In case you missed it, and you probably did because you were still in bed while I was doing things for you, there was a pretty sunrise to start the day yesterday, one that would not disappoint later by being a dry one. After all, we’re here in the peak of our summer rain season.
Got 0.27 inches here, and 0.40 inches in Sutherland Heights. (The U of AZ rainfall network will have lots of data, some places getting over an inch yesterday. Pima County amounts here.)
BTW, as mind wanders, the real monsoon in India is a a little below normal this year so far. But, check out these forecast maps from IPS Meteostar and look at the west coast of India. It rains every day all day for the 15 days of the computer model run. Nothing really too unusual about that, rain every day all day on the western Ghats, 10-20 inches a week. Now THAT is a monsoon! Thought you might like a little distraction, get you out of any ruts you might be, get you thinking “outside the box” for a change.
OUR story, the long and winding one, continues below, though it can be seen in totality, in the short form in the U of A time lapse movie. This is a great U of A movie, with several “dump trucks” going by. Its amazing how much water can just suddenly be unloaded by a cloud!
Also, lenticular clouds (hover clouds) can be seen at the beginning and end of the movie downstream of the Cat Mountains, unusual for summer.
5:27 AM. Altocumulus opacus, no snow virga. What’s the top temperature? Hint: warmer than -10 C (14 F).7:27 AM. You’re finally up and you see this grayness due to Altocu/Stratocu. You start to fret over whether it can rain later in the afternoon with all these clouds keeping the temperature down.10:32 AM. Your mood begins to brighten just like the sky; the temperature is soaring while the mid-level clouds thin, and Cumulus begin arising over Ms. Lemmon, trailing overhead toward YOU. You feel special.1:32 PM. You’ve been patient, and FINALLY the clouds trailing off Lemmon are beginning to look like they might erupt into Cumulonimbus ones; bases are firming up, coalescing.1:58 PM. Its looking really good. Nice compact bottom almost overhead. You’re getting euphoric, well, hopeful.2:00 PM. Only TWO minutes later and the load is on the way down! This is the time you want to be at a picnic 2 minutes earlier and amaze people by saying, “RUN for your car! NOW!”, though they probably wouldn’t pay any attention to you unless you knew them and they knew you were cloudcentric.2:02 PM. Picnic’s over.2:03 PM. ONE minute later! The Fat Lady has sung.2:19 PM. Downspout from Cumulonimbus cloud moves on across to Oro Valley to “excite” other picnickers.2:22 PM. This beauty off to the north. Name? Cumulonimbus calvus (fibrous nature of top not yet fully evident, though a practiced eye can detected the cotton candy ice composition in the two pronged top. In front of it, a Cumulus congestus. Check that shaft! What day! Fantastic scenes all around.
The weather ahead.
U of A mod results not yet available at this hour (5:08 AM), but other model outputs suggest another three days, including today, of the kinds of scenes shown above.
Every day will be that bit different in shower coverage, of course, that governed by subtleties in the flow aloft, grade of moisture supply, dewpoints, etc.
But those days ahead will be great enough, our deserts being drenched here and there, the desert foilage exploding. Enjoy those clouds while they’re here.
Here in this part of Catalina another 0.11 inches dropped from the sky in two weak, but great thundershowers yesterday afternoon, one that will help keep the greening of the desert coming on strong. As many of you know, my photographic niche is cloud bottoms, particular dark ones, and to me, beautiful, dramatic ones when rain or hail filaments begin shredding the air below them, followed by the dump.
Below are a couple of those bottom shots from yesterday. This cloud trucked off from over Catalina toward the SW and over Oro Valley/Marana where it began to rain.
3:55 PM. The bottom of a small Cumulus congestus (it was at least 6,000 feet thick, 2 km) at the time this photo was taken, trust me.3:57 PM. A closer look at this nice dark bottom; was hoping for signs of rain strands as you probably were, too. However, they came out later, several miles away.
Later, two weak, but welcome thunderstorms rolled off the Cat Mountains from the NE, giving us 0.05 and then 0.06 inches in the second. Below, here they come!
