Art Rangno – Page 94

Pretty and eerie skies yesterday; let the rain begin today

Here are some examples from yesterday’s pretty, then toward evening, eerie skies with sprinkles, the latter due to backlit Altostratus opacus mammatus, to go the whole nine yards, an icy cloud with downward hanging protuberances that resemble something. I’ve reduced the size of that image accordingly. Below, in sequence, 1) Cirrus, 2) Altocumulus, 3) the incoming bank of Altocumulus with Altostratus clouds on the horizon late yesterday afternoon, ones with virga and mammatus; 4) the mix of Altostratus with virga and mammatus with Altocumulus after it got here, and finally, 5) that eerie scene last evening of what I would surmise was a sunset colored layer of Cirrus above the Altostratus clouds with mammatus that gave the Altostratus an orangish tint. I seem to be thinking a lot about mammatus formations today. Hmmmmm. Oh, well the CLOUDS were nice, and I guess you might say, our official cloud names a little suggestive. For the full fascinating day, go here to our great U of A time lapse movie for yesterday.

All of these clouds are emanating out of and around a low that a week ago, in the models, was supposed to have already gone by. Well, what’s left of it finally goes over us today, kicked out of place by a quite rudely interjecting jet around a cold trough in the NE Pacific and over the Pacific Northwest.

Here is a satellite loop from the University of Washington showing those clouds that went across yesterday and those similar versions that will be crossing our Catalina skies today, ones that are coming deep out of the tropics. You’ll want to crank up the speed button to really see what’s going, at the upper left of this loop. The mods have been seeing a bit more moisture with this upper level low (doesn’t show up on the surface maps at all) as time has passed and so maybe we can wring as much as a quarter inch out of it. Here’s what the U of A Beowulf Cluster has to say about the incoming rain amounts. These amounts, up to an inch in the mountains, would be fantastic and very satisfying considering the long dry spell. The best chance of rain is overnight, so we’ll have lots of pretty clouds, probably a lot like yesterday, during the day before the really thick stuff moves in.

The ominous aspect, though VERY exciting to us stormophiles, is, when you review that satellite loop from the Washington Huskies Weather Department, is the accumulation of clouds and storms in a long belt just north of the Hawaiian Islands. Take a look! In just a couple of days, those clouds and storms will begin streaming toward the West Coast like a dam breaking, impacting most heavily, northern California and Oregon with tremendous rains. You will certainly read about those rains! From experience, I can tell you that the most favorable mountain sites for rain will likely receive 20-30 inches of rain in just a few days as this pattern develops and matures with one strong low center after another racing across the lower latitudes of the Pacific under the soft underbelly of a blocking high in the Bering Sea.

Man, I want to be in the King Range/Shelter Cove area so bad! Let’s see, fly to SFO now, rent four wheel drive vehicle for forest back roads in the King Range, bring rain gauge, sleeping bag, tent for camping out and listening to 1 inch per hour rain intensity on tent roof. Hmmm….. Its doable. Maybe all of us should go there today, get set up, and then wait for those pounding rains with 50 mph plus winds. That would be great!

And the ocean waves will be something to see, too, along the Oregon and northern California coasts, thundering surf really. Been there, seen it. And believe or not, there are surfers who come to the West Coast for just these situations, the long tropical fetch that generates huge waves. And there is even a small cadre of folks who race to the coast just to see that thunderous surf. All very exciting. Well, kind of getting distracted here, and a little nostalgic. Those big rollers would look something like this.

Also, since I have doubtlessly piqued your curiosity about Shelter Cove and the King Range, below a shot of the King Range from Shelter Cove, a shot in the King Range, looking toward the highest peaks, and finally, an example of the people of Shelter Cove.

Now, where was I concerning Catalina? Oh, yeah, mods have more rain ahead, though we’re only sideswiped by the powerful storms affecting Shelter Cove. Best chance for the next rain is on the 21-22nd.

In sum, today’s focus, or more accurately, preoccupations? Mammatus and Shelter Cove, CA.

The End.

