Cloud-maven – Page 41 – About real clouds, weather, cloud seeding and science autobio life stories by WMO consolation prize-winning meteorologist, Art Rangno

Rain doesn’t show, but sunset does

Yesterday was equal to the most potent cloud day that cloud maven person has seen since moving to Catalina in 2008; from clear skies to thunder before 10 AM! Fortunately, in spite of all the incredible cloud scenes around, fine, tall clouds so early in the day, CMP was able to control himself and only take 190 photos yesterday, and will share only a 100 of the best with you.

Kind of lost interest, though, when the sky went gray in Altostratus opacus cumulonimbogenitus after about 3 PM. Didn’t get any rain here, either, which was a disappointment.

Oh, well, “Today is another day”, to paraphrase Scarlet O. And another chance for an isolated TSTM to land on us.

Saw some of the most intense rainshafts that you can see here, likely producing 1.5 to 3 inches over there on the Tort Mountains around 2 PM and thereafter yesterday. Thunder was continuous from it for awhile.

But, in poor little Catalina, not even a drop. Even though Altostratus opacus cumulonimbogenitus (copied and pasted that linguistic monstrosity to keep things moving) did not rain here, there were a few drops that got to the ground from it around James Kreig Park where CMP taking batting practice for some reason with a friend. The balls were winning.

In spite of the boring cloud scene in mid-late afternoon in Altostratus opacus cumulonimbogenitus, the skies were open far to the west and allowed a sunset display that was pretty much unequaled in CMPs experience anywhere. So, though it didn’t rain here, we got a nice light show. Hope you saw it. Go to the end to skip a lot of excess verbage and less interesting photos.

The end of the day, BTW, was ruined when a TEEVEE meteorologist came on during a local news program told his viewers that “drizzle” was falling somewhere in the area. My faced turned red, I clinched my fist, and pounded the dining room table, veins standing out. This is exactly why I don’t watch TEEVEE. Under my watch, he’d have been fired before he got off his next sentence off.

But that’s me, CMP, a person who cares deeply about educational standards. As a public service, once again I begin this blog with a photo of what’s not “drizzle”, its that important. Remember that guy (actually, a world famous prof) I told you about that asked me to leave his office and never come back right after CMP told him that it had been drizzling outside? Q. E. D. (The occurrence of drizzle meant that all of that professor’s peer-reviewed body of work in clouds was in error. OK. enough past interesting personal history… Well, maybe this; told him there was a lot more ice in his clouds than he was reporting before the drizzle comment. You could see why that prof might be “concerned.”

Evidence of a "sprinkle", or as we would officially call it, RW--, a "very light rainshower", July 30th, 2010. — Evidence of a “sprinkle”, or as we would officially call it, RW–, a “very light rainshower”, July 30th, 2010. “Its not drizzle, dammmitall!”, as we say around here. Thanks to JG for this photo.

Drizzle, of course, is fine, CLOSE TOGETHER drops smaller than 500 microns in diameter (0.02 inches!) that almost float in the air. You can get really wet biking in drizzle, and forget about a baseball cap keeping those drops off your glasses. They can barely fall out of a cloud; you have to be real close to the base to even experience them and that’s why drizzle is commonly experienced falling from very low-based clouds along coast lines.

You can tell how much that erroneous report of “drizzle” falling in Tucson affected me in how I am starting this blog with an educational soliloquy instead of jumping into cloud photos.

By now, you’d probably like to skip to the chase, and going to the U of AZ time lapse is a good way to do that. Unfortunately, as the storm hit the campus, the power went out for a couple of hours and you miss a good part of it and end of skipping from the middle of the storm to, let’s hear it, “Altostratus opacus cumulonimbogenitus.” Its great when you can say big terms like that; it’ll make you sound more educated than you probably are!

OK, after LONG diversionary material, a sampling of yesterday’s fabulous clouds, so many will post them as thumbnails so’s I can cram in more, and, that glorious sunset, too:

8:27 AM. I've already taken a hundred photos! I am beside myself on how these clouds are growing so early in the morning! — 8:27 AM. I’ve already taken a hundred photos! I am beside myself on how these clouds are growing so early in the morning!

7:34 AM. Cu already! — 8:49 AM. Go, baby, go, make some ice.

9:30 AM. Unbelievable, this tower piling up like that over the low Tortolita Mountains, especially since CMP was clueless about an early start to convection like this!

9:32 AM. Cu congestus are converting to Cumulonimbus capillatus, the ice machine is on! See writing on photo.

9:46 AM. Sprouts! That background turret is far higher, has reached maybe 30 kft, compared to the one in the prior photo. Thunder on the mountain beginning! Unbelievable. What a day this is turning out to be.

10:25 AM. Oh, so pretty. Note ice anvil, but little rain has fallen out yet. Watch out below, its a comin'! — 10:25 AM. Oh, so pretty. Note ice anvil, but little rain has fallen out yet. Watch out below, its a comin’!

10:33 AM. Rain on mountains getting closer to Catalina... — 10:33 AM. Rain on mountains getting closer to Catalina…

10:39 AM. Load has dropped! — 10:39 AM. Load has dropped, though mainly from the turret on the left shown in that 10:25 AM shot.

