Screaming this title here…
WHAT a come-through, drought-denting rain that was yesterday to interrupt our Oct 19 through Dec 4 dry spell! Take that, rainless November, you disappoint you!
No one expected so much, not even our best models. In fact, the great U of AZ mod, if you can remember as far back as yesterday at this time and that you ALSO stopped in here, it had a measly 0.10 to 0.25 inches here, with just 0.50 and 1 inch prediction for the Catalinas–have to look real hard at yesterday’s precip map. Usually these models overpredict the precip some, too.
Here’s your Pima County ALERT gauge 24 h totals as of 2:30 PM yesterday , though the rain fell mostly in the 12 h ending at this time1:
|1010||0||0||0.12||0.47||0.83||Golder Ranch||Horseshoe Bend Rd in Saddlebrooke|
|1020||0||0||0.35||0.79||1.81||Oracle Ranger Stati||approximately 0.5 mi SW of Oracle|
|1040||0||0||0.28||0.75||1.10||Dodge Tank||Edwin Rd 1.3 mi E of Lago Del Oro Parkway|
|1050||0||0||0.28||0.67||1.10||Cherry Spring||approximately 1.5 mi W of Charouleau Gap|
|1060||0||0.04||0.55||1.06||1.77||Pig Spring||approximately 1.1 mi NE of Charouleau Gap|
|1070||0||0||0.31||0.75||1.10||Cargodera Canyon||NE corner of Catalina State Park|
|1080||0||0.04||0.28||0.75||1.22||CDO @ Rancho Solano||Cañada Del Oro Wash NE of Saddlebrooke|
|1100||0||0||0.16||0.47||0.63||CDO @ Golder Rd||Cañada Del Oro Wash at Golder Ranch Rd|
|Santa Cata||lina Mountai||ns|
|1030||0||0.08||0.55||0.94||1.77||Oracle Ridge||Oracle Ridge, approximately 1.5 mi N of Rice Peak|
|1090||0||0.04||0.59||1.65||2.87||Mt. Lemmon||Mount Lemmon|
|1110||0||0.04||0.47||0.91||1.46||CDO @ Coronado Camp||Cañada Del Oro Wash 0.3 mi S of Coronado Camp|
|1130||0||0.04||0.71||1.46||2.72||Samaniego Peak||Samaniego Peak on Samaniego Ridge|
|1140||0||0.08||0.63||1.14||1.73||Dan Saddle||Dan Saddle on Oracle Ridge|
|2150||0||0||0.16||0.75||1.57||White Tail||Catalina Hwy 0.8 mi W of Palisade Ranger Station|
|2280||0||0||0.08||0.24||0.31||Green Mountain||Green Mountain|
|2290||0||0.04||0.16||0.55||0.94||Marshall Gulch||Sabino Creek 0.6 mi SSE of Marshall Gulch|
Below, the view of our storm during its peak if you had been flying on a commercial satellite, say, from Honolulu to Washington, DC:
The weather just ahead….
Another lower latitude wave is progressing toward Arizona as we speak. That wave and its front will likely drench the AZCats in their championship quest this evening. And, the southern part of wave is again juicy with a ton of middle and high clouds. Those clouds start passing over us today, starting, of course, with the highest, thinnest ones, Cirrus, and, as per usual, the level of moisture will lower as time goes on. The wave (the bend in the winds aloft) passes over us during the day tomorrow, and again, the wind maximum at 500 mb will be south of us. It is a necessary, but not always sufficient condition for almost all of our winter rains. Just looking at the upper level map makes me think some rain here overnight or tomorrow. No model run, as of 11 PM AST, that I have seen has rain here overnight or tomorrow, but I would watch out for a little rain anyway during that “window.” Cloudwise, lots of Cirrus today, lowering to Altostratus with Altocumulus by tomorrow, lots of virga around by tomorrow and likely sprinkles or light measurable rain around.
Several rain chances are building up, the first one looking better all the time for the 12th, something that has been pretty confidently suggested in the “spaghetti plots3” for more than ten days. Spaghettis is suggesting lots of trough action over the next two weeks. The individual details will vary in the model outputs, some will have rain here, some won’t for the same day, but the weather pattern will be, “unsettled”; lots of trough actions, lot of clouds coming and going like today and tomorrow, no unusual warmth since “Mr. Troughy” (aka, the trough bowl) will be the dominant weather personage for us over this two week period. Lots of great sunrises and sunsets guaranteed, no long boring clear spells.
Pretty darn excited about the weather promise ahead!
1Gauge locations can be found here.
2Even a weatherman knows clock mismanagement when he sees it.
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