6:52 AM. Altocumulus cloudlets over and east of the Catalinas.6:52 AM. Sprinting to the other side of the house, this spectacular scene of virga falling from Altostratus. Breathtaking!6:53 AM. To the NW, the virga roiled downward into mammatus bulges under lit by the sun.6:54 AM. The color was fading just in a minute or two, but it was still a breathtaking panorama I thought you should see.
Some additional commentary about these scenes. One of the remarkable things about clouds, a real unknown, is how clouds such as Altocumulus (1st photo) can get so cold, colder than it was this mid-November in Wyoming, and can remain all or mostly water drops, which is what you are looking at in those cloudlets over and beyond the Catalinas. Pretty amazing. This phenomenon has been known about for decades, but not fully explained. We expect to see a lot of ice in clouds with tops colder than -30 C (-22 F) as you might imagine.
Here’s the sounding near the time of these photos, with writing on it:
———-Begin learning module———————————-
The Tucson balloon sounding, launched around 3:30 AM AST yesterday morning.
As a CMJ, you need to be armed with explanations if, on a morning walk, your neighbor, at first overwhelmed by the morning beauty, but then instead of being quiet, goes on to ask, “Hey, aren’t those clouds composed of droplets; they must be pretty low and warm?”
Since you’ve already seen the TUS sounding for the hours just before this, you know those cloud bottoms are real cold and high, -26 C, and 19,000 feet above you here in Catalina, and tops are really cold, about -32 C (-26 F), you cringe. What to say? How do you explain clouds that can sit there at -32 C and develop little or no ice, while knowing that Cumulus clouds, ones whose tops have never been colder than -7 C, can be completely composed of ice just after reaching up to that temperature?
—————-End of learning module, such as it was———————
Here’s another example from yesterday of extremely cold clouds with few ice crystals:
9:36 AM. Altocumulus perlucidus opacus (sun’s position is not detectable). The TUS sounding for the morning would not be valid at this time since the cloud bases were slowly lowering but they would still be about -20 C at this time, height about 17,000 feet above ground level. And, at this temperature, such clouds are ultraripe for ice production by aircraft that may flay threw them. See next photo for a POSSIBLE aircraft production of ice in these cold clouds.
10:43 AM. Of course, all of you were looking for some aircraft perturbation I’m sure, and this seemed “too linear, too uniform, the crystals too small (as deduced by the sloping lines of virga underneath this line for the ice to be natural. No other virga looked like this having straight fine lines underneath, the thing typical of contrails. However, its not the typical ice canal, either, with clearings beginning on the sides. In fact, the cloud seems thicker here where an aircraft may have traversed it, posing an explanatory challenge. Also counter to reason, why would an aircraft fly so far in what would have been light rime icing conditions in those Altocumulus clouds? Lots of questions, no really good answers.
11:07 AM. Linear feature passes over Catalinaland. Was hoping for a drop so I could claim it had rained in November, even if it had been a phony rain.
11:32 AM. Looks phony to me! Not a real cloud. I think we’re looking now at the tube of high concentrations tiny ice crystals that slowly settled out from that Altocumulus layer after an aircraft went through it–this tube to me appears to be BELOW the general layer, due to settling out after a few larger ice crystals fell out first. Am about 60 % sure that’s what happened and caused that linear feature. Getting pretty worked up about, too.
Well, Shakespeare said it: “Much ado about nothing,” so it must be important if he said it.
Had some really nice cloud scenes after the big clearing came through in mid-afternoon:
3:38 PM. Our typical spectacular lighting on the Catalinas scenes as storms move away.
4:49 PM. A dramatic finish to the day; light showers hit south and southwest of Tucson, but faded before arriving here.
There were some light showers that produced as much as 0.20 inches of rain in the south and east parts of Tucson late yesterday afternoon and evening. Nice for them.
The weather way ahead
Nothing in the way of rain in the immediate future. Have to wait until December for any real chances. See this bad boy for December 6-7th, this panel only 360 h from now1!
Valid at 11 PM AST December 6th. Note that the heaviest rain in Arizona is over Catalina! These are totals that accumulated in the 12 h prior to 11 PM AST. Hope I made you that bit happier showing you this. It’s a pretty cold system, too, might be a close call for snow here.
The End.
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1360 h in advance, even using our best model, is about in time like the distance to Betelgeuse in light years. Hence, caution when the writer says, “only.”
Here we go…..some pretty, but also dull, photos, along with some novella-sized captions as mind wandered into the obtuse while writing them.
