be gone, there it is, hanging around. These Altocumulus clouds meant that Cumulus were also likely to form in the above normal heating we have going on now.

The End

Nearby locations get shafted as summer thunderstorms go on for one more day

Looks now, in spite of a few Altocumulus clouds around that yesterday was the LAST day of our summer rain season in terms of having rain. Much drier air moving across Arizona from the west now. Kinda sad about it, still yesterday was GREAT, a final tribute in a way. Will have some stats tomorrow on how we did here in Catalina/SH compared to normal. Big trough comes in around the 25th to give a preview of cool fall weather. I suppose you’ll like that, not being hot every day.

In the meantime, your cloud day yesterday below, in detail, of course.

9:12 AM. Pretty Altocumulus/ floccus and castellanus (has a flat bottom).

11:38 AM. Early, plumpy Cumulus clouds over Oro Valley and the Torts give hope for some rain. On the right, a "cloud street", one issuing off the Catalinas toward the Torts. — 11:38 AM. Early, plumpy Cumulus clouds over Oro Valley and the Torts give hope for some rain. On the right, a “cloud street”, one issuing off the Catalinas toward the Torts.

12:08 PM. Here's a promising sign. Its only 12:08 PM and there's a wall of Cumulonimbus lining the high terrain N to NNE of Catalina/SH. Could be that there is still enough water up top to support a thunderhead 'round here. — 12:08 PM. Here’s a promising sign. Its only 12:08 PM and there’s a wall of Cumulonimbus lining the high terrain N to NNE of Catalina/SH. Could be that there is still enough water up top to support a thunderhead ’round here.

12:26 PM. NOthing much going on in this cloud street. But it will amazingly enough. — 12:26 PM. Nothing much going on in this cloud street. But it will, amazingly enough.

12:47 PM. Since I want you to think exactly the same things that I do, you should have thought, "Huh. That's not a bad cloud base just over there on top of Oro Valley. Wonder if its going to do anything (form ice) topside?" At this point, you start obsessing over this cloud bottom, not leaving it for even a minute because you don't want to miss anything. Maybe you call a friend, too, and tell them about it. — 12:47 PM. Since I want you to think exactly the same things that I do, you should have thought, “Huh. That’s not a bad cloud base just over there on top of Oro Valley. Wonder if its going to do anything (form ice) topside?” At this point, you start obsessing over this largest cloud bottom, not leaving it for even a minute because you don’t want to miss anything. Maybe you call a friend, too, and tell them about it. That’s probably what you should have done.

12:55 PM. You're upset you didn't call a friend because now you see that there's a ton of ice up at the top, no shaft coming out of the bottom, but there surely will be. You could have let them know there was going to at least be rain, especially if they live over there by Saddlebrooke Ranch. — 12:55 PM. You’re upset you didn’t call a friend because now you see that there’s a ton of ice up at the top, no shaft coming out of the bottom, but there surely will be. You could have let them know there was going to at least be rain, especially if they live over there by Saddlebrooke Ranch.

1:00 PM. Just five minutes later, the shaft is already on the ground!

1:08 PM. Thunder galore by now, and a surprising even to me, strong thunderstorm. And there wasn't another one around for about 50 miles in all directions! How lucky were we? Plenty. — 1:08 PM. Thunder galore by now, and a surprising even to me, strong thunderstorm. And there wasn’t another one around for about 50 miles in all directions! How lucky were we? Plenty.

4:20 PM. The last thunderstorm of the day was over there behind the Catalinas. Could here thunder from. I love Ms. Mt. Lemmon and the Catalinas, but lately they've been letting me down. No thunderheads have shot upward from them, only morning Cu and afternoon moderate Cu, mostly, "hold the ice"; not even deep enough to form ice. Its hard to keep caring for something when its always letting you down. — 4:20 PM. The last thunderstorm of the day was over there behind the Catalinas. Could here thunder from. I love Ms. Mt. Lemmon and the Catalinas, but lately they’ve been letting me down. No thunderheads have shot upward from them, only morning Cu and afternoon moderate Cu, mostly, “hold the ice”; not even deep enough to form ice. Its hard to keep caring for something when its always letting you down.

