Cumulus clouds – Page 18

Nearby locations get shafted as summer thunderstorms go on for one more day

Looks now, in spite of a few Altocumulus clouds around that yesterday was the LAST day of our summer rain season in terms of having rain. Much drier air moving across Arizona from the west now. Kinda sad about it, still yesterday was GREAT, a final tribute in a way. Will have some stats tomorrow on how we did here in Catalina/SH compared to normal. Big trough comes in around the 25th to give a preview of cool fall weather. I suppose you’ll like that, not being hot every day.

In the meantime, your cloud day yesterday below, in detail, of course.

SONY DSC — 6:37 AM. Altocumulus, still hanging out, providing a nice sight during a dog walk.

9:12 AM. Pretty Altocumulus/ floccus and castellanus (has a flat bottom).

11:38 AM. Early, plumpy Cumulus clouds over Oro Valley and the Torts give hope for some rain. On the right, a "cloud street", one issuing off the Catalinas toward the Torts. — 11:38 AM. Early, plumpy Cumulus clouds over Oro Valley and the Torts give hope for some rain. On the right, a “cloud street”, one issuing off the Catalinas toward the Torts.

12:08 PM. Here's a promising sign. Its only 12:08 PM and there's a wall of Cumulonimbus lining the high terrain N to NNE of Catalina/SH. Could be that there is still enough water up top to support a thunderhead 'round here. — 12:08 PM. Here’s a promising sign. Its only 12:08 PM and there’s a wall of Cumulonimbus lining the high terrain N to NNE of Catalina/SH. Could be that there is still enough water up top to support a thunderhead ’round here.

12:26 PM. NOthing much going on in this cloud street. But it will amazingly enough. — 12:26 PM. Nothing much going on in this cloud street. But it will, amazingly enough.

12:47 PM. Since I want you to think exactly the same things that I do, you should have thought, "Huh. That's not a bad cloud base just over there on top of Oro Valley. Wonder if its going to do anything (form ice) topside?" At this point, you start obsessing over this cloud bottom, not leaving it for even a minute because you don't want to miss anything. Maybe you call a friend, too, and tell them about it. — 12:47 PM. Since I want you to think exactly the same things that I do, you should have thought, “Huh. That’s not a bad cloud base just over there on top of Oro Valley. Wonder if its going to do anything (form ice) topside?” At this point, you start obsessing over this largest cloud bottom, not leaving it for even a minute because you don’t want to miss anything. Maybe you call a friend, too, and tell them about it. That’s probably what you should have done.

12:55 PM. You're upset you didn't call a friend because now you see that there's a ton of ice up at the top, no shaft coming out of the bottom, but there surely will be. You could have let them know there was going to at least be rain, especially if they live over there by Saddlebrooke Ranch. — 12:55 PM. You’re upset you didn’t call a friend because now you see that there’s a ton of ice up at the top, no shaft coming out of the bottom, but there surely will be. You could have let them know there was going to at least be rain, especially if they live over there by Saddlebrooke Ranch.

1:00 PM. Just five minutes later, the shaft is already on the ground!

1:08 PM. Thunder galore by now, and a surprising even to me, strong thunderstorm. And there wasn't another one around for about 50 miles in all directions! How lucky were we? Plenty. — 1:08 PM. Thunder galore by now, and a surprising even to me, strong thunderstorm. And there wasn’t another one around for about 50 miles in all directions! How lucky were we? Plenty.

4:20 PM. The last thunderstorm of the day was over there behind the Catalinas. Could here thunder from. I love Ms. Mt. Lemmon and the Catalinas, but lately they've been letting me down. No thunderheads have shot upward from them, only morning Cu and afternoon moderate Cu, mostly, "hold the ice"; not even deep enough to form ice. Its hard to keep caring for something when its always letting you down. — 4:20 PM. The last thunderstorm of the day was over there behind the Catalinas. Could here thunder from. I love Ms. Mt. Lemmon and the Catalinas, but lately they’ve been letting me down. No thunderheads have shot upward from them, only morning Cu and afternoon moderate Cu, mostly, “hold the ice”; not even deep enough to form ice. Its hard to keep caring for something when its always letting you down.