1:17 PM. Storms to the left of me, storms to the right, stuck in the middle again.

1:46 PM. Storms to the left of me, storms to the right, stuck in the middle again. This is a pretty clever shot where it looks like I'm driving and on my way to James Kreig Park and just kind of holding the camera any which way. — 1:46 PM. Storms to the left of me, storms to the right, stuck in the middle again. This is a pretty clever shot where it looks like I’m driving and on my way to James Kreig Park and just kind of holding the camera any which way. This storm is toward the Tucson Mountains.

1:59 PM. AFter arriving at James Kreig Park, I see this massive storm over the Torts. Storms on the left of me, storms on the right, stuck in the middle again! Thunder was continuous at this point. — 1:59 PM. After arriving at James Kreig Park, I see this massive storm over the Torts. Storms on the left of me, storms on the right, stuck in the middle again! Thunder was continuous at this point.

5:13 PM. After a couple of hours of BP, and a few sprinkles, or RW--, the s — 5:13 PM. After a couple of hours of BP, and a few sprinkles, or RW–, the sky went dull as the convective roots died and left all this heavy, ice debris cloud (Altostratus opacus cumulonimbogenitus, of course, technophiles). Thought the interesting part of the day was over. Clueless again! See below.

6:56 PM. Self portrait. — 6:56 PM. Self portrait in interesting lighting. Kind of goes along with a tendency of megalomania sometimes seen here.

6:58 PM. Not a self-portrait, but rather a celebration of lighting.

7:03 PM. Words aren't enough. — 7:03 PM. Words aren’t enough.

The End.

The Time of the Ant; and Catalina Cumulus to remember

One of nature’s true miracles, one that we Catalinans look forward to every summer, is the “Time of the Ant.” After the first substantial rains, ants burst forth from the ground like little angels with wings, forming tall columns of swirling, joyful creatures that hover above a favorite place above the ground for an hour or two each morning, in acts of conjugation. Sadly, the male participant dies after his reproductive act, while the female and new queen, goes happily off to try and start a new colony, one that may bring us joy in the summers ahead. Its really quite something.

Many nature lovers rush to Arizona from non-flying ant climes to see this remarkable event, which may only last a day or two following the rains. The first episode usually contains the greatest masses of flying ants, and so many come to Arizona at the beginning of July so that they do not miss the “festivities.”

Swarms in the first emergence of the flying ants in summer may number in the tens of thousands, seemingly in a swirling mass of chaos to us. But to them, it is EVERYTHING that they have dreamed of; oh, to fly! Imagine YOU wake up one morning with wings (!), and then had the urge to fly out the door and have sex somewhere, like over someone’s carport! Of course, many would consider this untoward behavior, but I was just trying to get you inside the mind of a flying ant on their wonderful day of emergence, maybe see things in a different light.

After the big rain of the day before, 1.09 inches here, I was ready for them!

I was lucky enough to capture some of the fun-loving, mischievous little creatures yesterday, with some Altocumulus clouds in the background for a good, contrasting backdrop. For your amusement and pleasure, these wonderful shots:

7:05 PM. This astounding cloudy metaphor of the emergence of the flying ant. Was it a coincidence? Or? — 7:05 PM. This astounding cloudy metaphor of the emergence of the flying ant yesterday evening. “Hail the new insect overlords!”–Kent Brockman, in Deep Space Homer.

Yesterday’s clouds

Did good up around Oracle Ridge, which got a remarkable 2.64 inches in a couple of hours late yesterday afternoon and evening. Cloud details below…. Not much rain elsewhere since the clouds kept redeveloping in the same area.

3:59 PM. After being inactive all day, the Catalinas began to spawn some heavy Cumulus clouds (congestus here), but for a hour or so before this time, they were the essence of "big hat, no cattle" (no rain). But then, blammo, the exploded upward just about this time. — 3:59 PM. After being inactive all day, the Catalinas began to spawn some heavy Cumulus clouds (congestus here), but for a hour or so before this time, they were the essence of “big hat, no cattle” (no rain). But then, blammo, they erupted like a swarm of flying ants out of the ground, reached up to the ice forming level and far beyond just about this time. Here, looking toward the Charouleau Gap. This was to be a monument outpouring, with 2.64 inches at Oracle Ridge, south of Oracle over the next three hours. 1.77 inches fell in ONE hour.

4:09 PM. The upward explosion is now underway, and whole cloud scene is changing rapidly, and the first glaciating top can be seen on the left side.

4:35 PM. New turrets shot up and kept glaciating over pretty much the same spot. Not a lot of thunder though, so tops weren't exceptionally high. — 4:35 PM. New turrets shot up and kept glaciating over pretty much the same spot. Not a lot of thunder though, so tops weren’t exceptionally high.

5:06 PM. The stream goes on, pretty much dumping in the same spot. It was about this time that the Oracle Ridge ALERT gauge had reported 1.77 inches in one hour, but almost nowhere else up there was getting any rain.