6:36 PM. Still, it was a great cloud effort yesterday, and here even in the evening, some are still putting out. And with a couple of drops from the earlier storm to the NW, we got to register a trace of rain in The Heights.

Seeing cloud tops over Prescott from Catalina; Douglas tops 16 inches in summer rain

Here they are:

2:53 PM. Cumulonimbus tops with their anvils line horizon northwest to north. The ones that begin this series on the left are in the Prescott area. See radar chart below. Cumulus fractus clouds are in the foreground.

ann prc-1 — 2:45 PM AST. Arizona radar echoes yesterday at the time of the photo. Note little green patch SW of Prescott, maybe Peoples Valley area. Radar courtesy of WSI Intellicast. That would be the leftmost tops.

6:41 PM. Nice sunset with "surprise" Cumulonimbus located NW of Sells. Nice little virga patch hanging down from some Altocumulus next to it. — 6:41 PM. Nice sunset with “surprise” rogue Cumulonimbus located NW of Sells. Nice little virga patch hanging down from some Altocumulus next to it. Did not expect a Cb in that direction at the end of the day. Bodes well for today; having Cbs that are a little closer to us.

6:46 PM. Totally clear skies, moon intact, S-SW, though. Stratified smog layer is at bottom. Smog was much less yesterday than feared it would be after the afternoon invasion of the day before. — 6:46 PM. The sky was completely clear, however, moon intact, S-SW. Note stratified smog layer at the bottom.

————————-

Our desert greening seems to be reaching its peak now, and so it would be nice for you to get out and see it before football day on Saturday and it could start to wilt that bit under our drier conditions. Just after sunrise, and just before sunset, there is some great lighting on our weedy summer desert vegetation.

———————-

The weather ahead….

Canadians¹ think the tropical air will hang around SE Arizona for a few more days, with the chances of rain actually increasing that bit on Saturday. The US WRF-GFS model is not quite so generous with precip here, so we will ignore that one. But, in any event, we should have pretty Cumulus, and distant Cumulonimbus clouds for a few more days before The End, after which we have to wait for a hurricane/tropical storm to roar up the coast of Baja and across Yuma to get any real rain.

In the meantime, I am wondering whether you have taken that trip I suggested to SE Arizona to see the vegetation explosion resulting from this summer’s extraordinary rains they’ve gotten down there? Douglas, for example, has just crossed over the 16 inches mark for this summer a couple of days ago, the wettest summer of the past 100 years down that way. The summer desert vegetation down there must be extraordinary, too, and it would really be worth seeing. I will get down there for sure!

It has continued to rain extraordinary amounts of rain in western Arizona. Here is a depiction of just the past seven days ending yesterday morning (today’s image is not out yet). Its a great sight, considering our “extreme” and “exceptional” drought designations over that way.

Seven day radar-derived precipitation totals for the US ending yesterday at 5 AM AST. Just look at how Arizona overall has fared during this period. Amazing. Should make a good dent in our drought conditions. And the generous rains in droughty NM are foretold to continue, good news indeed. (BTW, the excessive precip around Salt Lake City is bogus, due to an error.) There are holes in mountainous areas due to blocked radar beams, so this map under represents the rain that actually occurred. Need more radars!

———————–

¹The writer exhibits bias here due to his precipophilic personality combined with having most of his relatives living in Canada. Also, the cruder Canadian model with its larger grid sizes tends to smooth out precip over larger areas than the US WRF-GFS model shown here.

Nice lighting

Clouds were so-so yesterday, didn’t deliver the big punch as one U of AZ mod foretold (Samaniego Ridge and vicinity only got a tenth of inch or so compared with the 1-2 inches that was predicted), but, the lighting yesterday morning, oh, my, that lighting on the mountains and elsewhere as little breaks in the overcast Altocumulus/Stratocumulus deck zipped by, were beyond description. Lost control and began snapping photos like a turtle or toad surrounded by little flying somethings that they thought would be great to eat. Here are SOME:

For the day in review go to the U of AZ time lapse movie. Its really pretty interesting, and if you thought it was a dull and disappointing day, at least it will go by fast.