6:36 PM. Still, it was a great cloud effort yesterday, and here even in the evening, some are still putting out. And with a couple of drops from the earlier storm to the NW, we got to register a trace of rain in The Heights.

Find the ice; view the flowers

Today’s cloud lesson is in a quiz format. Find the ice in the photos below. As you know, ice in clouds is nearly always required before rain can fall out of clouds here in, well, all of Arizona, not just here in Catalinaland. Can you see some in the photos of of moderate Cumulus clouds below?
If nothing else, these shots show the kind of pretty skies we have now days. A few isolated Cumulonimbus clouds remain on the far horizon, NW to NE, as our summer rain season goes on, but barely. You can see those in the photos, below, if you have some binoculars.

BTW, I would suggest a hike/horseback ride into the Catalina foothills because there is currently an amazing profusion of morning glories in their full glory. Here are a couple of examples of what was seen last Saturday in a hike up the “Middle Gate” up into the foothills. It was STUNNING! They were not just along the trail, but extended into the brush like poppies do in the spring. So pretty. Took too many photos, was it 200? (202). But every few yards up there on the east side of the Sutherland Wash was so seductive.

Dessicated thunderstorms

The extreme dryness above a shallow moist layer yesterday made it tough to get any rain out of the several thunderstorms that occurred WNW to N of Catalina. No black walls of rain from those guys, which seemed odd due to their sizes. The dainty “waists”, the mid-sections of tall clouds so often seen yesterday, was also odd.

Here are some shots, beginning with the auspicious start of early towering Cumulus clouds over the Catalinas:

12:15 PM. First Cumulonimbus well underway! However, look at how the top is leaning off to the east. You haven't seen that before in months, and is an indication of that dessicated westerly flow eroding our tropical air higher above the ground. Also, to go on a bit, the wind shear, the change in direction and speed as you go higher, is taking the glaciated parts of this storm away from its base, not good. This means that the rain, resulting from melting snow and graupel, is falling out into very dry air instead of down through to the base. Not good. — 12:15 PM. First Cumulonimbus well underway! A nice early start to precipitating clouds! However, look at how the top is leaning off to the east. You haven’t seen that in months, and is an indication of that dessicated air flowing from the west is eroding our tropical air in the mid and higher cloud levels. This also means that the rain, resulting from melting snow and graupel in high glaciated turrets of Cumulonimbus clouds , is falling out into very dry air instead of down through the base of the cloud. Not good.

3:15 PM. Pinched off. Another sign of just how dry the air was in the middle heights of these clouds.

5:47 PM. An amazing sight, this extremely tall cloud, shooting up through the extremely dry air above its base. Cumulus clouds can do this because on the way up they have circulations in them akin to vortex rings which protect them to some degree from the dry ambient air on the way up (they’re still entraining the ambient air around them). However, when the air motion slows and the vortex rings fall apart, dry air rushes in and kills the cloud. In cloud speak, this is called, “entrainment.” This is much like a smoke ring that travels across a room and then suddenly, disintegrates as the spinning inside it slows down.

6:28 PM. As usual on these last summer rain season days, we had another pastel sunset, so nice to see.

There will still be enough lower level moisture over the next few days for Cumulus clouds, and maybe distant Cumulonimbus ones.

Way out there, in model fantasy land, the WRF-GFS mod from last evening’s global data crunch, has a tropical storm remnant affecting us on the 30th, but nothing before then.

Tubes is us

Buried among the small fair weather Cumulus clouds over the Catalina Mountains were a two fair-weather vortices. Have seen only maybe six of these in a lifetime of skycentricity:

In the meantime, after more hours heating, a few Cumulonimbus clouds reared their heads, ones that were much closer than the day before. Was hoping for an eruption over Ms. Lemmon, but it didn’t happen. Didn’t even see any ice form in those clouds. Wonder if you saw and logged these Cumulonimbus tops in your weather diary yesterday? First a precursor shot:

12:11 PM. First Cu turret seen that really stuck up thousands of feet higher than anything else yesterday. Don’t see signs of ice yet, that it had gotten high/cold enough to form precip. Nice lighting, though, with those shadows on the Gap. Its a great scene when have them on our now greenish mountains.