6:13 PM. Astounding, after the Oracle complex died away just after 5 PM, it seemed like that was it for the day. Then emerging from the house, I see this! I could not believe it, and it was so pretty in the late sun. But, surely it couldn’t do much. And look, too, how low the cloud bases are, topping Sam Ridge, meaning the moisture regime is still wet and tropical.

6:22 PM. Just 9 minutes later, the tops are surging upward. Can they really glaciate and cause another round of precip on the north side of the Catalinas? Didn’t seem possible, considering the time of day.

7:15 PM. This pastel beauty. A haze layer last evening through which the sun shone helped tint the clouds that yellowish orange, and later, as here, helped amplify the pink hues. Still, it was an unforgettable evening.

7:25 PM. The day ended with some of the most memorable scenes I have experienced here, those pastel colors on those cloud tops. And once again it was raining on the Oracle Ridge area.

The End

Good muddy morning, Mr. and Mrs. Catalina!

Well, it finally happened, we got shafted royally (as CM likes to say, referring to getting rain shafted) yesterday afternoon with a badly needed 1.09 inches here in Sutherland Heights. More than 2 inches fell nearby, too, such as near the intersection of Hwy 77 and 79! The highlight of the storm was, of course, all of those several close lightning strikes between 2 and 3 PM yesterday. If you weren’t out watching them, here’s one for you, one that popped Lago del Oro. (Mr. Cloud Maven person reminds his reader that during lightning, do not stand outside by a tree outside as here. Hmmmph, a new thought…. Maybe that’s where the expression, “Death warmed over” comes from, a person unlucky enough to have been struck by lightning…and then somebody finds him right away!

2:06 PM. Looking northwest; a literal highlight of the day.

6:17 AM. The remarkable site of a Sc lenticularis stack over Catalina due to strong easterly winds up there. This is more like a scene from the front range of the Rockies in wintertime. It hovered up there in place for a couple of hours before withering. One almost started looking for infamous “rotor cloud”, filled with severe turbulence. You can see this remarkable cloud for summer and the things it did, courtesy of the U of AZ time lapse film for yesterday, a real keeper! Still have that lenticular cloud over and downwind of Ms. Lemmon today. Interesting.

6:23 AM. After a few drops, a little rainbow was seen off to the NW. Quite nice.

7:56 AM. Of concern after awhile is whether we might have a gloomy, but dry Seattle-style day, or maybe light steady rains as a disturbance moved toward us, or would that disturbance be potent enough to generate deep storms sans heating? For those who live here in the summer, we know that the sun is potent enought, even with dense clouds, especially ones that are NOT compose of ice crystals, the vaporize pretty heavy overcasts. This would be a good thing, because a little heating goes a long way when you have deep, and low based moisture as we had yesterday. The clouds shown here are composed of droplets, not ice crystals, but, of course, I have just now insulted your Cloud Maven Junior intelligence because you can see the sharpness of the cloud features, and more importantly there is no virga, a site that would mean there was ice inside the clouds, ice that would grow into major snowflakes, melt and fall out as rain. So, there is hope here, to continue this novella, for a "burn off" in spite of the heavy, and dark looking clouds because its early in the morning still and they probably have higher concentrations of droplets in them and that in turn cause more of the sun's light to be reflected off'n the top. — 7:56 AM. (Caution-long, sleep-inducing caption ahead. If you’re driving you’ll want to pull off the road.) Of concern after awhile is whether we might have a gloomy, but dry Seattle-type spring day, or maybe only light steady rains amounting to only a few hundredths or tenths as a disturbance moved toward us. Or, would that disturbance be potent enough to generate deep storms sans heating? For those who live here in the summer, we know that the sun is potent enough, even with dense clouds, especially ones that are NOT composed of ice crystals, to vaporize pretty heavy overcasts. This would be a good thing, because a little heating goes a long way when you have deep, and low based moisture as we had yesterday. Doesn’t have to get that hot. The clouds shown here are composed of droplets, not ice crystals, but, of course, I have just now insulted your Cloud Maven Junior cloud intelligence because you can see the sharpness and detail of the tiniest cloud features; they are not “blurry-looking as ice clouds would be, and more importantly there is no virga, a site that would mean there was ice inside the clouds, ice that would grow into major snowflakes, melt and fall out as rain. So, there is hope here in this sighting of droplet clouds, to continue this novella, for a “burn off” in spite of the heavy, and dark looking clouds because its early in the morning still and they probably have higher concentrations of droplets in them and that in turn cause more of the sun’s light to be reflected off’n the top, and that’s why they look so dark, a darkness that has been enhanced that bit by a little trick of photography called, “underexposing.” Oh, the cloud type? Stratocumulus stratiformis (the second descriptor because there’s so much of it.)

9:46 AM. Within only an hour or two, the thought of a heavily overcast all day could be jettisoned as the normal mid-morning to mid-day thinning occurred. But, now, would the storms be clustered enough to hit Catalina, or would they end up being too scattered as in the day before where big dumps missed us? It was, however, now in the bag, that huge clouds would rise up later in the day due to some heating. Note Ac lenticular slivers.

