Sunsets – Page 8 – Cloud-maven

Great expectations of mice and men…

…weren’t quite realized¹ in the rain totals that our storm produced; the very exciting prediction of several inches of water content foretold for Ms. Lemmon didn’t happen (see ALERT gauge listing below, saved for pretty much the maximum 24 h period of our storm.)

Still, rains were substantial, the occasional morning lightning was great, and in a few places in PC (Pima County) the rain total did exceed 2 inches, with amounts of an inch and a half in the Cat Mountains. Good, better, but not as “great” as in expectations, except maybe at Park Tank, Reddington area, where the ALERT gauge says, 3.78 inches. Also, if you didn’t catch it, a stupendous sunrise and sunset; see pics WAY below.

Here in Sutherland Heights, 0.60 inches fell, by far most of that during the middle of last night when strong storms bounded in and abounded all over eastern AZ with a final rainband. Here’s what that 3rd and final rain “act” looked like on radar and in the satellite imagery last night (very exciting weather shape, BTW; “the curl”):

Radar and sat imagery from IPS MeteoStar for 1:15 AM. The heaviest rain fell just to the north of us. This “curl” configuration indicates that a potent part of the trough was passing by, causing clouds to explode upward from the tip of the “tail” near Rocky Point on their way to the NE from there. Got even bigger as they passed by us and headed toward Miami-Globe area. You can also see the three bands of rain that affected us, more or less still intact.

              Precipitation Report for the following time periods ending at: 03:59:00 03/02/14 (also learn where stuff is)
                       (data updated every 15 minutes)
              Data is preliminary and unedited.
              —- indicates missing data

    Gauge    15         1           3          6            24         Name                        Location
    ID#      minutes    hour        hours      hours        hours
    —-     —-       —-        —-       —-         —-       —————–            ———————
Catalina Area
    1010     0.00       0.04       0.16        0.28         0.43      Golder Ranch                 Horseshoe Bend Road in Saddlebrooke
    1020     0.00       0.00       0.24        0.43         0.67      Oracle Ranger Stati          approximately 0.5 mile southwest of Oracle
    1040     0.00       0.00       0.16        0.31         0.51      Dodge Tank                   Edwin Road 1.3 miles east of Lago Del Oro Parkway
    1050     0.00       0.00       0.12        0.28         0.47      Cherry Spring                approximately 1.5 miles west of Charouleau Gap
    1060     0.00       0.00       0.35        0.55         0.83      Pig Spring                   approximately 1.1 miles northeast of Charouleau Gap
    1070     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.20      Cargodera Canyon             northeast corner of Catalina State Park
    1080     0.00       0.00       0.12        0.24         0.35      CDO @ Rancho Solano          Cañada Del Oro Wash northeast of Saddlebrooke
    1100     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.20         0.31      CDO @ Golder Rd              Cañada Del Oro Wash at Golder Ranch Road

Santa Catalina Mountains
    1030     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.04         0.43      Oracle Ridge                 Oracle Ridge, approximately 1.5 miles north of Rice Peak
    1090     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.39      Mt. Lemmon                   Mount Lemmon
    1110     0.00       0.00       0.39        0.71         1.02      CDO @ Coronado Camp          Cañada Del Oro Wash 0.3 miles south of Coronado Camp
    1130     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         0.04      Samaniego Peak               Samaniego Peak on Samaniego Ridge
    1140     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.08         1.46      Dan Saddle                   Dan Saddle on Oracle Ridge
    2150     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.00         1.30      White Tail                   Catalina Highway 0.8 miles west of Palisade Ranger Station
    2280     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.20         1.34      Green Mountain               Green Mountain
    2290     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.12         1.54      Marshall Gulch               Sabino Creek 0.6 miles south southeast of Marshall Gulch

Santa Catalina Foothills
    2090     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.12         0.75      TV @ Guest Ranch             Tanque Verde Wash at Tanque Verde Guest Ranch
    2100     0.00       0.00       0.00        0.16         0.43      DEQ Swan                     Swan Road at Calle del Pantera
    2160     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.08         0.31      Sabino @ USFS Dam            Sabino Creek at USFS Dam
    2170     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.12         0.59      Ventana @ Sunrise            Ventana Canyon Wash at Sunrise Road
    2190     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.20         0.75      Al-Marah                     near El Marah on Bear Canyon Road
    2200     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.12         0.71      AC Wash @ TV Bridge          Agua Caliente Wash at Tanque Verde Road
    2210     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.12         0.79      Catalina Boosters            Houghton Road 0.1 miles south of Catalina Highway
    2220     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.20         0.83      Agua Caliente Park           Agua Caliente Park
    2230     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.16         0.79      El Camino Rinconado          El Camino Rinconado 0.5 miles north of Reddington Road
    2240     0.00       0.00       0.12        0.16         0.91      Molino Canyon                Mt Lemmon Highway near Mile Post 3
    2390     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.16         0.39      Finger Rock @ Skyli          Finger Rock Wash at Sunrise Road

Redington Pass Area
    2020     0.00       0.08       0.55        0.67         3.78      Park Tank                    Redington Pass, 0.8 miles south of Park Tank
    2030     0.00       0.04       0.28        0.39         2.09      Italian Trap                 Redington Pass, 0.7 miles east southeast of Italian Trap Tank
    2040     0.00       0.00       0.12        0.16         1.14      White Tank                   Redington Road near White Tank
    2050     0.00       0.00       0.12        0.16         1.14      Bellota Ranch Road           Bellota Ranch Road near Redington Road
    2070     0.00       0.00       0.12        0.24         0.87      TV @ Chiva Tank              Tanque Verde Wash 0.5 miles south of Chiva Tank
    2080     0.00       0.04       0.12        0.16         0.87      Alamo Tank                   Redington Road near Alamo Well