Below, zoomed views of Cumulonimbus tops, ones that were closer than the day before, but not that close.

Below, as promising as the clouds got over the Cat Mountains yesterday. I was so hopeful here, as I know you were, too, that maybe at least a little shower would drift off, some ice would form in these bulging Cumulus mediocris to Cu congestus clouds. But no, none of that happened. Still, its a nice photo with those nice shadows on our greenish mountains, to repeat a thought since I’ve run out imagination.

2:53 PM. Pretty much the peak of the cloud development over the Catalinas yesterday. — 2:53 PM. Pretty much the peak of the cloud development over the Catalinas yesterday, hold the ice.

Looks like a pretty similar day ahead, some Cu, an isolated Cb somewhere out there, and that’s about it as our “tropical river” remains east of us, terminating on Boulder, Colorado, while flushing out NM as well with big storms. If you want to read more about what done it, you should go to Bob’s site since he’s written up stuff in journals about the huge prior floods in Colo and SD, that are somewhat similar to the current deluges in Colo.

This is the very SAME tropical river responsible the recent heavy rains in eastern California and southern Nevada, across Arizona and New Mexico, into Utah and Colorado over the past week. While there will be plenty of damage with this last Colorado deluge, the drought relief aspects will be worth billions.

Seeing cloud tops over Prescott from Catalina; Douglas tops 16 inches in summer rain

Here they are:

2:53 PM. Cumulonimbus tops with their anvils line horizon northwest to north. The ones that begin this series on the left are in the Prescott area. See radar chart below. Cumulus fractus clouds are in the foreground.

ann prc-1 — 2:45 PM AST. Arizona radar echoes yesterday at the time of the photo. Note little green patch SW of Prescott, maybe Peoples Valley area. Radar courtesy of WSI Intellicast. That would be the leftmost tops.

6:41 PM. Nice sunset with "surprise" Cumulonimbus located NW of Sells. Nice little virga patch hanging down from some Altocumulus next to it. — 6:41 PM. Nice sunset with “surprise” rogue Cumulonimbus located NW of Sells. Nice little virga patch hanging down from some Altocumulus next to it. Did not expect a Cb in that direction at the end of the day. Bodes well for today; having Cbs that are a little closer to us.

6:46 PM. Totally clear skies, moon intact, S-SW, though. Stratified smog layer is at bottom. Smog was much less yesterday than feared it would be after the afternoon invasion of the day before. — 6:46 PM. The sky was completely clear, however, moon intact, S-SW. Note stratified smog layer at the bottom.

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Our desert greening seems to be reaching its peak now, and so it would be nice for you to get out and see it before football day on Saturday and it could start to wilt that bit under our drier conditions. Just after sunrise, and just before sunset, there is some great lighting on our weedy summer desert vegetation.

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The weather ahead….

Canadians¹ think the tropical air will hang around SE Arizona for a few more days, with the chances of rain actually increasing that bit on Saturday. The US WRF-GFS model is not quite so generous with precip here, so we will ignore that one. But, in any event, we should have pretty Cumulus, and distant Cumulonimbus clouds for a few more days before The End, after which we have to wait for a hurricane/tropical storm to roar up the coast of Baja and across Yuma to get any real rain.

In the meantime, I am wondering whether you have taken that trip I suggested to SE Arizona to see the vegetation explosion resulting from this summer’s extraordinary rains they’ve gotten down there? Douglas, for example, has just crossed over the 16 inches mark for this summer a couple of days ago, the wettest summer of the past 100 years down that way. The summer desert vegetation down there must be extraordinary, too, and it would really be worth seeing. I will get down there for sure!

