About real clouds, weather, cloud seeding and science autobio life stories by WMO consolation prize-winning meteorologist, Art Rangno
Pinching the old Consumer Reports segment, “Quotes without Comment” page from decades ago, for a title. But after that title, I changed my mind and will write a coupla captions.
Wish it could tell you there was some rain ahead, maybe tomorrow, but…I’d be lying again as I do from time to time. Nothing in sight.
The End.
BTT you read this, rain oughta be falling or near by as the remnants of ‘Manda hurricane dribble into Arizona today. Looks like there’s just enough rain upstream right now (4 AM) to produce, hold your breath, a MEASURABLE amount here in Catalina! Likely will be just a few hundredths, though, as much as two tenths is about the top potential from this. At this point, anything measurable is a fabulous rain!
Mods have been oscillating on whether it would rain here for many days, but last night’s run ended pleasantly with a “correct” forecast of measurable rain. See green pixelation over Catalina below:
(Also, another great cloud movie from the U of AZ here....)
First, pretty nice sunset yesterday evening, which is redundant because sunset always occurs in the evening.
OK, enough great information on clouds and things we can see from Catalina/Sutherland Heights, now for the rain ahead….
Rainshowers, some thunderstorms wrap around this low that drifts from over San Diego to over Puerto Peñasco, Mexico (aka, Rocky Point) by Saturday. Here the Canadian version of what the weather configurations will be this coming Saturday morning:
As you can see, a little bit of tropical air gets whirled into this low from someplace down Mexico way, and, viola, showers and a couple of thunderstorms erupt. This could happen anytime between Thursday night and Sunday morning, maybe even a couple of days of scattered showers.
Rain here in Catalina? I think so. Likely range, not a lot, but from a low end of just 0.05 inches, to as much as a quarter of an inch by Sunday morning (10% chance of less; only 10% chance of more, as a first take on this). Gorgeous, dramatic skies are guaranteed, and likely some strong winds here and there emanating those high-based thunderstorms we can get this time of year.
BTW, not reporting on the US model forecast since it shows the low next weekend passing a little farther to the north, i. e., doesn’t take as favorable a track for rain here as the Enviro Can model shown above.
After the little “lowboy” goes by next weekend (producing some great, badly needed rains in NM and TX), the Arizona oven is turned on. Look for a string of 100+ days beginning in about a week.
Coming to weather theaters next fall and winter, “The Ninja (?) Nino.” Looks warmer and warmer down there in those key “Classic” and “The New Nino” equatorial ocean zones off South America to Hawaii. CPC’s (Climate Prediction Center) is getting pretty worked up about it, too. Check it out below and here:
Of course, as we know here, the effect on the summer rainfall season is not really well documented. But things can wetten up in late summer and fall due to tropical storms that drift farther north toward us, remaining a bit stronger because the ocean temperatures that maintain them are a bit warmer. This enhances the chance of a wet spell or two then. Mainly, with a good Nino, the chances of a wet winter go up a lot, particular the mid and later parts.
In the meantime, let us dream about September and October 1983, as the Great El Nino of 1982-83 was fading, but still was associated with colossal rains in Arizona those two months. In case you forgot, this recap about those days and TS Octave. During that water year of that Great Nino, October 1982 through the first couple of days of October 1983, just a year and a couple of days, Catalina recorded a Seattle-like 32 inches of rain!
The End
Its not a breakfast at a restaurant chain, but a sharp cold front passage later this morning, say between 10 AM and Noon. Should be pretty interesting. Temperature will drop about 10 F in an hour. Expecting/hoping, too, for a little measurable rain with this “FROPA” (frontal passage in weatherspeak). The brisk winds, as they always do, have activated a lot of the nighttime wind detector lights in the neighborhood.
The usual post-frontal clearing in the afternoon and a pretty cool day, maybe 20 F cooler than yesterday afternoon which got to 88 F here in the Heights, the Sutherland ones, that is. Of course, our media weather stars are all over this weather situation, so nothing much to be added here.
Still have plenty of higher ice clouds overhead right now at daybreak, but look for an invasion of Cumulus and Stratocumulus within the couple of hours after daybreak. They should appear first on the Lemmon, topping it, then fill in after that as the cold slam gets closer.
The full complement of expected clouds was not really observed yesterday. Missing in action for the most part locally were Altocumulus lenticulars downind of Ms. Lemmon. Cirrocumulus clouds were also pretty much a no show. You can see some of those high lenticular formations that did occur WAY downwind of Ms. Lemmon and the Catalinas if you view the U of AZ Weather Department time lapse movie for yesterday between 11 AM and 1 PM, then another pile of Ac len just at sunset (7:15 PM) in their movie.
Below, what we did see, various varieties of Cirrus, and eventually those thickening to Altostratus ice clouds. And a hole was out there that allowed a brief colorized sunset rather than a gray one.
Still looking like a couple of pokes of cool air in the last ten days of April, no rain indicated with them, just wind.
