Cumulonimbus clouds – Page 9

Best model output for you

Been looking around at quite a number of model runs (well 2, anyway) trying to find the best one for you. Here it is. Its yesterday’s WRF-GFS run that was based on 11 AM AST global data. Has some great rains for us here in Arizona. Those rains, and that incredible hurricane that saunters up the coast of Baja in about ten days, aren’t depicted as well in later model runs, so there’s not much point in showing them. If you want a great, OBJECTIVE forecasting, you know, go to Bob, or the NWS, or wait for Mike L’s detailed one from the U of AZ later this morning! You’re not going to find “objectivity” here when it comes to forecasting rain for a desert region¹. Let’s look at two examples of weather excitement in that now-obsolete-run-but-doesn’t-mean-it won’t-happen-anyway-just-because-its-a little-older-run”¹: 1) Lotta rain in Arizona (that’s a different near-hurricane over there in the SW corner of the map, one that in one model run from Canada, formerly went over Yuma! Sorry Yuma, and all of Arizona, both of which would have gotten, in that event, a bigger dent in the drought than shown below. Oh, well.

2014081818_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_072 — Valid on Thursday at 11 AM AST. Green pixels denote those areas where the model thinks rain has occurred during the prior 6 hours. Most of AZ covered in green pixies! Sweet.

2) Fascinating near-hurricane just off San Diego on the 29th of August, likely surviving so well due to the California Niño mentioned here lately. BTW, this particular hurricane is predicted to be exceptionally large and intense out there when it revs up in a few days, maybe a Category 4 at its peak, looking at some of the model runs. “Let’s go surfin’ now, everybody’s learnin’ how….” The Beach Boys, 1962, sayin’ it like it was for us near-beach bums way back then when the summer hurricanes in the Mexican Pacific sent huge waves poleward on to our southern California beaches, as the one below will².

Valid in ten days. — Valid in ten days, Friday, August 29th at 11 AM AST. Near hurricane brings rain to San Diego. Colored regions now denote where the model thinks it has rained in the prior TWELVE hours (coarser resolution because its not going to be that accurate in the placement of highs and lows anyway, so why waste time over-calculating stuff?

Yesterday’s clouds

What an outstanding, if surprising day it was! After it appeared, in later model runs available late yesterday morning, that the late afternoon/evening bash from the high country wasn’t going to happen after all (producing local glumness), we had a remarkable in situ explosion of cloud tops. Those clouds just erupted from an innocuous, patchy group of Stratocumulus that invaded the sky around 5 PM. Still, even with the early turrets jutting up there, it didn’t seem possible, at 7 PM, there would be much more growth into showers, let alone, thunderstorms with frequent lightning lasting several hours that happened. Eventually rain even got into Sutherland Heights/Catalina, with 0.17 inches here, and 0.12 inches at the Golder Bridge, and that didn’t seem possible since the rain shafts were so locked onto the Catalinas, and east side for so long. Dan Saddle, about 5 mi S of Oracel, counting the mid-afternoon thunderstorms that locked in upthere, got a 2.68 inches over the past 24 h! That should have sent a little water down the CDO. BTW, a location in the Rincons is reporting 4.09 inches in the past 24!

5:50 AM. Day started with "colorful castellanus." Hope you saw this. — 5:50 AM. Day started with “colorful castellanus.” Hope you saw this.

Update ann DSC_0239 — 12:26 PM. After a late morning start, the Cumulus congestus tops were streaming away from the origin zone of Mt. Lemmon to over the north part of Saddlebrooke and the Charouleau Gap. No ice evident yet, but it was just about to show itself.
BTW, the “51ers” have a nice baseball team in Vegas (of course), this brought to my attention by neighbors recently, showing that a degree of strangeness permeates American life, as also shown in these blogs.

12:44 PM. Ice virga now seen in the right hand side falling out as I passed the budding wildlife overpass now being constructed on Oracle Road. I guess scents and signage will be used to direct wildlife to the overpass.

1:49 PM. Took about an hour more of rain and development for the thunder to start from these locked in turrets that kept springing on The Lemmon.

4:54 PM. Long before this, it was "all over', the rains no doubt up there had helped to put the fire out, so-to-speak, and with no anvils advancing toward us, there was even hardly any point to remain conscious. It is done. — 4:54 PM. Long before this, it was “all over’, the rains no doubt up there had helped to put the fire out, so-to-speak, and with no anvils advancing toward us, there was even hardly any point to remain conscious. It is finished.

6:54 PM. Shallow grouping of Stratocumulus provided a nice, if boring, backdrop to the setting sun's light on Samaniego Ridge. — 6:54 PM, 2 h later. Shallow grouping of Stratocumulus provided a nice, if boring, backdrop to the setting sun’s light on Samaniego Ridge.

7:04 PM. Only ten minutes later, and I'm out wondering around in the backyard looking for a nice sunset shot, when I see this shocking site, a protruding turret far above the other tops. Still, I pooh-poohed anything but a ragged collapse in the minutes ahead. It was too late in the day for heating or anything else to generate rain in situ from these lower clouds (now topping Mt. Lemmon). — 7:04 PM. Only ten minutes later, and I’m out wondering around in the backyard looking for a nice sunset shot, when I see this shocking sight for the time of day, a protruding turret far above the other tops. Still, I pooh-poohed anything happening but a ragged collapse in the minutes ahead. It was too late in the day for heating or anything else to generate rain in situ from these lower clouds (now topping Mt. Lemmon). Nice pastel colors, though.

7:32 PM. Though "pinkie" in the prior photo did fade, new turrets kept bubbling upward, and in disbelief, this one reached up beyond the ice-forming temperature threshhold (is probably topping out between 25-30 kft, not huge) and a strong rain shaft emerged on the Catalinas. After a little while longer, lightining began to flash to the east as the Reddington Pass area started to get hammered. Eventually in the early nighttime hours. these cells propagated to the west, giving us that bit of rain here in The Heights of Sutherland. How nice, and how mind-blowing this whole evening was! — 7:32 PM. Though “pinkie” in the prior photo did fade, new turrets kept bubbling upward, and in disbelief, this one reached up beyond the ice-forming temperature threshhold (is probably topping out between 25-30 kft, not huge) and a strong rain shaft emerged on the Catalinas. After a little while longer, lightining began to flash to the east as the Reddington Pass area started to get hammered. Eventually in the early nighttime hours. these cells propagated to the west, giving us that bit of rain here in The Heights of Sutherland. How nice, and how mind-blowing this whole evening was!

Today

Got some Stratocu (castellanus in some parts) topping Sam (Samaniego Ridge) this morning, an outstanding indication of a lot of moisture in the air, moisture that’s not just at the surface. U of AZ has thunderstorms moving toward Catalina during the late morning (!) and afternoon from the SW, not the usual direction we’re accustomed to. So, keep eyeball out toward Twin Peaks or so for exciting weather today! Oh, my, towering Cu top converted to ice, must be 25-30 kft up there right now at 7:06 AM! Also, notice nice shadow on lower Ac clouds.