At least we did receive another 0.04 inches here in SH-Catalina over the past 24 h, though it fell at an excruciatingly low rate; didn’t think that little tipping bucket would ever tip for that ONE hundredth amount. Seemed like drops fell for hours before it did. BTW, the forever reminder: it wasn’t drizzle precip, but rain, very light

RAIN!

(This is my legacy; that when I am done, folks say; “You know, I knew that guy. I don’t remember a thing that he said except that drizzle isn’t a few drops here and there, but rather a thick, misty kind of precipitation that floats under your umbrella if there’s much wind. Comes from the coalisions-with-coalescence rain formation process, one that doesn’t require ice, though I don’t know why I would want to remember something like that.”)

Today….

Another fun-filled cloudy day with rain here and there. “Take Me to the River“, as David Byrne wrote, and was covered by the Songs of Science by Bill Nye et al (which I can’t find online, dang), the tropical one. Well, its here, that tropical one, passing right over head and so the POTENTIAL for big rains continues for another day or so. Lots of rain predicted twixt now and midnight by that U of AZ WRF-GFS mod–you can go here and check it out. Of course, it wasn’t so great yesterday, but they’re just too good most of the time to discard and so maybe today and tonight, the errors won’t be so great and we’ll pick up an inch or so hereabouts.

The End.

Boring but intersting day behind us

Well, it seems that the WP spell checker doesn’t work on titles. Intersting. Oh, well, “intersting” gives today’s cloud harangue a folksy, accessible aura I think.

So not much happened yesterday. Kind of dank with that mid-level Altocumulus overcast, a few sprinkles-its-not-drizzle¹ here and there most of the day. I noticed I didn’t take even 100 photos, a photographic measure of local sky boredom. Three hundred plus? Now that’s a really great day!

Here’s what we had, the first photo of the day just after 9 AM (a little slow off the mark due to boredom):

9:13 AM. Altocumius opacus, some light precip coming out beyond Pusch Ridge. But that big clearing, filled with huge Cumulus portent was a fine sight. — 9:13 AM. Altocumius opacus, with a lower patch of Stratocumulus with some light precip coming out beyond Pusch Ridge. But that big clearing on the horizon, filled with huge Cumulus portent was a fine sight.

9:30 AM. Going down Oracle toward Tucson, that gritty looking rain haze was apparent on Samaniego Ridge. People often don't realize how much we descend when going into Tucson from Catalina-its-not-Tucson, but I think this shot demonstrates that incline. — 9:30 AM. Going down Oracle toward Tucson, that gritty looking rain haze was apparent on Samaniego Ridge and on Ms. Lemmon. It was nice to see.

Was going down to the south part of Tucson, well, South Tucson, to look at a car for sale on Craig’s List. Since yesterday was so boring, will show shot of that car to break up the boredom to follow. The sellers wanted $3,000 for it. I thought it was a little high after I saw it up close. Looked like it had been sitting there awhile, maybe 10 years, too:

10:06 AM. Car for sale, $3,000. Maybe they meant pesos, or rupees. — 10:06 AM. Car for sale; $3,000. Maybe they meant pesos, or rupees. I deferred. Missed a lot of lack of action in Catalina, too, in the hours it took to go take a closer look down Tucson way. Real nice folks, though, were offering it. Cute story about how they met. He was from Bremerton, WA, called down to complain about some work she had done, and then decided to move to Arizona and next door to her! Gossip content always jacks up ratings and that’s what we’re into here. What would we do if we didn’t have titillating gossip? (This is a true story, BTW.)

12:32 PM. Altocumulus lenticularis, produced by an air bounce off the Catalinas, embedded in Altostratus — 12:32 PM. Altocumulus lenticularis clouds (hover clouds that don’t move), at left and at center above the dark tuft. The lenticular clouds were produced by an air bounce off the Catalinas. They formed at the base of an Altostratus layer. Other patchea of Altocumulus clouds are seen in the distance. The dark tuft in the foreground was first beginning of a Cumulus cloud near the Catalinas (Cu fractus), but it went nowhere.