Some sprinkles maybe on Friday or Saturday from mid-level clouds like Altostratus or large clumps of Altocumulus with virga, some of the latter likely large enough to transition in name from Altocumulus (castellanus) to Cumulonimbus clouds. As with the last sprinkle a few days ago, any rain will be from clouds whose bottoms are well above Ms. Mt. Lemmon.
A great sunrise/sunset or two is almost guaranteed on Friday and or Saturday. This cloud action due to a weak wave/trough in the subtropics that creeps toward Arizona in the next few days. You can see it now in the sat imagery from the Washington Huskies Weather Department here. Its that little thing spinning around in this loop east of Hawaii with a big plume of high and middle clouds streaming NE from the Equator toward the West Coast to the east of the upper low. Expecting nothing more than passing Cirrus before Friday.
The End.
Some sprinkles/radar echoes passed overhead early this morning. Will check, as you will, for drop images in dust on solid outdoor surfaces to possibly report a trace due to drops that reached the ground. Going out now with flashlight, to heck with that coyote over there. Result: looks like there were a few isolated, larger drops that fell last night. Below, confirmation of echoes overhead from WSI Intellicast’s 24 h radar-derived rain for AZ:
Nice sunset with late sudden bloom after looking like there might not be any color at all.
Expect another middle to high cloud cloudy day with nice breezes. Weak jet stream to south (see map below) as upper level trough passes today, the main criteria for cool season rain in AZ (some 90-95% of all measurable rain in AZ falls only when the jet stream in the middle troposphere (about 18-20 kft above sea level) is south of us. However, while that criteria is met today, just not enough moisture has leaked in over the Baja and southern California mountains for clouds low enough to produce rain. So while its a virtually necessary condition, its not always sufficient.
The End.
Rained, too, between 3:42 PM and 3:47 PM, actually 273 seconds, if you had your stopwatch out. It was great. I ran around trying to get wet, but couldn’t do it.
Still enough moisture for very shallow Cu fractus, Cu humilis, hold the ice (tops too warm). Skies will also be overrun with Cirrus, maybe verging on Altostratus, as part of low and trough barging into northern California today.Will get nice and breezy this afternoon, as the low zips on into the Great Basin and makes its presence known here. Instantaneous puffs might reach 40 mph this afternoon. No rain possible with this system, darn.
However, deeper Sc and Cu with ice in them should be visible up toward the NW-NE horizon today since a little rain and snow is expected on the M-Rim today, this from the U of AZ super mod’s 06 Z (11 PM AST) run, here.
The End.
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1Here’s the interesting story behind getting THREE public service messages in a single caption/photo: I wanted to both better serve my public by getting some public service messages out there while at the SAME time, documenting some weather singularity, in this case, one of the rare rain events in the Catalina winter of 2013-14. Suddenly, in the midst of the rain I was dancing in, I noticed some shiny drops on the lid of the recycle bin, and things just “came together” you might say for a remarkable photo.
Cloud tops in those deeper Cu reached -30 C (-22 F) yesterday, plenty cold enough for lots of ice, with a few scattered very light showers reaching the ground, even a few drops here in Sutherland Heights a little before 5 PM, qualifying for a day with a trace of rain. Imagine! Rain! What izzat?
Here is that day below (if you want the short version, go to the U of AZ time lapse film department, online here).
Day Summary: Sunny with Altocumulus castellanus/floccus virgae in the early morning, then in the late morning, Cumulus humilis and mediocris, the latter with virga; Cu grew into shallow, but very cold Cumulonimbus capillatus (lots of “hair”-ice), with virga and RWU (rain showers of unknown intensity) in a couple of spots. Sunny again in mid-afternoon, but Cumulus re-developed in mid-late afternoon with more virga and some Cu reaching the shallow Cb stage with sprinkles here and there.
That’s it, in kind of a jumbled form. Hope you logged all these clouds and changes yesterday.
Don’t see any weather ahead that I like, and so not talkin’ about that today.
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1One of the many pioneering innovations here at “cloud-maven” is the novella-sized figure caption.
..will be playing your favorite western tunes in the inimitable style of Johnny Cash at the Whistling Cactus Bar and Hitching Post this Friday and Saturday… :} (Hahahaha; “inimitable style of Johnny Cash”; that means Cash’s style can’t be imitated!)1
6:37 AM: I see now that there’s a lot more dust than last evening! Wow. Dusty Sunrise!
Cloud action today, likely some small Cu and Ac later today as a weak upper level trough approaches and passes over us. Should be enough clouds around to pose a sprinkle threat. Imagine.
Should be an especially interesting day for cloud watchers since the dust aerosol should get into the small Cu. Sometimes that can lead to much larger cloud droplets in them because the dust particles are so much larger than the usual aerosol stuff that gets into our clouds.
What does that mean?
Will help those lower Cumulus clouds to form raindrops, since the larger the cloud droplet, the higher the temperatures at which ice forms. Sometimes, even drizzle drops, formed from just droplet collisions can result in Cu mediocris clouds with large dust particles in them (no ice involved). Would sure like to have an instrumented aircraft in the clouds of today!
Normally, ice would be expected to form at temperatures below about -10 to -12 C here in AZ. Today, it might be higher with virga falling from shallower clouds than usual.