It has continued to rain extraordinary amounts of rain in western Arizona. Here is a depiction of just the past seven days ending yesterday morning (today’s image is not out yet). Its a great sight, considering our “extreme” and “exceptional” drought designations over that way.

Seven day radar-derived precipitation totals for the US ending yesterday at 5 AM AST. Just look at how Arizona overall has fared during this period. Amazing. Should make a good dent in our drought conditions. And the generous rains in droughty NM are foretold to continue, good news indeed. (BTW, the excessive precip around Salt Lake City is bogus, due to an error.) There are holes in mountainous areas due to blocked radar beams, so this map under represents the rain that actually occurred. Need more radars!

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¹The writer exhibits bias here due to his precipophilic personality combined with having most of his relatives living in Canada. Also, the cruder Canadian model with its larger grid sizes tends to smooth out precip over larger areas than the US WRF-GFS model shown here.

The trace

We had a trace yesterday in SH. There was not ONE but TWO periods of rain, the first at 1236 to 1237, and the second from 1240 to 1240:30, both from the same cloud, but likely from different turrets protruding above the base. The drops were very small, barely mm-size, with considerably horizontal separation between them. Likely were from a few ice crystals that rimed up, became soft hail, then melted and evaporated on the way down to those tiny 1-mm sizes.

Here’s the key to recording trace events: First of all, you have to “want it”; have to have the fire in your belly like I do, that a day in which a small amount of rain falls is not getting by you as a zero rain day. In effect, you have to have a linebacker’s mentality. Be out there when it might happen, park your car outside overnight after cleaning the front and back windows before nightfall. Dust on it is especially good.

Now for yesterday and what happened, presented in detail so that you can improve your trace measuring skill set:

12:36 PM. Isolated drops falling, there's one over there, and I thought I felt one, arms extended. But cloud is slipping slightly to east of me! No shaft coming out! — 12:36 PM. Isolated drops falling, there’s one over there, and I thought I felt one, arms extended. But cloud is slipping slightly to east of me! No shaft coming out! But great looking cloud bottom. Will go into that collection.

12:35 PM. Just before first drops felt. — 12:40 PM. Another surge of little drops, can hear them on porch roof! Bottom not looking as generous as a couple of minutes ago.

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Now, for that smog bank that moved in during the afternoon….THAT was a horrible sight, and kind of ruined the late afternoon sky views. The deep blue seen in the first shot was replaced by this whitish, hazy look, lots of “crepsucular” rays, in fact the whole sky got a bit “suckulent”, to misspell another word with purpose…. Take a look:

Likely will have the same stuff today. Origin? Well, seems to be coming out of the southwest and Mexico, but also may be old southern Cal smog. Here’s the GOES aerosol optical depth (AOD) image for later yesterday afternoon, 3:15 PM.

GOES AOD for 3:15 PM. Be glad you're not in Bakersfield, CA! But note some smog over and to the SW of Tucson heading this way. — GOES AOD for 3:15 PM. Be glad you’re not in Bakersfield, CA! But note some smog over and to the SW of Tucson heading this way around low in central AZ. Colored regions denote smog; blue small amounts, orange and red, ugh, gimmee a handkerchief! Can’t measure AOD if too many clouds are present.

Today? Some smog, some pretty-but-dirty Cumulus clouds (ones with extra high droplet concentrations, likely darker bases than they really should have due to the “dirt” inside’em), and not much more. Maybe a Cumulonimbus off on the horizon somewhere.

Better late than never; night storms dump 1.42 inches on Sam Ridge!

If you were awakened last night by thunder, as I was, but then that bit disappointed that not a lot of rain fell, well it did, just not here. In three hours, in the epicenter of those storms, Samaniego Peak got a whopping 1.42 inches, by far the most around, bringing the 24 h total there to a magnificent 1.93 inches. Here in “The Heights”, we only got a tenth last night, with the 24 h total ending at 7 AM, of just 0.19 inches, thanks to about a tenth yesterday morning. You can see more precip data here from the Pima County ALERT gages, along with the other sites such as Rainlog.org and CoCoRahs.

