Art Rangno – Page 27

Ms. Mt. Lemmon engorges 6.46 inches of rain; 0.86 inches in The Heights of Catalina

Engorge: to become swollen with fluid.

Gauge    15         1           3          6            24         Name                        Location
    ID#      minutes    hour        hours      hours        hours
    —-     —-       —-        —-       —-         —-       —————–            ———————
Catalina Area
    1010     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.51      Golder Ranch   Horseshoe Bend Rd in Saddlebrooke
    1020     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.98      Oracle R S approximately 0.5 mi SW of Oracle
    1040     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.83      Dodge Tank     Edwin Rd 1.3 mi E of Lago Del Oro Pkw
    1050     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.98      Cherry Spring   approximately 1.5 mi W of Charouleau
    1060     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         1.50      Pig Spring   approximately 1.1 mi NE of Charouleau
    1070     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.75      Cargodera Canyon    NE corner of Catalina State Park
    1080     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.55      CDO @ Rancho Solano CDO Wash NE of SaddleB
    1100     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.63      CDO @ Golder Rd     CDO Wash at Golder Ranch Rd

Santa Catalina Mountains
    1030     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.04         2.56      Oracle Ridge   Oracle Ridge, approximately 1.5 mi N of Rice Peak
    1090     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.12         6.46      Mt. Lemmon
    1110     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         1.73      CDO @ Coronado Camp    CDO Wash 0.3 mi S of Coronado Camp
    1130     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         2.05      Samaniego Peak   Samaniego Peak on Sam Ridge
    1140     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         4.92      Dan Saddle    Dan Saddle on Oracle Ridge
    2150     0.00       0.04       0.08        0.16         3.39      White Tail   Catalina Hwy 0.8 mi W of Palisade RS
    2280     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.08         3.82      Green Mountain
    2290     0.04       0.04       0.04        0.08         2.05      Marshall Gulch   Sabino Creek 0.6 mi SSE of Marshall Gulch

That seems like an appropriate description for Ms. Mt. Sara Lemmon after SIX inches of rain. Lemmon’s probably a little taller today than yesterday at this time, too. Should see the “glistening rocks” phenomenon now for a few weeks, as was the case after the several inches of rain at the end of last January. Will look to see if the Sutherland is flowing today.

Besides the stupendous amount of rain yesterday in the Catalinas, there were two other rare events.

1) an occurrence of the rarely seen cloud, Stratus (the cloud that resembles gray wall paper, not much going on inside it).

2) misty light rain and drizzle that fell from clouds having no ice (which means the tops could have been as cool as between -4 C to -10 C, nature’s highest ice-forming threshold temperatures in clouds, if you care.)

Below, the afternoon sounding, launched at Wildcat University at about 3:30 PM. Goes up at about a thousand feet a minute:

The TUS sounding for yesterday afternoon as rendered by the Cowboys of Wyoming.

Same diagram, but with added value. Arrows point to region where tops were, rectangle highlights temperatures. With this diagram, called a “Skew-T”, you must tilt your head about 45 degrees to the left to get the correct view of the isotherms, those straight lines that in this view, slope upward to the right. The slightest drizzle that fell, likely fell from the warmest shallowest cloud tops, the heavier showers were deeper, likely extending to 0 C or slightly above.

Now, if you’re a real cloud maven person, you would have known that this was happening in Calalina/Oro Valley yesterday afternoon without looking at a sounding. It was the visibility reducing, fine, close together drops alternating between true drizzle¹ When drops get bigger than that, we call those raindrops. But whose got a micrometer out there?

Much of the time the very lightest drizzle and rain fell on us without an indication of a radar echo, likely because the tops were below the beam from the radar site far to the SE of us. TEEVEE weathermen were flummoxed by this, reporting that rain was only falling in areas where there were echoes and that it wasn’t raining here. Woulda happened to me, making the big money on TEEVEE as a weatherman, too, had I not been here to observe this rare occurrence. But, instead I am here not making any money at all writing this. There must be a reason for it.

Now, what you’ve been waiting for, the shades of gray from yesterday:

Even those coupla of heavier showers later in the evening likely had no ice in them, though this is more of a guess based on the high concentration of raindrops smaller raindrops.