Dust settling rain on way, but not much more right away

Good morning to the both of you who reads this blog. Expect 0.10 inches or less Sunday night. Clouds? This is going to be a great photogenic day, both today and tomorrow as delicate patterns of high and middle clouds race over us in advance of this little system carried by those increasing winds aloft. Charge your camera batteries!

Model harrangue, northern Cal flood ahead, surfer note

Mods behaving well today except for the truculent 00 Z run of the USA WRF-GFS one, one that in this arthur’s opinion, has a “WARM BIAS” in that run. For some reason, and I am more inclined now to REALLY think it is due to a “bad balloon” somewhere WAY upwind, the warmth over Arizona and the whole friggin’ West Coast is enhanced on that 00 Z run from earlier and later model runs. The jet stream on the 00 Z runs shifts northward that bit as the warmth increases over us.

But then, in a model updated run just 6 h later, it is gone, the atmosphere gets that bit colder, the jet stream that bit farther S, and things stay that way in the 12 Z and 18 Z runs.

What this means for rain and such here is that lately the 00 Z model run takes future rain away, rain that has been on other model runs before that one. But then it comes back again. I am mainly referring to rain predicted beyond 7 days. I have not yet discerned a lessening of rain for those events in the immediate future.

OK this is clearly more than you or maybe anyone wants to know, but I would, if I were you, pooh-pooh the 00 Z run and look at the ones around that time for chances of rain here beyond a week or so. OK, that’s my hypothesis.

Here are examples of model outputs from two different runs, again from the folks at IPS Meteostar, comparing the output from last night’s 00 Z run with the one that came afterward at 06 Z. The first two panels are the only ones beyond this next Monday that have ANY rain in AZ in the 15 days ahead of today. Unless you have a microscope trained on these images, you’ll have to click on them (does same thing as a microscope) to see those itty bitty patches of green representing an area where rain is supposed to have fallen in the prior 6 h, ending at map time. Gee, hope you got that.

Below these two “bad” ones from the 00 Z run, are two “good” images for about the same time as those first shown.

Look at all the AZ green now! These are great predictions for lots of precip in AZ in 10 days or so. It even takes longer for the rain to move on from AZ, hence, why I show four panels of precip below.

This is goofy, shouldn’t happen, but it is and I don’t REALLY know why, but of late that AZ drying in the 00Z run has been happening pretty regularly.

Floody Oregon and northern California still ahead beginning on Tuesday

For storm chasers, a really nice place to be would be, say, Shelter Cove, CA, and somewhere in the King Range just north of there. The mountains rise up from the seashore to over 4,000 feet and face the southwest. In these situations, ones where the Pac jet breaks through under a big blocking high in the Gulf of Alaska, something that will begin on Tuesday, rains of over 10 inches a day are pretty common.

Surfer note: Expect giant waves as well along northern Cal and Oregon coasts after about Wednesday. Here they come!

Models warming up to rain; some cloud shots from yesterday

Been kind of sitting around waiting for the billions/trillions of numerical model calculations to get it “right”, that is, to come back with some decent rain SOMEWHERE in Arizona after some pretty sad dry model results over the past couple of days.

Today, the great USA WRF-GFS model (rendered by IPS Meteostar) finally got it “right” by showing rain over Arizona on at least three days during the next 15 when it examined global data from this morning balloon, satellite, surface, aircraft, personal weather stations, rumors, TEEVEE weather presenters’ data, etc. Here are the days on which rain is shown in our great state, a state that ranks 21st in objective measures of subjective happiness by US State. The first rain is just this Sunday afternoon and evening, the 15th. Be ready. This is from the cutoff that got lost off the coast of Baja, one that was a week ago the models foretold that it was supposed to be over Catalina today! Unbelievable. It was only off by a 1000 miles.

The second AZ rain day is Saturday night into Sunday, the 21st-22nd. This rain is only supposed to stay north of about Phoenix. That’s OK. That’s followed by a much heavier burst of precip on the night of the 23-24th, again mostly north of us (3rd panel). That’s OK#2. We benefit when the rain and snow falls in the north, too.