4:13 PM. Thunderstorm one.6:37 PM. Thunderstorm two. Close strike caused a power outage here.
The dewpoints are higher, cloud bases are a bit lower, and so monster dumps in the area are VIRTUALLY guaranteed (never can tell exactly where they will be). However, conditions aloft are also conducive to larger shower areas than yesterday’s were, that is, large clusters of Cumulonimbus clouds are more likely today, meaning larger areas covered by rain, and longer durations of rain. Cool. You can get the “skinny” from the U of A model here.
5:54 AM. What are these rays called?2:14 PM. Where am I? The heaviest rain in all of Arizona fell here yesterday.5:29 PM. Why wasn’t it raining on the Catalinas from these dark clouds?6:16 PM. Where is virga and snow falling out? “If you miss one more, you’ll be out.”7:19 PM. “Who was buried in Grant’s Tomb?” A nice sunset, as almost always here, with a little snow virga hanging down from dense Altocumulus clouds
The weather ahead.
Rain in the area, the models say, every day for the next few days. Check here and with Bob (our local expert), who seems to be mad a lot, even titling his blog, “madweather.” I guess he’s not afraid, like some men, of showing his emotions. I get mad myself, but usually its when it doesn’t rain on me that day.
OK, this one’s a little long, lots of twists and turns in the weather plot before its over….but as the Arthur, I felt they were needed (that is so funny! 🙁
We’ll start with the “end” of the book; cut to the chase: the mods have another possible big day this afternoon, Check it out here.
The result of heavy rain in the Catalina Mountains late yesterday afternoon is shown below. These shots were about 2 h after the main dumps up there had occurred. Some neighbors and me was just standing around chatting, had come down to see if there was ANY flow in the CDO. Nope. But, since we were having a good time, kept on chatting. Then, the roar! (BTW, you could hear the Sutherland Wash roaring from about a mile away. Must’ve been something over there.)
7:16 PM. Sittin’ around chattin’ up neighbors and vice versa. Nothing seems to be happening in the dry CDO wash at E Wilds Road.7:28.00 PM. Oops.7:28 PM plus 3 tenths of a second
Amounts around here in and near Catalina were generally between 0.4 and 2 inches, with the lower amounts here and up at Sutherland Heights, darn. You can see the Pima County rain table (here) and the U of AZ rain network totals here (they’re usually not complete until later in the morning). These are totals for the 24 h ending at 7 AM. You can also review yesterday’s cloud action in the U of AZ time lapse movie for yesterday, rated R for violence. Max totals in NW Tucson were over THREE inches!
Below is a review of yesterday, beginning with an attempt at some true art, one I’ve entitled for a possible museum showing, “Ants and Castellanus.” Remember, Altocumulus castellanus/floccus are a good indicator of an “unstable” atmosphere at the level they formed at. The ants, flying ones, tell you that there was good soil moisture, which is actually important in keeping the boundary layer air moist by replenishing it during a warm day. It was good seeing those ants in swarms like that, they seem to be having a lot of fun, exuberated by moisture, perhaps thinking of more soil moisture ahead.
So, in this ONE photo I took for you, you have TWO indicators that are suggestive of the day ahead; it might rain again1. You could tell your friends things like this and sound quite wise concerning nature. Really something like this should be in the Farmer’s Almanac.
Frankly, while the best models we have available had quite the rain over us yesterday afternoon by 4 PM, it didn’t shape that way. It was still dry and not much going on. I am guessing that the colossal amount of rain-cooled air from the previous rain day kept the trigger point (the high temperature) for huge clouds a bit delayed, but it was only by about 1-2 hours! The rain arrived here between 5:30 and 6 PM. Pretty remarkable accuracy, never mind the bugs, when you think about it.
Often on days like this, where the atmosphere is primed for huge clouds, they go through cycles where it seems like all of sudden they putting themselves together, bases clustering for an upward explosion, but then a few minutes later, the whole sky looks in disarray, the bases having broken into small segments, tops of the clouds ragged. That happened a couple of times yesterday afternoon and so I wondered if the explosions would ever happen. Sometimes, in time lapse films you can get a sense of this as waves, gravity waves like ocean ones, in the atmosphere pass by with the clouds in films seeming to all fatten up at once, and then subside as the wave passes.