Next, let’s see if Hawai’i came to Arizona yesterday:

A couple of soundings from yesterday afternoon launched at Hilo and Lihue, HI.

In conclusion, based on nearly identical temperature and humidity profiles at TUS and in Hawai’i yesterday afternoon:

Hawai’i has come to Arizona!

There’ll be some more “climate substitution” today, too, before it all fades away into heat and dryness in the next coupla weeks.

Yes, your cloud day yesterday, starting with those STRANGE Stratus fractus clouds that churned and shot straight up the sides of Sam (Samaniego) Ridge just after the first bout of light rain. Estimating updrafts were something in the 10-20 kts straight up. Clueless about what exactly was causing that to happen, This phenomenon did not last long;

10:37 AM, after the lower air had been moistened by 0.09 inches of rain. No name for this strange sight, or maybe, Stratus floccus.

OK, I’m talkin’ about that! Was shooting up like a rattler going for a horse’s belly. The higher cloud layer was Altostratus/Nimbostratus; you could use either name.

10:37 AM also. More churning clouds over there.

After this, the intermittent light rain moved in again. If you don’t believe me that the rain was intermittent, here’s evidence from a tipping bucket record for the day, annotated for boredom after you questioned my statement:

Yesterday's rain graph from a Davis Vantage Pro Mark IV Extra Deluxe tipping bucket raingauge in the Sutherland Heights area of Catalina, Arizona. — Yesterday’s rain graph from a Davis Vantage Pro Plus Mark IV Extra Deluxe tipping bucket rain gauge in the Sutherland Heights area of Catalina, Arizona.

More clouds

11:29 AM. It starts raining again. Churning clouds briefly visible through cloud vault.

2:23 PM. Looks like a view from Hilo to me except for the very different vegetation.

4:25 PM. With southwest winds and lots of moisture, our crevice cloud formed yesterday showing how saturated air can be trapped in the lee of obstacles. When it occurs on a mountain top is called a "banner cloud." — 4:25 PM. With southwest winds and lots of moisture, our familiar “crevice cloud” formed yesterday when the clouds lifted briefly showing how saturated air can be trapped in the lee of obstacles. When it occurs on a mountain top is called a “banner cloud.”

5:15 PM. Stratus, a little ragged on the bottom, moves in and drizzle erupts along the Catalinas. A bird on a pole watches the drama.

5:15 PM. In case you don't believe me that there was a bird on a pole watching the drizzle drama unfold. I find I have to keep proving myself to my reader, even after all these years. Well, two years, anyway. — 5:15 PM. In case you don’t believe me that there was a bird on a pole watching the drizzle drama unfold. I find I have to keep proving myself to my reader, even after all these years. Well, two years, anyway.

5:56 PM. FInally, what you've been waiting for, as good an example of "pure Stratus" as has ever been seen, and it was right here in Catalina, Arizona, not along the northern California, Oregon or Washington coasts in summer where pure Stratus is usually seen every morning (if you'd like to see more Stratus, that's where to go). — 5:56 PM. Finally, what you’ve been waiting for, as good an example of “pure Stratus” as has ever been seen, and it was right here in Catalina, Arizona, not along the northern California, Oregon or Washington coasts in summer where pure Stratus is usually seen every morning (if you’d like to see more Stratus, that’s where to go).

Wow, what a lot of information for you today! Hours of effort here! Well, maybe two. Maybe I could write a book about rain! Oops. Its already been done (“Rain²“). Cynthia Barnett, award winning science writer has just done it. That’s what happens when you procrastinate or don’t think of it in the first place.

Enjoy a last summer rain season day and those beautiful clouds we’ll have. Looks like drizzle/warm rain again on the mountains right now!

The End.

——————————-

¹By definition, drizzle drops can’t be bigger than 500 microns in diameter, equivalent to about five human hairs; a fewer horse tail hairs. And, as you know from the many harangues on this subject, such small drops MUST be close together to be termed an occurrence of drizzle, as happened yesterday afternoon into the evening.

²Highly recommended

Canadian GEM has a gem!