Rincon Mountains
4100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 1.06 Manning Camp Manning Camp in the Rincon Mountains
4110 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.08 0.47 Rincon Creek Rincon Creek at X-9 Ranch

Greater Tucson
    2110     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.16         0.71      TV @ TV Road                 Tanque Verde Wash at Tanque Verde Road
    2120     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.20         0.59      TV @ Sabino Cyn Rd           Tanque Verde Wash at Sabino Canyon Road
    2300     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.16         0.63      Well D-37                    Rosewood Street west of Harrison Road
    2310     0.00       0.04       0.08        0.16         0.67      Well E-23                    Rancho El Mirador north of Broadway Boulevard
    2320     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.08         0.47      Beverly Well C-51            Beverly Avenue at Hawthorne Street
    2330     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.08         0.51      Kolb Boosters                Kolb Road at Golf Links
    2350     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.12         0.39      Rillito @ Dodge              Rillito Creek at Dodge Boulevard
    2360     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.20         0.43      Rillito @ La Cholla          Rillito Creek at La Cholla Boulevard
    2370     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.28         0.63      Alamo @ Glenn                Alamo Wash at Glenn Street
    2380     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.16         0.35      DEQ Ruthraff                 Ruthrauff Road at La Cholla Boulevard
    4160     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.12         0.55      E-8                          Irvington Road near Pantano Road
    4180     0.00       0.00       0.12        0.12         0.51      Pantano @ Houghton           Pantano Wash at Houghton Road
    6040     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.04         0.43      Santa Cruz@Valencia          Santa Cruz River at Valencia Road
    6180     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.08         0.39      ArroyoChico@Cherry           Arroyo Chico at Cherry Street
    6190     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.12         0.59      Arroyo Chico@Randol          Arroyo Chico at Randolph Way
    6230     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.12         0.55      Ajo Detention Basin          Tucson Diversion Channel at Ajo Detention Basin
    6240     0.00       0.00       0.12        0.12         0.63      DEQ Cntry Clb                Country Club Road near Columbia Street
    6250     0.04       0.04       0.16        0.20         0.75      Craycroft@Golf Link          Craycroft Road at Golf Links Road
    6260     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.08         0.55      Tucson Electric Pow          Irvington Road at Belvedere Avenue
    6270     0.00       0.00       0.12        0.16         0.59      Pima Air Museum              Valencia Road at Pima Air Museum

Southern Tucson Area
    6200     0.00       0.04       0.20        0.20         0.67      Summit Elementary            Summit Street at Epperson Lane
    6210     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.12         0.59      Franco @ Swan                Franco Wash at Swan Road
    6220     0.00       0.00       0.20        0.20         0.83      PC Fairgrounds               Houghton Road at Dawn Road
    6280     0.00       0.00       0.12        0.16         0.63      Wilmot                       Wilmot Road 2 miles south of Old Vail Connection Road
    6290     0.00       0.04       0.55        0.55         1.42      Corona                       Sahuarita Road at Sewage Treatment Plant

Altar/Avra Valley Area Area
    6370     0.00       0.04       0.16        0.31         1.77      Arivaca                      Las Guijas Mountains near Arivaca
    6380     0.00       0.00       0.12        0.31         1.10      Altar Wash @ Hwy 28          Altar Wash at Highway 286
    6410     0.00       0.00       0.12        0.24         0.59      Diamond Bell                 Diamond Bell near Stagecoach Road at Killarney Avenue
    6420     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.20         0.31      Brawley@Three Point          Brawley Wash at Highway 86
    6430     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.08         0.28      Vahala Park                  Wade Road at Los Reales
    6440     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.20         0.24      Brawley@Milewide             Brawley Wash at Milewide Road
    6450     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.16         0.43      Hilltop Rd                   Hilltop Road at Riveria Road
    6460     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.28         0.35      Picture Rocks CC             Picture Rocks Community Center
    6470     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.16         0.35      Michigan @ Calgary           Michigan Street at Calgary Avenue

Marana/Oro Valley Area
    1200     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.20         0.28      CDO @ Ina Road               Cañada Del Oro Wash at Ina Road
    1230     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.24         0.31      Oro Valley PW                Calle Concordia at Calle El Milagro
    1240     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.28         0.35      Moore Rd                     Moore Road at La Cholla
    1250     0.00       0.00       0.04        0.24         0.35      Pima Wash @ Ina              Pima Wash at Ina Road
    1260     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.28         0.43      Big Wash                     Big Wash at Rancho Vistoso Boulevard
    1270     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.20         0.31      CDO @ Big Wash               Cañada Del Oro Wash near Oracle Road
    6020     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.24         0.35      Santa Cruz @ Ina             Santa Cruz River at Ina Road
    6110     0.04       0.04       0.08        0.24         0.24      Avra Valley Airpark          Santa Cruz River 0.5 miles east of Sanders Road

Vail Area
    4220     0.00       0.00       0.16        0.16         0.79      Rancho Del Lago              approximately 1.8 miles northwest of Vail
    4250     0.00       0.04       0.39        0.43         0.94      Pantano @ Vail               Pantano Wash 1.5 miles southeast of Colossal Cave Road
    4270     0.04       0.04       0.24        0.24         1.06      Salcido Place                6 miles north-northwest of Mescal
    4280     Site temporarily removed due to road construction        Cienega Crk @ I-10           Cienega Creek at Interstate 10
    4290     0.04       0.04       0.20        0.20         0.91      Mescal                       2 miles northwest of Mescal
    4310     0.00       0.00       0.55        0.55         1.22      Davidson Canyon              Davidson Canyon Wash 0.25 miles south of Interstate 10
    4320     0.00       0.04       0.12        0.12         0.43      Empire Peak                  Empire Peak
    4410     0.00       0.04       0.04        0.04         0.75      Haystack Mtn.                Haystack Mountain

