Altocumulus clouds, Cumulonimbus clouds, Cumulus clouds, Definitions, Spaghetti plots, The weather WAY ahead (10 days or more)

A cool May ahead?

Well, let us define “cool”….that is, cool for Catalina in May; that is #2, below normal temperatures.

What led to this thought?

I was gasping when I saw this from last night’s NOAA spaghetti factory, as you will as well, and decided I would have to say something about it.

Valid on the 17th of May, 5 PM AST. Wow! And with a persistent pattern like this (red lines dipping so far toward the Equator (which is that dashed line that goes through Hawaii and Mexico1), which we now seem to be in following our little warm up, now in gradual retreat, big flooding will occur in the central and southern Plains States, the kind that makes the 5 o'clock news (or is it 6 o'clock?). Wow.
Valid on the 17th of May, 5 PM AST. Wow! And with a persistent pattern like this (red lines dipping so far toward the Equator (which is that dashed line that goes through Hawaii and Mexico1), which we now seem to be in following our little warm up, now in gradual retreat, big flooding will occur in the central and southern Plains States, the kind that makes the 5 o’clock news (or is it 6 o’clock?). Wow.

Pretty unbelievable.

What does it mean for Catalinans: a personal view?

Oh, big windy episodes from time to time during the month, good chance for above normal rain for Catalina, and probably most interesting, the late spring ovenly weather that we like to brag about how we get through wherein so many of our Catalinans and “Tucsonians” flee to the high country,  or to Michigan, is held at bay by recurring puddles of cold air up top.

That’s my prediction for May, which has already been ludicrously posted in a prior post many days ago.  We might look back at May some day to see how this incredibly unprofessional forecast for a whole month based on one spaghetti run worked out.

If you want professionalism in medium range weather forecasting, then get the hell off this site now!  Maybe you’re the kind of person that would rather see a forecast from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for Catalina and environs.  If so, you don’t belong here.

But lets see what they say, anyway for May, then for the whole of mid-April through July…..to add that bit of uncharacteristic professionalism to this site.  See maps below:

 

off15_temp
Looks like they’re pretty clueless about what the temperature’s going to be like here for May–“EC” means equal chances for below normal OR above normal.  So, they could be right no matter WHAT happens!  But not me.  I think Cal is goona be wrong, too; below normal, not above normal temps.  Its great when you can just type things like that!

off15_prcpThe Big Boys don’t really know what’s going to happen with the May rain here, either, since we are also in an “EC” area.  But boy, look at the May rain foretold for the Plains!  Looks like a great place to spend May!  OKC, maybe.   WCWS begins at the end of May, amateurism at its best.

But, at the same time, for the whole of mid-April through the end of July, the Big Boys at the CPC are expecting the drought in areas of the  central southern Plains States to persist or intensify–see dark brown areas below.

It will be interesting, being serious for the moment, to see how these predictions, seemingly in some conflict,  work out.  Note that in the longer view below, Catalina is in an area where drought “persists or intensifies”, even through JULY!  Egad.

Valid for May, issued in mid-April.

 Nice clouds yesterday….

 

6:00 AM. Mamma to the S.
6:00 AM. Mamma to the S, pretty big mamma.  Indicates unstable conditions aloft, maybe some showers will reach the ground.
10:01 AM. Heavy vIrga pummels air above Catalina/Saddlebrooke.
10:01 AM. Heavy vIrga pummels air above Catalina/Saddlebrooke.
4:20 PM. High-based Cumulonimbus clouds approached from the south promising blasts of wind, maybe a few drops. No drops here, though.
4:20 PM. High-based Cumulonimbus clouds approached from the south promising blasts of wind, maybe a few drops. No drops here, though.
6:47 PM. Cumulonimbus and rain reaching the ground passed to the W-NW of Catalina. Darn.
6:47 PM. Cumulonimbus and rain reaching the ground passed to the W-NW of Catalina. Darn.
DSC_5779-1
7:04 PM. The moon AND pink virga in the SAME photo! Yours today for $900. Trying to follow through on an Atlantic Mag article, “Blogging for Dollars.” That would be great, but it hasn’t happened yet.
DSC_5784-1
7:09 PM. Your Catalina sunset, May 2nd, 2015, Altocumulus castellanus with Cumulonimbus capillatus, along with a Cal palm silhouette.

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Yeah, I saw that report that America’s kids don’t know much about geography, so we’re just checking here to see how bad it really is by suggesting that the Equator goes over the Hawaian Islands (hahaha).  But, maybe, they’re really the Galapagos Islands…    Am I being too subtle?     Sam Cook once pointed out about himself,  “Don’t know much about geography”…in his song, “What a wonderful world it would be“.   it was a movement that apparently caught on.