Lots to look forward to!

BTW, when that Pac jet slams the West Coast from the central Pacific, starting next Tuesday afternoon, it will cause a lot of excitement for weatherfolk and plain folk as floods develop over the following few days in northern California and Oregon. In some places in northern California it has been as dry as the Great Drought of 1976-77, which was dang dry along the whole Pac coast. They’ll soon be “exulting-complaining” about all the rain filling up the reservoirs and washing things away, respectively. Watch your local newspapers.

Yesterday’s clouds (see below)

Loading Images

What a great, if a cool day it was, to watch Altocumulus and Altostratus pass by. There were a number of places where it looked like an aircraft may have created some virga in supercooled Altocumulus clouds, but lots of natural mammatus type virga, too. You can see the whole day go by from the U of A campus time lapse camera, pointed at the Catalina Mountains, here. That small hole in the middle shot was likely caused by an aircraft, the ice from that passage, long gone. And, of course, there was the superb sunset! How nice it is to be here.

While waiting for a “better” numerical model output….

As we say, “if you don’t like the model run now, wait 6 h and get a new one with different results.”

Last night’s model run based on global data taken at 5 PM Arizona time, was truly mediocre in rain in Arizona in the week to two weeks ahead. Sure, great storms bash northern California, where they need rain desperately this year, and Washington and Oregon as well, ones that are likely to make the news, the jet stream was again retracted to the north in that run. Take a look at this, courtesy of IPS Meteostar for Sunday, January 22nd and notice where the reddish area is compared to the output I showed yesterday (below). The impacting jet stream is now centered over Portland, Oregon, fer Pete’s Sake! Its outrageous. No rain is imminent here with a map like that! We’re on the wrong side of the jet stream as anyone can see. Just yesterday, we had the kind of output from global observations that showed the Pacific jet stream (JS), this on model calculations from only six hours earlier than the output shown in the first panel. As you can see, in that slightly earlier run, the JS is shown bursting into California at almost the exact same time on January 22nd instead of into Oregon. That second panel was loaded with rainy portent for Arizona (see last panel)! So, its worth checking into IPS Meteostar, a weather provider I favor for their nice imageries, later today to see what the 5 AM AZ Time global obs say.

Why do these fluctuations occur that prevent confidence in weather predictions more than a few days out? Well, we have a reason: “bad balloon.” (Or “missing balloon.”)

While small changes in initial conditions in themselves can cause vast changes in model outputs many days ahead, sometimes these problems are caused by errors in measurements and probably more often, missing measurements in the global network. The models then have to guess what is happening in the missing data regions, usually with the help of satellite measurements, and/or use the prior model run’s prediction of what was supposed to be in the missing region.

I am getting the impression that the quality of the 00 Z runs are not as high in reliability 1-2 weeks in advance as those at 12 Z.

In the meantime, while waiting for a new more better model run, a word about today’s clouds…

Right now (8:44 AM AST) we have an overcast layer of Altocumulus (Ac) with patches of Altostratus (As) clouds. The former are mostly composed of droplets while the latter are ice clouds. The TUS sounding indicates that the Ac layer is based at -20 C (-4 F). Those Ac clouds are ultraripe for aircraft produced ice, and right this minute, I would say that much of the virga around is due to aircraft on those “supercooled” clouds. This is particularly evident if you see straight lines of virga, or a hole with ice in it. Here’s a line of virga (those downward hanging protuberances called “mammatus”, to the SW of Catalina right now that looks suspiciously like it may have been produced by the passage of an aircraft through some Ac. That passage would cause tremendous numbers of ice crystals to form, and then fall out as fine snow we call virga.