But then, it happened, all of a sudden, first an cloud on the west end of Tucson, south of us, which had been struggling, began massing, “shafting” (putting out multiple rainshafts), and putting out lighting. That was it, with the model background of massive clouds, you knew that this was it, the sky was going to go bonkers all over. With but a brief interruption, it did. I was beside myself snapping photos every few seconds, being out of control again with these stupendous scenes of transition and drama!
Here are too many:
2:49 PM. Its supposed to be raining all around, but nothing is happening. Clouds are ragged and “ill-formed.”3:09 PM. OK, lookin’ good, base massing over Cat Mountains.3:09 PM. Phooey, falling apart, stagnating.4:09 PM. Ok, at last; this is looking good, VERY good.4:23 PM. Bigger and better, now “shafting” (producing rainshafts).4:30 PM. Phooey, fizzling out.4:34 PM. When did this happen? This looks tremendous. Must be that SW wind pushing out of the dying showers to S-SW and lifting the air over the Catalinas.4:39 PM. Here come the strands, the ones that lead the dump! I might get something, its gonna be close.4:42 PM. “Thar she blows!” But I will be missed.
5:17 PM. When did this happen#2? This is an incredible sight; an outflow from some GIGANTIC complex roaring past and over Pusch Ridge toward Marana.5:21 PM. Only four minutes later but look how far its pushed out from Tucson!5:30 PM. Outflow winds and arcus clouds push into Oro Valley.5:35 PM. In the meantime, the dump on the west side of the Catalinas, shown here, is beginning to push air back toward Oro Valley leading to clashing winds to invigorate clouds not yet raining upwind of Catalina.5:39 PM. Outflow winds from the Catalinas produce this diabolical sky. About this time, and for another half hour, lightning in the clouds overhead and toward Charoleau Gap occurred every 1-2 seconds! Yeow.
__________________________________
1I would consult some computer models before taking that thought too much farther. For example, if the computer models are showing rain later in the day, and you’ve seen some castellanus and flying ants, I would definitely mention this proverb to friends, say, during a morning walk. Otherwise, keep it in your back pocket.
Rain shafted, that is. 0.50 inches in 15 minutes yesterday between 2:43 and 2:58 PM. 0.76 inches in 13 minutes in the Sutherland Heights district above Catalina, with wind gusts to 50 mph! One of the most memorable summer days ever here in Catalina. One station, Oracle RIdge in the Catalinas, 1.5 miles N of Rice Peak, reported 2.32 inches. No wonder we had a strong flow in the CDO wash yesterday afternoon! Rafting anyone?
And what a spectacular beginning to the day, filled with portent by those ultra low Stratocumulus and Cumulus cloud bases hugging Samaniego Ridge, the humid air that enveloped us reminding one of the Phillipines, or Gainesville, FL, in July. That was a real key to the kind of day that likely lay ahead, those low cloud bases telling us that our humidity was not just in a shallow layer near the ground as we could feel.
But who needs Florida in July when you can be right here in Arizona? Voluptuous Cumulus congestus clouds piled into the heavens early and often just like in FL, some with pileus veils as well, also common in FL, in route to blossoming into Cumulonimbus calvus, then capillatus clouds, tops reaching above 40,000 feet above us. The Charoleau Gap/Oracle area were hit often all morning and into the early afternoon with great rolls of thunder with one station reporting more than two inches (as noted) and several over an inch.
Because there was so much water in the air, unusually dense rainshafts poured forth from the bottoms of those clouds in just a couple of minutes, oblitering the scenes behind them. Too much precip up there for any updraft to hold off for very long, then the collapse!