Green Valley Area
    6050     0.00       0.00       0.47        0.67         1.61      Santa Cruz@Continen          Santa Cruz River at Continental Road
    6060     0.00       0.08       0.16        0.20         1.22      Santa Cruz@Conoa             Santa Cruz River at Elephant Head Road
    6080     0.04       0.08       0.12        0.12         1.34      Santa Cruz@Tubac             Santa Cruz River at Tubac
    6310     0.00       0.00       0.20        0.24         0.98      Keystone Peak                Keystone Peak
    6320     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.08         1.18      Tinaja Ranch                 near Caterpillar Proving Ground
    6330     0.00       0.00       0.08        0.08         1.10      Anamax                       Mission Road north of Continental Road
    6350     0.00       0.04       0.12        0.12         1.18      Elephant Head Butte          near Elephant Head Butte
    6390     0.04       0.20       0.35        0.35         2.80      Florida Canyon               Florida Canyon Work Center

There were numerous storm totals over 2 inches throughout the State, mountain ones that can be seen in the USGS rolling 24 h archive here (amounts will diminish due to the continuous updating that goes on, as with the PC ALERT gauges), and in the rainlog network from the U of AZ, and in the CoCoRahs reports for Arizona, the latter two sites do not have complete 24 h totals ending at 7 AM AST until several hours after 7 AM AST.

Southern California rains exceeded 10 inches in several mountain locals over the past few days, almost 14 inches at one mountain site in Ventura County. So, SC’ans are quite happy, today anyway.

——————————————–

Wow; those sunset clouds!

Good grief, there was quite the spectacular mammatus display late yesterday. Even resembled the great mammatus ahead of the El Reno tornado in OK last May. Then, as the sun set in a brief clearing to the west, the downward protruding bulges became lit, and the yellow-orange color of the fading sun light (as it passed through a great distance through the lower atmosphere and the shorter wavelengths of blues get scattered out) lit up the ground and foothills of the Catalinas. It was almost too gaudy to be real and not “shopped” as we say today.

6:51 AM. Sun burst on Stratocumulus. — 6:51 AM. Sun burst on Stratocumulus bases.

4:22 PM. Incoming Cumulonimbus mammatus. The core of this shower was far to the S beyond Pusch Ridge.

6:11 PM. Rainbow enhances sky mammatus drama.

6:16 PM. Mammatus bulges down out of "Altostratus cumulonimbogenitus." — 6:16 PM. Mammatus bulges down out of “Altostratus cumulonimbogenitus.”

Expecting lots of nice looking Cumulus today, maybe some ice/virga, but no measurable rain.

The End

——————————-

¹Titular nod to one of the great novel of our time, written some decades ago,

On the Catalina trails with lenticularis

First, Cal drought bustin’ rain update:

As much as 1-2 inches as far south as Ventura County so far, 3-4 inches in the coastal mountains of central Cal as of just now (4 AM AST). Rolling 24 h Cal State archive here. LA area rain here; keep an eye on Opids Camp and Crystal Lake FC. Totals in NW LA County just now going over an inch. Following this drought bustin’ sequence, while just a” two shot wonder”, will be like watching….I don’t know..something really exciting, a weather kind of Olympics, where the favored team “drought” is taken down unexpectedly by some upstart storm. Yes, I will play the Olympics card.

And remember, this is just the lightweight division today; up next, beginning Friday in southern Cal: “Sumo wrestling”, as a 400-lb storm moves in next to push aside “Team Drought” at least for the moment. (Is Sumo wrestling an Olympic sport?) Still expecting some jumbo rain totals in the mountains of southern Cal, such as more than 10 inches at places like Opids Camp in the San Gabriel Mountains.

Speaking of jumbo totals, a friend and expert weather forecaster (and big atmos sci faculty member at Colorado State who now lives part time in Catalina), sent a stunning e-mail to me yesterday expressing his opinion that Catalina will get “1.5 to 2 inches of rain” from the second “Sumo” storm, the one that eases into Arizona late Friday and arrives here by dawn on Saturday, and then continues for around 24 h. Cloud maven here can’t go that high in his guess, doesn’t have the “testicularis” you might say, to go that high; 1 inch max is all I can come up with, but would be ecstatic if in error!

Still, this is going to be FANTASTIC! Saw some perennial wildflower blooms on the trails yesterday (see below), ones in need of a little pick-me-up–actually a big one, and this will be great for them. Fauna, too, will be happy! It may be too late for the annuals…not sure. Poppies are few, and awfully stunted this year, as many of you know.

Don’t forget, too, before our storm; those gorgeous skies! Have camera and pen ready to document and make notes about them in your weather diaries Those skies we’ll be fantastic, too, like yesterday, which was a great day to be on a horse, watching the sky.

Even when its raining the skies will be fantastic!

How many of us, even if we’re from Seattle, are STARVED for low gray, dank and dark daytime rainy skies, clouds chopping off the Catalinas a thousand feet above us, listening to rain pounding on our roofs, then running off roof making puddles, those richer shades of desert green after the rain ends, the glistening, water-covered rocks on the Catalinas in the morning sun after the storm? Its a real treasure when rain falls here.