Roar of the jet

But where will it be? While our little baby low center spins and almost dies before it gets here on Sunday-Monday with only the possibility of a few brief light showers now, the bigger question is where exactly will the jet stream break through and slam the Pac coast in about a week? The model runs have been jerking that West Coast location around, but HAVE been shifting it southward in the past 36 h of runs (hmmm, doesn’t sound good) to the point where, in some results, Pac storms riding this roaring Pacific jet stream are far enough south to impact Arizona in a major way. Take a look at these various predictions of where the “breakthrough” jet strikes the Pac coast, the first one from yesterday morning’s model run, and which I was just beside myself at how far south it was impacting the West Coast. In a day or so, major precip moves into Arizona, even our area (second panel). This was not the case in the model run just 6 h before this one. Finally, the next model run just 6 h later, based on data taken at 11 AM LST, even MORE rain was predicted in AZ, and a substantial rain here. Look at the 3rd panel and that darker green region over us! I was so energized!

I think you can tell, given the background of model eractic-ness, where this is going. Its now like a Hallmark movie where everything seems to be just fine in the beginning, but then there’s the problem phase in the middle that must be resolved, followed by the satisfying ending where everything is fine.

Well, after these model runs below, we have entered the problem phase of our “movie” since the very latest model run, from last night at 11 PM LST, had no precip whatsoever in Arizona and the Pac jet slamming the coast much farther north again when it breaks through in a week or so. If you read this blog, you will know that to get winter rain in AZ, you must have the jet stream wind maximum over or to the south of your location. This is also true of most of the interior of the Southwest in winter.

I say to HELL with last night’s model run! Not even going to show it. It is true that the La Nina Southwest Rain Repeller, will try to do exactly that, push jet streams coming into the West Coast farther north. The Climate Prediction Center (“expert assessments”) further alleges, based on many different models, that the La Nina will even strengthen in January, and will likely persist all spring. So, the tendency to push our incoming Pac jet streams north will always be there from here on out, dammitall. So, you have to give, in spite of my cussing, the model output that showed no rain from last night credibility; that we will only be dry, and maybe a bit windy at times as storms skirt Arizona in the 1-2 week period from now.

But does an La Nina always “win” in pushing storms to the north in the late winter and spring? Not only no, but HELL no, to cuss that bit more. The presence of a La Nina, while tending to produce dry conditions, is not all powerful and wet conditions can occur in some La Nina years.

Idle speculation: One wild card out there is that in the very La Nina-El Nino region where the water is cooler today than normal (about 1 degree C) there has been a persistent region of clouds and convection, quite contrary to expectations. Its been feeding heat and moisture into the mid-latitudes since November and remains in that region, shifting very slowly eastward. The CPC did not mention this feature in their global ocean expert assessments for some reason, though a giant blob of colder than normal cloud top temperatures is quite evident from this feature in their plots. But what does it mean? I don’t know. But, since this anomaly (SE of the Hawaiian Islands near the Equator) is acting, in fact, like a little El Nino was present, perhaps it will lead to a less dominant La Nina drought tendency here.

You can see this anomaly here, in the University of Washington’s 24 h satellite loop for the western northern hemisphere. (Hit the higher loop speed button for a nicer presentation, on the left side.) The actual cloud producing region is about 1000 miles SE of HI now. Quite nice. You can see that it is also feeding clouds into our little baby low off southern California.

OK, REALLY idle speculation above. But, based on only a gut feeling, I think the Pac jet slam will shift farther S again in model runs, and that AZ will benefit from the incoming storms and not be completely dry as the last model run showed from last night. Recall, too, however, that I am biased toward precip, and feeling a little chastened by the disappointing run.

OK, enough!

OK to talk about a chance of rain again

With the New Year getting underway and all the excitement about the a possible economic rebound, I felt I couldn’t inform you that the model runs had gutted any chance of that rain here in Catalina in the next two weeks since the last post entitiled, “Return of the cutoffs followed by a Pac blast.” I know you’re happy, too, when you hear about a chance of rain in Arizona, and I would have made you feel bad after raising your hopes like that.

At that time, model outputs, as far as the “Pac blast” went, were fluctuating wildly, but were at least consistent at that time showing a chance of a decent rain this Friday from a cutoff low dribbling down the West Coast. That low was then supposed to “orbit” off Baja for a day or so, and then drift across southern Arizona and over my house, with rain with it.

Well, it ALL went away in subsequent model runs!

