Catalina Beach State Park; Canadians come up with a winner!

Its been this way for quite a while, actually since the big rains of late January, but I only found out about it yesterday:  “Thousands Gather Under Cloudy Skies for Beach Fun at Catalina State River and Beach Park !” (if one were writing a newspaper headline).  See below.

2:40 PM.
2:40 PM.  Here, dozens of kiddies are seen frolicking in the water of the Sutherland River at Catalina State Park.
2:44 PM.
2:44 PM.  Soft Cumulonimbus capillatus  and calvus turrets line the distant SW horizon while hundreds frolic in sand and water at Cat State Park.
2:46 PM. A man of Indian descent named, "Ricky" prepares his daughter for sand castle construction.
2:46 PM.  “Ricky” (real name, “Parikit”), who also happened to work in the SAME lab office as the writer for a few years,  prepares his daughter for the popular beach activity of sand castle construction.

Before reaching the beach at the State Park, saw some luxuriant spring undergrowth among the trees, and a nice Cumulus turret, one that went on to grow up and be a weak Cumulonimbus:

1:51 PM. Typical of the lush grass growth along the Birding Trail at Cat State Park, also due to the generous January rains.
1:51 PM. Typical of the lush grasses along the Birding Trail at Cat State Park, also due to the generous January rains.
2:21 PM. Nice.
2:21 PM. Nice.  Altocumulus clouds (upper left) lurk around a Cumulus congestus turret over the Catalinas.
3:36 PM. A remarkably summer-like sky, Cumulus congestus in the foreground, Cumulonimbus capillatus cloud lining the SW horizon. Temperature, 70 F.
3:36 PM. A remarkably summer-like sky, Cumulus congestus in the foreground, Cumulonimbus capillatus cloud lining the SW horizon. Temperature, 70 F.

 

The weather ahead, as you and I both hope it will be

Been a lot of phony storms in the 10-15 day range indicated by the WRF-GOOFUS model, ones presented here with regularity, then ended up jilting us.    So,  today when the Canadian model came up with an appreciable rain pattern for AZ in only SIX days, Feb. 21, it was time to exult, switch models,  and climb back up on the blog saddle:

Valid at 5 PM AST, Saturday, February 21st. Based on the global observations taken at 5 PM last evening. AZ covered in rain!
Valid at 5 PM AST, Saturday, February 21st. Based on the global observations taken at 5 PM last evening. AZ covered in rain!

What’s even better in this map is that the rain has only begun on the 21st.  As you can see, the bunching of the contours off the Cal and Oregon coasts and west of the center of the low, upper left panel, tells you immediately that more rain would be ahead for us if this configuration is correct.  That’s  because the low will propagate southward, and closer to us, not move off in some untoward direction with a stronger wind field on the back side than on the front (east) side.  Also, in a pattern resembling the Greek letter, “Omega1“ as we have in the eastern Pacific and West, lows like to nest in the SE corner of the “Omega”, getting cutoff, stagnant, out of the main jet stream flow, all of which prolongs bad weather in that sector of an “Omega” (here in the SW US).  So, lots to be optimistic about today.  Strong support in spaghetti for this Omega pattern, too.

Now I haven’t looked at the US WRF-GFS model based on the same obs because it might have something different, a storm that’s not as good as the Canadian one,  and I don’t want to know about it.  Still feel pretty hurt by the big storm presentations for AZ that weren’t very sincere in that model.  And, as we know, sincerity is mandatory in a relationship, even one with weather maps.

The End

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1Link added in case you don’t believe me again.

By Art Rangno

Retiree from a group specializing in airborne measurements of clouds and aerosols at the University of Washington (Cloud and Aerosol Research Group). The projects in which I participated were in many countries; from the Arctic to Brazil, from the Marshall Islands to South Africa.