Yesterday’s clouds

12:23 PM. You got yer Cis spis (Cirrus spissatus) topping a few Cu fractus and humilis, if I may. It was so great to see those Cumulus clouds, reminding us that July and huge clouds are only about 125 days away!

12:23 PM. You got yer Cirrus uncinus. Note fine strands hanging down. Amazing they can be so perfect, not erratic, when the wind up there is about 100 mph! — 12:23 PM. You got yer Cirrus uncinus. Note fine strands hanging down. Amazing they can be so perfect, not erratic (see arrow), when the wind up there is about 100 mph!

3:54 PM. A great line of a Ac lenticular advanced over Oro Valley. This shot was about the best I got and its not that great.

3:55 PM. Not all about clouds.... Here, a wild onion bloom maybe. — 3:55 PM. Not all about clouds..wanted to show you that I have more than one dimension. Here, a wild onion bloom maybe, slightly out of focus. Prickly pear is in focus, though.

3:55 PM. Very nice Altocumulus lenticularis formed later downwind from the Catalinas. — 3:55 PM. Very nice Altocumulus lenticularis formed later in the afternoon downwind from the Catalinas.

6:25 PM. Another very nice sunset due to some Cirrus spissatus and a few lower Altocumulus clouds.

On the weather horizon

Mods still have unusually warm weather here in the storm after life, 8-12 days out (cold in the East continues, too). But, then some Catalina rains continue to show up after that hot spell when you think May is already here.

The End.

Dull Altostratus-ee day yesterday, but big Pac storm continues to move toward Catalina!

That thick (likely more than 3 km, or more than 10,000 feet) and steady gray sky diet of Altostratus opacus clouds didn’t provide a lot of visual highlights most of yesterday, in contrast to the many Altocumulus flocculations of the day before. An example of yesterday’s sky for most of the day:

3:50 PM. Altostratus opacus. Or is it? Not much going on here¹.

Virga hung down here and there, and some radar echoes during the day suggested a sprinkle here and there reached the ground, but none here.

Later, as usually happens, the tops of the clouds lowered, as did the bases, and we had some pretty Altocumulus again, some with long trails of virga, indicating a deep moist layer below cloud bottoms. For a time, as dewpoints rose, it looked like Ms. Lemmon might be topped with Sc, but those lowest clouds did not get quite low enough.

5:14 PM. Two layers of Altocumulus are present, the lower one having spires (Ac castellanus). Nice lighting on mountains.

5:08 PM. Two layers of Altocumulus are present, the lower one having spires (Ac castellanus), to repeat.

6:23 PM. Heavy virga issues from an old Altocumulus cloud, its once higher, pyramidal top has collapsed as snow developed in it and in essence, hangs down in an upside down version of what it once was — 6:23 PM. Heavy virga issues from an old Altocumulus cloud, its once higher, pyramidal or mounding top has collapsed as snow developed in it and in essence, hangs down in an upside down version of what it once was (though not as tall as the virga is long here).

The Tucson balloon sounding (rawinsonde) for 5 PM AST (launched about 3:30 PM, rise at about 1,000 feet a minute.) BTW, takes about an hour and a half to get the whole depth normally measured, to around 100, 000 feet. During that time, or even during the first hour, the atmo is changing, so when its at 40,000 feet, what is measured at 3,000 feet isn't the same anymore. Introduces slight error into models into which these data get fed. Models think its an instantaneous view of the atmo over Tucson. I think you should know this. — The Tucson balloon sounding (rawinsonde) for 5 PM AST (launched about 3:30 PM, and rise at about 1,000 feet a minute.) BTW, takes about an hour and a half to get the whole depth normally measured, to around 100, 000 feet. During that time, or even during the first hour, the atmo is changing, so when its at 40,000 feet, what is measured at 3,000 feet isn’t the same anymore. Introduces slight error into models into which these data get fed. Models think its an instantaneous view of the atmo over Tucson at 5 PM AST (00 Z time). I think you should know this. Note tops of that Ac with heavy virga were about -30 C (-22 F)! Notice, too, that some of those higher, colder Altocumulus flakes are not showing virga in the sunset photo above.

Weathering just ahead….

Rain One (“Little Bro”) is moving onto California coast as I write. Residents in towns like the very-expensive-to-live-in Monterrey rejoicing as drops patter on rooftops now! The negative news here is that the Canadian model has lessened the area of rain in Arizona as Rain 1 passes over us, confines the rain to central and northern AZ mountains now, still light, but not as widespread as before.

At the same time, the US WRF-GFS model has been adding rain in AZ from Rain 1; previously it had NONE. Now, these mods have now come together over us² to quote a song title from the last century, both showing about the same thing, so that’s probably what will happen. Just rain to the north of us. So, a little less of a close call to Catalina tomorrow as Rain 1 goes by. Just middle and high clouds for us, and probably some virga, nice sunrises and sunsets.

Rain 2, “Big Bro” moves into southern Cal tomorrow night, and still looks like a real and necessary pounder for southern Cal before moving on and drenching little Catalina. Will report on those SC amounts to see how big they get, too.

Rain should be falling here in Catalina by Saturday dawn and continue all day. Range of amounts, still a not-so-great quarter inch on the bottom (if things don’t go well), but top (if things go really well) still an inch! How great would that be? So, best guess about 0.60 inches here in Catalina, from averaging those two “extrema.” Later today, our U of AZ Beowulf Cluster model computations will start to have some quantitative amounts from actual calculations, not just a SOP guess from yours truly. Check here at the U of AZ later in the day for accumulated totals based on this morning’s 5 AM AST data.