The End

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¹“Truth-in-packaging” portion of web blog statement.

¹Its chaos in the models due to errors in them we don’t always know about, chaos that we try to get a handle on with plots from the NOAA spaghetti factory. But you know all that already, so my apologies for repeating myself again and again. I thought I would see what would happen if I put TWO “1” footnotes….

²Of course, in those days, we had little knowledge about how many hurricanes there were down there due to the lack of satellite data and ship reports. But when the “Weather Bureau”, as it was called in those days did know, there was always good surf on the south facing beaches, like Zuma Beach. So going to the beach, unlike now where wave forecasting is so good, was a real crap shoot. You’d come over that first viewpoint of the ocean on Malibu Canyon Road, on your way to Zuma. one that over looked the ocean a little offshore from Malibu, and either go, “Holy Crap!”, or hope for the best. It was a swell time for lightly employed youth. Below, the best “Holy Crap!” view coming around to that viewpoint, early September 1963 (never saw anything like it before or afterwards; swells were never visible so far offshore from this spot, meaning Zuma would be gigantic). Still remember those Zuma waves, so far out to sea, as the height of small telephones…

Nearly drowned that day at Zuma, me and my pal ignoring lifequard's advice not to go in. HELL, we'd been body surfing the biggest ones we could there for years by then. Fortunately, he didn't have to come and get me, which saved a lot of face. — Nearly drowned that day at Zuma, me and my pal ignoring lifequard’s advice not to go in. HELL, we’d been body surfing the biggest ones we could there for years by then. Fortunately, he didn’t have to come and get me, which saved a lot of face.

Encore of disappointment

Yesterday afternoon and evening were remarkably similar to the day before; great, spectacular banks of brilliant white turrets with black bases approached from the northeast filled with rainy portent, but, as with that previous day, disappointed. Once again, those clouds tended to fade some as they much beyond the Catalina Mountains, southwestward across Catalina, Saddlebrooke, and Oro Valley. Even the rainfall here in Sutherland Heights, 0.08 inches, was almost identical to the day before!

While there were many similarities, one had to be hopeful looking at those clouds as they spread across the valley. They many more Cumulus turrets above them compared with the prior day, had not faded completely to flat stratiform clouds riding an outflow wind. In fact, if you noticed, as they encountered the warmer air to the west of us, ramped up into major storms around I-10 and farther west. They are still going strong, now, a little before 4 AM, approaching Puerto Peñasco/Rocky Point! (This is a peak time of day for rain in the Colorado River Valley, oddly, spanning Yuma to Needles since many of our evening storms here continue on to that area during the night.)

Models still have lots of rain in our future as tropical storms whiz by in the Pacific west of Baja over the next 5-10 days (models have, not surprisingly, backed off direct Arizona hits for now¹). Still there’s plenty of time and water in the air to catch up on our normal summer rainfall. At 4.58 inches, we’re not terribly behind the six inches expected in July and August in Catalina, and with recent rains, the desert has rebounded in a satisfying green over the past couple of weeks.

From the afternoon of August 16th. Anyone for “cactus golf”?

Of course, it you were up early yesterday, you may have seen the lightning (LTG) to the south through southwest. We missed a nice complex of heavy rain that brought 1-2 inches in a couple of spots as it passed across Tucson and into the Avra Valley.

Your cloud day

6:32 AM. Miniature arcus cloud leads the way ahead of those heavy Tucson rains. At the leading edges, many of those clouds would be called, Altcoumulus castellanus, mid-level clouds with spires. But sometimes they cluster, as yesterday into clouds too large to be “Altocumulus” clouds, but rather Cumulonimbus ones with mid-level bases.

7:03 AM. Rain continues to move westward into Avra Valley and Marana. Note crepsucular rays shining down on Rancho Vistoso or someplace like that. There are quite a few “Vistosos” around it seems.

7:36 AM. I loved this little guy, all by itself of up there, trying to do the best it can to be something. Such a pretty scene if you can avoid the snail implication.

2:05 PM. Of course, the Cloud People like me always want to document "First Ice" of the day, and here it is in this sprout off the Catalinas. Can YOU see that critical aspect of our clouds in this shot, one not taken while driving, of course? — 2:05 PM. Of course, the “Cloud People” like me always want to document “First Ice” of the day in his/her cloud diaries, maybe mention it to neighbors later, and here is that moment for yesterday afternoon in this sprout off the Catalinas. Can YOU find that critical aspect of our clouds in this shot, one not taken while driving, of course? Remember, almost always in Arizona, clouds need ice to rain.

4:44 PM. As predicted in the U of AZ model, great banks of Cumulus and Cumulonimbus clouds roar down from the Mogollon Rim and other high terrain to the northeast of Catalina with the promise of a substantial rain. Looking N across Sutherland Heights and Saddlebrooke

5:36 PM. Incoming Cbs (Cumulonimbus clouds) getting really close, but cloud maven person forgets to look up and in a couple of minutes, giant drops are falling by the millions. Kinda reminded me of that time at the Mitchell, SD, airport in '72 when I was radar meteorologist on a project having four aircraft that were to be sent up to try to prevent hail by "overseeding" them with silver iodide. Well, it was midnight or so, and the radar can't look up, but rather out, at storms to send the planes toward, and the 1-inch hail stones started pummeling the airport from a cell that developed overhead, like that one yesterday afternoon did over Sutherland Heights! — 5:36 PM. Incoming Cbs (Cumulonimbus clouds) getting really close, but cloud maven person forgets to look up and in a couple of minutes, giant drops are falling by the millions. Kinda reminded me of that time at the Mitchell, SD, airport in ’72 when I was radar meteorologist on a project having four aircraft that were to be sent up to try to prevent hail by “overseeding” them with silver iodide². Well, it was midnight or so, the radar can’t look up, of course, but rather out, at storms to send the planes toward. Well, the 1-inch diameter hail stones started pummeling the airport from a cell that developed overhead, like that one yesterday afternoon did over Sutherland Heights!

5:41 PM. Surprise! Extra big drops, too, for a brief time, and 0.06 inches. It was so fantastic! — 5:41 PM. Surprise! Extra big drops, too, for a brief time, and 0.06 inches. It was so fantastic, as unexpected rain always is!

6:02 PM. Its looking "oretty good" here, a couple of expansive, solid dark bases. But, there are also those "weak" updraft updraft areas denoted by broken light and dark areas. — 6:02 PM. Its looking “OK”, better than the day before here, with a couple of larger, solid dark bases. But, there are also those “weak” updraft updraft areas denoted by broken light and dark areas. Nice lightning on the left; lighting on the right.

