Temperature records, yesterday’s cloud, and “Phil” or maybe, “Wanda” just ahead

Temperature records have been falling recently, lots of them, you can see them here. This is what the “lobes of anomaly” at 500 millibars and the circulation patterns associated with them did over the past three days. A lot of the cold ones were in Florida, as you will see. Too bad for those people in Florida who went there instead of to Arizona to escape winter cold. Their whole spring break vacation was probably ruined, if its spring break now. The Arizona Chamber of Commerce should be advertising heavily in Florida right now! “Sad about being in Florida on your vacation? Well, its not too late to come to Arizona where its warm, not cold!” (We won’t mention our recent snow, of course.)

Yesterday’s cloud

Being cloud-centric, thought you’d want to see it¹.

2:23 PM. Cumulus humilis. Kind of cute, sitting there, trying to be the best it can be.

The storm ahead

Seems to be getting bigger in the Canadian model as time goes by, and so I thought I would allude to that before you even read what I was going to say with a fatter sub-title having color, one then filled with portent.

This Storm (yes, that’s right, I’ve improperly capitalized the word “storm”; I do a LOT of improper things with language here) is now going to be so great it may get its own name, like “Phil” or “Wanda.” Years later: “Remember how Phil saved our spring vegetation back in ’13? Put a dent in the drought we were having?”

Check the load indicated in the Enviro Can mod below, those accumulations expected by 5 PM AST, Friday, March 8th. This is stupendous. Notice the Canadians have gone from the usual green, maybe a little yellow, to seeing red in the amounts of precip for this storm. I was beside myself when I saw it, because when you live in a desert, you kind of expect storms to become less rather than more in the models. Should be some thunder in it, too. This will be a real chance to get above normal rain here in Catalina for the month of March (1.46 inch average) in one load spanning two days. Notice, too, how the whole Southwest benefits from this Goliath. Will it be a trillion dollar crop-saving storm like the one at the end of January? Might be, since crop-saving rains move out into those droughty areas of the Plains States, like Nebraska. Hooray! Literally millions of people will be made happy by this storm!

Also, when you have a great storm, meteorologists like me become important, too, and so a great storm is great for us since we might dominate the news, not just be an itty bitty after thought. Our favorite expression: “The one behind this one is even BIGGER.”

Unfortunately, there is no storm after this one, so let’s hope we get all that it can be from it.

In fact, as an impersonator of a true scientist, I have to report that the USA! WRF-GFS model makes this only a million dollar, oh, maybe a billion dollar storm (might not get its own name). Much less precip is indicated in our models, ones based on the SAME data as that in the Canadian model below, that from last evening’s global observations made at 5 PM AST. Not even going to show that output. Not happy.

Still sticking with 0.25 inches as bottom of this storm (bad things happen to it) and 1.00 inches at the top (that is, ten percent chance of less; ten percent chance of more, as perceived from this keyboard). Best guess median of these: about 0.60 inches, or about the same amount of liquid as the historic snowstorm produced on Feb. 20th.

Still looking forward to this.

The End.

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¹ Testing 1-2-3. There was some Cirrus, too, visible in the photo, and several other Cu humilis, along with their little brothers, Cumulus fractus.

Some answers to pop ice quiz yesterday and, enhanced science content

I thought today I would provide some answers to yesterday’s pop “ice-Q” quiz a new expression I just now made up except that I just now also found out that its already “out there” for a computer graphics card and some refrigerators.

But ignoring that fact completely, you might try using it in a sentence today: “My ice-Q level is gradually getting higher these days. I’ve been working on it for some time now.” Lot easier to say than “ice IQ.” Thanks in advance for using “ice-Q” in a sentence today! You’ll have to make it clear that you’re not referring to a graphics enhancing video card or to overclocking a computer and a refrigerator of some kind.

I thought, too, that maybe I need more science content; maybe I’m kidding around too much, teasing you with droll, well, maybe sophomoric humor, and ludicrously WRONG content, like indicating on a diagram that the Equator goes through Hawaii and that the day of the week changes when you cross the Equator. That was so funny! (Or was it?) ((Well, I laughed…)) (((Hmmmmm…maybe a laugh track¹would help, like on all those TEEVEE shows that seem to indicate that America has the sense of humor of a moron.))) ((((Is this too strong?))))

So, today I thought I would ramp up the science content, give you something a little heavier to think about, give the old noggin’ some real exercise. Below, from Agee et al. in the February 15 issue of Science just out. I put it in extra big letters so you won’t miss anything:

Its about a bit of Mars found in Morocco at something like the Tucson Gem and Mineral show. If you ever dreamed of being a spaceperson and wanted to go to Mars to see what’s like, you don’t have to go. Some of its already here. Seems the planet was shooting stuff at us, oh, maybe “2.089” billion years ago. Some of Mars is at lot closer than you think, too. Its just over in New Mexico at the UNM Meteoritic Museum in ABQ! How great is that?

Some answers

Below, some of the very SAME photos you saw yesterday with arrows and writing on them. OK, I am repeating things. But you know what, life is a lot easier when you repeat things rather than have to think up new things.

End of answers.

Now I will look at the weather way ahead…

First, I did see a bunch of NOAA tornado watches out associated with our cold trough, now those watches are for central Florida, so it was good to hear that other than a scare, some big ones didn’t occur. You can get all the warnings and watches here, BTW.

Nothing out there, really, for us for two weeks or more. A close call for precip and another cold surge happens around the 9-10th of March, that’s about it.

Oh, me, another LONG dry spell ahead. Are we REALLY going to have a third drier-than-normal late winter and spring in a row? Sure looks like it now with February on line to be just short of an inch compared with our inch and a half average. Dang.

With no weather ahead, will likely hibernate for awhile. Watch some TEEVEE (hahahaha).

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¹Try “hysterical at this site.