The “tropical river” of moisture from the Tropics is shifting east, and soon we’ll be in the “dry wash” of the westerly flow from the Pacific, too soon really, with a very small chance of storms. Today is the last day of the larger ones, ones with a greater chance of landing on Catalina. After today, we’ll likely just see them off in the distance.

There were some fabulous scenes yesterday, even in the overcast morning rains, followed by those low Stratocumulus and Stratus fractus clouds lining the Catalinas. Here are a few, well, too many again:

7:56 AM. You may wonder why I am posting this shot. Well, its a sky we don't see often here, that dark, rainy look, Stratus fractus creeping along the Catalina Mountains. I thought it was pretty neat. Wouldn't if I still lived in SEA; would be same old same old as they say. But here! Fabulous. — 7:56 AM. You may wonder why I am posting this shot. Well, its a sky we don’t see often here, that dark, rainy look associated with Nimbostratus (the amorphous cloud above the darker ragged Altocumulus.Stratocumulus clouds in the center). Stratus fractus is creeping along the Catalina Mountains. I thought it was pretty neat scene. Wouldn’t if I still lived in SEA; would be same old same old as they say. But here in Catalina? Fabulous.

9:25 AM. While the little rain storm had ended, those low Stratocumulus (too bumpy to be Stratus) were a delight to see up against the mountains with the light playing on them as holes in the higher Altocumulus deck went by,

10:25 AM. Springtime for fungi. Our recent rains have triggered unusual life forms. Here, a large white disk has emerged from the soil just off ET *Equestrian Trail), encountered while walking the dog. — 10:25 AM. Springtime for fungi. Our recent rains have triggered unusual life forms, probably from Seattle. Here, a large white disk has emerged from the soil just off ET *Equestrian Trail), encountered while walking the dog (Laurie Anderson).

11:40 AM. Wasn't long before a bit of heating launched giant Cumulonimbus, though soft ones, not real powerful ones. Still, a gorgeous sight. — 11:40 AM. Wasn’t long before a bit of heating launched giant Cumulonimbus, though soft ones, not real powerful ones with a lot of lightning. Still, a gorgeous sight. Looking northwest, beyond Saddlebrooke.

12:10 PM. Windshift line marked by a line of Stratocumulus approaches Catalina. This did not seem good. There was no real response to it, just shallow clouds, and the clouds behind it seemed suppressed, suggesting drier air was going to move in. I wonder if you saw this line of clouds? — 12:10 PM. Windshift line marked by a line of Stratocumulus/Cumulus congestus (right) approaches Catalina. This did not seem good. There was no real response to it, just shallow clouds, and the clouds behind it seemed suppressed, suggesting drier air was going to move in. I wonder if you saw this line of clouds? Any cloud line like this should be viewed as one likely associated with a wind shift. It was also approaching pretty fast.

3:10 PM. After being in the gym for awhile, came out to see that drier air had indeed moved in, and these great looking Cumulus congestus clouds were going nowhere. From the "Not taken while driving" collection. I really like not taking pictures while driving. That would crazy to do. — 3:10 PM. After being in the gym for awhile, came out to see that drier air had indeed moved in, and these great looking Cumulus congestus clouds were going nowhere. From the “Not taken while driving” collection. I really like not taking pictures while driving. That would be a crazy thing to do.

4:09 PM. The Cumulus over the Cat Mountains continued to wither under the influence of drier air. Was getting pretty discouraged since little of the daytime rain predicted had occurred by this time.

In fact, the only precipitation I had seen since about 9 AM in the morning was by this cow. "Precipitating Cow", yours for $2,000. — In fact, the only precipitation I had seen since about 9 AM in the morning was by this cow (look closely). “Precipitating Cow”, yours for $2,000.

5:31 PM. Cute little cloud tries to grow up like his surrounding brother and sister clouds. What an effort! (Demonstrates the instability of the layer in which the Cumulus formed.)