Found some rain for ya… March 21st.
See those green areas in SE AZ? Been quiet on rain lately. Don’t like to talk about rain when there’s none indicated for two weeks at a time. The rain shown for us on the map above has been coming and going around this date in the model runs, mostly going, actually, but scored one here based on yesterday’s 5 PM AST global data and that has allowed me to take the rain muzzle off.
So….in sum, we can look forward to another chance of rain in March, one just ahead, and, of course, more of “Dusty Sunset” in the meantime leading up to this chance.
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1Saw a vinyl record album with those EXACT words on it in the Durango Market on Main Street, Durango, back in the ’70s when I lived there. Pretty funny, because you KNEW that imitating Johnny Cash was exactly what that singer was going to do!
Here it is:
Was going to close with this NWS forecast for Catalina (might be updated by the time you link to it), but then saw just now that Saturday, the day a cold, dry trough is over us, it’s predicted to be 76 F here in Catalina, too warm. I would prepare for upper 60s.
Canadian model has even had rain near us at times as this trough goes by on Saturday, but only here in the 11th hour (from yesterday’s 5 PM AST run) has the US model indicated that the core of the trough and rain near us on Saturday, as the Canadian one had for a few days before that. Hmmm…
The fact that any trough is ending up stronger than it was predicted, as the one on Saturday, is a good sign of being close to the bottom (farthest S lattitude) of the “trough bowl”, that location where troughs like to come and visit. So, maybe this is a precursor for us, this unexpected little cool snap on Saturday. Maybe climatology is beginning to work its wonders at last in the West.
Powerful storms begin affecting the interior of the West and Great Basin in 10 days, and that pretty much marks the time when the winds here start to pick up to gusty at times as strong low centers develop to the north of us, and the major jet stream subsides to the south toward us.
It will be the end of the warm winter era for us, too. While cold settles in the West, it will mean very toasty weather back East from time to time, something those folks will greatly enjoy.
———————–Climate issue commentary; skip if you’re happy with the climate as it is now—————————-
As you likely know, much of the upper Midwest had one of its coldest winters ever, and just a few days ago Baltimore (locally, “Ballimore”, as in “Ballimore Orioles”) had its lowest measured temperature EVER in March, 4 F!
“RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
0930 AM EST TUE MAR 04 2014
…DAILY AND MONTHLY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS SET AT BALTIMORE
MD…
A DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 4 DEGREES WAS SET AT BALTIMORE MD TODAY…BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 5 SET BACK IN 1873.
THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 4 DEGREES FROM TODAY WAS ALSO THE
LOWEST MINUMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDED ON ANY DAY IN MARCH FOR
BALTIMORE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH WAS 5 DEGREES ON 4 MARCH 1873.”
(Thanks to Mark Albright for this official statement; emphasis by author)
If you’ve followed some media reports, the exceptional cold of this winter has been attributed to global warming, a hypothesis that has been questioned by climo Big Whigs. However, if it is right (which even lowly C-M doubts), parts of the upper Midwest may become uninhabitable due to cold in a warming world, quite a weather “oxymoron.”
Also, if you’ve been hearing about weather extremes and global warming (AKA, “climate change”) you really should read this by a scientist I admire, Roger Pielke, Jr., at Colorado State Univsersity, his rebuttal to a Whitehouse science adviser’s characterization of his testimony before Congress about weather extremes (they’re not increasing).
What seems to be happening in climate science is the opposite of what our ideals are. Our conglomerate of climate models did not see the present “puzzling” halt to global warming over the past 15 years or so as CO2 concentrations have continued to rise. However, instead of being chastened/humbled by this failure, some climate scientists seem emboldened and only are shouting louder about the danger ahead. Presently we are struggling with a number of hypotheses about why the hiatus has occurred (e.g., drying of the stratosphere which allows more heat to escape the earth, more aerosols in the stratosphere in which incoming sunlight is dimmed some as it was due to the Pinatubo eruption in 1991, ocean take up of extra heat, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current slowing down, causing northern hemisphere continents to cool off.)
UPdating at 8:28 AM: This from the “current”issue of Science (Feb 28th) about the Global Warming Hiatus (GWH): It might be due to the cold waters of the eastern Pacific, now reigning year after year almost for the whole time of the “hiatus.” (BTW, you’ve heard of it, haven’t you, that hiatus in rising global temperatures? If not, write to your local media sources about this. Its pretty important.) Science mag is $10 if you want to buy it off the newstand.
What ever the cause of the puzzling hiatus in warming, it was not accounted for in our best models right from the get go, and so, naturally there SHOULD be caution on everyone’s part until we know what happened and can get it right in those many climate models..dammitall! Unless we know what done it, how else can we have confidence that they are going to be very accurate 100 years out????
———————————————end of climate issue/rant module————————–
Here are a couple of nice sunset scenes from March 4th, that same day it was SO COLD in Ballimore, these to help you cool off personally after I got you pretty worked up with climate issues. Hope I didn’t spoil your day, and try not to be mad at work thinking about it.