Pancakes with ice; testing your ice IQ

AKA, Cumulus humilis virgae, or, with virga. While there were plenty of small Cumulus around yesterday, it wasn’t until after 1 PM that trace amounts of virga could be seen starting to emit from them as they got colder during the day. I think I did, too. By the end of the day, cloud BOTTOMS of those little clouds were about -20 C (-4 F)! Poor guys. Tops were likely only a little cooler, at -22 or -23 C. Those Stratocumulus bottoms topping the mountains in the third photo were about -5 C (23 F) already.

Here’s what happened yesterday. First, the tail of the frontal cloud band came by, dropped a few flakes on the Catalinas before rushing off. Here is that precip, barely detectable on the Tucson radar:

1. 7:43 AM. A haze caused by falling snow tops Samaniego Ridge. Ms.Lemmon is obscured.

2. 8:43 AM. The dramatic looking backside of the frontal cloud band (looks like merged different layers of Stratocumulus) closes the book on precip. The lack of precip suggests cloud tops are warmer than -10 C.

3. 9:06 AM. Final goodbye. Crenelated tops of castellanus, kind of cute, nice looking I thought. Stratocumulus clouds now top Samaniego Ridge, no precip evident, just cloud bases, but you knew that. I think its great I’ve taught you SO MUCH!

12:01 PM. Cumulus fractus amid the dust. Twin Peaks was obscured for awhile as the gusty winds developed later in the morning. — 4. 12:01 PM. Cumulus fractus amid the dust. Twin Peaks were obscured briefly in dust as the gusty winds developed later in the morning.

5. 12:41 PM. Pancakes over the Catalinas, hold the ice.

1:16 PM. Then the ice! Can you find it? More educational than "Where's Waldo", though both are good for the brain. — 6. 1:16 PM. Then the ice! Can you find it? More educational than “Where’s Waldo”, though both are good for the brain. 15 points.

7. 1:24 PM. Some more of that ice. This should be a little easier to find, but not really easy. Remember, ice means precip in these clouds! 15 points.

1:31 PM. Its still dusty, windy, I've been sitting out in it now for almost 2 h making this ice ID test up. This is the next level of detection. Can you find the ice amid a dusty sky? 10 points. — 8. 1:31 PM. Its still dusty, windy, I’ve been sitting out in it now for almost 2 h making this ice ID test up. This is the next level of detection. Can you find the ice amid a dusty sky? 10 points.

2:12 PM. Find the ice. Another tough one worth 10 points. — 9. 2:12 PM. Another tough one worth 10 points. The Catalinas are still so pretty with those cloud shadows traversing across them.

10. 2:42 PM. A lot more ice, but farther away. This was part of a southward moving snow band that dissipated before reaching the Catalinas. 5 points.

4:45 PM. Where's the ice? 1 point. — 11. 4:45 PM. Where’s the ice? 1 point.

Extra credit:

What are the concentrations of ice particles in those clouds shown at 1:16 PM through 2:12 PM, photos Nos. 6-9? How about in the last two photos? 25 points.

Answer: Probably less than 5 per liter of those larger than, say, 150 microns in maximum dimension in 6-9, likely 10s per liter in photos Nos. 10-11.

Why know something as arcane as this?

Because it impresses the neighbors, for one thing, because then you can go on and on about the Wegner-Bergeron-Findeisen precipitation mechanism in “mixed phase” clouds, or simply impugn them, with the words from the Walt Disney Studios science song lyric in “Water Cycle Jump¹“;

“Your brain is on vacation/if you don’t know about precipitation.”

Second, if you’re into “vigilante science”, as Mr. Cloud Maven person was in parts of his science career, knowing concentrations of ice in clouds by sight will help you clean up some of the messes in the domain of cloud seeding when people report concentrations of ice that are too low. But an extra low ice concentration report benefits them because it helps make the clouds seem like they need some of that seeding to make ice and then more precipitation. Then a big contract is let based on bogus cloud reports, ones that you damn well know are goofy just by looking at the clouds, or checking out rawinsonde cloud tops when its raining from them… I could go on, and on, and on….. Someday…will tell those stories.

I hope that helps explain why this is important. If not, oh well.

The weather way ahead.

Well, you all know about the hot ahead. Now some rain pixels have shown up on March 10th. Not worth showing, but will keep an eye on them.

————

I am euphoric that this song is now online! I loved that song! Gritty but great, except the part where it is asserted that condensation leads to precipitation. Condensation (and the ice form of “deposition”) is only the first step. Also, if you like easy listening, boring music, don’t go to this site; it might be too much for you.

Condensation by itself can NEVER lead to precipitation. You got to have ice or those larger cloud droplets (again, let us call to mind, Hocking, 1959, Jonas and Hocking 1970 was it?) that cloud droplets do not stick together UNLESS they are around 38 um in diameter and larger, and then there have to be quite a lot of those that size and larger to “bump and stick” (sounds like volleyball) to form a true raindrop (mm sizes). You see, cloud droplets pretty much stop growing due to condensation at sizes TOO SMALL to fall out of a cloud as precip! They’d evaporate in the first 50 feet out the cloud bottom. NEVER forget that as a cloud maven junior!

Smoke attack

It was hard to see all the smoke around yesterday morning after the two previous stunning days with high visibility. I was thinking I had never seen so much smoke in Catalina as I saw yesterday morning. Here is some photos of that awful event:

7:56 AM. Heavy dark smoke layer evident to SW. Some Stratus clouds also were present.

8:40 AM. Normally, in my experience here, such smoke is husbanded to that region south of Pusch Ridge. But no, not yesterday, its HERE! What an awful view this was!