6:37 PM. While one of those bases unloaded with a few cloud-to- ground LTG strikes over there by the Palmer in Sutherland Valley, the base to the north of us just could not work its way S, and unloaded — 6:37 PM. While one of those bases unloaded with a few cloud-to- ground LTG strikes over there by the old Golder Ranch in Sutherland Valle. The bases to the north of us just could not work thier way S, and pretty much remained in place, unloading on Charouleau Gap

6:49 PM. Hopes for a substantial rain fading fast as the cloud base this side of the Charouleau Gap rain area began to look chaotic. The rain that's falling there needs to be replenished by new turrets that convert to ice, and if that's not happening, then the rain just falls out and the storm ends. Here, that rainy area was just not replenished by building turrets, and so got lighter and lighter until it faded away. — 6:49 PM. Hopes for a substantial rain fading fast as the cloud base this side of the Charouleau Gap rain area and estedning overhead of Sutherland Heights began to look chaotic, not firm and smooth. The rain that’s falling on the Gap needs to be replenished by new turrets that convert to ice, and if that’s not happening, then the rain just falls out and the storm ends. Here, that rainy area was just not being replenished by building turrets adjacent to it, and so it got lighter and lighter until it faded away. Also, the rain shafts never had that black, straight sided look that goes with strong convection.

7:03 PM. Rosy glow at sunset...yet another great name for a western singer! But, getting back on task, notice the rain shafts and how wispy they are, with sloping rain. That indicates the tops aren't too high, the updrafts weak, and the clouds probably just barely made it to the ice-forming level. — 7:03 PM. “Rosy glow” at sunset…yet another great name for a western singer! Where do these come from? But, getting back on task, notice the rain shafts and how wispy they are, with sloping rain. That indicates the tops aren’t too high, the updrafts weak, and the clouds probably just barely made it to the ice-forming level.

U of AZ mod run from last evening’s 11 PM AST data indicates a day today like the past two: coupla small Cumulonimbus clouds on the Cat Mountains by mid-afternoon, then a line of big storms again sweep down from the higher mountains to the NE in the evening. Maybe today we’ll get that big rain finally. If nothing else, the skies will be spectacular and dramatic again.

The End.

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¹A peak just now at the 11 PM WRF-GFS run shows that the unusually strong tropical storm not so far offshore from San Diego has been resuscitated. Go here to see this exciting storm and all the rain we’re supposed be getting over the next two weeks. Getting pretty worked up about it again.
²Does seeding to reduce hail work? The evidence is mixed, and is not convincing to national panels or the American Meteorological Society. Still, that type of cloud seeding is carried out in many locations in the Canadian and US grain belts.

“Volcano” erupts north of the Tucson Mountains; California Niño, too, along the Cal coast

The documentary photos, below, of a modest-looking Cumulus congestus cloud yesterday afternoon that lept up to the stratosphere in the 20 minutes that cloud maven person wasn’t watching. Yours truly, while videoing it from start to finish, only got two still shots in those 20 min due to a distraction¹; was not taking photos of every cloud every three minutes as the “compulsar”, CMP likes to do:

1:51 PM. zzzzzzzzzzz. Not much likely to happen. Cloud is isolated over a flat area all by itself, no pals to group along with, so its certainly going to fade away after the itty-bitty amount ice on the right said produces maybe a sprinkle. — 1:51 PM. zzzzzzzzzzz. Not much likely to happen. Cloud is isolated over a flat area all by itself, no pals to group along with, so its certainly going to fade away after the itty-bitty amount ice on the right (frizzy part) produces, oh, maybe a sprinkle or slight rain shaft. Maybe I’ll take a nap while things are calm.

20 minutes later….something unbelievable has happened: a “volcano” of sorts erupted from this moderate, isolated cloud. I have never been so embarrassed in all my life not to have seen this coming. But it was also so wondrous at the same time.

2:11 PM. Wha? Can it possibly be the same cloud? It was. LOOK at that rain shaft! Also, in the middle,about halfway up, that dark thing almost looks like vortex. Kinda reminded me of the Mt. St. Helens eruption.

Also seen was the rarely seen Cumulus congestus pileus tops here and there indicating strong uprushing currents pushing into the air above the top, and rushing up so fast, the air above the top is pushed up and starts to condense into a cloud before the actual cloud top reaches it. See below:

2:18 PM. Pileus cap cloud tops Cumulus congestus turret. If you're in an airplane with instrumentation, you really want to penetrate this one to get high measurements of liquid water, maybe two or three grams or so. — 2:18 PM. Pileus cap cloud tops a rapidly rising Cumulus congestus turret over the Catalina Mountains. If you’re in an airplane with cloud instrumentation, you really want to penetrate this one right hear the top to get high measurements of liquid water, maybe two or three grams or so.

5:14 PM. This thunderstorm was almost in the same exact area as the "volcano." — 5:14 PM. This thunderstorm was almost in the same exact area as the “volcano.”

5:14 PM. It looked like a promising sitiuation was propagating down from N of Charouleau Gap, but the new bases ahead of outflow winds crept closer to the mountains instead of extending out over the lower terrain and Oro Valley. This led to a dramatic rainshaft scene that CMP missed because he didn't bail on a dinner situation at a restaurant. I guess it was quite a show when it cut loose a few minutes later, with a great rainbow, I hear. — 5:14 PM. It looked like a promising situation was propagating down from N of Charouleau Gap, but the new bases ahead of outflow winds crept closer to the mountains instead of extending out over the lower terrain and Oro Valley. This led to a dramatic rainshaft scene that CMP missed because he didn’t bail on a dinner situation at a restaurant. I guess it was quite a show when it cut loose a few minutes later, with a great rainbow, I hear.

7:06 PM. Did catch the lastbit of the show in these Cumulonimbus mamma clouds. So, something to show for having a good time with friends at a local Goose Plaza restaurant.

For the full day yesterday, see the U of AZ time lapse. Its a rolling archive and so it will gone if you read this after today.

Time of the hurricane, and of the California Niño

Those model generated ones, that is, that are shown to come close to Arizona; “close” being within 500 miles or so, which, astronomically speaking, is incredibly close.

This time of year, we look forward to the possibilities that one of the many hurricanes that affect the Mexican Pacific will rush up Baja coast, angle northeastward and cross the border into Arizona. Remember that one in 1976 that hit Yuma with 76 mph winds? Yeah, like that one. Go here to read about it if you don’t believe me that Yuma experienced hurricane force winds from a hurricane. Mt. San Jacinto in southern Cal got over 14 inches of rain, too.

While the computer models have a tough time generating hurricanes in their right places too far in advance, they are remarkable in how many they generate, considering that those hurricanes pop up out of loose-looking cloudy masses, with weak areas of low pressure associated with equally, loosely-organized upper level features. To have a tropical storm leap out of that cloud mass, the upper air pattern has to spread the air aloft over those clouds so that more air can come into the developing storm at the bottom. And, as more thunderheads (though they don’t usually thunder much) pile upward, more warming aloft occurs, and that helps the air spread away even faster.