Had to come out of general hibernation to share this with you.From last night’s global data, this Canadian Global Environmental Model “solution”; a tropical storm center passes over Tucson!

Wow, what an interesting event that would be. Of course, wouldn’t be much of a wind thing, but could bring extra soaking rains with it. Size of font in figure below indicates level of personal excitement over this prediction.

As you know, good chances for significant rain have been predicted for most of AZ next week for a few days, but this would be a little icing on those predictions if we got a tropical low center passing over us.

Valid Monday afternoon. If this were too verify, there'd be a little wind with steady light to moderate rain over a period of hours, maybe would accum to an inch or two. — Valid Monday afternoon. If this were too verify, there’d be a little wind with steady light to moderate rain over a period of hours, maybe would accum to an inch or two.

Dust up

Cloud maven persons certainly saw this from the beginning; that scruff of something dark coming over the hills from the Avra Valley late yesterday afternoon. Here it is:

4:37 PM. Dark cloud cloud, smoke or dust, creeps over the hills SW of Marana from Avra Valley. Didn't know what it was myself, which is quite something in itself. — 4:37 PM. Dark cloud cloud, smoke or dust, creeps over the hills SW of Marana. Didn’t know what it was myself, which is quite something in itself.

4:48 PM Dark something creeping into Oro Valley. — 4:48 PM Dark something now invading Oro Valley. Hills now obscured. Was thinking it was a grass fire since there had been no thunderstorm in the area upstream that might have produced outflow winds.

5:22 PM. By this time is was apparent that this was a dust storm that had raced over the hills and into Oro Valley, on its way to Catalina, a very thin version of a 'Boob. Pretty amazing since there seemed to have been no storm to have produced it. — 5:22 PM. By this time is was apparent that this was a dust storm that had raced over the hills and into Oro Valley, on its way to Catalina, a very thin version of a ‘boob. Pretty amazing since there seemed to have been no storm to have produced it.

The rest of the story, as Paul Harvey used to say, was that the wind suddenly gushed in Catalina, estimated to 40 mph, briefly with a bit of haze due to this dust. A few drops of rain fell here from that layer cloud above that dust cloud a little later.

Nice little momentary and surprising splat of rain here last evening just after dark (about 7:30 PM). Radar showed just a little dot of rain when it happened. Drops were heavy enough for us to say, “What’s that?”, thinking it might be wind. Hardly lasted a minute.

Big LA rain yesterday morning!

A very surprising, heavy rain was in progress yesterday morning in southern Cal, Ventura County line southward into Baja, from the remains of tropical storm, Linda. Downtown LA got over 2 inches, as did numerous other sites. That would be about ten times the average September rainfall.

We seem to continue in the humid stream from Linda. Temp now 71 F, dewpoint 65! Very Hawaiian with Strato cu again topping Samaniego (Sam) Ridge. Likely to be a day similar to yesterday, kind of flat clouds on top of moderate Cumulus, with some tops protruding high enough to form ice.

Microphysics module

What kind of ice?

Probably needles and sheaths (aka, hollow columns), as likely was the type of ice in those clouds that barely precipitated, i. e., had the warmest tops, and produced fine veils of rain.

The heavier shafts suggested taller tops, colder than -10 C (14 F) with more complex ice crystals like stellars and dendrites form. All guesswork here, but hey, guessing is fun. The afternoon TUS sounding, which I just now looked at AFTER guessing, SEEMS to support these guesses.

In sum, yesterday was likely an unusual day for Arizona with ice forming in clouds with tops equal to or warmer than -10 C. This can really only happen when the clouds are especially loaded with water and are rather “clean” having lower droplet concentrations, both of which allow the formation of larger sizes of droplets in the clouds, which in turn, if you are still with me, leads to ice forming at higher temperatures than normal. The usual ice-forming temperature in AZ clouds is lower than -10 C since droplets are rarely very large in clouds here until they’re colder than -10 C. Well, that takes care of the last reader…..he’ll never be back.