1:47 PM. While doubts arose as the sky filled in again with dark, lackluster Cumulus and Stratocumulus clouds over Catalina, powerful storms were ripping across Tucson and points S leading one to believe that there was a chance these clouds would pile higher until reaching the ice-forming level in spite of moderate temperatures. Sure enough, one of the Great Moments in clouddom, is catching those first strands of rain.graupel that fall from such a cloud. Really, its like seeing a marbled murrelet streaking in from the coast in a redwood forest, its that rare (see Rare Bird, Marie Mudd Ruth, award winning author, in keeping with a mud theme here today. — 1:47 PM. While doubts arose as the sky filled in again with dark, lackluster Cumulus and Stratocumulus clouds over Catalina, powerful storms were ripping across Tucson and points S leading one to believe that there was a chance these clouds would pile higher until reaching the ice-forming level in spite of moderate temperatures. Sure enough, one of the Great Moments in clouddom, is catching those first strands of rain/graupel that fall from such a cloud, as here. Really, its like seeing a marbled murrelet streaking in from the coast whilst in a redwood forest, its that rare (see Rare Bird, Marie Mudd Ruth, award winning author and friend who likes clouds a lot, in keeping with a “mud” theme here today. Remember, too, you only got a couple of minutes to catch this stage as the large drops and soft fall out at about 15-20 mph.

1:59 PM. Moving rapidly westward, unloads west of Saddlebrooke. Worried here, since it missed. — 1:59 PM. Moving rapidly westward, unloads west of Saddlebrooke. Worried here since it missed.

2:00 PM. More rain and thunder appeared upwind on the Catalinas leading to renewed hope. In fact, the whole sky at this point seemed to be turning into one huge Cumulonimbus. It was great!

3:27 PM. An inch had fallen and it looked like we were going have a lake side property. Next time will get kayak out! Sometimes toads erupt from the earth when this happens, but I guess they like it darker than this.

4:01 PM. One of the prettiest sites after our major rains is this line of Stratus fractus clouds that cuddle up against Samaniego Ridge. Yesterday was no exception, and it was another memorable site of the day.

The weather ahead

Well, drying. Unfortunately we’re in for another long dry spell likely beginning after today. Hoping we can squeeze out one more day with rain this afternoon. Today’s storms will move from an unusual summertime direction from the south-southwest and southwest, so you;ll want to be watching toward the Tucson Mountains to Twin Peaks for stuff that might come in in the afternoon, more of a fall pattern as the winds are shifting aloft today to from the SW. The Catalinas get active with Cu and Cumulonimbus piling up by late morning, but they drift toward the north and not over us as they did yesterday, all this from the U of AZ model run from 11 PM AST last night.

Interesting optics yesterday; substantial rains just ahead

Pretty boring lately…. No motivation here, even after caffeinating royally every morning. Have had some pro work to work on, too, like reviewing a manuscript for a journal–loosely translated, work that’s largely comprised of “finding fault in the work of others,” which I am pretty good at, to be a little immodest. Due this weekend, too…

11 PM U of AZ mod has late afternoon and evening rains in Catalina! Yay. Looks pretty wet, too, through the middle of next week, some lucky places (Catalina/Oro Valley) might get 1-3 inches during that time I suspect. (Neck out pretty far here.)

But…another longish dry spell takes hold after that. Seems to be the character of our summer; a couple good, wet days, then a long dry spell.

Still there were some great cloud sights yesterday, and I wanted to share them with my reader, wherever you are.

Down at second from the bottom is the rare sun pillar, and the last photo, a kind of an odd parhelia (sun dog) since the clouds were mainly Altocumulus ones in which it was occurring and it was darn bright.

Parhelia normally occur in icy Altostratus clouds. I would guess that this one might have been caused by ice crystals produced by an aircraft that passed through that Ac layer toward the horizon, right.

The End, back to work….

Yesterday’s rosy rain; El Nino fading

Here are some 24 h totals from the Pima County ALERT gauges for hereabouts, ending at 3:30 AM:

Catalina Area
    1010     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.71      Golder Ranch                 Horseshoe Bend Road in Saddlebrooke
    1020     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.08      Oracle Ranger Stati          approximately 0.5 mile southwest of Oracle
    1040     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.59      Dodge Tank                   Edwin Road 1.3 miles east of Lago Del Oro Parkway
    1050     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.04         0.94      Cherry Spring                approximately 1.5 miles west of Charouleau Gap
    1060     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.04         0.31      Pig Spring                   approximately 1.1 miles northeast of Charouleau Gap
    1070     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.04      Cargodera Canyon             northeast corner of Catalina State Park
    1080     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         1.14      CDO @ Rancho Solano          Cañada Del Oro Wash northeast of Saddlebrooke
    1100     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.83      CDO @ Golder Rd              Cañada Del Oro Wash at Golder Ranch Road