Today, we have a coupla interesting predictions, one by our Canadian friends, showing a tropical storm roaring up the coast of Baja just next Thursday. This from their 5 PM AST model run yesterday. The remnant of that TS goes into southern California! This is just 5-6 days away, which, in model time, is not that far off and usually is fairly reliable.

But, USA model (WRF-GFS) from 5 PM AST last evening, has no such feature! See below. Boo-hoo.

Still, something interesting has shown up in our own USA model about two weeks out that seems to be due to something unusual that’s happening off the West Coast. A new phenomenon, reported in Nature (!) and akin to the “The New Niño” (the one in Pacific Ocean Region 3.4) and the “Classic NIño” (the one we heard about as kids where the water off Peru gets real warm), has recently been dubbed, the California Niño.

This is an oscillation caused by the slackening of the onshore winds along the Cal coast. Those winds, when as strong as they usually are, cause really cold water to boil up to the surface; when those winds become slackers, the water warms tremendously.

This year the water temperatures offshore of the Cal coastline, are way warmer than usual. No wetsuits needed off Monterey this year (a friend says)! These warmer waters will help tropical storms stay together a little longer when they are directed north and northeastward toward southern California and Arizona. Yay!

This may explain why a hurricane/strong tropical storm is shown drifting to the NW only a few hundred miles SW of San Diego, as shown below, in about two weeks. The eye-popping stat in that model projection, is that the low pressure in the center is still as low as 982 millibars when its fairly close to San DIego! This shows that the models knows about the water temperatures out there (that kind of data is always being fed into them), and it thinks that a pretty good sized tropical low can exist that far close to San Diego with water temperatures as warm as they are.

All we have to do now is wait for the right upper air “steering” pattern, to keep the western motif here, so that those stronger storms are directed thisaway, to continue yet again with the western theme.

The prediction shows that the model thinks that conditions are warm enough to support such a storm relatively close to southern California. What grabs your attention is the 982 mb central pressure in the eye of that predicted storm two weeks from now. Let us not forget the near hurricane that blasted southern California in September 1939, likely having occurred during “Cal Nino” conditions.

Check these predictions out, first from Canada, where a magnifiying glass will be required to view details:

Valid Thursday morning, Aug. 21st at 5 AM AST. The storm is moving N.

Valid for the afternoon of August 29th. This one is moving NW.

The reason for the excitement is that troughs and jet streams are beginning to creep farther south and when they do that, sometimes they can “steer”, to use a western term again here, a storm toward the north and northeast. In June, July, and into much of August, the many hurricanes that form off Mexico and central America drift west and west-northwest only to die over the cooler waters north of the Equator.

More showers and thunderstorms are buiilding on the Catalinas! And late afternoon or evening rains are foretold here.

The End.

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¹Ironically, the distraction was having his computer almost stop working because he had filled up the “C” hard drive with too many photos and almost nothing worked any more! Note: Put photos on a different HD. Leave at least 10 percent of the C hard drive “file-less”, so’s it can work properly.

Rain doesn’t show, but sunset does

Yesterday was equal to the most potent cloud day that cloud maven person has seen since moving to Catalina in 2008; from clear skies to thunder before 10 AM! Fortunately, in spite of all the incredible cloud scenes around, fine, tall clouds so early in the day, CMP was able to control himself and only take 190 photos yesterday, and will share only a 100 of the best with you.

Kind of lost interest, though, when the sky went gray in Altostratus opacus cumulonimbogenitus after about 3 PM. Didn’t get any rain here, either, which was a disappointment.

Oh, well, “Today is another day”, to paraphrase Scarlet O. And another chance for an isolated TSTM to land on us.

Saw some of the most intense rainshafts that you can see here, likely producing 1.5 to 3 inches over there on the Tort Mountains around 2 PM and thereafter yesterday. Thunder was continuous from it for awhile.

But, in poor little Catalina, not even a drop. Even though Altostratus opacus cumulonimbogenitus (copied and pasted that linguistic monstrosity to keep things moving) did not rain here, there were a few drops that got to the ground from it around James Kreig Park where CMP taking batting practice for some reason with a friend. The balls were winning.

In spite of the boring cloud scene in mid-late afternoon in Altostratus opacus cumulonimbogenitus, the skies were open far to the west and allowed a sunset display that was pretty much unequaled in CMPs experience anywhere. So, though it didn’t rain here, we got a nice light show. Hope you saw it. Go to the end to skip a lot of excess verbage and less interesting photos.

The end of the day, BTW, was ruined when a TEEVEE meteorologist came on during a local news program told his viewers that “drizzle” was falling somewhere in the area. My faced turned red, I clinched my fist, and pounded the dining room table, veins standing out. This is exactly why I don’t watch TEEVEE. Under my watch, he’d have been fired before he got off his next sentence off.

But that’s me, CMP, a person who cares deeply about educational standards. As a public service, once again I begin this blog with a photo of what’s not “drizzle”, its that important. Remember that guy (actually, a world famous prof) I told you about that asked me to leave his office and never come back right after CMP told him that it had been drizzling outside? Q. E. D. (The occurrence of drizzle meant that all of that professor’s peer-reviewed body of work in clouds was in error. OK. enough past interesting personal history… Well, maybe this; told him there was a lot more ice in his clouds than he was reporting before the drizzle comment. You could see why that prof might be “concerned.”

Evidence of a "sprinkle", or as we would officially call it, RW--, a "very light rainshower", July 30th, 2010. — Evidence of a “sprinkle”, or as we would officially call it, RW–, a “very light rainshower”, July 30th, 2010. “Its not drizzle, dammmitall!”, as we say around here. Thanks to JG for this photo.

Drizzle, of course, is fine, CLOSE TOGETHER drops smaller than 500 microns in diameter (0.02 inches!) that almost float in the air. You can get really wet biking in drizzle, and forget about a baseball cap keeping those drops off your glasses. They can barely fall out of a cloud; you have to be real close to the base to even experience them and that’s why drizzle is commonly experienced falling from very low-based clouds along coast lines.

You can tell how much that erroneous report of “drizzle” falling in Tucson affected me in how I am starting this blog with an educational soliloquy instead of jumping into cloud photos.

By now, you’d probably like to skip to the chase, and going to the U of AZ time lapse is a good way to do that. Unfortunately, as the storm hit the campus, the power went out for a couple of hours and you miss a good part of it and end of skipping from the middle of the storm to, let’s hear it, “Altostratus opacus cumulonimbogenitus.” Its great when you can say big terms like that; it’ll make you sound more educated than you probably are!

OK, after LONG diversionary material, a sampling of yesterday’s fabulous clouds, so many will post them as thumbnails so’s I can cram in more, and, that glorious sunset, too:

8:27 AM. I've already taken a hundred photos! I am beside myself on how these clouds are growing so early in the morning! — 8:27 AM. I’ve already taken a hundred photos! I am beside myself on how these clouds are growing so early in the morning!

7:34 AM. Cu already! — 8:49 AM. Go, baby, go, make some ice.

