Five days of rain ahead; interpreting probability forecasts

Five consecutive days of afternoon and, or, evening rains are ahead.  If you don’t believe me, go here, to the University of Washington’s model run from last night‘s GLOBAL data, showing where the rain areas will be (in color!) every three hours for the next FIVE days. You will see that EVERY afternoon and evening… Continue reading Five days of rain ahead; interpreting probability forecasts

Another big day; scattered amounts around us of more than THREE inches again; we only got 0.18 inches!

Trying to be excited for those around us who got all that rain yesterday while we received a paltry 0.18 inches here in the upper reaches of Catalina.  Still it was another good little rain for our local desert. The 24 h rolling archive from Pima County rainfall gages is here.  Most seen here?  2.01 inches… Continue reading Another big day; scattered amounts around us of more than THREE inches again; we only got 0.18 inches!

Grazed and confused

Man, its tough to get rain here sometimes.  Not sure why we seem to be in a death zone for Cumulonimbus clouds lately.  Yesterday, a really great shower plodded toward Catalina and only to fade on the east side, and propagate off to the west and over the Tortolita Mountains (veered down the sideline, in… Continue reading Grazed and confused

Yesterday’s drama, forecasting for picnics, etc.

In case you missed it, and you probably did because you were still in bed while I was doing things for you, there was a pretty sunrise to start the day yesterday, one that would not disappoint later by being a dry one.  After all, we’re here in the peak of our summer rain season.… Continue reading Yesterday’s drama, forecasting for picnics, etc.

Looking for rain in all the wrong places…like here in Catalina

Another dry day yesterday, a tough one to take, since it appeared that rain hereabouts was a virtual certainty. All the model runs I saw from the U of AZ had good rains at times on the Catalinas yesterday afternoon and into the evening, as they do again for today.  Here’s one U of A… Continue reading Looking for rain in all the wrong places…like here in Catalina

Thundery trace; expect more than that today

(A note:  I am not getting WYSIWYG in what I am writing and what is posted in WP.  This is SO FRUSTRATING!  True I am a bit of an amateur at WP,  but those spaghetti plots that start the blog are SUPPOSED TO BE AT THE END OF IT as I see them in the… Continue reading Thundery trace; expect more than that today

68 F dewpoint in Catalina now; 0.31 inches overnight

68 F dewpoint at TUS, too.  With this kind of dampness, it should be an exciting day with clouds topping the Catalinas, and you know when that happens, its another sign of really heavy rain in the area.  In fact, we have a little strip of Stratus fractus along the base of the Catalina’s now… Continue reading 68 F dewpoint in Catalina now; 0.31 inches overnight