After the rain, the oven

First, pretty nice sunset yesterday evening, which is redundant because sunset always occurs in the evening.

7:18 PM.  Altostratus with slight amounts of virga, underlit by the evening sunset. Haha, "evening sunset."
7:18 PM. Altostratus with slight amounts of virga, underlit in the evening sunset. Haha, “evening sunset.”

 

7:19 AM.  Only the virga is highlighted over here.  Liked the way was splayed over a house in the foreground.
7:19 AM. Liked the way was splayed over a house in the foreground. Sort of perty.

 

7:42 AM.  Thicker Cirrus clouds are Cirrus spissatus, or "Cis spis" for short, though not in polite company.  Should be the State Cloud of Arizona, we see so much of it, white or gray patches of ice cloud.  Kind of fed up with just "Cirrus-ee" skies these days.
7:42 AM. The thicker Cirrus clouds are Cirrus spissatus, or “Cis spis” for short, though not in polite company. Should be the State Cloud of Arizona, we see so much of it, those white or gray patches of ice cloud. Kind of fed up with just “Cirrus-ee” skies these days.

 

7:43 AM.  Looking north-northwest from Catalina toward Mt. Humphries, a delicate blend of Cirrus uncinus fibers (upper half of photo) with thicker Cirrus spissatus in the distance (thicker appearance not due to perspective).
7:43 AM. Looking north-northwest from Catalina toward Mt. Humphries, a delicate blend of Cirrus uncinus fibers (upper half of photo) with thicker Cirrus spissatus in the distance (thicker appearance not due to perspective).

OK, enough great information on clouds and things we can see from Catalina/Sutherland Heights, now for the rain ahead….

Rainshowers, some thunderstorms wrap around this low that drifts from over San Diego to over Puerto Peñasco, Mexico (aka, Rocky Point) by Saturday.  Here the Canadian version of what the weather configurations will be this coming Saturday morning:

Valid at 5 AM AST, Saturday
Valid at 5 AM AST, Saturday

 

As you can see, a little bit of tropical air gets whirled into this low from someplace down Mexico way, and, viola, showers and a couple of thunderstorms erupt.  This could happen anytime between Thursday night and Sunday morning, maybe even a couple of days of scattered showers.

Rain here in Catalina?  I think so.  Likely range, not a lot, but from a low end of just 0.05 inches, to as much as a quarter of an inch by Sunday morning (10% chance of less; only 10% chance of more, as a first take on this).  Gorgeous, dramatic skies are guaranteed, and likely some strong winds here and there emanating those high-based thunderstorms we can get this time of year.

BTW, not reporting on the US model forecast since it shows the low next weekend passing a little farther to the north, i. e., doesn’t take as favorable a track for rain here as the Enviro Can model shown above.

The weather way ahead

After the little “lowboy” goes by next weekend (producing some great, badly needed rains in NM and TX), the Arizona oven is turned on.  Look for a string of 100+ days beginning in about a week.

Coming to weather theaters next fall and winter, “The Ninja (?) Nino.”  Looks warmer and warmer down there in those key “Classic” and “The New Nino” equatorial ocean zones off South America to Hawaii.  CPC’s (Climate Prediction Center) is getting pretty worked up about it, too.   Check it out below and here:

Sea surface temperature anomalies from NOAA, valid for May 19, 2014. OK, here we go!
Sea surface temperature anomalies from NOAA, valid for May 19, 2014. OK, here we go!CPC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of course, as we know here, the effect on the summer rainfall season is not really well documented.  But things can wetten up in late summer and fall due to tropical storms that drift farther north toward us, remaining a bit stronger because the ocean temperatures that maintain them are a bit warmer.  This enhances the chance of a wet spell or two then.  Mainly, with a good Nino,  the chances of a wet winter go up a lot, particular the mid and later parts.

In the meantime, let us dream about September and October 1983, as the Great El Nino of 1982-83 was fading, but still was associated with colossal rains in Arizona those two months.  In case you forgot, this recap about those days and TS Octave.  During that water year of that Great Nino, October 1982 through the first couple of days of October 1983, just a year and a couple of days, Catalina recorded a Seattle-like 32 inches of rain!

The End