6:44 AM. Nice sunrise due to Altostratus/Cirrus ice clouds.2:00 PM. Kind of a dull day yesterday, kind of like this blog. Stratocumulus (Sc) clouds topped Samaniego Ridge most of the day, below that gray Altostratus ice cloud layer. But those Sc clouds were too warm to have ice in them, and droplets were too small to collide, stick together, and form misty drizzle. Have to get to at least 30 microns in diameter before they stick to one another. Misty drizzle? Could be a great name for a late night female vocalist doing earthy songs like Earthy Kitt back in the ’50s. “Earthy” was much hotter than global warming.3:29 PM. An Altostratus translucidus to opacus, mostly ice-cloud with a dark patch of Altocumulus droplet cloud blocking the sun. If you look closely, (upper center) you can see a that there’s this Altotratus layer may be topped by a Altocumulus perlucidus droplet cloud layer. Yes, droplet clouds at the top of As where the temperature is lowest? Yep, this counter-intuitive finding happens all the time, up to about -30 C -35 C. Been there, measured that; in aircraft research. Ma Nature likes to form a drop and have it freeze before forming an ice crystal directly from the water vapor.4:40 PM, shot taken as we entered a local restaurant. You’ve got your two layers of Altocumulus, with some Altostratus translucidus above those, filling in the gaps. Gaps? Huh. I am reminded that I have a failed manuscript about “gaps”, these kind; Cloud Seeding and the Journal Barriers to Faulty Claims: Closing the Gaps., rejected by the Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. way back in ’99. It was an instruction manual, in a sense, about how to prevent all the bogus cloud seeding literature that got published in the 1960s through 1980s, and was not only published, but cited by our highest national panels and experts, like the National Academy of Sciences. Amazing, but true. I give examples. You can read about this chapter of science in Cotton and Pielke, 2007, “Human Impacts on Weather and Climate”, Cambridge U. Press, a highly recommended book. That cloud seeding distortion of cloud seeding science was due to many factors, of which perhaps the primary one was, “nobody ever got a job saying cloud seeding doesn’t work1.” This was a great segue. Of course, we have similar stresses on those researchers looking for effects of global warming nee “climate change” now days. Nobody will ever get a job (a renewed grant) saying they can’t find evidence of global warming, “Can I have some more of that money to keep looking?” And beware the “Ides of March” if you criticize published work in that domain! Think of poor Judy C , a heroine to me, and how she’s been vilified for questioning climate things.
5:29 PM, took leave from Indian food there in R Vistoso for this. Its not just anyone who would excuse himself from dinner to do something other than visit the laboratory.
That’s about it. No use talking about the rain ahead again. Seems to be a couple chances between the 20th and the 30th.
The End
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1You can make a cloud snow a little by seeding it with dry ice or silver iodide. This has been shown since the earliest days of experiments. Below, to demonstrate this, an aircraft inadvertently “seeded” this Altocumulus cloud layer. However, whether the small amount that falls out from previously non-precipitating clouds is economically viable is not known. Increasing precipitation due to seeding when the clouds are already snowing/raining has not been satisfactorily proven. As prize-winning stat man, Jerzy Neyman, U of Cal Berkeley Golden Bears Stat Lab would tell you, you need a randomized experiment and followed by a second one that confirms the original results, with measurements made by those who have no idea what days are seeded and evaluations done by those who have no vested interest in cloud seeding. Wow there’s a lot of boring information here. Getting a little worked up here, too.
Ice canal in supercooled Altocumulus clouds over Seattle, bases -23 C, tops -25 C (from PIREPS). Photo by the Arthur.
While waiting for the remnants of former H. Simon to pass over us during the next couple of days, bringing some rain, starting overnight, got distracted while looking to see how many rainfall measuring stations they have in Baja Cal, and found this about the Great O from NASA. Its a pretty fascinating read I thought, which you will also find fascinating. Sure, intense hurricane O’s floody remnants missed us here in Catalina/Tucson, but it did produce some prodigious rainfall on its path across Baja and points northeast from there into NM. NASA’s Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) radar estimates that over the ocean off southwest Mexico that about 33 inches fell over a ten day period while O was meandering around down there with some other disturbances, probably raising sea level that bit. And up to 5 inches per hour was falling in rainbands as it entered Mexico from the Gulf of Cal! O was deemed the strongest hurricane (tied with 1967’s Olivia) to ever hit southern Baja since sat images became available.
You will also see reprised in the “Diary of O” the huge rainfall totals that were expected in the TUS area but rains that missed us, the sad part of the story for some folks, who we will not mention. But, as Carlos Santana said, “Those who do not know history, are doomed to repeat it.”
For that reason, in view of the prodigious rains predicted in southern AZ again, but to the west of us, I thought we should be prepared for disappointment by recalling O’s “terrible” miss for TUS.
Here are some graphics from our very fine U of AZ Weather Department’s Beowulf Cluster computer outputs from just last evening at 11 PM AST, ones that can be found here, in case you don’t believe me again, a seeming theme around here. First, when the computer model thinks it will start raining, Figure 1, and in Figure 2, the expected gigantic totals expected along and near the US border where we really shouldn’t go unless you 1) go in an armored vehicle of some kind, 2) make prior arrangements with the appropriate ruling Mexican drug cartel for that part of the US that you just want to visit some rain, nothing more:
Figure 1. Valid for 2 AM AST tonight. The leading edge of the rain has reached Catalina. You might want to stay up for that. That wet desert aroma as rain begins is so awesome!Figure 2. Valid for 3 PM tomorrow afternoon. One small, mountainous area around Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument is forecast have more than TEN inches by then, likely slowing the amount of incoming drugs. Organ Pipe Cactus NM is a US national park that you are warned not to visit, or if you do, you might be shot or have some other untoward happenstance if you go hiking. So you probably shouldn’t drive down there to see this once in a century rain. How sad is THAT?