The weather WAY ahead

The models continue to predict a longish spell of rain during the last ten days of September. In fact, the 18 Z WRF-GFS model run from yesterday had more rain in AZ than I have ever seen in a model output during that spell. Of course, as realistically weathermappy as these model outputs look, they are not too reliable, though this spell continues to be predicted in run and after run, as it has even with the latest (06 Z, 11 PM AST last night’s) run here.

From yesterday’s 18 z run, to fuel your imagination and hope, take a look at this output before they are overwritten by MeteoStar later today when the new 18 Z run is posted.

The End.

Your evening sililoquoy with a Cumulonimbus

Along with this photo sequence, I reprise the thoughts you had as a CMJ¹ yesterday as you watched a truly stunning cloud drama evolve:

6:01 PM. Huh. Kind of an isolated patch of dying Cumulus, transitioning to Stratocumulus (Strato, "flat", Cumulus, "heap." Huh. Flat heap? Kinda funny. — 6:01 PM. Huh. Kind of an isolated patch of dying Cumulus, transitioning to Stratocumulus (Strato, “flat”, Cumulus, “heap.” Huh. Flat heap? Kinda funny. A little late in the day for anything to happen, that’s for sure.

6:16 PM. Well, that’s kind of rude. Must’ve heard my comment.

6:24 PM. Hah-hah; that rude “finger” came off. But look, rain’s coming out! Wow! And a much fatter turret is emerging. How interesting! Very surprising this late in the day.

6:26 PM. This is really getting interesting! More rain coming out, a whole series of turrets are emerging! How can this be? Hardly another cloud in the sky, they’ve all died away, but this one seems to be on Red Bull.

6:34 PM. Good grief, can hardly believe how big this has gotten after looking like a dead bit cloud! When the rain is being released the cloud is no longer carrying all that weight and can spurt upward.

6:39 PM. Truly magnificent. Since the main vertical riser does not show clear evidence of being fibrous, this would be call a Cumulonimbus calvus, “calvus” meaning bald. To the left was older cloud which did appear fibrous. In those cases, the cloud would be termed a Cb capillatus. Not a lot of lightning with this yesterday, so updrafts probably not extreme. Updrafts separate hail and smaller ice which provide electrification; no updraft to speak of, as in “flat” clouds, no electrification.

Nice morning, though, breezy, humid (dewpoint 65 F) with “flat heaps” (Stratocu) topping Sam Ridge now. What will happen today? Mods think some showers will form in the mid-afternoon here and there. But wind will keep the temperatures down, reduce chances of that.

Should be a pretty day regardless of what happens with the blue of the sky deepening each day as the sun recedes to the south farther each day.

Strangely, in the longer, unreliable term, the mods have been forecasting rain in AZ almost every day the last ten days of September, and this has been repeated for several runs. Huh#3.

The End; back to other work.

———————–

¹CMJ– Cloud Maven Junior, our local club. No meeting this month.

So happy for you

For the second time this month, cloud-centric folk had a rare and happy sight: “naked” Nimbostratus, that is, the well-known mid-level¹ precipitating cloud layer was present for all to see, but without the obscuring lower cloud decks normally associated with it, clouds like Stratocumulus or Stratus. Time and time again those pesky lower layers prevent one from seeing whose really producing the rain or snow at the ground because when precip is falling, its normally moist enough that lower clouds are present.

Those lower layers are important in enhancing precip because while they aren’t precipitating themselves (though it may seem like it) the drops falling into them from the Nimbostratus higher up, 1) won’t evaporate inside the cloud, and 2), if the droplets in the Stratocu are large enough, some of them will be collected by the raindrop falling through it and it becomes larger, the rain that bit heavier! How great is that?

Its really hard to compare how rare yesterday’s sight of “naked” Nimbostratus was yesterday, but offhand, I would say its about as rare as a professional wildlife photographer² catching a shot of Cockrum’s Gray Shrew, aka, the “Hairy Packrat” or just “Harry Packrat”, shown below:

Oh, yeah, that Nimbostratus layer sans lower clouds….

12:37 PM. A layer of pure Nimbostratus produces very light, steady rain in Catalina. Cumulostratus³ clouds line the Catalinas below it.

