Yesterday was another great humilis day for you, with quite a phase twist at the end. I am sure most of you out there saw the surprising final touch to a warm day with high-based shallow Cumulus.
Let’s see how close that using that old estimator technique was yesterday by examining the Tucson sounding for 5 PM AST (launched around 3:30 PM, goes up about 1,000 feet a minute). From the Wyoming Cowboys, this:
Wow! LCLP was 515 millibars, just about exactly at 17,000 feet. Also, look how darn cold bases were, almost -10 °C or 14 ° F, tops around -14 °C or just 7 °F, and yet we see no ice…yet.
While waiting for some rain in the days ahead, not backing off that in any way, though models generally have not had any (bad models!), will pass along a horse prank that happened.
Two days in the morning, as I went to fill “Zeus” water tank in the dawn hours, there was something dark at the bottom of it. I thought maybe some poor little animal or bird had drowned in his tank that night. I reached down, and found it was my State Park baseball cap! I had left it on the top of a panel, maybe above the water tank, wasn’t sure, so it likely blew off the panel into the water tank. But then again, I wasn’t sure that Zeus hadn’t put it in there on purpose.
But that was a crazy thought.
As a test, yesterday morning I decided to put the cap back on top of the end of a horse corral panel, but much farther away where it could not possible fall into the tank, just in case Zeus was telling me what he thought of me by dunking my cap.
Here’s what I found when I came back in the afternoon to feed Zeus:The same scene as the prior morning!