Right now, as of 4 AM AST on Thursday, this model thinks Catalina and vicinity will get less than half an inch. Be prepared for more, though, rather than less. Note the streamer of heavy precip associated with Simon in Figure 2. Well, recall that O’s heavy precip streamer was going to be right over us, but then shifted eastward in the models and in real life at the last minute. The above prediction would only have a bit of a “westward bias” (the real streamer is EAST of where its shown now) to give TUS and vicinity a memorable, drenching October rain. This is what occurred with O’s streamer of torrential rain which was expected to pass over TUS, but ended up a little east of us. So, anyway, given all the little uncertainties in model predictions at this point, the watchword here is “watch out” which is actually two words. The view from here, incorporating a positive rain bias as you know, is somewhere around an inch for Catalina. The grassy green is gone, most annuals in serious wilt or crispy now, but could an inch bring some green back? Clueless on that score.
Yesterday’s Clouds
6:06 AM. Nice Cirrus sunrise, maybe some Cirrocumulus at far right, and off on the left horizon.
5:05 PM. Altostratus translucidus with an Altocumulus layer on the horizon.
5:07 PM. A “classic” view of Altostratus translucidus (sun’s position can be discerned through it), and here, an all ice path to the sun. Liquid cloud elements would appear as dark flakes, or would obscure the sun’s position. Sounding indicated that this layer was 26 kft above the ground in Catalina!
Old Man O is kind of a mess now. Still hoping for half an inch here in Catalina/Sutherland Heights, but now even wonder it that will materialize as O goes by today and tonight. Darn!
But, even though O MIGHT be a rain disappointment here in Catalina, there are plenty of opportunities to get substantial rains AFTER O goes by due to lingering tropical air combined with the presence of an upper low pressure center along the Cal coast in the days ahead. Cloud Maven Person thinks (of course, as an “unofficial weather thinker”) that more rain will fall in the spotty thunderstorms here in the Catalina area in the five or so days after O than in O today. We shall see, won’t we?
However, before moving along, let us examine in the colorfully annotated map below those results produced by the truly great thinker inside the “Beowulf Cluster” at the University of Arizona’s Dept of Atmospheric Meteorology to compare the dinky amount CMP is dreading. Its only fair.
Shown below is more like a heavenly rain here, some 1-2 inches is predicted to fall over a number of hours, not in one dump. Hoping for what is shown below, but think it will be quite a bit less.
Total rain accumulation in the 24 h ending at midnight tonight, most will fall in the late morning to evening hours. This map from the model run at 11 PM AST last night, the very latest available. The reddish areas represent where the model thinks the center of O will go with its central heavier rains. Notice that it thinks some little areas of Mexico inland from the Gulf will get a mind-boggling TEN inches or more!
Besides, rather than having completely cloudy skies, as today’s sky will likely be, those heavy guys in the days ahead will be far more “photogenic” you might say with their black shafts and sparks. Rainrates will be greater, too, in those situations than from O’s clouds, which are a little too stratiformy and all mixed together for the blinding rains we see in our thunderstorm rain shafts. Also, since O’s little circulation will pass just to the east of us, the flow off the Catalinas will be a little downhill from the east, which helps to reduce what we might get here, too.
In contrast to the semi-steady rains of O later today, our summer thunderstorms can drop an inch or even two in 15 minutes (yep, its been recorded in gauges). The flooding rains we had a week ago last Monday, the rates were 1-2 inches. Makes quite a difference in erosion.
—-rambling aside below—-
Its interesting to me, stepping aside from direct weather commentary into a more philosophical one, how the story of O resembles life in general as happens to all of us growing up. All of the promise that O had for producing heavy, but mostly beneficial, rains here in Arizona, has been reduced, like that of a youngster growing up that gets straight A’s in the 7th grade, 8th grade, but then loses all of his focus when puberty hits and notices all those wonderful, endlessly intriguing, fascinating, “can’t take my eyes off of you”, creatures around you that seemed so boring and non-existent just a few years earlier. But now they have become the greatest conundrum in all of life! Instead studying, you, as I did, began making jokes in class as a way of getting the opposite sex (!) to notice you because you didn’t have any other social skills to interact with “girls” with. And, like me, you started getting kicked out of class and sent to the principal’s office for causing distractions. THESE humiliations after all those straight A’s and accolades we got from teachers just a year or two earlier. All of our promise, like O’s, dissipated: you’ve discovered that you’re a Saffir-Simpson Category 5 heterosexual, to continue a tropical theme here.