6:30 PM. But hope arose again as a line of Cumulonimbus appeared on the horizon before sunset, and grew closer. Because there were several, you could tell it was something organized was yet to come; it was not just an isolated one or two. Note the pileus cap on the highest turret (between the lines) indicating a strong updraft.

6:54 PM. Unzoomed view of the approaching group of Cumulonimbus, our nighttime storms. The shadow radiating from the setting sun was due to a Cumulonimbus top not visible on the horizon at right. Indicative, too, of organization, something that might make it into the night, not just die away, were all the towering Cumulus lined up on the horizon to the left of the big cell in the center. Pretty darn spectacular scene I thought.

Precipitating cow

Wall of Voodoo

Stormy weather; 0.42 inches so far

Three thunderstorms with rain here, one overnight, have dumped 0.42 inches here in SH (Sutherland Heights) More is virtually certain. 1.18 inches fell at Horseshoe Bend Road in Saddlebrooke. More reports here and here and here and here, to name a few. Can’t wait for daylight to see how the desert looks.

What an interesting day, beginning with the odd scene of an Altocumulus lenticularis overhead, telling us the wind was substantial and from the east or southeast. Usually you see this cloud in the cool half of the year on the other side of the Catalinas, but there it was, filled with mystery and lightning!

1:54 PM. From the cloud bottoms collection, this. Just about everyone fulfilled its promise by having a — 1:54 PM. From the cloud bottoms collection, a photopgraphic niche of mine, this overhead view just before Saddlebrooke got dumped on. Just about every wide cloud bottom fulfilled its promise by releasing rain yesterday, even some pretty small ones. I thought this shot was exceptional. Price, $1,500. Would look great on somebody’s wall; great texture!

2:06 PM, just three minutes later! Saddlebrooke about to be pounded. Look for golf balls in the CDO.

6:06 PM. Then after a long break in the action, kind of like halftime at a fubball game, those magnificent Cumulus began to reform, climb up once again to levels where they could form ice and rain. I thought this sight was reel perty. Took many photos of the same thing, that's the way it is with photographers. — 6:06 PM. Then after a long break in the action, kind of like halftime at a fubball game, those magnificent Cumulus began to reform, climb up once again to levels where they could form ice and rain. I thought this sight was reel perty. Took many photos of the same thing, that’s the way it is with photographers.

“Little Swirl”, a cyclonic eddy really, but could be somebody’s name, too, to SE moving NW and over us this morning: Look here. Will help keep showers going today, but also check with the real experts. Must quit here as time expires for big bandwidth flow.

Mediocre clouds followed by a brilliant sunset

In case you missed it, this eye-candy from last evening as a crepuscular ray highlight some lower Altocumulus below the main layer:

6:42 PM. Was gasping after sprinting up hill in an obsessive-compulsive pulse to get this shot. But it was worth it.

Now, for the rest of the day. The Cumulus clouds with tops flattening into Stratocumulus were a bit disappointing, their tops, in a few places, did reach the level where ice would form in them and virga and a few light rainshowers fell out. Remember, gotta have ice to have precip is Arizona, mostly.

1:21 PM. Larger patch of Cumulus, spreading out due to a "stable layer" has reached upward to begin forming some ice. That fallout of ice is causing the base to look a little too smooth. If you can detect this, you have reached the pinnacle of cloud maven-ness. — 1:21 PM. Larger patch of Cumulus, spreading out due to a “stable layer” has reached upward to begin forming some ice. That fallout of ice is causing the base to look a little too smooth. If you can detect this, you have reached the pinnacle of cloud maven-ness. Its just beginning to come out, very hard to detect at this point, more obvious in minutes. Even I wasn’t sure at this point, but hedged an opinion about it to myself.

1:42 PM. Same patch trailing ice, though not much. Still a difficult proposition to see it. — 1:42 PM. Same patch trailing ice, though barely. Still a difficult proposition to see it. Its just SLIGHTLY frizzy/fuzzy at the bottom, a look due to low concentrations of single crystals and a few snowflakes.