Except for the rarity of the view, not much to see. The bottom is blurred by falling precip, and when its snow, where that snow melts into rain is perceived as the base of Nimbostratus. So…….in the warmer time of the year, “naked” Nimbostratus has a higher perceived “base” than in the cooler time of the year.

There was also another unusual situation, a cloud layer that really has no good name which I will now call from here on, “Cumulostratus.” See below:

12:07 PM. A great example of the newly named cloud, "Cumulostratus." Really there is no existing name that really hits this, maybe Stratocumulus castellanus. — 12:07 PM. An example of the newly named cloud, “Cumulostratus.” Really there is no existing name that really hits this, maybe Stratocumulus castellanus.

2:07 PM. Kind of fun to see the hide and seek the “Cumulostratus” clouds were playing with Samaniego Ridge and Ms Mt Lemmon, too.

2:07 PM. Kind of fun to see the hide and seek the clouds were playing with Samaniego Ridge and Ms Mt Lemmon, too. — 12:07 PM. An example of the newly named cloud, “Cumulostratus.” Really there is no existing name that really hits this, maybe Stratocumulus castellanus.

2:07 PM. Kind of fun to see the hide and seek the “Cumulostratus” clouds were playing with Samaniego Ridge and Ms Mt Lemmon, too.

Not much immediately ahead in weather, oh, maybe some scattered showers later Sunday through Tuesday. Nothing really great jumps out of the spaghetti plots in the longer term.

The Canadian model thinks the newly formed desert lands of northern Cal all the way down to “Frisco” will get drenched, beginning in five days or so. That’s good. The USA model, using the same global obs at 5 PM AST yesterday, do not see that happening, but rather just some very light rains. Go Canada!

The End

———————————

¹Probably doesn’t seem like Nimbostratus should be grouped with mid-level clouds like Altocumulus and Altostratus, but it is, strangely believe it, as I like to say. On synoptic weather maps it was placed above the station circle, indicating a mid-level or high cloud was present, as a “lazy F”, the character “F” lying on its back. Cloud types are no longer plotted on surface weather maps since today, clouds are mostly detected by machines, not humans. “Rise of the machines.” You know the story.

²The shot here forwarded to me with much excitement by pro photographer, Rick Bowers, of Bowers Photo, who had tried to photograph this vermin for about 20 years he reported.

³“Cumulostratus” is a name I made up because IMO there really is no satisfactory name for the cloud that lined the Catalinas/Samaniego Ridge yesterday.

Cloud scenes from August 31, 2015, a big summer rain day

BTW, a little more than 4.5 inches has fallen on Mt. Lemmon in the past 24 h. 0.99 inches fell here in Sutherland Heights. Maybe the Sutherland Wash will be running this morning. That would be nice to see.

More rains ahead in the next few days. Mushrooms coming…

Rain water balloon hitting ground, shoving other rain shaft aside.

An approaching complex array of clouds just before sunset led to evening/nighttime TSTMS (weather text for “thunderstorms”). Often at this time of day, showers like this just fade away to just anvil debris. But not yesterday. Must have been, in this case, indicative of the approach of an upper level “congregator” or disturbance that doesn’t care so much about day or night.

The End.

A day of cloud magnificence and error

Morning thunder, evening thunder; 0.84 inches of rain, 1-2 inches in the mountains, with some of the most dramatic skies and shocking cloud changes ever seen (by me). “But, hey, enough of ‘me’, lets get on with the ‘shockumentary'”, as Rob Reiner might say.

Scene 1: Its morning. A horsey ride has been planned with an important, published friend. You’re thinking, “It will be good to be seen with someone important.” No one’s paying attention to weather. The weather is cloudy, quite nice really, but nothing threatening can be seen.

6:48 AM. Nothing to worry about really. Just a patch of Altocumulus castellanus. Quite pretty.

Scene 2. Heading out.

7:20 AM. Heading out. Wonder what that is coming 'round the mountain. Probably nothing, though it is kind of dark. Cloud bases are lower, too. — 7:20 AM. Wonder what that is coming ’round the mountain. Probably nothing, though it is kind of dark over there. Cloud bases are lower, too. Desert’s turning a nice green now after the recent rains. Too bad there isn’t more rain ahead.

Scene 3. On the trails.