The life of O has been just like that; the once proud storm, so organized, so full of rain potential for Catalina, became “distracted”, disorganized, and torn apart by mountains, vagaries in the topography and lack of warm water to feed on. O’s life reflecting our own lives when hormones hit, blind siding us, deflecting us from the productive lives we thought were ahead but instead into poor grades and lack of self-control, which meant we had to go to a community college instead of real college. And even then, when you find you have a Spanish class there with Miss Wisconsin of 1961, the distractions and poor grades continue… You can’t even get into UCLA after seven years of JC!
Yes, O’s story IS the story of every man. Believe me, I understand what you went through and how hard it was to dissipate so much promise early in life, as tropical O has likely done for us here in Catalina.
One size fits all it seemed yestserday, but I am giving you three anyway, so here they are, your cloud day.
8:03 AM. Light rain falls on the Catalinas and on Catalina, producing about a tenth of an inch here. The lack of variation in the rain intensity (“shafting” as we say here) along the mountains reflects small variations in the height of cloud tops; rain from stratiform clouds. The cloud? Nimbostratus.1:56 PM. Those deep Altostratus/Nimbostratus clouds, typically with tops at CIrrus levels (30 kft or more), moved off after the rain ended, leaving Altocumulus opacus droplet clouds to continue the gray day.
4:41 PM. A few drops were falling off toward Tucson from this mostly ice Altostratus layer; some Altocumulus in the upper left corner, and in the distance.
Unless the younger folks watch Turner Classic Movies or something like that, they will be clueless about what ther the reference to “dialing” is in the title. Oh, well. Heck, who even remembers what a Walkman was these days?
The heavy cloud shield of TS Odile is moving in with some light, spotty rain hereabouts right now. It will be interesting to see if today’s rain amounts to anything. Seems it could be a very Seattle-like rain day with those heavy layer clouds over us (Nimbostratus/Altostratus) and intermittent very light rain all day. Boring! (Is “boring” with an exclamation mark an oxymoron of sorts?)
NWS is excited about Odile, as any meteorologist not having snow in his veins would be, and have posted some daily rainfall records for this week. Of course, we’ve already set some rainfall records for September; can it happen again? They seem to be concerned about that possibility. Many of those September records, as many of you will remember I am sure, were associated with tropical storm Norma that busted into Arizona in early September 1970 as you will see1. Workman Creek got 11 inches in one day back then. You can read about Norma’s doings here and whether the NWS forecasts were adequate.
The meteorological situation was very different with Norma, and that may be why we precipophiliacs could be “disappointed” by rain amounts with Odile–Norma had help from the configuration aloft; Odile not so much. However, in the days following Odile’s passage, that upper level trigger does fall into place over southern Cal, and we’ll have to watch out for some big thunderstorms in the couple of days AFTER Odile goes by when that upper level trigger (trough) still has some tropical air to work with. So, some really “interesting” weather ahead, the kind of weather we’ve forgotten can happen here in the many droughty years we’ve had lately.
Here, just hoping for some nice steady rains, not just sprinkles, that add up to something significant like a half an inch or more, keeping the desert green that bit longer, and maybe, some good scattered thunderstorms for a few days after the big cloud shield of Mr. Odile fades away. That will pretty much do it for our summer rain season I’m afraid.
Now, since we don’t like to do work that can be done better by others, these ones and this one, for example, so on to yesterday’s pretty cloud pictures. (Can’t get over the thought I might be disappointed in Odile’s rain here, expectations not real high, so don’t want to express them and make you a little sad; keeping a lid on thoughts of a big Odile rain for Catalina, don’t want to get too manic, etc.) Will just lay back and enjoy it…whatever comes.
Yesterday’s clouds2
10:00 AM. Cumulus development looked promising in the mid-day hours, but none over the Cat Mountains produced ice. Was surprised that didn’t happen. Note glistening rocks dur to the recent rains.
11:59 AM. Towering Cumulus and Cumulonimbus clouds begin lining the International border. Warning: adult commentary included in photo, the kind you see every day on TEEVEE.
1:18 PM. High cloud shield from Odile’s advance creeps over Tucson from the south. Cumulonimbus clouds can be seen in the extreme distance. 4:06 PM. Cirrus and Altostratus have overspread the sky, and the darkening to the S-SW looks ominous in view of Odile’s approach after wrecking southern Baja.
Followed by a great sunset, one deserving of more than one example. No details, just enjoy.
The End
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1The present Arthur was in Durango starting his first job as a weather forecaster for the great Colorado River Basin Pilot Project, a randomized cloud seeding experiment, when Norma’s remains hit and flooded the Animas River there. I was inside a vaudeville theater listening to the rain pound on the roof, the audience of that melodrama, too, distracted a time or two, and also being distracted by Durango school teacher, Janet James, whom I had taking a liking to. She was there that night, too, but not with me. Wonder what happened to her?
2 Caution: one photo is annotated with adult humor.
We saw some great shafts yesterday, and their content did not disappoint where they landed; 1.61 inches fell at a Saddlebrooke Ranch site, though only 0.06 inches in The Heights. Also, this piece contains a footnote.
8:15 AM. The usual summer Altocumulus perlucidus deck.