Here’s one sequence, the one that led to our 15 minute drenching. The first shot shows the blockbuster that roared down through Charoleau Gap. The ferocious NE winds that preceded the rain caused the clouds to its south (where I was) to experience a growth spurt by displacing the humid air near the ground, jacking it upward. I noticed this happening by the second shot. When the winds hit, you always start looking up for “surprise” developments right over you. But after that, trying to catch a daylight lightning flash from the Charleau Gap storm, forgot to check that darkening base every 12 seconds as I would normally do. My apologies, since the third shot showing the fully collapsed, unbelievably dense rainshaft (3rd shot) was a FULL EIGHT MINUTES later. Damn.
Finally, the last two are during the height of the storm itself. Phenomenal intensity.
I suppose I took too many photos, only about 0.0004% of them can be shown here, but, let us not forget those PRO photographers that had ONE day to document, was it the Chiracaua National Park a couple of years ago? One said he had been conservative and “only” took 2,000 photos, while his friend, more promiscuous, took 8,000 that day! I only took 200 or so…
Here’s a gallery of yesterday’s scenes, including suggestions of a funnel cloud a few miles NNW of Catalina at 10:45 AM. BTW, you can reprise the whole day, as through you were a student standing on top of Atmospheric Sciences Building at the U of A here.
11:07 AM. Cumulus congestus trailing NWward from the Catalinas shows signs of glaciating, producing a shaft.11:09 AM. Shaft begins to appear on the left as top more clearly becomes fibrous, also on the left side (showing that its ice, not liquid).11:12 AM. The shaft is fully developed and the top is clearly ice; has a “cotton candy” look (now termed a Cumulonimbus calvus or maybe capillatus).10:45 AM. Brief appearance of a funnel cloud NNW of Catalina, 5-10 miles.1:14 PM. Lopsided sky. While Cumulus congestus boiled into Cumulonimbus clouds, toward the SW-W were only Cumulus “pancake-us”.1:11 PM. A new round of Cumulus congestus clouds launches off the Catalinas.
Today
We’re still in Floridian=style air with dewpoints, a measure of how much water is in the air around us, even HIGHER than yesterday with several stations from Yuma to Tucson reporting a whopping 70 F dewpoint. Doesn’t get higher than that here, I don’t think. As pointed out, the higher the humidity, the more precip can form in those Cumulonimbus clouds, but also, that greater amount of water, showing up first at cloud base when it condenses, is also like adding a little furnace at the bottom of our clouds. This is because the condensation of lots of water in the cloud offsets the cooling that occurs as the air expands on its way up. That means its easier for clouds to rise up and dump on the more humid days.
However, along with that, the numbers and clustering of these systems is also dependent on favorable patterns high in the atmosphere, like troughs. If they are not there, and its just moist, you can still get yer Cbs, but they may be short-lived, and in the worst cases, send out huge anvils that help terminate other Cumulus clouds by keeping the surface temperatures down.
So, what kind of a day will it be? Large, long-lived clusters with their inches of rain, or localized thunderblasters that burn out fast?
I don’t know, but Bob (our local premiere scientist on convection), and later Mike, his counterpart at the U of AZ, probably will, our true Arizona summer rain experts…
I haven’t got time to get the forecast right, BUT, the AZ Mod seems to suggests big showers today coming up from the S. So, Catalinians, keep your eye toward Orcacle Road into Tucson by later this morning and throughout the day and evening… Could be another memorable day for us.
Flash news: Nearly CONTINUOUS lightning from a localized spot at 3:30 AM just NW of the Tortolita Mountains. Amazing for this time of day. Continuous lightning is a rare event, especially here, mostly seen with big complexes of thunderheads. And this small thunderstorm just erupted at that time “out of the blue”, according to its radar history. Thunder was barely audible, and most of the flashes seemed aloft, toward its top.
Well, quite an exciting way to get started today. What the HECK caused that small cell to explode like that? Now, at 4:08 AM there’s just a sad remnant moving toward PHX. Probably dumped an inch or more on somebody out there at its peak, a real “flashflood” event I’d say for somebody, one that happened before the NWS could even react. Very unusual.