Way out there

While our drencher on the weekend seems to be a one-shot wonder for at least a week after it passes, the longest view from our WRF-GFS, valid way out on March 13 at 5 PM AST, 360 h from last night’s model run, has another major storm moving into the SW, but this time it doesn’t come from the west, but from the NW. This is a climatological norm; storms tend to move from NW to SE during the spring months in the western US, and so there’s SOME climatology to hang your hat on that the rain forecast below for us may be a real event, not a fantasy storm, as so often happens that far into the future in our models. See the map below, from IPS MeteoStar’s rendering of the WRF-GFS to brighten your day that bit more, knowing one good rain is coming, and maybe, just MAYBE, the pattern is shifting to a normal one with an occasional rain here in Catalina beginning after mid-March.

Valid at 5 PM, March 13. Green areas denote those regions where the model thinks it has rained during the prior 12 h.

—————————————

3:50 PM. Actual Altostratus opacus. I've been talkin' clouds here for quite awhile, and in a clever kind of a test, wanted to see if you could tell the difference between the side of my gray car and an Altostratus cloud. — 3:50 PM. Actual Altostratus opacus. I’ve been talkin’ clouds here for quite awhile, and in a clever kind of a test, wanted to see if you could tell the difference between the side of my gray car and an Altostratus cloud. Its pretty important to me that you get this right.

Smoothies

7:46 AM. Stratocumulus lenticularis castellanus (has spires), an oxymoronic cloud. You would call this Stratocumulus because its low enough to top Ms. Mt. Lemmon. While some turrets can be seen, others are causing shadows. Have never really seen something quite like this and I look a LOT.

10:35 AM. Stratocumulus lenticularis on the Catalinas. The moist air is resisting like mad being lifted over the Catalinas. Oddly, once condensation occurs a bit of heat is released and on the left you see that it was enough heat to allow a Cumulus turret to rise out of the smooth cloud. This is pretty darn rare site, seeing such smoothness AND Cumulus rising out of the same deck.

3:46 PM. Cumulus humilis, no ice, except in those Cirrus clouds on the right.

5:28 PM. Sun dog, or mock sun, also “parhelia” in natural Cirrus and in a contrail. The parhelia is likely brighter in the contrail since the simple hexagonal (six-sided) plate-like ice crystals that cause parhelias are smaller and more numerous in the early stages of a contrail.

Today’s clouds

Much like two days ago. Higher based Stratocumulus/Altocumulus with patches of heavy virga and sprinkles around.
Back edge of the cloud mass times in around 2-4 PM. Might be a little early for a great sunset, but just in case, have camera ready.

Looking farther ahead….

Still mainly dry through the next two weeks, though close call on the 7th, a situation that appears much like today, That close rain call NOW appears in both the Canadian and US WRF-GFS models (yesterday they were vastly different). So, with that, a chance of a few hundredths here after nightfall on the 6th into the morning of the 7th.

Spaghetti, in a dismal series of plots, also shows little hope for rain here through the 20th. So, even with mistakes in the initial analyses, deliberate ones to see how different the forecast maps turn out, we still can’t exit our drought! Oh, me. Poor wildflowers.

The End (did you see the giant mammatus/testicularis to the north this morning? If not, here it is:

7:15 AM today. Altostratus opacus mammatus.

Hydrometeors shower down on Catalina

Note redundancy in title. A “meteor” is already going down, so you don’t need the word “down.” Hahaha.

They were small drops, some were as small as drizzle-sized (500 microns in diameter or smaller) and too far apart to be called an occurrence of “drizzle”, but they fell throughout Catalina allowing Catalinans to register a trace of rain yesterday, a trace that was not predicted by the best model we have around these parts just hours before the “rain” occurred. It’s not clear what the benefit of a trace of precipitation is, but we are sure some ants and other insects were made quite happy yesterday as a virga from a higher level snowstorm spit out a few drops.

Drops that reach the ground in these kinds of situations are due to melted aggregates or clusters of single snow crystals locked together that most people would call “snowflakes.” Single crystals can never make to the ground on a day like yesterday. And, “yep”, that “fog” you saw drooping down on the Catalinas from time to time yesterday afternoon was due to light snow.

No Catalina, Arizona, rain in US mod forecasts through the next 15 days (!–just horrible) as the US models continue to evaporate rain chances on the 6th-8th. A few days ago the system going by then was supposed to bring a substantial rain to most of Arizona. Now its just a dry trough passage in the model, like at watering trough¹ with a hole in the bottom. Phooey.

Oddly, the Canadian model, which first calculated a bust for rain here on the 6th-8th when the US model had lots, now has MORE rain in it near us here in Catalina on the 6th-7th than the lugubrious US model. The US model has NO RAIN whatsoever in the WHOLE State of Arizona ending on the morning of the 7th! How odd is that?

Below is the salubrious Canadian depiction for Arizona rain by the morning of the 7th, a rain that could be good for health of all of us and our desert:

Valid at 5 AM February 7th. Ttrough is already past us, but the Canadians believe that widespread rain will have occurred in Arizona during the prior 12 h as the trough went overhead. No such widespread rain in US model based on the same global dataset, the one based on 5 PM AST obs yesterday. — Valid at 5 AM February 7th. The upper level trigger for clouds and rain, a trough, is already past us and in western New Mexico, but the Canadians believe that widespread rain will have occurred in Arizona as it went by during the prior 12 h ! See lower right hand panel green and blue areas; use microscope.

Its interesting how you still can remember with fondness those people who affected your life so much, even if for a short time.

