Tall slender clouds stay isolated and lonely

Didn’t group together as hoped, though a wind shift aloft did happen last evening (from SSE to SSW, seen here).  But there was nothing with it.   Too dry I guess, too stable, viz., air locked into place near the ground.  Boohoo.   When the venerable U of AZ model outputs came out later yesterday morning finally, they knew that virtually nothing was going to happen beyond isolated thunderheads yesterday during the day.  Well, you can’t wait that long, until late morning; you have to go with your gut sometimes, even if it might be wrong.

Some photos from our quiet day:

9:34. Cumulus began massing over Ms. Lemmon 3 h earlier than the prior day, a good sign for more action.
9:34. Cumulus began massing over Ms. Lemmon 3 h earlier than the prior day, a good sign for much more action than the prior day, which had none.
11:58 AM. A Cumulonimbus was in progress! Zoomed view to appear larger than it really was. But, it did rain over there. Very hopeful at this point since large clouds were shooting upward S-W, too.
11:58 AM. A Cumulonimbus was in progress (note frizzy, icy top at left)! View zoomed here to make cloud appear larger than it really was.  But, ignoring that trickery, it did rain over there underneath it.. Was very hopeful at this point since large clouds were shooting upward S-W, too (see below).
12:19 PM. Cumulonimbus and Cumulus congestus pock the SW-W horizon. Maybe they'll form a line as that upper level windshift approaches....
12:19 PM. Cumulonimbus and Cumulus congestus pock the SW-W horizon. Maybe they’ll form a line as that upper level windshift approaches….
4:19 PM. Yes, finally, it appears that a line of Cumulonimbus and heavy Cumulus clouds are organizing upwind as I drove downhill on Oracle Road.
4:19 PM. Yes, finally, it appears that a line of Cumulonimbus and heavy Cumulus clouds are organizing upwind as I drove steeply downhill on Oracle Road.
Help me! I'm drying up!
4:42 PM. But the clouds were also speaking to me, as they often do, sending a different message: “Help me! I’m drying up! Dry air is right behind me.” So, too much dry air, no clustering factor, in fact, and we were left with isolated, though pretty clouds at sunset (see below).
7:22 PM. Shadow from a distant, lonely Cumulonimbus clouds provides a shady relief for a patch of Cirrus. Very dramatic scene, even if it was now obvious that the thought of a line of clouds moving in with rain was a highly bogus thought.
7:22 PM. Shadow from a distant, lonely Cumulonimbus clouds provides a shady relief for a patch of Cirrus. Very dramatic scene, even if it was now obvious that the thought of a line of clouds moving in with rain was highly bogus.  HOWEVER, an amazing amount of instability (as measured by CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) went overhead quietly last night (over “1900”) as the wind shift aloft approached; had it happened during the daytime, I think we might have had something to talk about.  Hardly goes over “1900” in the daytime!  Darn.  You’ll know that something changed when you see the anvils go off toward the east, and not the west as happened yesterday.

 

Today’s clouds

Enough water in the air yet for isolated Cu and a Cb, probably much like yesterday. U of AZ mod sees a little afternoon rain in the Catalinas.  But, really nothing good in sight now with the exception of around August 3rd.  Poor desert.  The Canadian model has a Big Rain Day (BRD) on August 3rd as remnant tropical storm moves up the Baja coast and the US model, too, has rain chances picking up then for just a day or two (only).  This is getting to be a hard summer.

By Art Rangno

Retiree from a group specializing in airborne measurements of clouds and aerosols at the University of Washington (Cloud and Aerosol Research Group). The projects in which I participated were in many countries; from the Arctic to Brazil, from the Marshall Islands to South Africa.