4:18 PM. That Altocumulus lenticularis, still hanging on. — 4:18 PM. That Altocumulus lenticularis, still hanging on, though it has moved in position a bit.

For a terrific view of yesterday’s clouds and those lenticulars that recurred over and over again, to be redundant, go to the U of AZ time lapse movie for yesterday. It also demonstrates how breezy it was up there at cloud levels compared with our normal sluggish summer flow, and how complex behaving clouds are even when they appear dank and uninteresting.

Of course, we had a nice clearing, and some Cumulonimbus clouds arose in the distance toward the border during the mid and late afternoon. And as the sun went down, another thick patch of middle clouds started coming across the Catalinas with light rain, and with that, a rainbow appeared. Quite nice.

6:30 PM. A rainbow briefly appeared as another patch of lightly raining As/Ac clouds approached producing a segment of a rainbow just beyond the Catalinas. — 6:30 PM. In case you missed it again, a rainbow briefly appeared as another patch of lightly raining As/Ac clouds approached

Seems like a nice place to quit inserting photos.

Today?

Very light rain over the past 2 hours, and so we’ve accumulated another 0.03 inches on top of the 0.42 inches yesterday. U of AZ mod run from 11 PM last night seems to think we’re in for a pretty good rain day today. Seems to be predicting something around 1.5-2 inches on Samaniego Ridge before midnight (mod run not done yet, either!) Well, these forecasts tend to run on the high side, but still, this could be a fabulous day here in the tropical river we’re in! Charging camera batteries now….

BTW, flow is now from the south, and so you’ll want to be looking toward Pusch Ridge for “incomings.”

The End.

————————

¹Another reminder about the difference between “drizzle” and rain. You must know this. Sprinkles isn’t drizzle!

Stormy weather; 0.42 inches so far

Three thunderstorms with rain here, one overnight, have dumped 0.42 inches here in SH (Sutherland Heights) More is virtually certain. 1.18 inches fell at Horseshoe Bend Road in Saddlebrooke. More reports here and here and here and here, to name a few. Can’t wait for daylight to see how the desert looks.

What an interesting day, beginning with the odd scene of an Altocumulus lenticularis overhead, telling us the wind was substantial and from the east or southeast. Usually you see this cloud in the cool half of the year on the other side of the Catalinas, but there it was, filled with mystery and lightning!

1:54 PM. From the cloud bottoms collection, this. Just about everyone fulfilled its promise by having a — 1:54 PM. From the cloud bottoms collection, a photopgraphic niche of mine, this overhead view just before Saddlebrooke got dumped on. Just about every wide cloud bottom fulfilled its promise by releasing rain yesterday, even some pretty small ones. I thought this shot was exceptional. Price, $1,500. Would look great on somebody’s wall; great texture!

2:06 PM, just three minutes later! Saddlebrooke about to be pounded. Look for golf balls in the CDO.

6:06 PM. Then after a long break in the action, kind of like halftime at a fubball game, those magnificent Cumulus began to reform, climb up once again to levels where they could form ice and rain. I thought this sight was reel perty. Took many photos of the same thing, that's the way it is with photographers. — 6:06 PM. Then after a long break in the action, kind of like halftime at a fubball game, those magnificent Cumulus began to reform, climb up once again to levels where they could form ice and rain. I thought this sight was reel perty. Took many photos of the same thing, that’s the way it is with photographers.

“Little Swirl”, a cyclonic eddy really, but could be somebody’s name, too, to SE moving NW and over us this morning: Look here. Will help keep showers going today, but also check with the real experts. Must quit here as time expires for big bandwidth flow.

Zzzzzzzz, zzzzzzz….reprise of a soporific summer day

Though the the castellanus twins dropped by yesterday:

10:24 AM. After a hazy start, this pair showed up, two perfect examples of Altocumulus castellanus, side by side. Have never see this before. — 10:24 AM. After a hazy start, this pair showed up; two perfect examples of Altocumulus castellanus, side by side. Have never see this before. Castellanus indicate a layer of the atmosphere where the temperature declines more rapidly than in other moist layers, allowing little baby turrets to extrude from the base that bit. Sometimes, though, they can reach high enough and get large enough to have virga. But not yesterday. You definitely should not have logged any virga from these clouds.