8:45 AM. In this photo not taken while driving, you can see that there are TWO plumes the lower one drifting south from the area of the Golder Ranch-Sutherland Wash development of expensive custom homes that might have been burning wood for heat, while aloft is another plume. I could not tell where that came from, even in this time lapse from the U of AZ. Note how the Stratus clouds in the morning change direction in movement. — 8:45 AM. In this photo not taken while driving¹, you can see that there are TWO plumes the lower one drifting south from the area of the Golder Ranch-Sutherland Wash development of expensive custom homes, some of which might have been burning wood for heat, or something else woody, while aloft is a second, separate plume. I could not tell where the higher one came from, even in this time lapse from the U of AZ. Note how in the movie the Stratus clouds in the morning change direction in movement. The movement at first is from the west-northwest (left to right), and those clouds contained the higher smog layer. So, could it have been from PHX??? ———– ¹Smokey the Bear reminds drivers that only you can prevent smoky, well, a lot of it anyway.

In the afternoon, the smog was gone, mixed through a greater depth, the layering destroyed by the convection, those rising currents and compensating downward ones, that cream any morning layering. The dilution effect, and it also could have been that the aerosol load (smog) decreased with time, made things look much more clear. To this eye, there was still a lot of smog present, just diluted in the space between the ground and the bases of these small Cumulus clouds shown below. Still, there were so many pretty scenes on this horseback ride with a friend that I took more than 100 photos! Some water was present in some of the little washes, always nice to encounter, and some vividly green spots of of emerging growth (shown last).

The final point worth mentioning for pedantic reasons, is that yesterday afternoon’s TUS sounding indicated the same cloud top temperatures as the day before, about -12 to -13 C. Yet, there was no ice dropping out of those clouds. The day before, with the SAME cloud top temperature, ice and virga were widespread.

What’s up with that?

Ah, the complexities of ice formation in clouds!

When clouds are small and have a lot of droplets per liter in them, likely hundreds of thousands yesterday, given all the smog around, the drops end up being especially small because so many form on some of the smog particles (called “cloud condensation nuclei”).

In repeated flights at the University of Washington, we found that the resistance to form ice is dependent on not just on temperature, once thought to be the sole controller of ice formation, but droplet sizes in clouds as well. Small droplets sizes in clouds meant they were less likely to form ice, given the SAME cloud top temperature. Altocumulus lenticularis clouds are the poster child for ice formation resistance in clouds with their tiny drops, often having to be colder than -30 C before ice forms. On the other hand, clouds in the pristine Arctic around Barrow in the summer time, over the oceans away from continents, and in deep, warm based clouds even polluted ones, form ice at temperatures higher than -10 C when the drops in the clouds are large and have reached precipitation sizes (more than 100 microns in diameter to millimeter sizes).

So, it seems likely that yesterday, our shallower, pollutted clouds had smaller droplets in them than those deeper, less polluted clouds of the prior day in which we saw so much ice form in the later afternoon with about the same cloud top temperatures as yesterday. It is also the case, that when clouds are in large patches as they were the day before, that ice formation has more time to take place, and that, too, may be a factor.

Complicated enough? Yep.

2:18 PM. In the Catalina Mountains on the way to Deer Camp trail. Cumulus humilis dot skies. No ice evident. — 2:52 PM. In the Catalina Mountains on the back from the Deer Camp trail. Cumulus humilis dot skies. No ice evident.

2:18 PM. Cumulus humilis sitting around over Sutherland Heights, and the Oro Valley

The weather ahead

After another round of cold, this one dry cold just ahead for us, the heat is on by early March, and along with that heat in most of the West in early March, likely record cold in portions of the East. Check this 500 mb map out for the afternoon of March 2nd, produced by last night’s WRF-GFS model run at 5 PM AST, rendered by IPS MeteoStar:

Look at the size of that cold trough and low center! Huge!

That isn’t the only weather news ahead, cold in the East, warm in the West in March. Our upcoming cold shock that hits on Sunday, is caused by an unusually powerful upper trough that dips down into Texas after it blows by us, then roars northeastward across the South on Monday and Tuesday. Expect to read about godawful tornadoes in the South on Monday and/or Tuesday.

The End.

Snow and golf; a brief tirade, and yesterday’s clouds and why

I smiled seeing the groundskeepers scurrying about, sweeping and scraping snow off the courses and environs at the Dove Mountain golf tournament yesterday. I was smiling because the golf culture here is so different from that in Seattle, Washington, much more “pampering” here. Due to frequent inclement weather in Seattle, we have to toughen our skins against weather if we want to play golf. Rain? Snow? No problem.

In Seattle, golf season begins on March 1st. That’s because in March in Seattle, its only raining (or occasionally snowing) on every other day by then, not every day, as earlier in the winter.

So we’re going golfing on March 1st, dammitall, no matter what!

So shop keepers like this one below on Aurora Avenue in the north end of Seattle, knowing that Seattle golf culture, exult with big signs like this one when March 1st arrives!

The golf weather culture in Seattle, Washington as represented by this sign. — The golf weather culture in Seattle, Washington, as represented by this sign. Photo by the writer, March 1st, 1990.

Inaccuracy in media re Catalina snowfall or maybe it wasn’t: a tirade

I was thinking that maybe a tirade would be a nice change of pace for you before some cloud discussions.

First, since I heard a weather presenter report that “2 inches” of snow fell in Catalina, a visual correction to that report. There was FOUR inches on the ground after settling/melting during the day and night of the 20-21st. If there is FOUR inches the following morning, it HAD to have snowed quite a bit MORE than FOUR inches! (The total depth of snow that fell was 5.5 inches here on Wilds Road).

Here is the proof, 4 inches of depth as measured by a raingauge dip stick, one tenth inch markers are 1 inch in length–I didn’t have a regular ruler. Some of the labels indicating light amounts of rain have worn off while the stick was being used in Seattle for 32 years, so you’ll have to count down from the 1.00, 90, 80 hundredths labels, ones clearly visible. For added proof I have added a second photo, and if you call now, you’ll get a third photo free plus for $75 for handling and shipping…

8:41 AM, February 21st. A raingauge measuring stick protrudes from a FOUR-inch depth of snow on a hitching post (where some snow could have even slipped off, or blew off!) — 7:02 AM, February 21st. A raingauge measuring stick protrudes from a FOUR-inch depth of snow on a hitching post (where some snow could have even slipped off, or blew off!)

