Looks pretty good…. Two completely different computer models show tropical moisture getting into Arizona in about 5-6 days a resulting preview of the summer rain season. You can find quite a bit of “green pixies” (areas of rain denoted by areas of green pixels) in Arizona here from IPS Meteostar’s rendition of our best model, the WRF-GFS. And, the Smoking Canadians have rain in our area in their model, too. This is going to be the best chance for measurable rain in Catalina since early April!
In the US model linked to above, you can also see the residual low pressure center from today’s Hurricane “Crissy” moving up the coast of Baja Cal in five days. Finally, could we have a month with above normal rain after not having one since November 2013 (or was it 2012?) Might happen, after all we deserve it. So, I will now predict that June will be above normal in rain in Catalina, AZ.
You can keep track of Crissy here. I will be tracking Crissy, that’s for sure.
Below, an example of rain (with drizzle) in case you’ve forgotten what it looks like in a research aircraft with laser beam imagery of all the stuff you’re flying through:
The discerning reader will want to know what spaghetti sez; what are the chances that the steering winds in the middle of the troposphere will steer Crissy toward us as it moves around off’n Mexico. Will those steering winds help Crissy’s moisture get into Arizona and over Catalina?
We seek help from spaghetti and, indeed, the spaghetti shown below is “supportive”, that is, it shows that the “planets are lining up” for rain here, as an astrologer might say, those people we look to for personal guidance in everyday matters; whose forecasts are so important no newspaper can go without them without causing an uproar on the part of their readers.
See writing on figure below for some additional weather interpretation.
Valid for 5 PM AST June 16th. Those red lines suggest that Crissy’s remains (RIP) might indeed be directed at eastern Arizona! Big trough for this time of year foretold along West Coast with high confidence, as indicated by “bunching lines”, perfect for drawing tropical storms northward into the Southwest US. If not us, then those dry areas of New Mexico and west Texas virtually guaranteed for some tropical air.
Yesterday’s clouds
Tops warmer than -10 C, so no ice, just those thin patches of Cirrus on top.
Nice Altocumulus around this morning, but moisture is really confined to that level, not deep enough for rain at the ground. The Cumulus that form this afternoon will have bases around 14,000 to 15,000 feet above the ground. They should be deeper than yesterday, and so ice is likely to form in the larger ones (and we hope that you will log that in your daily cloud diary), but only tantalizing virga is likely, maybe with some brief windy periods near them.
The End