Rehashing yesterday, which produced only a sprinkle here just before 5 PM (trace of rain). Pretty tired of reporting traces all the time. OK, here goes:
2:43 PM. Disappointing as only Cumulus fractus, humilis, and mediocris have formed in the immediate area.4:07 PM. Now this is exciting! A ROW of building Cumulus mediocris and congestus stream off the Catalinas toward Catalina! Very promising sky.
Caption function fails again in WP; so here is the caption for #3: 4:31 PM. Row of clouds above fizzles out; none produced a shower (reached high enough for tops to form ice). But, here, a base seems organizing practically right overhead! If this one sprouts a top high enough to glaciate, there could be a real localized dump of rain! Will watch for strands to begin emanating from this base.
Caption 4: 4:47 PM. The awful sight of a broken up cloud base has occurred after the promising solid base. (Many of you know that as a professional photographer, I specialize in photographing cloud bases, its niche I have filled) A few raindrops fell out at this time, suggesting the top may have just crossed the ice-forming threshold height above; but no strands, no shaft developed. Dang.
Caption 5: In the meantime, the dark layer seen in the second photo from a giant complex of Cumulonimbus clouds far to the S has overspread the sky, killing all the remaining Cumulus buildups. This layer, completely composed of ice crystals and snowflakes, would be termed, Altostratus cumulonimbogenitus. Its an awful sight sometimes.
Caption 6: While overspreading the sky during the evening, that layer provided some nice background lighting for this row of Altocumulus castelanus.
This morning’s sky and what we can get out of it:
Well, we STILL have our “stratiform” overcast up top, above at least two other layers of clouds.
The lowest of these was topping Ms. Mt. Sara Lemmon, which are the lowest bases we’ve seen in the current surge.
Going along with that is that the lower air continues to be extremely humid, knocking out the effectiveness of evap coolers, with dewpoints in the mid and upper 60s all across southern and central AZ.
But, one aspect we have to get rid of: the overcast on top of all this. It won’t get hot enough to spawn good storms until we do. But this one is thick and composed of ice. Ice takes longer to evaporate, burn off, unlike Altocumulus droplet clouds, which by definition, are quite thin and burn off readily. These were taken at 5:20, 6:09. and 6:23 AM, respectively.
So, a slow start but one would think, major rains in the area, maybe here, are in the bag. Take a look at the huge amounts that fell to the S of us in the 24 h ending at 5 AM AST this morning, 1-4 inches over a vast area of southern Arizona (from Intellicast.com). The day before yesterday, those kinds of rains were to the N of us.
You can the excessive humidity we have here on this nice map from the U of AZ this morning. Its represented by dewpoint temperatures, the temperature at which the air must be cooled to have condensation. Our dewpoints, up from yesterday are running in the mid-60s; 66 F at TUS and 65 F here in Catalina.
Don’t expect your evap coolers to work too good today, and when they don’t work too good, expect rain. (BTW, I am really great at forecasting rain, very few forecasts I make lack something about rain in them whether it occurs or not-like yesterday.
However, our real summer rain experts, ones that did send out their special e-mails, were quite aware that things weren’t right yesterday. Check this out if you are so inclined. I love to get these since I need to be learned up on summer rain here; still a lotta ignorance going on.
Yesterday WAS shocking in a sense that the many shafts of rain expected expected in THIS area from this computer keyboard did not materialize, only that one off toward Twin Peaks-Avra toward evening, and that nice line of distant Cumulonimbus clouds to the NW (not shown today).
Its amazing that with all that humidity YESTERDAY morning, we ended up being in the Dead Zone. Take a look at this satellite image from the University of Washington at 3:45 PM AST. Look at the clean slot there, marked by the arrow. Dang! Oh, well, TODAY will be different! Expected to get “shafted” (rain shafted) royally around here, at least we should see some, and this time the U of AZ model output is on board, though only has a brief mid-afternoon cell in our area and that’s it for us (this from the 11 PM AST run here). This will be updated later this morning. Gee, with all this humidity, I would expect to see more than that, but don’t feel I am on solid ground due to yesterday’s diappointment.
Here’s the AZ radar-derived map from Intellicast.com showing that 1-2 inches fell just north of us!