7:04 AM. A slightly higher depth on a second hitching post--oh, yeah, leading the big western life here in Arizony. — 7:04 AM. A slightly higher depth on a second hitching post–oh, yeah, leading the big western life here in Arizony with a horse and hitching posts.

I felt sad, though, remembering the words of humorist Dave Barry, speaking to the National Press Club back in ’91 I think it was, when he diverged from humor into a serious note, admonishing his Press Club Audience: “Why can’t we get it right?¹”

Maybe in our case of the missing snow, it was because the person that called in the report was not a Cloud Maven Junior, and did not know how to measure snow. Maybe less actually fell where that person was (unlikely). Let us not forget that the snow on a flat board in Sutherland Heights, above Catalina proper, measured at nearly the same time as this, was SIX inches!

Yesterday’s clouds, and those snow-covered mountains

While it was sad to see so much snow disappear so fast, it was, overall, another gorgeous day in a long nearly continuous series of ones since the beginning of time here in Arizona, except maybe for those days of upheavals and dinosaurs and then when it was underwater, a remnant of the latter epoch as shown here in this fossil of a hydrosaurus, a precursor to grain eating critters like the Perissodactylas we have today…(horseys and such). As you can see, the teeth here were for eating something like mueslix, not for ripping flesh. I can’t believe all the information I am providing you today!

Possible hydrosaurus fossil encountered on a hike in Catalina State Park. Finding was reported to park rangers. — Possible hydrosaurus fossil encountered on a hike in Catalina State Park (still checking on what it is). Finding was reported to park rangers.

Here are some shots with some notes on them or in the captions. First those MOUNTAINS!

8:21 AM, February 20th, looking east from Sutherland Heights, which had SIX INCHES of snow on the ground at this time. Stratocumulus clouds top Samaniego Ridge.

9:13 AM. THe snowy Tortolita Mountains with some Altocumulus perlucidus above. — 9:13 AM. The snowy Tortolita Mountains with some Altocumulus perlucidus above.

2:25 PM. With most of the snow already gone around Catalina, the majestic Catalina Mountains remind us of our great snowstorm and why we live here. — 2:25 PM. With most of the snow already gone around Catalina, the majestic Catalina Mountains remind us of our great February 20th snowstorm and why we live here.

2:26 PM. While it was serene-looking over the Catalinas, to the southwest the sky was filling in with Cumulus and slightly higher Stratocumulus clouds. Why don't you see virga even though we know they are at below freezing temperatures? In unison: NO ICE! — 2:26 PM. While it was serene-looking over the Catalinas, to the southwest the sky was filling in with Cumulus and slightly higher Stratocumulus clouds. Why don’t you see virga even though we know they are at below freezing temperatures? In unison: “NO ICE!” (Tops too warm and cloud droplets likely on the small side.) This was to change in the next couple of hours.

3:24 PM. But first, another look at the Catalinas from Shroeder Ave because I think its worth it before continuing. — 3:24 PM. But first, another look at the Catalinas from Shroeder Ave in Catalina because I think its worth it before continuing. Golder Ranch Drive is on the far left.

5:25 PM. Clearly there has been a change in the temperatures at the tops of these clouds, likely now colder than -10 C. A trough of colder air was approaching aloft, and that likely lifted and cooled cloud tops. The cloud layer was due mostly to the spreading out of Cumulus tops (Stratocumulus cumulogenitus). The TUS sounding indicated cloud tops were around -12 C, capped by a very strong stable layer. — 5:25 PM. Clearly there has been a change in the temperatures at the tops of these clouds, likely now colder than -10 C. A trough of colder air was approaching aloft, and that likely lifted and cooled cloud tops. The cloud layer was due mostly to the spreading out of Cumulus tops (Stratocumulus cumulogenitus). The TUS sounding indicated cloud tops were about -13 C, capped by a very strong stable layer. There was a fall of sparse drops around this time, so some of it was getting to the ground.

The weather ahead

Cold then HOT. Hot when? Heat’s on already by March 1st for sure. Look at this “signal” in our trusty NOAA “ensembles of spaghetti” from last night:

: Valid for 5 PM AST, March 1st. You won’t see a signal stronger than this one for 8 days from now. Likely will reach into the 80s when this ridge of warm air is fully developed.

The End, at last. Anyone still there?

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¹Deadlines have a way of getting in the way of “truth.”

Morning smog bank invades Catalina, smokes up clouds real good

I wonder if you noticed the blackish smog layer to the south and southwest of Catalina yesterday? Usually it stays down that way, flowing peacefully toward the northwest from Tucson across Marana and Avra Valley, an area where a close meteorologist friend and his wife just bought a house even though they knew this happens in winter and not one in Catalina where we normally escape this characteristic Tucson smog plume. They must like winter smog overhead, but then as the sun heats the ground, it comes down to you. Go figure.

Here is yesterday’s Tucson smog plume exiting Tucson:

8:47 AM. Smog plume exiting Tucson, moving left to right over Twin Peaks area. This was one of the densest, most awful ones I’ve seen from Catalina.

But then, in the later morning hours, a southerly wind brought that smog bank to our normally clear air oasis of Catalina, infecting the shallow Cu fractus clouds that formed as the sun heated the ground. This was a real disappointment since probably most of us were expecting the kind of pristine view of the Catalinas yesterday morning.

10:09 AM. Smoke-filled Cumulus fractus clouds form along the Catalinas as the air begins to warm. — 10:09 AM. Smoke-filled Cumulus fractus clouds. The smog looks white here instead of dark because of “forward scattering”; the white light of the sun is being scattered in the viewer’s direction by the smoke particles. (In the first photo, there was no forward scattering and so you can see the actual dark hydrocarbony smoke particles for what they are, dark and sooty.