Santa Catalina Mountains
    1030     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.12      Oracle Ridge                 Oracle Ridge, approximately 1.5 miles north of Rice Peak
    1090     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.16         1.38      Mt. Lemmon                   Mount Lemmon
    1110     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.16      CDO @ Coronado Camp          Cañada Del Oro Wash 0.3 miles south of Coronado Camp
    1130     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.39      Samaniego Peak               Samaniego Peak on Samaniego Ridge
    1140     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.51      Dan Saddle                   Dan Saddle on Oracle Ridge
    2150     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.04         0.28      White Tail                   Catalina Highway 0.8 miles west of Palisade Ranger Station
    2280     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.63      Green Mountain               Green Mountain
    2290     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.08         0.31      Marshall Gulch               Sabino Creek 0.6 miles south southeast of Marshall Gulch

Most of the day was pretty quiet. I gave up on any rain just before it started raining. And then it rained some more. Total here in Sutherland Heights was 0.74 inches in last evening’s rain. Had a close LTG strike that knocked out the personal weather station for a few minutes. Sorry about that. I suspect you were pretty upset since it happened when the rain was piling up and you were likely watching my weather station reports online, so it was kind of like your TEEVEE failing when a last minute pass is thrown toward the end zone, but the TEEVEE blacks out before the pass lands and you don’t know how the game ended. Again, my apologies for that interruption.

Your late afternoon and evening cloud day, one that ended up with “rosy rain” (not a female singer from Seattle, but it would be a good name for one):

5:51 PM. Nice lighting on the mountains, but definitely no chance of rain.

DSC_0155-1 — 6:12 PM. Yep, nothin’ upwind toward the NE and beyond Charouleau Gap. Certainly, there will be no rain this evening.

6:47 PM. Heard some thunder whilst looking at the Cat Mountains, though it seemed impossible. Must have been a jet…. Went over to look toward Saddlebrook, and my word, this! Where the HECK did that come from? Not long after this those outflow winds struck, blasting away at 25-35 mph from the NNE.

7:09 PM. Nice base forming toward house due to those outflowing winds that pushed the air upward around the Saddlebrook cell. But will it get deep enough to form ice and rain on us? The overall situation was not so great since you may have noticed that prior to the cell appearing suddenly, there were no Cumulus clouds over the lower terrain away from the mountains, never a good sign for anything to propagate out away from them. But, they did!

7:13 PM. A new rainshaft started falling out of one side of that dark base, indicating its top had sprouted upward and reached way beyond the -10 C level up there! Still, this one was a near miss, drenching Oro Valley and sideswiping Sutherland Heights.

7:19 PM. Rosy rain. Looking again toward Saddlebrook, new cells kept forming to the north-north east and eventually one passed over Sutherland Heights with drenching rain, visibility briefly down to a few hundred yards, wind rushing out of the N. It was a fantastic moment after all the dry days that had preceded this.

El Nino Update

In some dismal news brought to my attention by a friend and El Nino expert with NOAA, Monterrey, our much looked forward to El Nino for next winter, likely to be accompanied by substantial rains here, one that was in development over the past few months, is starting to…..fade!

Check out this graphic for July 31, 2014, and note the awful “blue” areas (below normal temperatures) that have started to permeate the red and yellow above normal sea surface temperature band from Peru to south of Hawaii along the Equator.

Compare this latest map above to the one just over a month ago (!), with all the great red and yellow across the eastern Pacific:

June 30, 2014 sea surface temperature anomaly map, the good one.

Feeling a little depressed now… Not sure once fading, an El Nino can make a come back. Let’s just hope our early August rains can revive some of our desert vegetation. As you know, we have a couple of days of great chances to get shafted again, rain shafted, that is.

In the meantime, here’s fascinating account of a sudden warming water off the central California coast recently that you might enjoy from this friend and El Nino expert. You might not have to wear a wet suit to surf The Mavericks, its so warm!

On the positive side, my friend doesn’t feel that the Washington Huskies fubbal team will have a losing season this year, as I do; you know, new coach, new system, new QB, at Washington this year, and this almost always means a tough year. So, I guess we can close out today with that positive note.

The End.

Much adieu about nothing (i.e., no rain)

There are a lot of photos here of yesterday’s clouds, considering it was a day with no rain. Oh, well, pretty normal for a cloud-centric person where the least cloud minutiae is somehow “interesting.”

8:13 AM. Very gratifying and a little surprising to see the first tiny Cu spring up so early in the morning off'n Lemmon. But, would it be only shallow moisture? — 8:13 AM. Very gratifying and a little surprising to see the first tiny Cu spring up so early in the morning off’n Lemmon. But, would it be only shallow moisture?

10:13 AM. Also a promising sign, a thin turret rising out of a blob of small Cu. Mr. Cloud Maven Person apologizes in advance if this shot is somehow offensive. — 10:13 AM. Also a promising sign, a thin turret rising out of a blob of small Cu. Mr. Cloud Maven Person apologizes in advance if this shot is somehow offensive by suggesting a middle finger.

10:52 AM. Clouds mass above Ms. Lemmon, BUT, can they reach the ice-forming level where the temperature is as low as -10 C (14 F) or lower so that they can rain? I'm thinking it'll be close, but was not real hopeful. — 10:52 AM. Clouds mass above Ms. Lemmon, BUT, can they reach the ice-forming level where the temperature is as low as -10 C (14 F) or lower so that they can rain? I’m thinking it’ll be close, but was not real hopeful.