7:33 AM. Been on the trails for more than 12 minutes... Cloud bases lower still, but, its probably just harmless, non-precipitating Stratocumulus. Nothing to be too concerned about, though the amount of water in the air must be prodigious today. — 7:33 AM. Been on the trails for quite awhile, maybe more than 12 minutes… Cloud bases lower still, but, its probably just harmless, non-precipitating Stratocumulus. Nothing to be too concerned about, though the amount of water in the air must be prodigious today.

Scene 4. Ooops

7:43 AM. Huh. Rain and thunder approaching rapidly. Note horse's rear pointing in the direction of the storm (lower center right). As a horseman, you would know that this is a classic sign that a storm is approaching from that direction, though you can see it coming as well, — 7:43 AM. Rain and thunder approached rapidly. Note horse’s rear pointing in the direction of the storm (lower center right). As a horseman, you would know that horses often point there rear ends at storms, hard to say why, but its a classic sign that a storm is approaching from that direction, though you can see it yourself as well. Actually, we were fleeing like mad, embarrassed galore that cloud maven person did not look at radar that morning to see what was over the hill.

Scene 5. Dramatic skies and a few close strikes.

7:47 AM. Just about back, but LTG strikes getting closer faster.

The storm passed dropping 0.22 inches. And, compounding error, as we know, when potent upper air disturbances bring morning thunder and rain, its pretty much always the case that the rest of the day will be dry as a subsiding couplet of air follows a rising one, the the strongly rising couplet of air that forced our morning clouds and storm.

So, was kind of looking ahead to a disappointing rest of the day , but was thankful for the unusual morning storm.

1:49 PM. As expected, a large clearing occurred, followed by the development of a few harmless Cumulus over the Catalinas. — 1:49 PM. As expected, a large clearing occurred following the morning rain, and a few harmless Cumulus developed over the Catalinas.

5:49 PM. A thunderstorm passes NE of Catalina, but like the day before, will likely only bring on a mighty wind, though a rain-cooled one. That will be nice. — 5:49 PM. A thunderstorm passes NE of Catalina, but like the day before, will likely only bring on “a mighty wind”, to quote Rob Reiner again, though a rain-cooled one. That will be nice.

5:59 PM. Quite “histrionic”, but certainly won’t get here…..

6:07 PM. Nice Cumulus congestus in foreground; giant anvil in back from the storm to the N-NE.

6:10 PM. Nice scruff of Stratocumulus/Cumulus mediocris rides above the NE winds that blew out of the storm to the north. Certainly, these clouds won’t do anything. Bases disorganized, nothing congealing.

6:17 PM. Huh. Bases looking a little better, especially back there over the mountains. Still, seems VERY unlikely anything will happen. Its late in the day, temperature falling…..

6:31 PM. The larger base has crept closer to Catalina. But, as you can plainly see, its not doing anything, and hasn’t over the past 20 min or so, so you can pretty well forget that it will do anything. A few minutes later, thunder began to erupt from it. I could NOT believe it, as you were thinking as well. No sign of an anvil, ice, or shaft! Forecast of no rain going bad….very bad.

6:34 PM. There it is, on the right, the emergence of the shaft from one of the smallest thundering clouds this writer has ever seen. Within a couple of minutes, Oro Valley below was not visible!

6:41 PM. Looking toward Catalina. The visible sun shows that the intense rainshaft and cloud cover was quite narrow and limited. — 6:41 PM. Looking toward Catalina, lower portion. Its gone. The visible sun shows that the intense rainshaft and cloud cover were quite narrow and limited.

6:54 PM. Backside of first dump shown above. Magnificent!

But it wasn’t over by a long ways was it?

6:53 PM. A new, much larger, firmer base has formed in the same spot as the previous storm. And you KNOW its going to dump on us!

7:01 PM. What a blast! This one brought pea-sized hail. — 7:01 PM. What a blast! This one brought pea-sized hail to the Sutherland Heights neighborhood.

7:02 PM. Perhaps the shot of the day of the first evening blast as it moved off past Saddlebrook. — 7:02 PM. Perhaps the shot of the day of the first evening blast as it moved over and past Saddlebrook.