9:30 AM. Unbelievable, this tower piling up like that over the low Tortolita Mountains, especially since CMP was clueless about an early start to convection like this!

9:32 AM. Cu congestus are converting to Cumulonimbus capillatus, the ice machine is on! See writing on photo.

9:46 AM. Sprouts! That background turret is far higher, has reached maybe 30 kft, compared to the one in the prior photo. Thunder on the mountain beginning! Unbelievable. What a day this is turning out to be.

10:25 AM. Oh, so pretty. Note ice anvil, but little rain has fallen out yet. Watch out below, its a comin'! — 10:25 AM. Oh, so pretty. Note ice anvil, but little rain has fallen out yet. Watch out below, its a comin’!

10:33 AM. Rain on mountains getting closer to Catalina... — 10:33 AM. Rain on mountains getting closer to Catalina…

10:39 AM. Load has dropped! — 10:39 AM. Load has dropped, though mainly from the turret on the left shown in that 10:25 AM shot.

1:17 PM. Storms to the left of me, storms to the right, stuck in the middle again.

1:46 PM. Storms to the left of me, storms to the right, stuck in the middle again. This is a pretty clever shot where it looks like I'm driving and on my way to James Kreig Park and just kind of holding the camera any which way. — 1:46 PM. Storms to the left of me, storms to the right, stuck in the middle again. This is a pretty clever shot where it looks like I’m driving and on my way to James Kreig Park and just kind of holding the camera any which way. This storm is toward the Tucson Mountains.

1:59 PM. AFter arriving at James Kreig Park, I see this massive storm over the Torts. Storms on the left of me, storms on the right, stuck in the middle again! Thunder was continuous at this point. — 1:59 PM. After arriving at James Kreig Park, I see this massive storm over the Torts. Storms on the left of me, storms on the right, stuck in the middle again! Thunder was continuous at this point.

5:13 PM. After a couple of hours of BP, and a few sprinkles, or RW--, the s — 5:13 PM. After a couple of hours of BP, and a few sprinkles, or RW–, the sky went dull as the convective roots died and left all this heavy, ice debris cloud (Altostratus opacus cumulonimbogenitus, of course, technophiles). Thought the interesting part of the day was over. Clueless again! See below.

6:56 PM. Self portrait. — 6:56 PM. Self portrait in interesting lighting. Kind of goes along with a tendency of megalomania sometimes seen here.

6:58 PM. Not a self-portrait, but rather a celebration of lighting.

7:03 PM. Words aren't enough. — 7:03 PM. Words aren’t enough.

The End.

The Time of the Ant; and Catalina Cumulus to remember

One of nature’s true miracles, one that we Catalinans look forward to every summer, is the “Time of the Ant.” After the first substantial rains, ants burst forth from the ground like little angels with wings, forming tall columns of swirling, joyful creatures that hover above a favorite place above the ground for an hour or two each morning, in acts of conjugation. Sadly, the male participant dies after his reproductive act, while the female and new queen, goes happily off to try and start a new colony, one that may bring us joy in the summers ahead. Its really quite something.

Many nature lovers rush to Arizona from non-flying ant climes to see this remarkable event, which may only last a day or two following the rains. The first episode usually contains the greatest masses of flying ants, and so many come to Arizona at the beginning of July so that they do not miss the “festivities.”

Swarms in the first emergence of the flying ants in summer may number in the tens of thousands, seemingly in a swirling mass of chaos to us. But to them, it is EVERYTHING that they have dreamed of; oh, to fly! Imagine YOU wake up one morning with wings (!), and then had the urge to fly out the door and have sex somewhere, like over someone’s carport! Of course, many would consider this untoward behavior, but I was just trying to get you inside the mind of a flying ant on their wonderful day of emergence, maybe see things in a different light.

After the big rain of the day before, 1.09 inches here, I was ready for them!

I was lucky enough to capture some of the fun-loving, mischievous little creatures yesterday, with some Altocumulus clouds in the background for a good, contrasting backdrop. For your amusement and pleasure, these wonderful shots:

7:05 PM. This astounding cloudy metaphor of the emergence of the flying ant. Was it a coincidence? Or? — 7:05 PM. This astounding cloudy metaphor of the emergence of the flying ant yesterday evening. “Hail the new insect overlords!”–Kent Brockman, in Deep Space Homer.

Yesterday’s clouds

Did good up around Oracle Ridge, which got a remarkable 2.64 inches in a couple of hours late yesterday afternoon and evening. Cloud details below…. Not much rain elsewhere since the clouds kept redeveloping in the same area.

3:59 PM. After being inactive all day, the Catalinas began to spawn some heavy Cumulus clouds (congestus here), but for a hour or so before this time, they were the essence of "big hat, no cattle" (no rain). But then, blammo, the exploded upward just about this time. — 3:59 PM. After being inactive all day, the Catalinas began to spawn some heavy Cumulus clouds (congestus here), but for a hour or so before this time, they were the essence of “big hat, no cattle” (no rain). But then, blammo, they erupted like a swarm of flying ants out of the ground, reached up to the ice forming level and far beyond just about this time. Here, looking toward the Charouleau Gap. This was to be a monument outpouring, with 2.64 inches at Oracle Ridge, south of Oracle over the next three hours. 1.77 inches fell in ONE hour.

4:09 PM. The upward explosion is now underway, and whole cloud scene is changing rapidly, and the first glaciating top can be seen on the left side.

4:35 PM. New turrets shot up and kept glaciating over pretty much the same spot. Not a lot of thunder though, so tops weren't exceptionally high. — 4:35 PM. New turrets shot up and kept glaciating over pretty much the same spot. Not a lot of thunder though, so tops weren’t exceptionally high.

5:06 PM. The stream goes on, pretty much dumping in the same spot. It was about this time that the Oracle Ridge ALERT gauge had reported 1.77 inches in one hour, but almost nowhere else up there was getting any rain.

6:13 PM. Astounding, after the Oracle complex died away just after 5 PM, it seemed like that was it for the day. Then emerging from the house, I see this! I could not believe it, and it was so pretty in the late sun. But, surely it couldn’t do much. And look, too, how low the cloud bases are, topping Sam Ridge, meaning the moisture regime is still wet and tropical.

6:22 PM. Just 9 minutes later, the tops are surging upward. Can they really glaciate and cause another round of precip on the north side of the Catalinas? Didn’t seem possible, considering the time of day.

7:15 PM. This pastel beauty. A haze layer last evening through which the sun shone helped tint the clouds that yellowish orange, and later, as here, helped amplify the pink hues. Still, it was an unforgettable evening.

7:25 PM. The day ended with some of the most memorable scenes I have experienced here, those pastel colors on those cloud tops. And once again it was raining on the Oracle Ridge area.

The End

Good muddy morning, Mr. and Mrs. Catalina!