Altocumulus castellanus, that is. Suggests atmo in this layer ripe for convection, but unless there’s some humidity below these clouds, it can be kind of an old saw that doesn’t work out a lot of times, unless they themselves get overly enthusiastic and begin to shower and thunder. It happens.

While yesterday had these interesting clouds, and a couple of distant Cumulonimbus tops, the only real excitement was this dumpster NW of us shown below. Did any one drive over there to get under it and measure the rain it put out? I would dole out some extra credit if you did. Otherwise, we’re going to have to rely on radar to estimate how much came down over there.

1:50 PM. Surprisingly dense rain shaft off the NW from a rogue Cumulonimbus. Nothing much else really all afternoon. Boring! Remember how we used to yell, BORING!!!!" in that movie when that guy was talking? You don't find people/whole audiences yelling at the movie screen anymore because something is going on they don't like and feel motivated to comment on. People are more reserved now days. — 1:50 PM. Surprisingly dense rain shaft to the NW from a rogue Cumulonimbus. Nothing much else really all afternoon. Boring! Remember how we used to yell, BORING!!!!” in that movie when that guy was talking¹? You don’t find people/whole audiences yelling at the movie screen anymore because something is going on they don’t like and feel motivated to erupt with a comment. People are more reserved now days and hold in feelings at movies, probably not the best thing.

4:46 PM. The Lemmon cloud factory was on strike most of the day, and here, that dark blue sky made you think of college football. — 4:46 PM. The Lemmon cloud factory was “on strike” most of the day, and here, that dark blue sky made you think of college football.

6:15 PM. Evening clump of Stratocumulus trails a little snow from its bottom. Lately we've had "blooms" energized convection, growth of Cumulus, but yesterday was, well, BORING!!!!! — 6:15 PM. Evening clump of Stratocumulus trails a little snow from its bottom. Lately we’ve had “blooms” energized convection, growth of Cumulus, but yesterday was, well, BORING!!!!! Nice little flourish of Cirrus, though.

The week in rain

Since most of Arizona is unpopulated, and even when there are people, not everyone reports rain, so we have to rely on radar-derived rainfall amounts to “fill in the blanks” Are you a “blank”? Think about it. Now looking back at this past 7-days, ending yesterday, and using radar for any sense of what happened all over the State here’s what we get, from WSI Intellicast. We had an amazing 7 days of rainfall, rains that did so much to dent the NW AZ drought with many inches of rain. Need more, of course, but here it is:

Radar-derived rainfall for the week ending August 27th, 2013. Look at those 4-8 inch totals W of Prescott! And indications of over 8 inches a tad west of Needles!

The weather ahead

U of WA mod, and his one , crunching last afternoon’s global data, have the size of clouds picking up today and over the next couple of days. Yay. Need more rain.

The End.

————–
¹Furthermore, it was supposed to be a horror movie, and instead it had SINGING! Unbelievable. No wonder people were upset when they saw it!

Water vapor molecules set to increase; mid-August chance of rain, too

I wasn’t going to blog today, but rather than disappoint my reader, and seeing a ooupla photos that were kind of nice, I pushed through the laziness. I hope you’re happy now….

Also, humid air is pushing up from the S today, and while it hasn’t gotten here yet (dewpoint here in Sutherland Heights next to my gravel driveway being but 36 F now, its in the 60s at Yuma, Nogales and Douglas. With that invasion of water vapor molecules comes a slightly better chance of a shower, or at least SEEING one somewhere! You might hang out some wash today to further increase the moisture content of the air; it would be a more basic form of “cloud seeding”, maybe “cloud doping.”

Sunset to sunrise, because they imported that way:

Factoid: The amount of rain that continues to fall in the formerly severe drought areas of Kansas and Oklahoma continues to astound. Here, from WSI Intellicast, their 7-days of radar-derived totals. Also note the substantial rains in eastern Colorado and New Mexico. Good news for all.