11:19 AM. Amazing! On this expected to be dry day, Ms. Lemmon and her environs have created a Cumulonimbus cloud! Nowhere within a hundred miles was there another cloud like this!

11:19 AM. Zoom of the icy "calvus" top in the middle (its not very fibrous yet, but is clearly loaded with ice, unlike the crinkly turret at left. Sometimes that "calvus" look is compared with the look of "cotton candy." You remember, cotton candy don't you? — 11:19 AM. Zoom of the icy “calvus” top in the middle (its not very fibrous yet, but is clearly loaded with ice, unlike the crinkly turret at left. Sometimes that “calvus” look is compared with the look of “cotton candy.” Within about 10 s, there was a rumble of thunder! You remember, cotton candy don’t you?

12:56 PM. Pretty clear here that the day was done as far as Cumulonimbus clouds are concerned as the drier air moving in the from the west took it toll, and well as the cooling of the mountains by the prior thunderstorm. Or was it done? CM thought so, but maybe I shouldn't tell you that, causing you to lose confidence. — 12:56 PM. Pretty obvious here that the day was done as far as Cumulonimbus clouds over the Cat Mountains are concerned as the drier air moving in the from the west began to take its toll, as well as the cooling of the mountains by the prior thunderstorm. Or was it done? CM thought so, but maybe I shouldn’t tell you that, causing you to lose confidence.

1:50 PM. A truly shocking sight to CM. The Cumulonimbus clouds were able to start up again!

2:04 PM. Mr. Cloud Maven Person enjoys showing you how fast cloud tops can glaciate, and this was a nice case. — 2:04 PM. Mr. Cloud Maven Person enjoys showing you how fast cloud tops can glaciate, and this was a nice case (Cb calvus stage here).

5:23 PM. Well, it was all over by this time, no more Cbs, but here's a Cumulus mediocris showing crepuscular rays (ray features due to high aerosol content of the air). — 5:23 PM. Well, it was all over by this time, no more Cbs, but here’s a Cumulus mediocris showing crepuscular rays (ray features due to high aerosol loading of the air).

7:32 PM. Nice pastel colored Cirrus spissatus cumulonimbogenitus (I couldn't stop with just "Cirrus", I had to ruin it with a long unpronounceable part. Oh, well, that's what cloud-maven person does. — 7:32 PM. Nice pastel-colored Cirrus spissatus cumulonimbogenitus (I couldn’t stop with just “Cirrus”, I had to ruin it with a long unpronounceable part. Oh, well, that’s what cloud-maven person does.

Next and maybe last rain of the summer (kidding only a little) looks to be around August 3rd still. Flow aloft looking awfully grim overall for summer rain in Catalina mod longer term predictions… This may be the worst thing I have ever said to a desert people during their “wet” season. Let’s hope we have about 5 inches on August 3rd or so!

Drought dentin’ rains fall on parts of Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas during the past 7 days!

This just in:

Check the starting conditions on the US Drought Monitor Map below for July 22nd. Then look at the next map showing the 7-day radar-derived rain totals (from WSI Intellicast), ending at 5 AM AST today that hit those red and brown areas of Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas.

What a great 7 days it has been, even if us here in Catalinaland haven’t been as fortunate.

The End.

Tall slender clouds stay isolated and lonely

Didn’t group together as hoped, though a wind shift aloft did happen last evening (from SSE to SSW, seen here). But there was nothing with it. Too dry I guess, too stable, viz., air locked into place near the ground. Boohoo. When the venerable U of AZ model outputs came out later yesterday morning finally, they knew that virtually nothing was going to happen beyond isolated thunderheads yesterday during the day. Well, you can’t wait that long, until late morning; you have to go with your gut sometimes, even if it might be wrong.

Some photos from our quiet day:

9:34. Cumulus began massing over Ms. Lemmon 3 h earlier than the prior day, a good sign for more action. — 9:34. Cumulus began massing over Ms. Lemmon 3 h earlier than the prior day, a good sign for much more action than the prior day, which had none.

11:58 AM. A Cumulonimbus was in progress! Zoomed view to appear larger than it really was. But, it did rain over there. Very hopeful at this point since large clouds were shooting upward S-W, too. — 11:58 AM. A Cumulonimbus was in progress (note frizzy, icy top at left)! View zoomed here to make cloud appear larger than it really was. But, ignoring that trickery, it did rain over there underneath it.. Was very hopeful at this point since large clouds were shooting upward S-W, too (see below).

12:19 PM. Cumulonimbus and Cumulus congestus pock the SW-W horizon. Maybe they'll form a line as that upper level windshift approaches.... — 12:19 PM. Cumulonimbus and Cumulus congestus pock the SW-W horizon. Maybe they’ll form a line as that upper level windshift approaches….