Well, it finally happened, we got shafted royally (as CM likes to say, referring to getting rain shafted) yesterday afternoon with a badly needed 1.09 inches here in Sutherland Heights. More than 2 inches fell nearby, too, such as near the intersection of Hwy 77 and 79! The highlight of the storm was, of course, all of those several close lightning strikes between 2 and 3 PM yesterday. If you weren’t out watching them, here’s one for you, one that popped Lago del Oro. (Mr. Cloud Maven person reminds his reader that during lightning, do not stand outside by a tree outside as here. Hmmmph, a new thought…. Maybe that’s where the expression, “Death warmed over” comes from, a person unlucky enough to have been struck by lightning…and then somebody finds him right away!

2:06 PM. Looking northwest; a literal highlight of the day.

6:17 AM. The remarkable site of a Sc lenticularis stack over Catalina due to strong easterly winds up there. This is more like a scene from the front range of the Rockies in wintertime. It hovered up there in place for a couple of hours before withering. One almost started looking for infamous “rotor cloud”, filled with severe turbulence. You can see this remarkable cloud for summer and the things it did, courtesy of the U of AZ time lapse film for yesterday, a real keeper! Still have that lenticular cloud over and downwind of Ms. Lemmon today. Interesting.

6:23 AM. After a few drops, a little rainbow was seen off to the NW. Quite nice.

7:56 AM. Of concern after awhile is whether we might have a gloomy, but dry Seattle-style day, or maybe light steady rains as a disturbance moved toward us, or would that disturbance be potent enough to generate deep storms sans heating? For those who live here in the summer, we know that the sun is potent enought, even with dense clouds, especially ones that are NOT compose of ice crystals, the vaporize pretty heavy overcasts. This would be a good thing, because a little heating goes a long way when you have deep, and low based moisture as we had yesterday. The clouds shown here are composed of droplets, not ice crystals, but, of course, I have just now insulted your Cloud Maven Junior intelligence because you can see the sharpness of the cloud features, and more importantly there is no virga, a site that would mean there was ice inside the clouds, ice that would grow into major snowflakes, melt and fall out as rain. So, there is hope here, to continue this novella, for a "burn off" in spite of the heavy, and dark looking clouds because its early in the morning still and they probably have higher concentrations of droplets in them and that in turn cause more of the sun's light to be reflected off'n the top. — 7:56 AM. (Caution-long, sleep-inducing caption ahead. If you’re driving you’ll want to pull off the road.) Of concern after awhile is whether we might have a gloomy, but dry Seattle-type spring day, or maybe only light steady rains amounting to only a few hundredths or tenths as a disturbance moved toward us. Or, would that disturbance be potent enough to generate deep storms sans heating? For those who live here in the summer, we know that the sun is potent enough, even with dense clouds, especially ones that are NOT composed of ice crystals, to vaporize pretty heavy overcasts. This would be a good thing, because a little heating goes a long way when you have deep, and low based moisture as we had yesterday. Doesn’t have to get that hot. The clouds shown here are composed of droplets, not ice crystals, but, of course, I have just now insulted your Cloud Maven Junior cloud intelligence because you can see the sharpness and detail of the tiniest cloud features; they are not “blurry-looking as ice clouds would be, and more importantly there is no virga, a site that would mean there was ice inside the clouds, ice that would grow into major snowflakes, melt and fall out as rain. So, there is hope here in this sighting of droplet clouds, to continue this novella, for a “burn off” in spite of the heavy, and dark looking clouds because its early in the morning still and they probably have higher concentrations of droplets in them and that in turn cause more of the sun’s light to be reflected off’n the top, and that’s why they look so dark, a darkness that has been enhanced that bit by a little trick of photography called, “underexposing.” Oh, the cloud type? Stratocumulus stratiformis (the second descriptor because there’s so much of it.)

9:46 AM. Within only an hour or two, the thought of a heavily overcast all day could be jettisoned as the normal mid-morning to mid-day thinning occurred. But, now, would the storms be clustered enough to hit Catalina, or would they end up being too scattered as in the day before where big dumps missed us? It was, however, now in the bag, that huge clouds would rise up later in the day due to some heating. Note Ac lenticular slivers.

1:47 PM. While doubts arose as the sky filled in again with dark, lackluster Cumulus and Stratocumulus clouds over Catalina, powerful storms were ripping across Tucson and points S leading one to believe that there was a chance these clouds would pile higher until reaching the ice-forming level in spite of moderate temperatures. Sure enough, one of the Great Moments in clouddom, is catching those first strands of rain.graupel that fall from such a cloud. Really, its like seeing a marbled murrelet streaking in from the coast in a redwood forest, its that rare (see Rare Bird, Marie Mudd Ruth, award winning author, in keeping with a mud theme here today. — 1:47 PM. While doubts arose as the sky filled in again with dark, lackluster Cumulus and Stratocumulus clouds over Catalina, powerful storms were ripping across Tucson and points S leading one to believe that there was a chance these clouds would pile higher until reaching the ice-forming level in spite of moderate temperatures. Sure enough, one of the Great Moments in clouddom, is catching those first strands of rain/graupel that fall from such a cloud, as here. Really, its like seeing a marbled murrelet streaking in from the coast whilst in a redwood forest, its that rare (see Rare Bird, Marie Mudd Ruth, award winning author and friend who likes clouds a lot, in keeping with a “mud” theme here today. Remember, too, you only got a couple of minutes to catch this stage as the large drops and soft fall out at about 15-20 mph.

1:59 PM. Moving rapidly westward, unloads west of Saddlebrooke. Worried here, since it missed. — 1:59 PM. Moving rapidly westward, unloads west of Saddlebrooke. Worried here since it missed.

2:00 PM. More rain and thunder appeared upwind on the Catalinas leading to renewed hope. In fact, the whole sky at this point seemed to be turning into one huge Cumulonimbus. It was great!

3:27 PM. An inch had fallen and it looked like we were going have a lake side property. Next time will get kayak out! Sometimes toads erupt from the earth when this happens, but I guess they like it darker than this.

4:01 PM. One of the prettiest sites after our major rains is this line of Stratus fractus clouds that cuddle up against Samaniego Ridge. Yesterday was no exception, and it was another memorable site of the day.

The weather ahead

Well, drying. Unfortunately we’re in for another long dry spell likely beginning after today. Hoping we can squeeze out one more day with rain this afternoon. Today’s storms will move from an unusual summertime direction from the south-southwest and southwest, so you;ll want to be watching toward the Tucson Mountains to Twin Peaks for stuff that might come in in the afternoon, more of a fall pattern as the winds are shifting aloft today to from the SW. The Catalinas get active with Cu and Cumulonimbus piling up by late morning, but they drift toward the north and not over us as they did yesterday, all this from the U of AZ model run from 11 PM AST last night.