10:56 AM. Cumulus begin to form under a layer of Altostratus translucidus. Now some people would call that higher layer “Cirrus”, but remember that in our cloud definitions, only one variety of Cirrus can have gray shading in the middle of the day, and that’s Cirrus spissatus, which besides is in much smaller patches that this. I know its crazy, but there it is.2:19 PM. Some darkening of the sky to the S–SSW toward Tucson. Its best if you don’t look at radar to see if there’s anything down there if you want to enhance your cloud interpreting skill set. Just let it come, if it is. Maybe its a spiral band around H. Norbert! (There was a big line of echoes heading this way….) Not much was going on over the Catalinas.3:01 PM. Earlier darkening not disappointing! “She’ll be comin’ ’round the mountain when she comes”! What a great and dramatic scene this was.3:28 PM. Things are happening fast as the rain shafts from this system tumble down Samaniego/Pusch Ridges! Winds in those shafts likely exceeded 50 mph where you see them racing down those slopes, Nice, promising base forming on this side of the mountains, too.3:56 PM. Stupendous shafts slide along Sam Ridge, while gusty SE winds blow in the Heights, pushing clouds up over and to the north of us.4:05 PM. One of the new cloud bases cut loose, but just to the NE of Sutherland Heights. Oh, me, so close.6:43 PM. Day clouds with an OK sunset on the several layers of debris clouds leftover from those great storms.
The weather ahead….
Just glimpsing the mighty U of AZ mod seems to suggest that there are two more days with substantial rains in the area ahead. Great! So, more great clouds and shafts to shoot, to be a little alliterative there at the end. Charge camera battery. Check weather service and what Bob has to say as well. Haven’t got time to make a good forecast…. hahaha, sort of.
The weather WAY ahead
In the long range, I found this important plot from last night interesting, and I know I speak for you as well:
A true “spaghetti” plot from the NOAA factory based on last evening’s global data. Its valid for Sunday, at 5 PM AST, September 21st.
Now it does appear from this plot that there is a ridge in the future along the West Coast, manifested1 (what a great word) by that hump in all those multicolored lines along the West Coast), a trough in the East (MANIFESTED by the dip in those same lines east of the Rockies). That means that the summer rain season, might actually be extended some instead of ending completely with the current rejuvenation. The summer moisture can extrude farther to the north when a ridge is present in the West. In the daily forecast maps, showers do return to this area after the present tropical regime ends, and that scenario is that bit reinforced by what “spaghetti” says.
The End
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1To sound more erudite, you might use that word today when discussing the outcomes of yesterday’s NCAA college football games with your sports friends. An example: “The Washington Huskies defense is not as good as we had hoped it would be as MANIFESTED by the FIFTY-TWO points in gave up to the Eastern Washington Eagles, a lower division team.”
3:56 PM. A little dessert, another shaft for you, a real good one over there on the Gap.
Thank you, second burst of rain after about 8:15 PM. And what a great total on The Lemmon! Fantastic, unless some roads were washed out. 1.93 inches fell in only an hour up there. 1.85 inches fell in an hour at White Tail over there by the highway.
Catalina Area 1010 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 Golder Ranch Horseshoe Bend Rd in Saddlebrooke 1020 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 Oracle Ranger Stati approximately 0.5 mi SW of Oracle 1040 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.43 Dodge Tank Edwin Rd 1.3 mi E of Lago Del Oro Parkway 1050 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.43 Cherry Spring approximately 1.5 mi W of Charouleau Gap 1060 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.55 Pig Spring approximately 1.1 mi NE of Charouleau Gap 1070 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.87 Cargodera Canyon NE corner of Catalina State Park 1080 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24 CDO @ Rancho Solano Cañada Del Oro Wash NE of Saddlebrooke 1100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.51 CDO @ Golder Rd Cañada Del Oro Wash at Golder Ranch Rd
Santa Catalina Mountains 1030 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.75 Oracle Ridge Oracle Ridge, approximately 1.5 mi N of Rice Peak 1090 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 3.07 Mt. Lemmon Mount Lemmon 1110 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.63 CDO @ Coronado Camp Cañada Del Oro Wash 0.3 mi S of Coronado Camp 1130 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.69 Samaniego Peak Samaniego Peak on Samaniego Ridge 1140 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.94 Dan Saddle Dan Saddle on Oracle Ridge 2150 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 2.72 White Tail Catalina Hwy 0.8 mi W of Palisade Ranger Station 2280 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.59 Green Mountain Green Mountain 2290 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.18 Marshall Gulch Sabino Creek 0.6 mi SSE of Marshall Gulch
Looks like scattered showers today; a typical sequence after something major happens, like last night, is for the atmosphere to compensate with some drier air. So, today should be GORGEOUS in Cumulus clouds that pile up here and there on the mountains, but don’t expect to get shafted unless you’re real lucky. Wider spread rains expected tomorrow….
Yesterday’s clouds, if you care
Of course, you can the whole day in a hurry here, courtesy of the U of Arizona Wildcats Weather Department, in case you’d like to avoid all the cloud blather below….