Fortunately the smog was dispersed as the day wore on. As the layer in which it is contained gets deeper, and without more smog being added to it, the amount of smog, say, per cubic mile diminishes and pretty soon it gets so thin you can’t detect it with your eyes. Still, exactly the same amount might be in the column of air between you and the higher cloud bottoms. Here’s what it looked like in the later afternoon:

4:29 PM. That's better! Cumulus humilis dot skies. — 4:29 PM. That’s better! Cumulus humilis dot skies.

BTW, while its easy to see that the Cumulus fractus clouds in the second photo are very low, in the 3rd photo above it’s much harder to detect how high these small Cumulus are. The TUS sounding indicated that they topped out at 9,000 feet, or only about the same height as Ms. Mt. Lemmon! Top temperatures in these smoke-filled clouds were no colder than about -8 C (about 20 F), too warm for ice to form in them, especially when the cloud droplets are reduced in size by smog. The larger the cloud droplets, the higher the temperature at which ice begins to form in them, and so smog generally reduces the chance of rain in shallower clouds.

This is why oceanic clouds in pristine regions lacking smog, even shallow ones, rain or drizzle so easily. The cloud droplets are much larger in those clouds right from the get go than those in smoggy regions. So oceanic clouds can rain either because those larger cloud drops reach sizes where they can collide and stick together, forming larger drops that can fall out (“warm rain process”) or form ice at the highest temperatures known for ice formation, -4 to -5 C (23-25 F). Usually both processes are work in those ocean clouds that rain so efficiently. They’re pretty great, really, such little clouds that rain.

Vacation in Hawaii if you’d like to see some up close (though not downwind of the Kilauea volcano plume and in the lee of the Big Island of Hawaii since that volcanic plume can smoke up the clouds real bad there and they stop being so darn efficient as rain producers. Recall that the biggest drop in the world was measured in clouds in Hawaii (1 cm in diameter, Beard, private communication, received AFTER Peter Hobbs and me got the Guinness record for the biggest drop ever measured, 8.6 mm in diameter–got a lotta publicity around the world, too, calls came from everywhere!).

You see, Beard didn’t publish anything about HIS BIG DROP; we published ours in a refereed journal. “Neeny, neeny, neeny”, I think is what you conclude here. Immaturity: sometimes I think its not valued enough in life.

That’s what its like in academia; you publish or die! Die that slow death as an “Assistant Associate” professor of something, never reaching the exalted “Professor” status.

The “combo” ice seen yesterday morning

We had two forms of ice yesterday morning that you may have noticed, say, on your car if it was parked outside overnight. There were originally rain drops left from the storm that froze in place during the cold night (was 30 F here yesterday morning), and then the deposited ice from water vapor on top of the drops.

The deposition process, as we call it, leads to hoar frost ice crystals growing in time as the molecules of water vapor add to it during the night. This combo ice led to an unusual site on the car before the sun did away with it. Here are a couple of shots of this unusual sight:

9:57 AM. "Strange brew." — 9:57 AM. “Strange brew.”

The weather ahead

After the “sunny malaise” for 5-6 days, with Arizonans statewide out doing things, its back to the Bowl, the trough bowl. The period we’re in now might be called, “a sucker ridge”, a high pressure ridge that is. You might well think, “Well, that’s it for winter in Arizona!” after a few days of the “sunny malaise”, but you’d be WRONG. I can’t emphasize the word, “wrong” enough. The Bowl comes back with a vengeance, too, when it reforms here in the Southwest; there will be one storm and cold blast after another. If you’re a snowbird, you might start to cry, and wonder why you didn’t go to Costa Rica for the winter.

Well, I am looking forward to storms and seeing more scenes of white mountains deep in snow, and green vegetation shooting skyward. That’s the promise of the “Bowl” ahead, where storms collect, in the weeks ahead right into March.

Taking a few days off now, likely without pay, to replenish mind, get out and do things like the rest of Arizonans will. Will give you time to ruminate on all that’s been said here over the past year or so, correct and incorrect, mature and immature…

The End.

Stratiform clouds bring steady rain and snow; sixteen hundredths to Catalina

“Sixteen hundredths”, originally a song by a boy group of that day so long ago, The Crests, about a light rain that fell in May in southern California, an event that is quite rare and exciting at that time of the year there. But then practical and marketing considerations caused the song to be revised to one about candles of all things. How odd. I thought you might like to know some reliable history behind that venerable song, one that made us cry, it was so sweet, and think about, as boys, how much we liked girls when WE were sixteen or so.

Yesterday, while Mr. CMP (“cloud maven person”, but using acronym in trying to be as indirect as possible here) was making some fun of students mixing up units in their calculations of pressure at various heights in the atmosphere, he himself was mixing up cloud “units”, by informing his reader that cumuliform clouds, some dropping graupel, would be seen over Catalina yesterday, not stratiform, sky-covering Altocumulus, followed by great masses of Stratocumulus underneath it, combining later with gray, dank, Altostratus, a scene that finally evolved in the mid-day hours into Nimbostratus with light rain, sometimes with light snow mixed in! Briefly, too, it was ALL “surprise” snow!

The total, 0.16 inches, was also about sixteen times more than CMP thought would fall from that perceived marginal weather producer. (Note: the U of AZ local model’s 11 PM run the night before had it predicted perfectly! However, in some kind of bloated self-evaluation of skill levels, CMP did not consult that model until it was “too late.”) Today, I am quite confident, however, that I really don’t need to look at that model…

What is going on here? Fallibility, I calls it, human fallibility. Remember that old saying about pencils with erasers at the end? So simple and yet, profound.

Oh, well. All’s well that ends well, and the “well” ending was one of a nice little rain mixed with snow (will burn your CMJ tee if you refer to rain mixed with snow as “sleet”!) and beautiful snow down on the Catalinas, so pretty yesterday evening as the clouds lifted.