It was awful; I couldn’t bring myself to tell you about these dry forecasts, thus reversing myself and appearing to be wrong at the same time.

Perhaps I was being irresponsible as a weather discusser and I apologize. No TEEVEE weather presenter would go silent for several days after telling you rainy things were on the horizon and then, with those days getting closer and the prediction changing to dry days ahead, not update you.

So, why didn’t I give you the bad news?

First of all, I didn’t want to hurt your feelings by saying something that wasn’t going to happen anymore, something you read here and counted on. Perhaps I was being overly considerate.

And, also I remained silent because when the models have a great deal of “eracticity”, (i.e., huge fluctuations) such as they do with cutoffs, and certainly as they were having about where that Pac jet would bash the West Coast (would it be Juneau, AK or San Francisco?), sometimes its best to “stay the course” (hmmm, sounds like a political slogan). Sometimes, when models fluctuate as they were, things resolve themselves in the direction that you are biased in (occurrences of rain), and YOUR OWN PRIOR FORECAST! So its best to hang on (in silence). ((That’s really what I was hoping for, to pull out an erroneous writeup at the last minute.))

And today is the day! I can smile again, self esteem climbing that bit, because I can now present you with some chances of rain again. I don’t even have to mention those awful dry, contrary model solutions (“solutions”, hah!) that would have made you sad.

Check these out from IPS Meteostar’s rendition of the WRF-GFS model run from just last night for this coming Sunday night, about 11 PM LST. Note green blob in SE AZ! (OK, the rain comes on Sunday not Friday as mentioned earlier, a mere forecasting peccadillo):

The “Pac blast ” (where the incoming jet stream impacts the West Coast has shifted southward again in this latest model run as seen below for Sunday afternoon, Jan 23rd, in those reddish areas that denote the heart of the jet stream, shown over northern California.

As lows and waves accompanying that flow cruise into the Coast, some precip is shown in the northern third of AZ. I think we can do “better” in the days ahead than just a tiny bit of precip north of Flagstaff a couple of times. Hope so anyway.

The End.

Return of the cut offs followed by a Pac blast

While waiting for the to the 10-15 day forecast to resolve itself, most reliably experienced by having those days that used to be two weeks away get here, we can get a more reliable fix on the next few days to a week.

Take a look at these WRF-GFS model forecasts based on last evening’s global measurements of 500 mb flow rendered by IPS Meteostar:

In looking at those, its pretty remarkable that the “weather” has remembered to place some cut off lows down in the SW as it was doing off and on throughout November and December, ones that helped our rain and snow totals zoom above average! Like a sad love affair you can’t get out of your mind, one that keeps coming back to remind you how bad it was, the weather, too, in something we weatherfolk call “persistence,” tends to keep coming back to the same pattern, even after long breaks like our recent three week sunny malaise, in which I thought the cut off pattern had been forgotten about. In the first panel for tomorrow, an elongated bend in the winds is passing over Arizona. Then part of that “trough” shears off into a circular whirl over eastern New Mexico and west Texas. Cut off magic!

This is followed by another dollop of the jet stream that breaks away from over the Pacific NW (that bend in the winds in the second panel up there), shears off from the main current, and ends up as a whirl over southern Arizona by next Friday. the 13th. As you know, ones in that position have a lot of promise for providing a decent rain, such as the 0.25 to half inch we’ve gotten out of several of the prior cut offs in that position. The first trough is too dry and goes by too fast (tomorrow the 8th) to produce rain except well east of us. We’ll only see the temperature plummet.

So, here we are again in the cut off regime, at least in the week ahead.

Pac blast

Beyond our little cut off low spell, the models are starting to rev up the central Pacific flow that breaks into northern and central California, flow that would be associated with tremendous rains (ones you will read about it in the newspapers) if it happens like this. And in this latest model run, some of that rain dribbles into Arizona (on Friday, the 19th) with SEVERAL more chances for AZ rain in quick succession after that during this Pacific blast that rips into the West Coast in the days ahead. The change in circulation is stunning! Below is an example of what is predicted to happen by Sunday, the 21st of January, of one of my favorite patterns whilst growing up in southern California. Overall, the rains begin to move into northern California on the 15th.