Below, after an important aside, your cloud day picture jumble, one that began with a brief, but memorable sunrise “bloom”, and one that also ended with great sunset color on the Catalinas.

9:43 AM. A brief clearing of a couple of hours duration led to pretty scenes of Altocumulus floccus trailing virga.

8:21 AM. Altocumulus floccus/castellanus trailing long trails of snow virga trails.

The End.

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¹Images of watering troughs, in case you’re from out-of-state and a city person and unfamiliar with western culteral expressions and don’t know what a watering trough is.

————–sports cultural note re Seattle—————

The polite, law-abiding folk of Seattle, celebrating Super Bowl victory at an intersection, waiting for the light to change.

Cool and pretty

I’m talking about your clouds and weather day yesterday, and definitely NOT about someone whom I shall call, “Sharon¹“, that happened to me 33 years ago and whose birthday was yesterday, Ground Hog Day, a day commemorated by a 1993 movie about a weatherman. Seemed “right”, too, to be a weatherman with a girlfriend whose birthday was on Ground Hog Day. I loved her so much! Was definitely in the first stage of the psychologist’s lab standard, the Passionate Love Scale² ; euphoric when things were going right, and also a stage characterized by delusional and obsessive thinking. (Haven’t we all been there at some point?) Had a great sense of humor and playfulness about her, too. As it turned out, though, I wasn’t good enough for her. (I really wasn’t; she was a med student and all that; very brainy, so there was quite a mental contrast.)

Oh, yeah, NOW for the clouds yesterday on a cool day which is what I was talking about to being with; high only 55 F here in the “Heights”:

6:06 PM. Altostratus, of course, with slight virga consisting of very light snow. Too thick to be Cirrus.

3:18 PM. Altocumulus perlucidus. What the temperature? In the middle of the photo there’s an ice canal–hoped you logged it in your weather diary. That ice canal was caused by an aircraft passing through a cloud that’s well below freezing. The exact reason for the sudden freezing of drops in that cloud is still being investigated. However, when you see this phenomenon, an ice canal or hole punch cloud, I want you to FIRST think of ME, because our paper on this phenomenon was rejected twice back in the early 1980s before being published, and second, when you see this happen, estimate that the droplet cloud was probably at -20 C (-4 F) or colder. Yes, THAT cold and still composed of droplets! Therefore it produces a buildup of ice on an aircraft when one flies through it, but then the aircraft changes that by converting to ice behind it! How strance is that?. (I deliberately misspelled “strange” to see if anyone has read this far.)

3:19 PM. Frosty the Lemmon. Good sign of rime icing on those trees up there. You see how frosty they look? Likely because of supercooled cloud droplets hitting the trees and freezing during all the low clouds of the previous day. Very pretty.

2:19 PM. “Angel’s hair”, Cirrus fibratus. The delicateness of those striations are amazing when you think that they are traveling in air moving at around 80 mph up there around 30-odd thousand feet above us.

The weather ahead

Can this really happen when such a great trough goes by as later today and tomorrow? Check out our missing rain, being in a rainless “sandwich”, from the U of AZ fabulous Beowulf Cluster run from 11 PM AST just last night, though not so great an output.

Below, the predicted total rain in Arizona as this great trough goes by. NIL in Catalina! The map below is a forecast of all the rain areas and their amounts expected by 2 PM AST tomorrow afternoon. Fortunately, it has been, as in basketball, “rejected.” Read details in caption.

As happens in basketball, I am rejecting this, sending it to the floor! Expect a trace to maybe a tenth. No drop will escape my attention! — Expect a trace to maybe a tenth. No drop will escape my attention!

The End. I hope you’re happy now since I have titillated you with a personal story in a cheap attempt to raise blog ratings. Haven’t broke into the top 10 million blogs yet. But maybe if min is more like “Entertainment Tonight”, I make that breakthrough.

———–

BTW, if you haven’t heard yet: “Seattle Celebrate (sic) SB Win!”, a title and article written by a possible drunken AP writer after the SB, if you’re interested.

————–
¹Defintely NOT a picture of “Sharon”, but its how she MIGHT have looked had she been in my Seattle living room with her son, New Year’s Eve, 1981. And, of course, I found someone I loved just as much later…

²Don’t believe me that such a thing exists? Read the first column of SCI CLIPPINGS CAUDATE OVER HEELS IN LOVE 001, no less. Probably goes farther in its discussion of these kinds of things than we really want to know about and how they came to know them…be advised.

See this; read these!

Not much to say, so will let others speak after showing you this sunset from last evening:

6:01 PM. Best described, due to thickness and coverage, as Altostratus clouds. Note fine virga underneath. It would be a very, very light snow if you were skimming the bottom here. Crystals? Bullet rosettes, natch! Too cold for anything else. — 6:01 PM. Best described, due to thickness and coverage, as Altostratus. Note fine virga underneath. It would be a very, very light snow if you were skimming the bottom here. Crystals? Bullet rosettes, natch! Too cold for anything else that had time to grow big enough to fall out.

————————-on claims module——————————–

About really cold air outbursts as we have had in the East (Great Lakes freezing over, etc.) and global warming…. Let’s see what Mike has to say (gonna be a little technical with a ton of references), but I think you might get SOMETHING out of these.

3-13-12_Wallace on extreme events and in Science mag

Who the HECK is Mike?

Check here and here. Awards? Too numerous to mention. And he may be the most disinterested person you will ever meet in the current “climate wars” surrounding the issue of anthropogenic global warming¹. I don’t mean by “disinterested” that he is bored with his work (haha) but rather that he refrains from axe grinding, stays aloof from the emotions and partisanship that we see so much of in that domain. HELL, I get mad myself sometimes.