Today a fine day with small Cumulus clouds, very photogenic again as this kind of wintertime day is here. The mountains should be spectacular, too, due to the cold air that remains that will allow them to be white down low for a few hours this morning.

Pima County precip totals here.

Precip totals from the U of AZ rainlog.org network here and the national CoCoRahs org here for AZ totals. The measrements at rainlog will indicate that they are for yesterday, the 11th, while the CoCoRahs convention, to assign the rain to the date it was reported, will show the totals for our storm using today’s date, the 12th. You’ll have to wait until about 8-10 AM to get most of the loggers’ reports.

The most I saw in the Pima County gage network was 0.43 inches, an amazing amount, down in Avra Valley. Shocking, really.

BTW, the cloud regime that CMP foresaw for Catalinaland was just to the west of us, around Ajo, AZ, not that far away astronomically speaking. And at sunset yesterday, you could see those Cumulonimbus clouds on the horizon coming into view.

5:53 PM. The forecasted Cumulonimbus clouds begin to come into view. — 5:53 PM. The forecasted Cumulonimbus clouds for Catalina begin to come into view. I wish I could make this image bigger, maybe in 3-D so you could “feel” this cloud coming at you.

To cry-baby about it a bit more about a missed cloud forecast, this “visible” wavelength satellite image:

Some un-Cumulus scenes from yesterday:

10:30 AM. Altocumulus perlucidus undulatus and Stratocumulus begin overspreading the sky.

11:41 AM. Dark bases of Stratocumulus-Cumulus line up with the wind and head toward Catalina. Virga spews in the distance on the right. Above these clouds was an icy layer of Altostratus.

11:58 PM. Mounding tops of Stratocumulus-embedded Cumulus become infected with ice and spew forth virga. Now under this guy, there may well have been a couple of graupel. — 11:58 PM. Mounding tops of Stratocumulus or embedded Cumulus become infected with ice and spew forth virga. Now under this guy, there may well have been a couple of graupel. Above these clouds was an icy layer of Altostratus that helped impregnate the lower Stratocu and Cu with ice, kind of like seeding them.

1:17 PM. The lumpy and dark looking bases had disappeared in the virga and snow falling from the thickening Altostratus layer as it became, Nimbostratus. What you're looking at here is a classic example of snow melting into rain that appears to be the base of the cloud, but its really a transition zone that reveals the snow level. — 1:17 PM. The lumpy and dark looking bases had disappeared in the virga and snow falling from the thickening Altostratus layer as it became, Nimbostratus. What you’re looking at here is a classic example of snow melting into rain that appears to be the base of the cloud, but its really a transition zone that reveals the snow level.

3:14 PM. Snowing hard in Catalina for a few minutes. Here's what it looks like, coming down at you. Some aggregates of snowflakes were more than an inch across. — 3:14 PM. Snowing hard in Catalina for a few minutes. Here’s what it looks like, coming down at you. Some aggregates of snowflakes were more than an inch across.

5:42 PM. The result of our little storm on the Catalina Mountains, Samaniego Ridge.

The weather ahead into March

Gotta ride the storms, ones already predicted as of yesterday here over the latter half of this month. Never good to “yo-yo” on a forecast, as forecasters will tell you.

However, not getting help again in this longer range musing from the NOAA ensembles of spaghetti; site is still down, so riding bareback here so-to-speak, using a western idiom (or is it “idiot”?) In sum, Arizona to end up with above normal precip when whole state considered. This due to being in the bowl, the trough bowl, though breaks in storms, and nice weather, sometimes for several days at a time, will try to fool you into thinking you’re not.

Going farther out on a limb, twig, really, looks like the active storminess will continue well into March. We seem now to have a wet pattern going, though in a desert, its not THAT wet compared to Washington State or elsewhere. Stand by for occasional updates. Am excited for wildflowers now; there may be some!

The End.

Knock, knock…. Who’s there?

Cold slam!

But first, continuing from yesterday: “…and a few small to moderate sized Cumulus (humilis and mediocris) clouds as well to go with the high and middle clouds.”

Sorry I took so long to finish that up, but it was worth the effort because it was pretty darn accurate.

The storm on the doorstep

Here is your very excellent Catalina forecast as of now (4:50 AM) from the computers at the NWS. There is a statement on the exciting New Mexico weather, posted by the Tucson NWS here. You can feel the excitement in NM in this message they consider quite special, labeling it a “Special Statement.” Hope our Arizona guys and gals get on board with the NWS in ABQ and issue something special soon! Being weathercentric, of course, I am at one with the ABQ office even now.

Here’s a depiction of the incoming storm from our best model, that at the U of AZ, one that downsizes the “WRF-GFS” model to smaller scales so we can see what happens in our local mountains and valleys as it barges across California and then into Arizona on Saturday. Precip is shown to begin on the Catalinas before dawn on Saturday, but probably won’t reach here for a few hours after that. The model onset time here in Catalina is 8 AM AST on Saturday. However, this model tends to run a bit fast in these situations, so it may be mid-morning before those cold, cold raindrops start falling. But, 8 AM vs maybe 11 AM AST? Amazingly close no matter how you put it. It just shows how good our modeling systems have gotten over the years.

The amounts? Seems measurable rain is certain here in Catalina–the flow pattern jetting against this side of the Catalina Mountains favors us here. The finest scale model at the U of AZ, the first place to look, is showing a range of values between 0.25 and 0.50 inches, oddly corresponding with a ludicrous guess made too far in advance here a few days ago. Hmmm. The Catalinas are shown to get more than an inch and that calls for a celebration.

Here is the scoop from the 11 PM AST U of AZ model run for total precip (snow on the Catalinas again, the best kind of precip because it just sits there and soaks in when melting):

Valid at 10 PM Saturday the 10th. — Valid at 2 AM AST Sunday the 10th, the storm is long gone from Catalina at this time but still adding some in the mountains up to about here.