How great was yesterday with the “return of the shafts”! Though we only received a trace here in Catalina, you knew, if you saw them, that some small areas were getting drenched.
How much?
The Pima County Alert Network indicates that 0.28 inches was the most that fell in their gages. But, from experience, you can bet that somewhere up to half an inch fell on somebody out there, judging by shaft density and the height of the cloud bases–bases were a bit on the high side, at around 10,000 feet above the ground (and moderately cool at 5-6 C) . Will post a radar-derived 24 h rain total map when it comes out (it has) from Intellicast.com. (Gee, there it is and that eye-ball assessment seemed pretty accurate.)
Below are some shots of those glorious, local, late breaking, rainshafts. (Was about to give up on rain in mid-afternoon since Cumulus development had stagnated. But as happens, the atmosphere changes, maybe got hot enough with our 103 F at about the time these boys took off, and, voila, up the tops of those Cu went pretty much all around us.
Note the baby rainshaft below. They’re pretty special. If you were to get in one, you would see that it was pouring rain, but only on you. You could look and couple of hundred yards in every direction and see that it was only raining on YOU. You’d feel pretty special about yourself; maybe boost that self-esteem a bit.
If you want the full review of yesterday’s excitement, go here to the U of A time lapse movie. You’ll see the sky change drastically after about 4:30 PM (if you can read the tiny time hack in the lower right hand corner.)
Today?
The amount of water over us continues to climb, and surface dewpoints reflect that, some in the 60s (61 F here in Catalina now)–meaning a lot of water vapor is around, the fuel of a good rainstorm. The local model run from the U of AZ based on 06Z (11 PM LST) data doesn’t have a lot going on hereabouts, it seems to expect today to be a lot like yesterday–but that would be good.
However, with cloud bases likely to be lower and warmer, that will mean bigger dumps in those rainshafts as more water funnels up into those rising afternoon Cumulonimbus turrets. Hoping for a special e-mail later this morning from the U of A summer rain specialists, always exciting since they only issue them when they think something “good” is going to happen. Didn’t get one yesterday, deemed to tame a day maybe. BTW, “good” is defined by meteorologists as heavy rain, blowing dust from outflow winds, flash floods, lightning, maybe some hail thrown in, etc.
4:45 PM.4:51 PM5:19 PM. Baby rainshaft, so cute! Wish I could have gone over there and stood under it.5:46 PM. Shower line moves southwestward across Marana.7:28 PM. Still going, but in the distance. Nice lightning show out that way until well after midnight.
Another dry day yesterday, a tough one to take, since it appeared that rain hereabouts was a virtual certainty. All the model runs I saw from the U of AZ had good rains at times on the Catalinas yesterday afternoon and into the evening, as they do again for today. Here’s one U of A model output for 2 PM yesterday (WRF Surface (Flash Animation) as an example.
So, when the dense Altocumulus clouds with their spotty sprinkles and light showers finally thinned and the sun burst forth in the afternoon, up went the Cumulonimbus clouds within the hour off in the distance from Catalina to the NE and SE. It was going to be a great afternoon and evening I thought. Tucson International AP reported lightning, thunder, off and on yesterday until after midnight, and even a few drops! Go here if you want to see all of last night’s action in the satellite and radar imagery from IPS Meteostar.
But none here. Check the radar-derived precip from Intellicast.com. You can see light rain was all around Catalina, dang.
Rainfall for the 24 h period ending at 5 AM AST today.
Cumulus started to form above Ms. Lemmon, and it seemed one of those was bound to explode upward as well. While a brief sprinkle/virga fell out of one of those clouds at one point when it reached the “Cumulonimbus mediocris” stage, one I made up, no full eruption occurred. It was incredible that didn’t happen, and so discouraging when you claim to be a Cloud-Maven, one who is supposed to know stuff.
The full discouraging day can be seen here, if you can stand to review it. Still, these films are pretty interesting no matter what happens when clouds are present.