Enjoy, if you can.

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Sorry to say there’s no rain in the computer outputs here for another 15 days. Pattern of warm and dry in the West, cold in the East continues to dominate computer forecasts.

The End.

¹Fueled in particular these days by the halt in the rise in the earth’s temperature over the past 15 years or so when it was predicted it would continue rising GRADUALLY by our best computer models.

White holiday season day still in the cards

“Cards” in title referring to computer models, not some kind of goofy fortune telling thing, though, in fact, the models can be kind of goofy, too.

Also by talking about the exciting weather ahead here in Catalina (how many inches will it pile up?), I wanted to deflect attention from error. No rain here in Catland yesterday, as thought likely a couple of days ago (thanks to Enviro Can’s GEM model), though a couple of light showers and even a thunderstorm were close by. There was even a lightning strike from the cell shown below according to the National Lightning Detection Network, one that’s off limits for the tax payers who paid for it. (Must go through private weather providers or work at a university to see the NLDN directly, quite an outrage, as was the case in the early years of Doppler radar data.)

4 PM AST. Radar and satelllite IR image from IPS MeteoStar. — 4 PM AST. Radar and satellite IR image from IPS MeteoStar. Arrow points to Cumulonimbus cloud that briefly erupted to the SE of us.

While Yesterday’s Gone, for Chad and Jeremy¹, here are some clouds shots anyway…

First of all, the long foretold and then bailed on Altocumulus castellanus (and floccus) showed up yesterday morning:

11:09 AM. Altocumulus floccus and castellanus. Floccus has a ragged base. From the taken- while-not-driving collection though it looks like it. Professional course, do not attempt. — 11:09 AM. Altocumulus floccus and castellanus. Floccus has a ragged base; cas a flat base, not that it matters that much. From the taken- while-not-driving collection though it looks like it. Professional course, do not attempt.

2:59 PM. Later in the afternoon, scattered Cumulus clouds were aplenty under some remaining Altocumulus, but did not attain the ice-forming level, with a couple of exceptions, which of course, I will have to show.

3:44 PM. Moderate Cumulus (mediocris) over the Catalinas. Can you find the remnant puff of ice from the highest turret formerly in this grouping? — 3:44 PM. Small and moderate Cumulus (humilis and mediocris) over the Catalinas. Can you find the remnant puff of ice from the highest turret formerly in this grouping? That ice puff up there tells you that one of these rained on someone earlier. Hope you logged it in your clouds and weather diary…

Same photo as above except with annotation and s... like that. I don't cuss but it sounded funny to write that, detracting just that bit from erudition. — Same photo as above except with annotation and s… like that. I don’t cuss but it sounded funny to write that, detracting just that bit from erudition; stepping out of character for humor. I laughed anyway. Maybe this blog is just for me anyway. That’s what my brother says.

4:40 PM. Dramatic scenes like this on the Catalinas closed out our dry day.

5:19 PM. Fading clouds and drier air move in from the southwest. All threat of rain is gone, but not of a great sunset.

What’s that about white stuff?

Here’s the latest 500 millybar map (flow around 18,000 feet above sea level):

Valid at 5 AM AST, Friday, December 20th. Those bowls in the SW are going to be SO COLD! Poor guys. — Valid at 5 AM AST, Friday, December 20th, rendered by IPS MeteoStar. Those bowl games in the SW are going to be SO COLD! Poor guys.

Big U-turn in jet stream shown over AZ and all the way to Canada! On the east side of the U-turn are clouds and precipitation and sh… like that. (hahahaha, to continue an out of character theme for a second for humorous purposes…) In the middle of the U-turn are the lowest freezing levels, on this map, low enough in AZ for snow here has either already occurred, or is on the doorstep or already here. On the backside of the U-turn, where the wind is blowing out of the north, the air is mostly subsiding, drying out, clearing off, allowing huge amounts of infrared heat to escape from the earth’s surface into space.

Here’s something else… See how much stronger the wind at this level is over CA, OR, and WA than in the eastern part of the U-turn? That means the U-turn itself is going to push farther S as time goes on, a mechanical thing. This would be a VERY cold episode for us, hard freeze variety, when the clouds and precip clear off.

While the amount of precip here has varied as the exact configuration and placement of the jet has varied in model run to model run, the OVERALL pattern of very cold air getting here has remained in place. Be ready!

Note, too, in the map above that the strongest winds at this level are WELL south of us, and so its already preciped here. Now I will look and see when the precip starts with this gargantuan trough and record cold (in part of the West) pattern first takes hold: OK, looks like the night of the 19th-20th, starting out as rain, changing to snow as storm ends, IMO.

Terribly cold weather will impact the whole West, and punish the northern Rockies and Plains States again. You’ll be reading/hearing about this one during the through the runup to Christmas, so similar to the blast of cold air that broke so many low temperature records last week. Will be tough on travelers. Not so happy about that prospect.

BTW, just to make a point about those crazy NOAA spaghetti factory plots: they have been pointing confidently, as readers of this blog will know, for more than ten days or so, to another pretty extreme weather event here and throughout the West, and that’s where they come in as an important tool for weather forecasters, when a strong signal shows up. Normally, weather forecasts go pretty bad after five days to a week. But “Lorenz”-spaghetti plots can help us see through the fog of middle range forecasting sometimes. That’s why you look at them everyday to see what’s up beyond the first five days or so.