Out of character a bit, but also since we’re on the edge of the predicted range of amounts, I think the bottom is closer to 0.08 and the top likely amount is 0.38 inches, with a “median”, most likely amount of about 0.23 inches, to be a little silly here.

Clouds today?

Probably (and this time I will examine the TUS sounding more carefully than yesterday), just a few isolated Cumulus clouds again, likely dissipating during the afternoon, and a couple of Cirrus clouds.

The clouds tomorrow (more interesting)

One of the interesting cloud formation zones for Arizona is over and downwind of the mountains in northern Baja (Sierra de Baja California). Gigantic plumes of Cirrus/Altostratus ice clouds often form in these situations as moisture at high levels from the Pacific Ocean (located west of Baja, California) travels over those mountains. Those clouds would be something akin to standing wave clouds, lenticulars, but because the air is pretty moist (“ice saturated”) wrapping around this powerful low, they don’t evaporate downstream once having formed but end up as a huge, icy plume across central and southern Arizona. I think we’ll can see that start to happen today, first in the lee of the Sierras of California, as the jet stream works it way down the West Coast toward us.

Eventually, the higher level moisture dries out over those Baja mountains, as it will later tomorrow, and the icy plumage source ends, and many times we see the end of that plume from those Baja mountains (Cirrus/Altostratus clouds) as a huge clearing that, oddly, preceeds the real storm; the surge of lower level clouds that carry the precip. And with that clearing as well, the passage of the core of the jet stream (in the middle levels) above us.

I know many of you have seen this sequence over and over again, the clearing of a high dense layer of clouds from the actual storm that’s on its heels.

Such a separation in those two clouds systems, the high and the low, can lead to spectacular Catalina sunsets. Tomorrow, out on a limb here, is the kind of day where that could happen–the sun sets in the distant clearing to the west as the shield of icy plumage overhead passes.

Yesterday’s clouds

Yesterday was another one of those especially gorgeous days here in the wintertime. Delicate patterns in Cirrus, as well as the dense patches. Then, a few lower Altocumulus clouds above scattered small to medium Cumulus clouds against a vivid blue sky and limitless horizontal visibility. Here are some examples:

7:47 AM. Old Cirrus (foggy stuff above palm tree) below newly formed Cirrus (flocculent, specks). — 7:47 AM. Old Cirrus (foggy stuff above palm tree) below in altitude newly formed Cirrus (flocculent specks to left and right).

10:34 AM. — 10:31 AM. Only the exceptional cloud maven junior would have noticed this rogue Altocumulus castellanus masquerading as a Cumulus. Its betrayed by those specks of Ac floccus around it. Also, if there was a true Cu fractus nearby, you would have noticed a tremendous difference in the relative movement of the much higher Ac cloud and the real Cu.

12:02 PM. Last of the high clouds (Cirrus spissatus) approach Catalina with Cumulus fractus and humilis starting to form.

2:36 PM. One of the best shots of the day; small Cumulus with a trace of Altocumulus perlucidus above.

5:51 PM. Though it was clear to the west, we still had our sunset color on the Catalinas, and an orange reflection on the bases of the last clouds hanging on above them.

Kind of rushing around today, hope this is intelligible….

The End.

Sunset color today?

First, yesterday’s interesting clouds:

Earlier Today

You will soon notice a nice sunrise with a sky full of clouds, Cirrus-ee ones, Altostratus, some Altocumulus tending toward lenticulars (red denotes cloud forms added after the sun came up and I saw them.)

I am late today, not because I overslept some, but also because I wanted to post a great sunrise photo for you.

You know, its all about YOU again, isn’t it? Maybe you should step back and think about that for a second…ask yourself just where your life is going? Thanks in advance for doing that!

Here is this morning’s nice sunrise, Altostratus clouds with virga:

When you see this morning’s clouds, and the great sunrise, no doubt you will be thinking along the lines of a great sunset today as well.

But you’d be so WRONG!

Using a technique developed here, you can foretell where the back side of today’s band of high and, later, middle clouds will be quite accurately. You won’t need the Titan supercomputer to do it, though it would be nice if you had one. Will reprise that methodology for you:

1. First go to, say, a web site having infrared image loops, such as here in purple and gold Huskyland up there in the wet Pac NW

2. Select a loop that you like that shows the clouds to the west of us, such as the one I have selected for you.

3. Stop the loop at a time period not less than 4 h from the current time (probably best not to exceed 12 h).

4. Get out a Hollerith card (computer punch card), and carefully mark the position of the backside of the cloud band of interest that is upwind of your location, pressing the card hard against your computer montior.

5. Proceed in stepwise fashion to the current time in that satellite loop and mark on the same punch card, the location of the backside of the cloud band. You will now have two “tick” marks denoting the movement of the backside of the clouds over the time period you chose.

6. Now, move the first “tick” mark to the current backside, carefully moving the card along the direction of movement of the band, and pressing it against the computer monitor.

7. The second tick mark you made will now be ahead of the band at a future position and time, based on the time increment you have used.

8. Determine from that future position whether local sunset will occur to the west of the backside while it is still OVERHEAD. If the answer is “yes”, then a tremendous, memorable sunset is likely.

Illustrative example, using an 11 h time increment to enhance difficulty:

Satellite image 1

6 PM yesterday. Cloud band backside is over central California.

Satellite image 2

6 AM this morning. Backside approaching Colo River Valley. But is it moving slow enough to be overhead at 5-6 PM? — 6 AM this morning. Backside approaching Colo River Valley. But is it moving slow enough to be overhead at 5-6 PM with the big clearing to the west?

Preparation of the Hollerith card; no “hanging chads” here–some people disperse incense now:

Results

The back edge of our cloud band is too far east for a good sunset tonight. New clouds would have to form on the backside for a good sunset. Yes, that COULD happen, and it sometimes does in certain situations, but it probably won’t today. Be thankful for a nice sunrise.