Interesting optics yesterday; substantial rains just ahead

Pretty boring lately…. No motivation here, even after caffeinating royally every morning. Have had some pro work to work on, too, like reviewing a manuscript for a journal–loosely translated, work that’s largely comprised of “finding fault in the work of others,” which I am pretty good at, to be a little immodest. Due this weekend, too…

11 PM U of AZ mod has late afternoon and evening rains in Catalina! Yay. Looks pretty wet, too, through the middle of next week, some lucky places (Catalina/Oro Valley) might get 1-3 inches during that time I suspect. (Neck out pretty far here.)

But…another longish dry spell takes hold after that. Seems to be the character of our summer; a couple good, wet days, then a long dry spell.

Still there were some great cloud sights yesterday, and I wanted to share them with my reader, wherever you are.

Down at second from the bottom is the rare sun pillar, and the last photo, a kind of an odd parhelia (sun dog) since the clouds were mainly Altocumulus ones in which it was occurring and it was darn bright.

Parhelia normally occur in icy Altostratus clouds. I would guess that this one might have been caused by ice crystals produced by an aircraft that passed through that Ac layer toward the horizon, right.

The End, back to work….

Much adieu about nothing (i.e., no rain)

There are a lot of photos here of yesterday’s clouds, considering it was a day with no rain. Oh, well, pretty normal for a cloud-centric person where the least cloud minutiae is somehow “interesting.”

8:13 AM. Very gratifying and a little surprising to see the first tiny Cu spring up so early in the morning off'n Lemmon. But, would it be only shallow moisture? — 8:13 AM. Very gratifying and a little surprising to see the first tiny Cu spring up so early in the morning off’n Lemmon. But, would it be only shallow moisture?

10:13 AM. Also a promising sign, a thin turret rising out of a blob of small Cu. Mr. Cloud Maven Person apologizes in advance if this shot is somehow offensive. — 10:13 AM. Also a promising sign, a thin turret rising out of a blob of small Cu. Mr. Cloud Maven Person apologizes in advance if this shot is somehow offensive by suggesting a middle finger.

10:52 AM. Clouds mass above Ms. Lemmon, BUT, can they reach the ice-forming level where the temperature is as low as -10 C (14 F) or lower so that they can rain? I'm thinking it'll be close, but was not real hopeful. — 10:52 AM. Clouds mass above Ms. Lemmon, BUT, can they reach the ice-forming level where the temperature is as low as -10 C (14 F) or lower so that they can rain? I’m thinking it’ll be close, but was not real hopeful.

11:19 AM. Amazing! On this expected to be dry day, Ms. Lemmon and her environs have created a Cumulonimbus cloud! Nowhere within a hundred miles was there another cloud like this!

11:19 AM. Zoom of the icy "calvus" top in the middle (its not very fibrous yet, but is clearly loaded with ice, unlike the crinkly turret at left. Sometimes that "calvus" look is compared with the look of "cotton candy." You remember, cotton candy don't you? — 11:19 AM. Zoom of the icy “calvus” top in the middle (its not very fibrous yet, but is clearly loaded with ice, unlike the crinkly turret at left. Sometimes that “calvus” look is compared with the look of “cotton candy.” Within about 10 s, there was a rumble of thunder! You remember, cotton candy don’t you?

12:56 PM. Pretty clear here that the day was done as far as Cumulonimbus clouds are concerned as the drier air moving in the from the west took it toll, and well as the cooling of the mountains by the prior thunderstorm. Or was it done? CM thought so, but maybe I shouldn't tell you that, causing you to lose confidence. — 12:56 PM. Pretty obvious here that the day was done as far as Cumulonimbus clouds over the Cat Mountains are concerned as the drier air moving in the from the west began to take its toll, as well as the cooling of the mountains by the prior thunderstorm. Or was it done? CM thought so, but maybe I shouldn’t tell you that, causing you to lose confidence.

1:50 PM. A truly shocking sight to CM. The Cumulonimbus clouds were able to start up again!

2:04 PM. Mr. Cloud Maven Person enjoys showing you how fast cloud tops can glaciate, and this was a nice case. — 2:04 PM. Mr. Cloud Maven Person enjoys showing you how fast cloud tops can glaciate, and this was a nice case (Cb calvus stage here).

5:23 PM. Well, it was all over by this time, no more Cbs, but here's a Cumulus mediocris showing crepuscular rays (ray features due to high aerosol content of the air). — 5:23 PM. Well, it was all over by this time, no more Cbs, but here’s a Cumulus mediocris showing crepuscular rays (ray features due to high aerosol loading of the air).

7:32 PM. Nice pastel colored Cirrus spissatus cumulonimbogenitus (I couldn't stop with just "Cirrus", I had to ruin it with a long unpronounceable part. Oh, well, that's what cloud-maven person does. — 7:32 PM. Nice pastel-colored Cirrus spissatus cumulonimbogenitus (I couldn’t stop with just “Cirrus”, I had to ruin it with a long unpronounceable part. Oh, well, that’s what cloud-maven person does.

Next and maybe last rain of the summer (kidding only a little) looks to be around August 3rd still. Flow aloft looking awfully grim overall for summer rain in Catalina mod longer term predictions… This may be the worst thing I have ever said to a desert people during their “wet” season. Let’s hope we have about 5 inches on August 3rd or so!

Tall slender clouds stay isolated and lonely

Didn’t group together as hoped, though a wind shift aloft did happen last evening (from SSE to SSW, seen here). But there was nothing with it. Too dry I guess, too stable, viz., air locked into place near the ground. Boohoo. When the venerable U of AZ model outputs came out later yesterday morning finally, they knew that virtually nothing was going to happen beyond isolated thunderheads yesterday during the day. Well, you can’t wait that long, until late morning; you have to go with your gut sometimes, even if it might be wrong.

Some photos from our quiet day:

9:34. Cumulus began massing over Ms. Lemmon 3 h earlier than the prior day, a good sign for more action. — 9:34. Cumulus began massing over Ms. Lemmon 3 h earlier than the prior day, a good sign for much more action than the prior day, which had none.

11:58 AM. A Cumulonimbus was in progress! Zoomed view to appear larger than it really was. But, it did rain over there. Very hopeful at this point since large clouds were shooting upward S-W, too. — 11:58 AM. A Cumulonimbus was in progress (note frizzy, icy top at left)! View zoomed here to make cloud appear larger than it really was. But, ignoring that trickery, it did rain over there underneath it.. Was very hopeful at this point since large clouds were shooting upward S-W, too (see below).

12:19 PM. Cumulonimbus and Cumulus congestus pock the SW-W horizon. Maybe they'll form a line as that upper level windshift approaches.... — 12:19 PM. Cumulonimbus and Cumulus congestus pock the SW-W horizon. Maybe they’ll form a line as that upper level windshift approaches….

4:19 PM. Yes, finally, it appears that a line of Cumulonimbus and heavy Cumulus clouds are organizing upwind as I drove downhill on Oracle Road. — 4:19 PM. Yes, finally, it appears that a line of Cumulonimbus and heavy Cumulus clouds are organizing upwind as I drove steeply downhill on Oracle Road.