6:20 AM. I/m calling this Altocumulus. Don’t see any ice falling out here, but some did off to the SW. Being an all water droplet cloud, I hope you were telling anyone that you were with, that, “Hell, this layer will burn off fast” since you know that water droplet clouds are more vulnerable to evaporating in sunlight than ice clouds like Altostratus, or Cirrus. And when this layer burns off fast, the Cumulus will arise in a hurry. Its great that you might have said that.9:13 AM. That layer is mostly gone, and there come the Cu!1:03 PM. The inevitable Cumulonimbus capillatus incus has arisen over there by Kitt Peak. But this photo is special for you because if you look closely, as I know you will, there is also a big dust devil near the Tucson Mountains (center of photo). I’ve noticed a LOT of dust devils form in nearly that same spot where this one is. Must be exciting to live down there!1:30 PM. Another daily benchmark, “First Ice” on the Catalinas. The ragged turret remains on the left have some ice underneath them if you look closely again, as I know you probably will. If you had an aircraft with cloud physics instrumentation and you were looking for the amount ice that formed in those ragged turrets, ones that once looked like the one in the center, nice and puffy, you would best fly toward the bottom of the rags, not at the top since as the droplets in the cloud shrink due to evaporation, the ice-forming stops. Thus sometimes the coldest part of the cloud in those rags has the fewest ice crystals, and more are found lower down, ones that formed by the freezing of those once larger drops, as would be starting to take place in the puffy parts.3:56 PM. The rarely seen pileus cap which I seem to photograph everyday on a Catalina mountain Cumulus congestus cloud top. Very pretty, and SO DELICATE! Things had kind of stagnated as far as Cumulus development went at this point over the Catalinas. Lots of small Cbs, but nothing really shot up, as it was beginning to do to the southwest and west.4:15 PM. Another rarely seen pileus top on a Cumulus congestus converting into a Cumulonimbus calvus; ice in a fading, glaciated turret is visible on the left (that smooth portion). Still, these tops ain’t much in height.5:57 PM. Now the big boys to the SW are approaching with huge “plumes” of Altostratus cumulonimbogenitus–you knew that, though in fading versions it appeared. Note dust plume on the right obscuring part of the Tortolita Mountains. And with their approach, and with the dust plume over there, you could easily figure that the wind was gonna blow pretty hard.6:00 PM. Only four minutes later, the dust was moving in and the wind was blowing from the SW at 25 to 35 mph. When the wind starts up, look up! That wind will be pushing the air over you up, and often existing darken as their tops rise, or new clouds form. Here, and in the next shot, that SW wind is pushing the air up on the slopes of the Catalina Mountains. Was hoping to see the strands start to fall from these bases near us, maybe feel some “rain plops” as we call them, those giant drops first out the bottom, but that didn’t happen here, but over there on Ms. Lemmon and Samaniego Ridge after that. Oh, well.6:06 PM. Another example of the clouds that piled up on the Catalinas as that SW wind was blowing. Wasn’t long after this that Ms. Lemmon was obscured in rain.
Our last cloud chapter was rudely interrupted by drought, with the last “rain”, an embarrassing one, of just 0.01 inches here in Sutherland Heights a week ago. Areas around us, of course, got more.
6:40 AM. “Etched glass” Cirrus fibratus. The flocculent patches (center right) are newly formed ones in which the larger ice crystals that are falling out of the stranded regions, have not yet gotten big enough to fall out, but they will follow that same course.
7:08 AM. CIrrus fibratus/uncinus radiatus, or at least the perspective makes it LOOK like its converging in the upwind direction. Had to pull off for this shot, it was SO NICE!1:32 PM. Surprise of the day was seeing real Cumulus (mediocris) clouds forming over our Catalina Mountains underneath patchy Cirrus and Altocumulus clouds. Note the rarely seen pileus cap cloud, indicating a good updraft.1:32 PM. Close up of the rarely seen pileus cap cloud. Would really like to have been in it, and then feel the bump when the Cu top rises through it!2:04 PM. Nice to see some unexpected shafting around, even if they were weak, indicating the tops were not terrifically high. With bases at the freezing level yesterday (14 kft above sea level), ice would not form until lower than normal temperatures, maybe around -15 C (5 F), but then would increase with each lower temperature. Here guessing were likely around -25 C, 25,000 feet or so above sea level due to the weakness of the shaft. Got a higher later. Very iffy discussion here, but that’s what CMP thinks.4:31 PM. Evening closed out with R— (“triple minus”–hardly noticeable RAIN not drizzle, please) from mid-level clouds, Altocumulus being the lower, lumpy gray patches, and Altostratus Cumulonimbogenitus, being the one producing the sprinkles, not drizzle.
Today’s weather….
Well, its no fun telling folks what they already know, but will say it looks tentatively, relying on the U of AZ 11 PM AST run of last night, like a day similar to yesterday, except a cloudier morning, which I just saw was the case by looking outside right now at 5:49 AM. Cu develop, tops should get cold enough to produce ice-hence-rain and shafting. Hope its measurable today. Also, as you know, moisture levels increase over the next couple of days with substantial rains likely.