The End, finally!

The Domes of Lemmon

Here they are. 6:32 PM yesterday. — Here they are. 6:32 PM yesterday, under an Atlocumulus opacus sky.

Thought maybe I would trick some moviephiles into sampling a cloudcentric blog, jack up my ratings through error. Well, “The Domes of Lemmon” COULD be a movie…maybe one about, Sara Lemmon, for whom the mountain is named for, maybe starring Madonna as the feisty young botanist. Well, maybe not “young”…

Notice, too, that I capitalized stuff in the title, which I usually don’t do because I don’t know any better. I think only connecting words like adjectives are capitalized in titles.

Lot of lighting yesterday, too. Some of it was pretty close to the house, within a few miles. Lightning, too; one strike within a couple hundred yards, probably on the power pole out there in State Trust Land.

Pause….off to gymnasium. Maybe more later.

Blues returning to Tucson!

You won’t have to go to New Mexico, Sonora, or the Indian State of Kerala to find great summer rain. According to this model output from last evening, its only a bit more than a week away!

The last time we saw a model prediction like the ones below, was for the 24 h ending today, made a whopping 12 days ago. When you consider the great rains we had ending YESTERDAY morning (2-7 inches in the mountains, and inch here in The Heights, that far out prediction was only a day or so off. So, there’s hope that the paucity of summer rain that has left our desert so brown will be rectified a bit more in the near future.

Below, from 5 PM AST obs, the WRF-GFS 12-h rain totals predicted for August 20 and beyond as rendered by IPS MeteoStar. Normally, these are pretty useless predictions, but since that last one with so much rain foretold was close to what actually happened, maybe there’s something to watch out for around the 20th.

Ann 2015080900_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_276 — Valid at 5 AM AST, August 20th. Colored regions denote areas where the model has calculated that rain has fallen during the prior 12 h. Blue indicates heavier precip than green.

2015080900_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_300 — Hard to be bluer than this! Valid in only 288 h from now! Valid on Friday, August 21st at 5 AM AST.

Some recent cloud photos

12:46 PM, August 7th. Telephone pole is going down on Linda Vista due to a microburst. — 12:46 PM, August 7th. Telephone pole was going down on Linda Vista due to this microburst outflow.

2:45 PM, August 7th. The Gap gets shafted. Nice.

2:55 PM, August 7th. One of the great cloud bases of our time begins to take shape UPWIND of Catalina!

3:03 PM, August 7th. "So round, so firm, so fully packed", as the cigarette ad used to say. This is looking really great for Catalina at this point. I am sure I am reflecting the excitement you felt that day. — 3:03 PM, August 7th. “So round, so firm, so fully packed”, as the cigarette ad used to claim. This is looking really great for Catalina at this point, might unload right on us!. I am sure I am reflecting the excitement you felt that day.

3:03 PM, August 7th. "Droop, there it is", as they used to sing on In Living Color. Who woulda dreamed that Sasha Alexander would be one of the Fly GIrls on that show? — 3:03 PM, August 7th. “Droop, there it is^“. A report from Birdman, Rick Bowers, indicated that 1.16 inches fell in just in this storm. over there on Trotter, south end of Catalina. Only 0.71 inches in the Sutherland Heights, but still great. Fizzlerama continued as the storm headed north toward Saddlebrook with less than 0.2 inches there.

3:20 PM, August 7th. Visibility, for a few seconds, down to 1/8th of a mile in TRW++, wind gusts to 30 kts or so. Now this is exciting! Temp dropped from 97 F to 72 F! This was not quite the lowest visibility.

After a night of intermittent rain and thunder, dawn yesterday brought this dump on Sam Ridge, where 1.06 inches fell in an hour, 0.51 inches in 15 minutes.

The End.

Some cloud photos from recent days

Have had little time lately, some problems, too, loading photos in WP, so that’s why. Looks like the next best chance for rain is Friday into Saturday. But you already know that from all the TEEVEE weather you watch.

The End.

From three days ago. Marana/west Tucson got shafted pretty good. At least an inch fell in the core of this beauty. This was after it looked like it was going to be a quiet day west of the Catalinas.