By evening all Catalina threats were seemingly gone, with no promising, massive clouds approaching from the northeast as they often do here at that time of day in the summer, rolling down out of the White Mountains, blackening the sky behind Charoleau Gap. I missed a great sunset, too.
About today, in view of my poor track record, you might want to check out what Bob has to say. He is one of the premiere scientists in convection, and lives right here in Tucson! I think he has better graphics, too. Also, here is the forecast from our NWS for Catalina, better get that in there for more balance, and maybe more accuracy! They think the chance of measurable rain today in Catlina is but 10%.
However, being indefatigable, imperturbable, immutable, stubborn, I will press on with this forecast space: _____________________ (write in your own forecast; it will likely be better than mine). PS: I think it will rain today.
BTW, even the coarse (as in grid spacing) Nvironment Canada model has a wet Arizona week ahead. So, if not today, tomorrow!
Below, a photo reprise of yesterday.
6:59 AM. That promising morning sky. Light showers can be seen beyond the Tortolita Mountains.1:25 PM. As the Altocumulus clouds faded, large Cumulonimbus anvils began appearing in the distance. This was going to be a great day.1:41 PM. Mountainous Cumulonimbus tops rise up over the White Mountains to the NE!1:26 PM. Cumulus are beginning to pile up over Ms. Lemmon! Surely there will be a giant Cb in an hour or two!Later that day…. a painful sight.
(A note: I am not getting WYSIWYG in what I am writing and what is posted in WP. This is SO FRUSTRATING! True I am a bit of an amateur at WP, but those spaghetti plots that start the blog are SUPPOSED TO BE AT THE END OF IT as I see them in the draft, not absorbed in the “gallery” as well, dammitall!) Computers and sofware are going to kill me, I am sure. Where are my pills?!
Another promising start to a summer day today in Cat Land, as was yesterday since we have another cloud filled morning, some clouds having weak rainshafts indicating glaciation in the turrets sprouting from today’s layer. And, there’s been a slight uptick in moisture over us, which raises the chances for measurable rain in Catalina today. We also have support for this contention in the great U of A local model forecasts here, based on last night’s 11 PM AST run! Yay!
Below, the photographic diary for yesterday starts begins with the Altocumulus opacus layer, with more than one layer up there. Then, after the usual thinning-dissolution of that layer in the morning, the welcome sight of baby Cumulus beginning to appear over Mt. Lemmon by noon. Those Cu steadily inflated reaching the “glaciation” level by 1:31 PM, a welcome sight after the “dud” Cumulus clouds of the prior two days.
After our first thundery spell, several new thunderstorms developed to the NW and E-SE over the Catalinas late in the afternoon, but again, produced only another trace in a 20 minute or so of “very-light-rain-its-not drizzle” (one of the recurring themes here).
Since I can’t add more captions after the icy sprout, a WP problem, the times of the last few photos are, 1:53 PM, 2:08 PM, and finally, another great sunset sequence, some distant Cumulonimbus to the NW and another blazing sunset underlighting some virga from the remains of our last thunderstorm, these taken at 7:30 PM.
6:14 AM.
12:39 PM.
1:18 PM.
1:31 PM. That icy sprout on the top meant a rainshaft was already fully developed inside that cloud. There’s always some of it falling out.
The Weather Ahead, way ahead:
We’re always on pins and needles this time of year, hoping for the best summer rains we can get, at least I am. The transformation of the desert into green again during the summer, after the spring greening, is one of THE most rewarding aspects about living here in the summer, flying ant swarms aside.
Below are the “spaghetti” plots from NOAA that give us some clue about the reliability of the longer term model forecasts. These are for the afternoon of July 19th, some ten days from now, and the afternoon of July 23rd. Both plots below strongly indicate that the circulation pattern is ripe for good summer rains here between now and the 24th. Doesn’t mean that every day will have rain, but it does mean recurring summer rains are likely with no long breaks. That black region over the SW indicates a high probability (not certainty!) that our big fat SW summer anticyclone will be well positioned for good summer rains here. In contrast, if that black area was OVER southern Arizona, or to the south, it would be a horribly, hot dry spell here that the models were foretelling.