4:19 PM. Yes, finally, it appears that a line of Cumulonimbus and heavy Cumulus clouds are organizing upwind as I drove downhill on Oracle Road. — 4:19 PM. Yes, finally, it appears that a line of Cumulonimbus and heavy Cumulus clouds are organizing upwind as I drove steeply downhill on Oracle Road.

Help me! I'm drying up! — 4:42 PM. But the clouds were also speaking to me, as they often do, sending a different message: “Help me! I’m drying up! Dry air is right behind me.” So, too much dry air, no clustering factor, in fact, and we were left with isolated, though pretty clouds at sunset (see below).

7:22 PM. Shadow from a distant, lonely Cumulonimbus clouds provides a shady relief for a patch of Cirrus. Very dramatic scene, even if it was now obvious that the thought of a line of clouds moving in with rain was a highly bogus thought. — 7:22 PM. Shadow from a distant, lonely Cumulonimbus clouds provides a shady relief for a patch of Cirrus. Very dramatic scene, even if it was now obvious that the thought of a line of clouds moving in with rain was highly bogus. HOWEVER, an amazing amount of instability (as measured by CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) went overhead quietly last night (over “1900”) as the wind shift aloft approached; had it happened during the daytime, I think we might have had something to talk about. Hardly goes over “1900” in the daytime! Darn. You’ll know that something changed when you see the anvils go off toward the east, and not the west as happened yesterday.

Today’s clouds

Enough water in the air yet for isolated Cu and a Cb, probably much like yesterday. U of AZ mod sees a little afternoon rain in the Catalinas. But, really nothing good in sight now with the exception of around August 3rd. Poor desert. The Canadian model has a Big Rain Day (BRD) on August 3rd as remnant tropical storm moves up the Baja coast and the US model, too, has rain chances picking up then for just a day or two (only). This is getting to be a hard summer.

Lightning shows up, but not the rain

Another “awesome” display of lightning flashed over the Cat Mountains east of Catalina early last evening, accompanied by gusty northerly winds, but that fierce thunderstorm couldn’t make it over those mountains, but rather died on the way. Only sprinkles occurred here, giving us yet another “trace” of rain day. Kind of discouraging after the prior night’s nice little rain of 0.18 inches, one that also occurred after night fall. But as we know, weather never repeats itself exactly.

———-Yesterday’s major cloud mystery———–

Many of you, I am sure noticed the remarkable cloud scene below, perhaps as you came out of the house, or during your lunch hour, and likely puzzled over it the rest of the day. I, too, wondered how that little dot of cloud got so separated from its early Mt. Lemmon spawning grounds and brothers and sisters hovering over the mountain, trying to grow up. Notice that it seems like a puff of cloud, ragged on the bottom, a little rounder on the top. Could it be the top of a “smokestack” Cumulus that somehow we missed, whose connecting parts to Mt. Lemmon have evaporated? Its an important question that we shall try to answer.

12:51 PM. Cumulus humilis and fractus begin gathering over Mt. Lemmon. Recall, btw, this scene began a little after 8 AM on the thundery day before, for perspective--we're late, not a good sign. But what in the world is that little cloud dot to the left and middle of the photo? — 12:51 PM. Cumulus humilis and fractus begin gathering over Mt. Lemmon. Recall, btw, that this kind of cloud scene began a little after 8 AM on the thundery day before, for perspective–we’re late here, not a good sign of active rain day.)

To solve this mystery, Mr. (he’s not a doctor, nor does he have an advanced degree of any kind!) Cloud Maven Person went to the U of Arizona Department of Atmospheric Meteorology and looked at yesterday’s cloud movie. These are top rated movies, and, if you’ve ever looked at them, you can understand why clouds and what the weather does can be hard to predict; locations of storms missed, etc. No computer model can see all the remarkable little cloud wiggles, sudden comings and goings, that you see in these movies, thus introducing slight errors that tend to degrade those model predictions over time. And lots of the time, the locations of the clouds at the outset of the model run is even markedly off! Below, yesterday’s complex cloud movie linked for you in the word, “Movie”:

Movie

You will barely be able to read the time of the day in the lower left hand corner, which adds further complexity in solving this problem, but if you look closely you will see that a minute or two BEFORE the shot above at 12:51 PM, and slender tower rose up from Ms. Lemmon, its trunk evaporating almost immediately, but the last thing to evaporate was the little puff above that sped westward toward Samaniego Ridge.

In conclusion, I think we have solved yesterday’s cloud mystery.

——————-end of cloud mystery module——————–

That such a cloud could shoot up and out from Mt. Lemmon like this one did was a sign that there was great environment for much larger clouds, at least in the fall of the temperature with height (lapse rate), but that more humidity was needed to keep them from evaporating as they tried to grow. It wasn’t long before the hopeful sign of a Cumulonimbus calvus (anvil not formed yet) appeared beyond the Catalina Mountains, and the chance of evening rains, as the models had predicted, began to look better.

2:05 PM. Cumulonimbus calvus top makes its appearance, likely 70 miles or more away. — 2:05 PM. Cumulonimbus calvus top makes its appearance to the SE, likely 70 miles or more, and hours away.