Help me! I'm drying up! — 4:42 PM. But the clouds were also speaking to me, as they often do, sending a different message: “Help me! I’m drying up! Dry air is right behind me.” So, too much dry air, no clustering factor, in fact, and we were left with isolated, though pretty clouds at sunset (see below).

7:22 PM. Shadow from a distant, lonely Cumulonimbus clouds provides a shady relief for a patch of Cirrus. Very dramatic scene, even if it was now obvious that the thought of a line of clouds moving in with rain was a highly bogus thought. — 7:22 PM. Shadow from a distant, lonely Cumulonimbus clouds provides a shady relief for a patch of Cirrus. Very dramatic scene, even if it was now obvious that the thought of a line of clouds moving in with rain was highly bogus. HOWEVER, an amazing amount of instability (as measured by CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) went overhead quietly last night (over “1900”) as the wind shift aloft approached; had it happened during the daytime, I think we might have had something to talk about. Hardly goes over “1900” in the daytime! Darn. You’ll know that something changed when you see the anvils go off toward the east, and not the west as happened yesterday.

Today’s clouds

Enough water in the air yet for isolated Cu and a Cb, probably much like yesterday. U of AZ mod sees a little afternoon rain in the Catalinas. But, really nothing good in sight now with the exception of around August 3rd. Poor desert. The Canadian model has a Big Rain Day (BRD) on August 3rd as remnant tropical storm moves up the Baja coast and the US model, too, has rain chances picking up then for just a day or two (only). This is getting to be a hard summer.

Lightning shows up, but not the rain

Another “awesome” display of lightning flashed over the Cat Mountains east of Catalina early last evening, accompanied by gusty northerly winds, but that fierce thunderstorm couldn’t make it over those mountains, but rather died on the way. Only sprinkles occurred here, giving us yet another “trace” of rain day. Kind of discouraging after the prior night’s nice little rain of 0.18 inches, one that also occurred after night fall. But as we know, weather never repeats itself exactly.

———-Yesterday’s major cloud mystery———–

Many of you, I am sure noticed the remarkable cloud scene below, perhaps as you came out of the house, or during your lunch hour, and likely puzzled over it the rest of the day. I, too, wondered how that little dot of cloud got so separated from its early Mt. Lemmon spawning grounds and brothers and sisters hovering over the mountain, trying to grow up. Notice that it seems like a puff of cloud, ragged on the bottom, a little rounder on the top. Could it be the top of a “smokestack” Cumulus that somehow we missed, whose connecting parts to Mt. Lemmon have evaporated? Its an important question that we shall try to answer.

12:51 PM. Cumulus humilis and fractus begin gathering over Mt. Lemmon. Recall, btw, this scene began a little after 8 AM on the thundery day before, for perspective--we're late, not a good sign. But what in the world is that little cloud dot to the left and middle of the photo? — 12:51 PM. Cumulus humilis and fractus begin gathering over Mt. Lemmon. Recall, btw, that this kind of cloud scene began a little after 8 AM on the thundery day before, for perspective–we’re late here, not a good sign of active rain day.)

To solve this mystery, Mr. (he’s not a doctor, nor does he have an advanced degree of any kind!) Cloud Maven Person went to the U of Arizona Department of Atmospheric Meteorology and looked at yesterday’s cloud movie. These are top rated movies, and, if you’ve ever looked at them, you can understand why clouds and what the weather does can be hard to predict; locations of storms missed, etc. No computer model can see all the remarkable little cloud wiggles, sudden comings and goings, that you see in these movies, thus introducing slight errors that tend to degrade those model predictions over time. And lots of the time, the locations of the clouds at the outset of the model run is even markedly off! Below, yesterday’s complex cloud movie linked for you in the word, “Movie”:

Movie

You will barely be able to read the time of the day in the lower left hand corner, which adds further complexity in solving this problem, but if you look closely you will see that a minute or two BEFORE the shot above at 12:51 PM, and slender tower rose up from Ms. Lemmon, its trunk evaporating almost immediately, but the last thing to evaporate was the little puff above that sped westward toward Samaniego Ridge.

In conclusion, I think we have solved yesterday’s cloud mystery.

——————-end of cloud mystery module——————–

That such a cloud could shoot up and out from Mt. Lemmon like this one did was a sign that there was great environment for much larger clouds, at least in the fall of the temperature with height (lapse rate), but that more humidity was needed to keep them from evaporating as they tried to grow. It wasn’t long before the hopeful sign of a Cumulonimbus calvus (anvil not formed yet) appeared beyond the Catalina Mountains, and the chance of evening rains, as the models had predicted, began to look better.

2:05 PM. Cumulonimbus calvus top makes its appearance, likely 70 miles or more away. — 2:05 PM. Cumulonimbus calvus top makes its appearance to the SE, likely 70 miles or more, and hours away.

5:33 PM. Threatening clouds and thunderheads were now moving into the Oracle/Mammoth areas, and the chances of a significant rain here were growing by the minute as major radar echoes approached from the east. I remember thinking how how happy I was that such a dreadful Cumulus day over the Catalinas was now going to be reversed by this onslaught of storms as the U of AZ model had predicted.

7:05 PM. Thus far, only "debris" clouds from the thunderstorms upwind had crossed the Catalinas, spreading westward toward the setting sun. But those dark clouds did provide the contrast as the setting sun lit up the Catalinas for this great scene. — 7:05 PM. Thus far, only “debris” clouds from the thunderstorms upwind had crossed the Catalinas, spreading westward toward the setting sun. But those dark clouds did provide the contrast as the setting sun lit up the Catalinas for this great scene.

7:22 PM. Multiple layers of clouds provide multiple sunset colors.

7:32 PM. That extra brightness in the center of the photo, if you noticed it, is called a sun pillar. Its due to a fall of plate-like, hexagonal ice crystals that fall face down that allow the sun's light to be reflected toward us. — 7:32 PM. That extra brightness in the center of the photo, if you noticed it, is called a “sun pillar”. Its due to a fall of plate-like, hexagonal ice crystals that fall face down and that enhances the reflected toward us. The sun set exactly below this bright spot. For a bit more on sun pillars, go here.

What seems to be ahead…..

The U of AZ mod hasn’t been updated as of this hour….so, being in a hurry, we’ll do an “SOP” forecast (you have to see Bob for a good one. I like Bob, too) but we have plenty of lower level humidity, and there appears to be a weak upper trough passing over us today, and that “should” help to collect storms into larger masses instead of just isolated ones. Oops, let me not forget our TUS NWS computer forecast for the Catalina area, too.

So, today might be the last day for a reasonably good chance of a major rain here in Catalina. After today, and for the next two weeks, the circulation pattern is not so great for summer storms, according to the NOAA spaghetti factory plots, seen here.

It seems more and more like we’re doomed to a drier than normal summer, darn it. (Missed those first great storms, too, that started our summer rain season.)

That’s about it for my cloud world. Camera will be ready for the black shafts of summer today!