In a model curiosity, three consecutive runs of the US WRF-GFS model, beginning with the 5 AM AST, 11 AM AST, and 5 PM AST runs, all from yesterday, had the remains of tropical storm Norbert passing directly over San Diego with substantial rains there. What made it even more likely to happen was that the Canadian model run from yesterday’s 5 PM AST global data, ALSO had the remaining little center of Norbert passing over San Diego, Tuesday, September 9th! Amazing since Norbert is such a tiny feature in our models, at least by the time it gets near San Diego.
As reported here, a month or so ago, the newly discovered oscillation in ocean temperatures, called the “California Niño”, is helping to keep Norbert going longer as it trudges to the NNW just off the Baja coast. Water temperatures off Cal are warmer than usual this summer due to weak onshore flow for the past few months. When the flow is normal, it not only sculpts plants and trees along the Cal coast, but also causes upwelling of COLD water, horrible for beach goers.
Below, examples of wind sculpting1:
Bodega Bay, CA, just north of Frisco, that windy, foggy, “Stratus-ee”, and cold summer city. Note Stratus in the background hwew.rolling in off the cold offshore waters. No summer thunderstorms here! Imagine how awful it would be to live at this spot. Winters are pretty nice, though, often with frequent rains and wind….to balance things out some.
Also near Bodega Bay.
The End.
———————————— 1When a realtor shows you property with scenes like these around it, you don’t want to buy there, even if its not windy that day. If you’re a realtor, you’d want to have bushes and trees like this trimmed up real good. hahaha.
Yesterday was equal to the most potent cloud day that cloud maven person has seen since moving to Catalina in 2008; from clear skies to thunder before 10 AM! Fortunately, in spite of all the incredible cloud scenes around, fine, tall clouds so early in the day, CMP was able to control himself and only take 190 photos yesterday, and will share only a 100 of the best with you.
Kind of lost interest, though, when the sky went gray in Altostratus opacus cumulonimbogenitus after about 3 PM. Didn’t get any rain here, either, which was a disappointment.
Oh, well, “Today is another day”, to paraphrase Scarlet O. And another chance for an isolated TSTM to land on us.
Saw some of the most intense rainshafts that you can see here, likely producing 1.5 to 3 inches over there on the Tort Mountains around 2 PM and thereafter yesterday. Thunder was continuous from it for awhile.
But, in poor little Catalina, not even a drop. Even though Altostratus opacus cumulonimbogenitus (copied and pasted that linguistic monstrosity to keep things moving) did not rain here, there were a few drops that got to the ground from it around James Kreig Park where CMP taking batting practice for some reason with a friend. The balls were winning.
In spite of the boring cloud scene in mid-late afternoon in Altostratus opacus cumulonimbogenitus, the skies were open far to the west and allowed a sunset display that was pretty much unequaled in CMPs experience anywhere. So, though it didn’t rain here, we got a nice light show. Hope you saw it. Go to the end to skip a lot of excess verbage and less interesting photos.
The end of the day, BTW, was ruined when a TEEVEE meteorologist came on during a local news program told his viewers that “drizzle” was falling somewhere in the area. My faced turned red, I clinched my fist, and pounded the dining room table, veins standing out. This is exactly why I don’t watch TEEVEE. Under my watch, he’d have been fired before he got off his next sentence off.
But that’s me, CMP, a person who cares deeply about educational standards. As a public service, once again I begin this blog with a photo of what’s not “drizzle”, its that important. Remember that guy (actually, a world famous prof) I told you about that asked me to leave his office and never come back right after CMP told him that it had been drizzling outside? Q. E. D. (The occurrence of drizzle meant that all of that professor’s peer-reviewed body of work in clouds was in error. OK. enough past interesting personal history… Well, maybe this; told him there was a lot more ice in his clouds than he was reporting before the drizzle comment. You could see why that prof might be “concerned.”
Evidence of a “sprinkle”, or as we would officially call it, RW–, a “very light rainshower”, July 30th, 2010. “Its not drizzle, dammmitall!”, as we say around here. Thanks to JG for this photo.
Drizzle, of course, is fine, CLOSE TOGETHER drops smaller than 500 microns in diameter (0.02 inches!) that almost float in the air. You can get really wet biking in drizzle, and forget about a baseball cap keeping those drops off your glasses. They can barely fall out of a cloud; you have to be real close to the base to even experience them and that’s why drizzle is commonly experienced falling from very low-based clouds along coast lines.
You can tell how much that erroneous report of “drizzle” falling in Tucson affected me in how I am starting this blog with an educational soliloquy instead of jumping into cloud photos.
By now, you’d probably like to skip to the chase, and going to the U of AZ time lapse is a good way to do that. Unfortunately, as the storm hit the campus, the power went out for a couple of hours and you miss a good part of it and end of skipping from the middle of the storm to, let’s hear it, “Altostratus opacus cumulonimbogenitus.” Its great when you can say big terms like that; it’ll make you sound more educated than you probably are!