2:08 PM. Now the presence of ice is obvious. You have a wonderful itty-bitty rain shaft reaching the ground, and an ice veil around the edges of this cloud. Even a little baby could see that there was ice now. — 2:08 PM. Now the presence of ice is obvious. You have a wonderful itty-bitty rain shaft reaching the ground, and an ice veil around the edges (upper left) of this cloud. Even a little baby could see that there was ice now. But as little and as long as it took to form and fallout, you would guess that the top was marginally cold for ice formation, a superb scenario for research aircraft. From last evening’s TUS sounding, looks like they were barely ascending past the -10 C (14 F) level, maybe to -12 C to -13 C here in those tops that overshot a little inversion at -8 C. Those flat-topped Altocumulus clouds that rolled in during the evening as the sun set had tops around -8 C, just a little too warm for ice to form in them.

3:27 PM. But that TUS sounding was not indicative of the air just a 100 or so miles south of us where large and deep Cumulonimbus arose. Can you see a Cb calvus top in this photo? It was pretty exciting to think that air capable of producing large storms was so close after it looked for awhile like a longish dry spell. The moisture was returning faster than models foretold a few days ago.

3:26 PM. — 3:27 PM Zoomed view of distant Cumulonimbus calvus top, far easier to see without the smog of the day before!

Today, the inversion is gone, and dewpoints are increasing all over southern Arizona as we start into a real tropical push. So chances of rain here in Catalina are zooming upward. Should be some nice “Cbs” around.

Tropical storm Lorena is headed toward the tip of Baja and its remnants will come into southern California and Arizona over the next few days. Hang on for some potential mighty rains, something to bring our summer rain season totals to more respectable levels here in Catalina. Very excited, as are all local weather folk!

Also, no end to summer rain season yet appearing in mod run extending out for two weeks (from last evening’s global data crunch). Still seems to hang on, for the most part, through the 20th of September. Excellent.

Canadian dreams

Note: Images did not show up when posted yet are present in draft; first time for this happenstance in WP.

This just in, from last night’s global GEM model run by The Canadians. Using a magnifying glass, you can see that these panels show a tropical storm (now only known as Tropical Depression 12-E) moving into Arizona on the evening of September 9th (the panel with all the red coloring). Hmmm. Something to dream about, a final big greening rain; well, maybe just holding off the crispy period of our vegetation following the summer rains. In any event, the tropical river should be back over us, even if it misses, bringing some more of that summer rain.

The USA! “WRF-GFS” model have no such storm, so there’s no point in showing that model output, though it does get real showery here before and on the 9th. That would be good, too, though not AS GOOD.

Dreaming of what might come will help us get through the mini-drought and several day hot spell we’re now in I think. Today is supposed to be pretty much like yesterday, capped small Cumulus clouds, too small to form ice and precip.

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Yesterday you probably thought there were no Cumulonimbus clouds in sight. Maybe the haze and smoke were too much for you, and looking at local Cumulus clouds with not the slightest inclination to be more than “mediocris”, you gave up looking.

No Cumulonimbus sightings in your weather diary?

I feel sad that you didn’t see them, and you really didn’t need the telescope at the Stewart Observatory, but almost. The smoke and haze, which made the sky whitish, made it a challenge, maybe like seeing a spotted owl in Eugene, OR. Still, they were there. Here’s the physical evidence:

3:43 PM. Hiding through the haze, a Cumulonimbus calvus turrets. Still can’t see ’em?

Same zoomed scene with helpful arrowing.

Where’s all the damn haze and smoke coming from after our stupendously clear days, ironically, during our high humidity and wet spell?

Mexico, after the the air mass has poured across there from Texas. In case you still don’t believe me, take this from ARL:

Back trajectory of the air at 4,000 meters above sea level over Tuscon at 5 PM yesterday. — A 72 hour back trajectory of the air at 4,000 meters above sea level over Tuscon at 5 PM yesterday. Looks like it started out as a mid-level “long range” transport since this suggests that the haze was already up above 5000 meters three days ago.