5:33 PM. Threatening clouds and thunderheads were now moving into the Oracle/Mammoth areas, and the chances of a significant rain here were growing by the minute as major radar echoes approached from the east. I remember thinking how how happy I was that such a dreadful Cumulus day over the Catalinas was now going to be reversed by this onslaught of storms as the U of AZ model had predicted.

7:05 PM. Thus far, only "debris" clouds from the thunderstorms upwind had crossed the Catalinas, spreading westward toward the setting sun. But those dark clouds did provide the contrast as the setting sun lit up the Catalinas for this great scene. — 7:05 PM. Thus far, only “debris” clouds from the thunderstorms upwind had crossed the Catalinas, spreading westward toward the setting sun. But those dark clouds did provide the contrast as the setting sun lit up the Catalinas for this great scene.

7:22 PM. Multiple layers of clouds provide multiple sunset colors.

7:32 PM. That extra brightness in the center of the photo, if you noticed it, is called a sun pillar. Its due to a fall of plate-like, hexagonal ice crystals that fall face down that allow the sun's light to be reflected toward us. — 7:32 PM. That extra brightness in the center of the photo, if you noticed it, is called a “sun pillar”. Its due to a fall of plate-like, hexagonal ice crystals that fall face down and that enhances the reflected toward us. The sun set exactly below this bright spot. For a bit more on sun pillars, go here.

What seems to be ahead…..

The U of AZ mod hasn’t been updated as of this hour….so, being in a hurry, we’ll do an “SOP” forecast (you have to see Bob for a good one. I like Bob, too) but we have plenty of lower level humidity, and there appears to be a weak upper trough passing over us today, and that “should” help to collect storms into larger masses instead of just isolated ones. Oops, let me not forget our TUS NWS computer forecast for the Catalina area, too.

So, today might be the last day for a reasonably good chance of a major rain here in Catalina. After today, and for the next two weeks, the circulation pattern is not so great for summer storms, according to the NOAA spaghetti factory plots, seen here.

It seems more and more like we’re doomed to a drier than normal summer, darn it. (Missed those first great storms, too, that started our summer rain season.)

That’s about it for my cloud world. Camera will be ready for the black shafts of summer today!

Creamy mammatus precedes overnight thunderation

Thin Cirrostratus overspread the sky at dinner time from the east, thickening into Altostratus cumulonimbogenitus mammatus (you can breath now), toward the Catalina Mountains and in the direction of Oracle. What a gorgeous sight this was!

While the storms that spawned this icy blob were mostly dead by this time, undercutting Altocumulus castellanus below the mammatus formation (barely visible in the photo below) gave hope that the day was not done as far as rain was concerned. And it wasn’t.

Round about midnight, the wind and one of the more intense lightning shows of the summer crept over the Catalinas and into Catalina, sparks flying. Strikes too close for CM to feel comfortable on the front porch in metal lawn furniture.

Sutherland Heights was watered with 0.18 inches, an OK amount, enough to revive some of the wilting desert weeds of summer. The Cat Mountains, not surprisingly, got the most. Ms. Sara Lemmon got 1.02 inches, Sam Peak, 0.83 inches. Hope they weren’t having an astronomy show at the Sky Center!

You can see the list of Pima County gauges here. LTGICCCCG¹ still out there to the distant SSW at this hour, and major rains are still in progress in western Arizona, all good. (Those low lying areas of western Arizona such as along the Colorado River, have a “bi-modal” peak frequency of late evening and early morning rains, btw. Not much happens in the middle of the day to mid-afternoon out there.)

No clouds during the day yesterday, even over Mt. Lemmon, was a surprise, and is rare in my seventh summer here, and is a testimony to how dry the air was aloft over us even with some humidity near the surface. Things quickly changed during the night, and this morning, we’ve got it all, significant humidity at the ground all the way up to Cirrus levels. Perhaps due to the low starting temperatures associated with the rains in the area, the U of AZ mod doesn’t think Cumulonimbus clouds will form over our mountains until late afternoon into the evening hours.

In any case, should be a great day visually; lots going on. Thinning clouds this morning, then the rise of the Cumulus, and we hope, as the mod projects, another blast of rain in the evening and early nighttime hours.

6:00 AM. In case you missed it just now, this beauty.

The Weather WAY ahead

The NOAA spaghetti factory still is not showing patterns that are fruitful for generous rains overall in the next 15 days or so. So, anything we get should be considered quite a blessing during this time. Another giant trough is going to affect the East Coast and Midwest (the last one, a couple of weeks ago, brought the coldest July day in the 140 year history of Memphis records where for the first time the high temperature did not reach 70 F in July! Wow.) Those east of the Rockies may well wonder in the times ahead, what happened to summer? Of course, those cool temperatures might well be welcomed in late July and August, but the circulation pattern that brings them is also not so great for summer rains here. Oh, well, hoping for the best.

Sincerely, your CM.

——————–
¹Weather text for “Lightning in the cloud, cloud-to-cloud, and cloud-to-ground.” A weather report amended with this comment, LTGICCCCG, was always one of the most exciting that you could see reported from a station, especially if you lived in lightning-deprived areas like California and Washington as did CM.