OK, after LONG diversionary material, a sampling of yesterday’s fabulous clouds, so many will post them as thumbnails so’s I can cram in more, and, that glorious sunset, too:
7:34 AM. Cu already starting!8:27 AM. I’ve already taken a hundred photos! I am beside myself on how these clouds are growing so early in the morning!8:49 AM. Go, baby, go, make some ice.
9:30 AM. Unbelievable, this tower piling up like that over the low Tortolita Mountains, especially since CMP was clueless about an early start to convection like this!9:32 AM. Cu congestus are converting to Cumulonimbus capillatus, the ice machine is on! See writing on photo.9:46 AM. Sprouts! That background turret is far higher, has reached maybe 30 kft, compared to the one in the prior photo. Thunder on the mountain beginning! Unbelievable. What a day this is turning out to be.10:25 AM. Oh, so pretty. Note ice anvil, but little rain has fallen out yet. Watch out below, its a comin’!10:33 AM. Rain on mountains getting closer to Catalina…10:39 AM. Load has dropped, though mainly from the turret on the left shown in that 10:25 AM shot.1:17 PM. Storms to the left of me, storms to the right, stuck in the middle again.1:46 PM. Storms to the left of me, storms to the right, stuck in the middle again. This is a pretty clever shot where it looks like I’m driving and on my way to James Kreig Park and just kind of holding the camera any which way. This storm is toward the Tucson Mountains.1:59 PM. After arriving at James Kreig Park, I see this massive storm over the Torts. Storms on the left of me, storms on the right, stuck in the middle again! Thunder was continuous at this point.5:13 PM. After a couple of hours of BP, and a few sprinkles, or RW–, the sky went dull as the convective roots died and left all this heavy, ice debris cloud (Altostratus opacus cumulonimbogenitus, of course, technophiles). Thought the interesting part of the day was over. Clueless again! See below.6:56 PM. Self portrait in interesting lighting. Kind of goes along with a tendency of megalomania sometimes seen here.6:58 PM. Not a self-portrait, but rather a celebration of lighting.7:03 PM. Words aren’t enough.7:08 PM.7:10 PM. Landscape view.7:11 PM.
Thin Cirrostratus overspread the sky at dinner time from the east, thickening into Altostratus cumulonimbogenitus mammatus (you can breath now), toward the Catalina Mountains and in the direction of Oracle. What a gorgeous sight this was!
While the storms that spawned this icy blob were mostly dead by this time, undercutting Altocumulus castellanus below the mammatus formation (barely visible in the photo below) gave hope that the day was not done as far as rain was concerned. And it wasn’t.
Round about midnight, the wind and one of the more intense lightning shows of the summer crept over the Catalinas and into Catalina, sparks flying. Strikes too close for CM to feel comfortable on the front porch in metal lawn furniture.
Sutherland Heights was watered with 0.18 inches, an OK amount, enough to revive some of the wilting desert weeds of summer. The Cat Mountains, not surprisingly, got the most. Ms. Sara Lemmon got 1.02 inches, Sam Peak, 0.83 inches. Hope they weren’t having an astronomy show at the Sky Center!
You can see the list of Pima County gauges here. LTGICCCCG1 still out there to the distant SSW at this hour, and major rains are still in progress in western Arizona, all good. (Those low lying areas of western Arizona such as along the Colorado River, have a “bi-modal” peak frequency of late evening and early morning rains, btw. Not much happens in the middle of the day to mid-afternoon out there.)
No clouds during the day yesterday, even over Mt. Lemmon, was a surprise, and is rare in my seventh summer here, and is a testimony to how dry the air was aloft over us even with some humidity near the surface. Things quickly changed during the night, and this morning, we’ve got it all, significant humidity at the ground all the way up to Cirrus levels. Perhaps due to the low starting temperatures associated with the rains in the area, the U of AZ mod doesn’t think Cumulonimbus clouds will form over our mountains until late afternoon into the evening hours.
In any case, should be a great day visually; lots going on. Thinning clouds this morning, then the rise of the Cumulus, and we hope, as the mod projects, another blast of rain in the evening and early nighttime hours.
7:26 PM.
6:00 AM. In case you missed it just now, this beauty.
The Weather WAY ahead
The NOAA spaghetti factory still is not showing patterns that are fruitful for generous rains overall in the next 15 days or so. So, anything we get should be considered quite a blessing during this time. Another giant trough is going to affect the East Coast and Midwest (the last one, a couple of weeks ago, brought the coldest July day in the 140 year history of Memphis records where for the first time the high temperature did not reach 70 F in July! Wow.) Those east of the Rockies may well wonder in the times ahead, what happened to summer? Of course, those cool temperatures might well be welcomed in late July and August, but the circulation pattern that brings them is also not so great for summer rains here. Oh, well, hoping for the best.
Sincerely, your CM.
——————– 1Weather text for “Lightning in the cloud, cloud-to-cloud, and cloud-to-ground.” A weather report amended with this comment, LTGICCCCG, was always one of the most exciting that you could see reported from a station, especially if you lived in lightning-deprived areas like California and Washington as did CM.