Radar-derived rainfall totals for the 7 days ending August 13th. Areas of dark green to yellow indicate totals of between four and TWELVE inches.

(colon deliberately left above at left to provide some tension, some anticipation in case you’re bored already)

5:55 AM. Flakes of a droplet cloud, Altocumulus, rather suddenly appeared or moved in.

Altocumulus of the morning, hold the ice

Those morning Altocumulus clouds (no ice) were pretty yesterday! Took too many shots, as usual. Here are a couple:

The temperature at the top of these clouds, located at about 14,000 feet above sea level: 2 C, 35 F.

2:48 PM, near closing time at the Marana Landfill Dump looking east. — 2:48 PM. A mid-afternoon mammoth Cumulonimbus capillatus incus arises in the distance toward the Rincon Mountains as closing time at the Marana Landfill Dump nears. Dumps, as you likely know, are one of the great research sites in America, as they are to anthropologists sudying the ancients. You can’t imagine how excited anthros get when find a previously undiscovered dump used by ancient peoples. Its the same today by those who refer to themselves as “trashologists.” Sez a lot about the society of the time, and what they did. Think of how important to us the plastic bag will seem to our society by future anthros and trashologists! Let’s face it, we LOVE the plastic bag! I noticed quite a few here, too, kind of blowing around all over.
Gritty-not-pretty photo: $2,500. (Cost $10 to get in and take this photo, so passing along some of the cost to consumers.) Photographer’s note: This may be one of the most important photos in the GNP collection.

Afternoon clouds smaller than expected

Yesterday at this time it appeared that we had a good chance of a few high-based Cumulonimbus clouds with some virga and the chance of a sprinkle making it down to the ground. Well, the precipitating clouds were even higher than expected, but with some nomenclature razzle-dazzle, I think we can say that the forecast of Cumulonimbus clouds in our domain did, in fact, verify. Below, the first use of the cloud descriptor, “Nanocumulonimbus.”

6:57 PM. Zoomed view of Nanocumulonimbus capillatus producing snow flurry as it drifted toward Catalina. — 6:57 PM. Zoomed view of “Nanocumulonimbus capillatus” or maybe “calvus” (center; too small to tell which species for sure) producing a snow flurry aloft (virga) as it drifted toward Catalina.

The early morning clouds were spectacular full of promise for yesterday, promise that went mostly, well, entirely really, unfulfilled. Here are those sweet morning clouds, more like Altocumulus castellanus, though some reached sizes that they would have to be termed, Cumulus congestus and Cumulonimbus, the latter with some virga and light rainshowers to the ground.

5:51 AM. Distant Cumulus congestus or Cb calvus NNW of Catalina. Held a lot of promise for the remainder of the day. But was just too dry in the end.

6:04 AM. I thought this was a great scene because that little wedge of brilliant white tells you that one turret from this grouping has shot many thousands of feet higher into the thinner air where the sun's light has not been diminished by the passage through the lower denser atmosphere. Very pretty I thought. — 6:04 AM. I thought this was a great scene because that little wedge of brilliant white, center, tells you that one turret from this grouping has shot many thousands of feet higher into the thinner air where the sun’s light has not been diminished by the passage through the lower denser atmosphere that results in the brownish colors of the surrounding clouds. Very pretty I thought.

Today’s clouds

U of AZ WRF-GFS mod thinks there’s a better chance of showers and thunderstorms here in Catalina today, but this is dependent on a easterly surge of moist air this morning. Don’t get your hopes up too much, since we’re kind of on the westerly edge of this surge, and then it goes away. SO, everything really has to come together, and right now, our dewpoints are really down (37 F here) and the moist air is still east of TUS. But, as you know, some of the fun of weather forecasting is weather watching and seeing what Nature is actually going to do.

The weather way ahead

Mod outputs, including spaghetti plots, not looking that great for a full resumption of our summer rain season.
But, with a trough tending to recur along the West Coast in these plots, there’s the chance of a tropical storm being steered this way late in the month. Hey, remember August 1951? Maybe that will happen again in AZ to make August a more respectable rain month after sputtering most of the month…. Dreaming, of course, of the unlikely.

The End.