However, from the prior harangues you also know that these model forecasts have had an unusual degree of “eracticity”; can’t be relied on too much, especially with regard to the placement of that incoming jet into the West Coast. It will be interesting to see how this turns out (as always!)

However, it was a nice model gesture to show rain in AZ from this Pac blast this time around.

Weather 10 days from now remains uncertain

Hahahahah. That is the funniest thing I have thought of in a long time, and its not that funny. Take a look at this “spaghetti” plot for 10 days from now based on last night’s global data. The map is for 500 mb, about 15,000 to 20, ooo feet above sea level.

“High predictability”, even as far as 1o days out, is indicated by those areas where the bluegreen and red lines are all close together. For example, in the upper left hand corner, or in eastern Asia and the extreme western Pacific Ocean if you can make those areas out through all the lines. Also, both the red and bluegreen lines themselves are pretty close together there, and that says the jet stream is extremely strong there, normal for that region in wintertime. That jet stream is geographically anchored in that region and so not much changes there, even from winter to winter.

But then look what happens to that compact jet stream as it approaches the middle of the Pacific! It comes apart, line a twisted speaker wire that’s been untwisted. The bluegreen lines, representing a colder portion of the jet stream, mostly head off to the NE, while the red lines, indicating a warmer portion of the jet stream, split off and continue more or less toward the east across the Pacific and into the Southwest. However, the details of both flows, the northern one and the southern warmer one, are pretty unknown, as evidenced by all the “scatter” in the lines, the “bowl of rubber bands” you see in the east half of the Pacific and into North America (and elsewhere). Note that the lines are tending to group that bit more over the eastern US, suggesting higher predictability, and the presence of an upper level trough (and cold in the East).

For the sake of contrast, here is the same kind of plot for just 48 h from now, showing high predictability. Of course, things always go to HELL in the longer term, but today’s 10 day vagaries are more than usual.

So, what seems to be ahead for sure is a split in the jet stream in the eastern Pacific with one of the branches coming toward us. That is the good part since that branch can be pretty wet if it is strong. But, as you can see, exactly where it is, and that’s crucial, is really anyone’s guess at this point. That warmer jet has to be south of us to have any rain with the disturbances that are shuttling along in it. And if you look over AZ, the red lines of the warmer jet are all over the map, literally.

Hence, to use an old word there, particularly uncertain times ahead. In fact the only thing that is certain, is with the southern branch of the jet in this area, there will at least be passing regions of clouds as upper air troughs go by. Will they, like yesterday, only be Cirrus? Or rainy Nimbostratus?

The second shot shows a nice “parhelia” or “sun dog” at the far right, caused by plate-like ice crystals falling face down, the normal mode. The final shot has some the rarely seen Cirrus castellanus, Cirrus clouds with little turrets or humps at the top.

Its not worth mentioning…

…so I wasn’t going to say anything, but last night’s model run based on the 5 PM LST global data went into a dry mode for AZ over the next two weeks, sucking up all that rain that was predicted in a run just SIX HOURS before the run last night (shown on the left), and all those runs before that one! Feeling like the model has punched me in the gut. It was like having your favorite’s team running back score the winning touchdown with a minute left on a 79-yard run, only to be called back due to a holding penalty. Or, in the World Series, the Cubs have just won the deciding game on a homerun in the ninth inning, but then it turns out that the batter hit out of turn and it was an out instead. Well, you get the idea.

Check the differences out between these two for the same time and day, Friday morning, January 20th from IPS Meteostar . Its incredible. That juicy, wet stream from the subtropics into California (right image) is completely gone in a forecast made just 6 h later!

Unfortunately, the new run with nothing but an upper ridge along the West Coast, and a deep trough in the East, is a favorite mode of the Great Southwest Rain Repeller, La Nina. In spite of the WILD fluctuations in model outputs over the past few days, you would have to give this latest one from last night’s global data some credibility. Its as though the model just woke up after all those predicted rainy scenarios in AZ and said, “I can’t do this, its La Nina time!”

