Boffo Christmas time storm

A possible great storm has been able to make it through all the model calculations intact for a few model runs now.  Spaghetti tell us its in the bag that something big is coming to all of the Southwest around Christmas Day and just after.  Check it out:

Valid 5 PM AST, Christmas Day.  Giant SW trough then guaranteed.  If it stays in a "U" pattern, like will be cold enough to snow here on the 26th.  If it cuts off and becomes spinning top, as the latest models are suggesting, may not snow, but likely would produce a lot precip, maybe an inch or more because it would take so long to go by.
Valid 5 PM AST, Christmas Day. Giant trough  in the SW guaranteed. If it stays in a “U” pattern (as shown above), likely will be cold enough to snow here in Catalinaland on the 26th. If it cuts off and becomes a spinning top, as the latest models are suggesting, may not snow, but likely would produce a lot precip, maybe an inch or more because it would take so long to go by.  Spinning top formations tend to dawdle, have a mind of their own.

8 thoughts on “Boffo Christmas time storm”

  1. Great to see you back, Art! I was wondering where you went. Anyway, intresting times weatherwise: Similarly to your area, here we are seeing a lot of snow on the mountains through the next several days, which is so much better than what happened last year. It seems El Nino is behaving more like La Nina at this time!

  2. Hi, Roland,

    Thanks for your comment. There are some personal issues with health in the family that are making things a little more somber these days, and some sci projects I need to do before “exiting” myself. So likely will be a little remiss on creating posts in the near future.

    Quite a violent time ahead for the West Coast in the coming days (http://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/animate_e.html?id=4pan-00).

    You are so right about this El Niño Grande, doesn’t really look like one, though the lesser Niño of 1951-52 had a winter of cold storms in the West; Los Angeles had 26 inches of rain that winter!

    CM

    1. Hi Art! It’s Byron (Monsoon) Marler here. Re. El Nino — when? A brief study of past very strong El Nino events (only 3 cases in this category last 50 years) indicates the west coast (Ca) action gets started during the first 2 weeks of January — and not before. One case kicked in around the 2nd, another about the 10th and one on about 15th. Of course 3 cases are not much to get into a rant about. Used Sacramento data, so Arizona could be different. B

      1. “Monsooon” Marler! Wow! Everytime I pick up my guitar, I am thinking of Byron, and those days in the San Jose State lab, well, maybe it was only that one day, with McGinley. That was so much fun. (I am still a beginning novice, really just plunk along with songs, but, its fun–when I have time.)

        I do remember the prior monster, “El Niño Grande”, in ’97-98, and was thinking, as were many of us, “What a dud”, until the onslaught began in late January and did not let up until sometime in JUNE! UCLA, for example, got 24 inches of rain in just the short month of February! That amount really stood out for me.

        So, this next cold system might be just some extra icing on the mountain snow cake here in AZ until the real “Grande” kicks in. Our aquifers can use, “extra icing.”

        Sorry, too, I did not send you a copy of the SJS lab basement tape I said I would 20 years ago: “They Came Out of the West”, Marler, McGinley & Rangno, real weathermen with strums that no one had ever heard before, ones that (would have) shook up the music industry in the 1960s, if anyone had ever heard them… 🙂
        Great to hear from an old pal!

        a

        1. As I recall, I beat out some hot percussion on a metal wastebasket, McGinley played lead guitar, and you provided the rythm guitar and belted out the lyrics! Yes, we could have made it big — but we stayed true to our love of meteorology — and made it anyway. And speaking of meteorology, today we’re getting a prelude to the (hopefully) future El Nino action in San Diego area, it’s coming down in sheets! B

  3. Hi Art; It’s nice to see you have other people besides just me commenting on your blog. Actually, just wanted to briefly respond to what your other respondant said about El Nino: I agree for the most part with him that E.N. usually doesn’t show it’s real charachter until January. However, every E.N. has a somewhat different “signature” and maybe(just maybe) this one will not deliver the expected patterns in the coming months. Just look at how mild the NE of your country has been of late, for example.

    1. Yes, I now have three people that occasionally view this site.
      Still in limbo due to computer issues.

      Yes, that’s right, all Niño are different, that’s for sure, and I hope this one comes through in the months ahead. December here is going to end up much below the 1.86 inches average.

      a

      1. Forgot to mention, “boffo” storm hit NM, not AZ. So, astronomically speaking, just very tiny error, indeed!

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