The weather ahead? The cold slam?

Well, every weather presenter is on top of that big time, and so why blather about it here? Of course, tomorrow….”tomorrow is another day” to quote a quote. And after I see how this mostly clear sky sunset prediction turns out.

Cold slam arrives but with little rain; 0. 03 inches

7:34 AM. Coming at you! A line of Cumulus congestus bases briefly passed over Catalina, but only an isolated drop fell out of them before they fell apart. But, for this moment, it was a time to be excited.

Once in the “behemoth-of-the-month” club some 10-12 days ago in the models as a major rain producer this month, and even its timing on the 28th was WELL-predicted as far back as that, yesterday’s storm and powerful trough aloft was ultimately a disappointment, producing only 3 hundredths here. That tiny amount of rain was phenomenally well predicted in the SHORT term, however, with no model thinking it would be anything more than that in Catalina a couple of days away. Still, with SO MUCH bluster aloft, it was disappointing.

For 5 PM AST, yesterday, this 500 millibar map showing the huge system that passed over us yesterday and last night. — For 5 PM AST, yesterday, this 500 millibar map showing the huge system that passed over us yesterday and last night (from the Huskies, purple and gold).

Early yesterday morning, and against the model predictions, as the Cumulus congestus piled up over the Catalinas and to the west through northwest, visions of squall lines danced in my head; surely an arcus cloud with a wall of precip would roll through Oro Valley/Cataina later in the morning or early afternoon with a substantial, if short-lived rain. Maybe we’d get 0.25 inches, not less than a tenth.

Cumulus congestus powered higher into Cumulonimbus clouds for a time to the northwest, giving momentary support to that thought of a rip roaring squall line, maybe some lightning with it.

But no.

They soon moved away and the sky began to change into more stratiform (flat) looking clouds, no congestus to be seen anymore by about 9 AM. The disappointment was huge, kind of like that girl you thought was flirting with you, but then you find out you were deluded, had completely misread the situation. Yeah, it was that painful when the congestus were gone.

Here are a few early shots, ones that created so much early excitement, so much portent, those early bulging Cumulus congestus clouds. Still kind of pretty to look at, like that girl I was thinking of, but I wasn’t good enough for her (actually, that should be plural); maybe they didn’t like all the weather talk, who knows?

8:02 AM. Nice looking Cumulus congestus to the N.

8:05 AM. Line of Cumulus congestus to the NW. Congestus everywhere! Nice Cirrus, too.

8:45 AM. Cumulus congestus turning into Cumulonimbus capillatus! Look at all that ice up there on the right. "Here comes that squall line, maybe with a nice arcus cloud", I thought. — 8:45 AM. Cumulus congestus turning into Cumulonimbus capillatus! Look at all that ice up there on the right. “Here comes that squall line, maybe with a nice arcus cloud”, I thought.

9:22 AM. Same view. Need I say anything? Light, Seattle-like rain had begun to fall. — 9:22 AM. Same view as above 47 minutes later. Need I say anything? Light, Seattle-like rain had just begun to fall, from stratiform clouds, of course. It was a sad moment. Reality was setting in; there would be no squall line, a relationship was not going to be torrid, but platonic, if at all¹.

10:59 AM. So Seattle! "Platonic" Nimbostratus, but if you really like someone, I mean rain, its OK, its something. This was the emotionless heart of our storm. Stuck on a theme here... — 10:59 AM. So Seattle! “Platonic” Nimbostratus, but if you really like someone, oops, I mean “rain”, platonic Nimbostratus is OK; its something. This was the emotionless heart of our storm yesterday. Stuck on a theme here…

2:47 PM. Hope began to increase that we might STILL get a good shower. But no rain fell on us from this promising scene. Why? No ice in those clouds overhead/upstream. — 2:47 PM. Hope began to increase that we might STILL get a good shower.
But no rain fell on us from this promising scene. Why? No ice in those clouds overhead/upstream.

5:39 PM. While the cloud tops were not cold enough overhead, it was nice to see a long period of light snow falling on the Catalinas where the cloud tops were lifted and did get to ice-forming temperatures.

5:40 PM. The sunset turned out to be a muted one in terms of color, but still interesting. The sky full of clouds, continued to give promise of rain or snow overnight as new showers developed in western Arizona. They went south of us this morning. — 5:40 PM. The sunset turned out to be a muted one in terms of color, but still interesting. Crepuscular rays are seen in the distance. The sky, full of clouds, continued to give promise of rain or snow overnight as new showers developed in western Arizona. They went south of us this morning.

What’s ahead?

This:

You got yer moderately high probability of a low center WAY down off’n Baja, kind of meandering around down there, not sure what to do, in the last night’s spag plots. That low is located just about where our great rains of last Saturday came from. Remember, like your horse, weather has a memory, knows the “trails” you’ve forgotten, and so its not too surprising to see a weather pattern replicate itself in a future forecast map. Gives it a little credibility.

Valid for 5 PM AST, February 3rd. Looks pretty good, eh?

The actual model runs, at times, have had a lot of rain as this system, after fiddling around down there off Baja like the last one, suddenly ejects northeastward across Baja into Arizona on the 4th-5th as the higher latitude westerlies give it a shove. An example, from IPS, and from one of the wettest model runs, naturally, is shown below, the one from last night’s 11 PM AST global data. Presently, the main conundrum is whether part of this meandering, sub-tropical low center will come out on the 4th-5th, before another part combines with a strong Pacific trough on the 7th, kind of a “two for one” situation.

Can’t tell now, of course, which of these scenarios will verifiy, but there WILL be a low in place off Baja soon that, as we like to say, will be “filled with rainy portent” for Arizona again.

The End.

————-
Did you know that psychologists have a lab standard called, the Passionate Love Scale?
Stage 1 is marked by “obsessive-delusional thinking” (this so funny!), and “euphoria” when things seem to be going right, as in some weather maps I’ve seen.