However, with all these fluctuations, rainy scenarios for AZ may still come back. Standing by, if a bit grumpily. Maybe there’ll be some Cirrus clouds today to ease the pain. Let’ look at a national satellite view from the bowl record-setting University of Washington Huskies’ weather department here: Yep, a little band of Cirrus approaching from southern Cal. Should be here in time for a nice sunset.

Don’t forget, too, those Cirrus clouds are usually the way the tops of winter storms appear, one with vast layers and produce hours of rain at a time, if you could slice off the topmost 1-2 km (about 1,000 to 2,000 yards, or about the same amount of yardage as given up by my former company’s (i.e., Washington’s) football team in the Alamo Bowl this December 30th).

Remembering that about Cirrus representing the tops of storms if we could only see them will help us get through today’s model disappointment I think.

Some more of that Catalina climo

Here is a 35 year record showing what days have had measurable rain in January. Sometimes “singularities” in weather show up in these kinds of charts of tempearture or precipitation, such as the “January thaw” that seems to occur with some regularity in the East but is “unexplained.” You would be looking at our chart for Catalina for example, a cluster of days with higher or lower precipitation and it MIGHT be a singularity, something that Nature likes to do at that time of the year rather than a statistical fluke that represents nothingness. Here’s January, a month that averages 1.65 inches in Catalina. These data are almost totally due to the careful measurements made at Our Garden organic orchard here in Catalina–only the last few years here are from measurements on East Wilds Road.

Not much to see here. That peak on the 6th looks more like a fluke rather than a singularity. You would never say that one day represents a singularity, but maybe 5-10 days.

The reason why I wanted to see this was because of the striking changes that were foretold by the “WRF-GFS” model 36 h ago and were shown here yesterday. Was there a singularity that might support a greater chance of rain in SE AZ in mid-January, and therefore, cast that bit more credibility on such a huge model change?

I would have to say “no.” And, not surprisingly, that huge change has gone bye-bye in the models. Nothing like it is shown now, though they do have a rain situation developing for here by the end of the 15 day run (around January 20th and beyond). But this rain comes out of the lower latitudes of the Pacific, a completely different direction than was shown just yesterday, and if the models are correct in this pattern breakdown, it means flooding in California as the flow breaks through to the coast from the Pacific.

Below, what the models came up with based on last night’s global data, again, from IPS Meteostar, whose renderings I favor.

These are exciting times for those of us who peruse the models.

Why?

These vast changes indicate that there is something far, far upwind, perhaps a data sparse zone, errors in reported measurements that is causing a problem for the models and that more changes in their outputs may come down the line until that problem is better “resolved.” (They are never perfectly resolved.)

So, every 6 h update of the models is a “must see”, with the persuser (me) holding his breath with excitement. In these cases, its all “good” because a rain situation is foretold for us. Take a look at where the jet stream is compared to where it is now, up around British Columbia. You can see it barging into southern California and major rains ALWAYS accompany this pattern. Also, you can probably count on at least two storms breaking through before this pattern changes much. The reservoirists in Cal will be very excited to see this pattern develop since most of their holdings have much below capacity. And these kinds of storms usually produce significant rain in Arizona, too, though here we would be a little far south to get the brunt of those storms in this scenario.

Pretty clouds yesterday

Can’t leave without a little cloud excitement. I wonder how many looked up and saw this little beauty go by (shown below)? So pretty and delicate-looking, as unusually thick virga (snow) fell from this little cluster. It would be called, “Cirrus uncinus” at this stage.

That snowfall probably began developing one-two hours before it came over us, and the cloud patch would likely have been fluffed up on top that bit and as a mostly liquid water cloud, that is, an “Altocumulus castellanus” before becoming this “uncinus.”

Below we saw the dying remnants of that patch, the snow to finally stop falling out with the parent cloud mostly gone, and that snow continuing to dry up on the way down. Lots of nice cloud sights yesterday, in fact.

Enjoy.