Good morning to the both of you who reads this blog. Expect 0.10 inches or less Sunday night. Clouds? This is going to be a great photogenic day, both today and tomorrow as delicate patterns of high and middle clouds race over us in advance of this little system carried by those increasing winds aloft. Charge your camera batteries!
Model harrangue, northern Cal flood ahead, surfer note
Mods behaving well today except for the truculent 00 Z run of the USA WRF-GFS one, one that in this arthur’s opinion, has a “WARM BIAS” in that run. For some reason, and I am more inclined now to REALLY think it is due to a “bad balloon” somewhere WAY upwind, the warmth over Arizona and the whole friggin’ West Coast is enhanced on that 00 Z run from earlier and later model runs. The jet stream on the 00 Z runs shifts northward that bit as the warmth increases over us.
But then, in a model updated run just 6 h later, it is gone, the atmosphere gets that bit colder, the jet stream that bit farther S, and things stay that way in the 12 Z and 18 Z runs.
What this means for rain and such here is that lately the 00 Z model run takes future rain away, rain that has been on other model runs before that one. But then it comes back again. I am mainly referring to rain predicted beyond 7 days. I have not yet discerned a lessening of rain for those events in the immediate future.
OK this is clearly more than you or maybe anyone wants to know, but I would, if I were you, pooh-pooh the 00 Z run and look at the ones around that time for chances of rain here beyond a week or so. OK, that’s my hypothesis.
Here are examples of model outputs from two different runs, again from the folks at IPS Meteostar, comparing the output from last night’s 00 Z run with the one that came afterward at 06 Z. The first two panels are the only ones beyond this next Monday that have ANY rain in AZ in the 15 days ahead of today. Unless you have a microscope trained on these images, you’ll have to click on them (does same thing as a microscope) to see those itty bitty patches of green representing an area where rain is supposed to have fallen in the prior 6 h, ending at map time. Gee, hope you got that.
Below these two “bad” ones from the 00 Z run, are two “good” images for about the same time as those first shown.
Look at all the AZ green now! These are great predictions for lots of precip in AZ in 10 days or so. It even takes longer for the rain to move on from AZ, hence, why I show four panels of precip below.
This is goofy, shouldn’t happen, but it is and I don’t REALLY know why, but of late that AZ drying in the 00Z run has been happening pretty regularly.
Floody Oregon and northern California still ahead beginning on Tuesday
For storm chasers, a really nice place to be would be, say, Shelter Cove, CA, and somewhere in the King Range just north of there. The mountains rise up from the seashore to over 4,000 feet and face the southwest. In these situations, ones where the Pac jet breaks through under a big blocking high in the Gulf of Alaska, something that will begin on Tuesday, rains of over 10 inches a day are pretty common.
Surfer note: Expect giant waves as well along northern Cal and Oregon coasts after about Wednesday. Here they come!