BTW#2, all of this crashing down of the jet stream suddenly into the West after our nice spell of weather, is due to that jumbo storm that erupts in the western Pacific, builds a high pressure ridge ahead of it, and then that causes the mild-mannered jet crossing the coast in British Columbia to go into a southward, buckling rage, dragging record cold air behind it as it does so from northern Canada. That key gigantic eruption in the western Pacific has also been predicted with confidence day after day.

Really going overboard today, got up too early I can see that…. Below, the first the “la-dee-dah” spaghetti plot valid just two days from now:

See how the illustrative contours are piling into BC and northern Washington State? Over us and the WHOLE West, is a big fat ridge. No problems. Toasty weather, here too, for December. Note also, how small the errors are that are deliberately introduced at the beginning of the model test (or “ensemble” runs)! They hardly make any difference in a 48 h forecast (the lines run on top of each other). The giant low in the western Pac has not yet erupted, so there’s not much amplitude to the jet stream, its just pretty much west to east flow, la dee dah.

But look below at the waviness (amplitude) of the flow in the Pacific AFTER the giant low erupts, forming a big ridge downstream!

Valid at 5 PM AST, Thursday, December 18th; pattern caving in. Wrote all over this, got too excited about what's ahead. — Valid at 5 PM AST, Thursday, December 18th; pattern caving in. Wrote all over this, got too excited about what’s ahead.

Whew! Quitting here, got a little over worked today about the weather way ahead. Too long to proof, too…. But HELL, its the internet; don’t have to be a great writer to be on the internet²!

The End, except for historical culture footnote below.

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¹Part of the “British invasion”. If you’re a kid, have your parents explain to you that it was not a military thing to reclaim America except in terms of music. Pop music here wasn’t good enough (Beatles were better than the Beach Boys I guess) in the mid-1960s, and so they came, and they came and they came from that little island nation with their weird hair styles and great hooks and dominated the air waves. Pretty soon, everybody had weird hair styles.

From Saturday Review... — From The Atlantic Magazine…

Pretty cloud day yesterday; storms dead ahead and ahead

In case you missed the pretty sights of yesterday:

7:05 AM. Sunrise on the Altocumulus. Two layers are evident.

8:42 AM. Kind of blasé except for the rarely-seen-in-AZ (faint) halo. Altocumulus with Cirrostratus above.

3:30 PM. Pretty patterns; Altocumulus perlucidus.

4:45 PM. Cirrus uncinus and Altocumulus (clouds with shading). — 4:45 PM. Cirrus fibratus (not hooked or tufted at top) and Altocumulus (droplet clouds at right with darker shading). Lower gray portions beyond Pusch Ridge and extending to the horizon is probably best termed Altostratus.

4:56 PM. Nice lighting effects on Samaniego Ridge. — 4:56 PM. Nice lighting on Samaniego Ridge.

5:21 PM. Your sunset. Nice underlit virga from patchy ice clouds. Could be termed Cirrus spissatus or Altostratus, if you care. — 5:21 PM. Your sunset. Nice underlit virga (light snow fallout, likely single ice crystals, not flakes) from patchy ice clouds. Could be termed Cirrus spissatus or Altostratus, if you care. What kind of crystals, you ask or didn’t? Bullet rosettes.

The clouds and weather just ahead

Expect more Altocumulus, Cirrus, and Altostratus today, patchy and gorgeous. Would expect some nice Ac castellanus (one with spires) as an upper level low off Baja starts to move toward us. Some measurable rain likely tomorrow in the area, but probably barely measurable, maybe a tenth at most since it will fall from middle clouds with a lot of dry air underneath them. (Enviro Can mod still sees rain around here tomorrow.)

Middle clouds might get large enough to call the (small) Cumulonimbus clouds, with a slight chance of lightning tomorrow, Thursday, as this low moves up and over us.

So both today and tomorrow will have some great clouds!

WAY ahead; watch out!

After a quiescent period of gorgeous, misleading days, where the temperatures gradually recover to normal values and you’re gloating over the nice weather you’re experiencing by coming to Arizona from Michigan, blammo, the whole thing caves in with strong storms and very cold air heading this way. Yesterday’s 18 Z WRF-GOOFUS model run for 500 millibars (rendered by IPS MeteoStar), was, if you like HEAVY precipitation throughout Arizona, well, truly”orgasmic.” You just cannot have a better map at 500 mb for Arizona than this one from that run. That low center over California, should this verify, would be filled with extremely cold air from the ground on up, cold enough that snow in Catalina would be expected as it goes by. So, there’s even a prospect of a white Christmas holiday season. Imagine.

Valid 264 h from 11 AM AST yesterday morning, or for 11 AM AST, Saturday, beginning of football bowl season I think, which last until February I think. — Valid 264 h from 11 AM AST yesterday morning, or for 11 AM AST, Saturday, beginning of football bowl season, which last until February I think.

Now will this verify exactly like this? Nope, not a chance. But, spaghetti tells us we’re going to be in the Trough Bowl, filled with cold air and passing storms beginning in 8-10 days from now. How much precip and how cold exactly it gets is unknown because these progs will flop around in positioning the troughs that head our way. There will be major troughs passing through, so while the amount of precip is questionable, the cold air intrusion is not. It was just so neat, exciting, mind-blowing to see that such a gargantuan storm has been put on the table for us in that 18 Z run.

Most likely subsequent model runs will take this exact map away, but then put something like it back, until we get much closer to verification day, the 21st. May even shift around on which day is the doozy, too, by a couple of days either side. Still, a really exciting period of weather is ahead.

This may seem odd, but one of the keys to our storms way ahead is the eruption of a huge storm in the western Pacific (and that storm is shown developing in the last day (144 h panel) of the Enviro Can mod.

———–dense reading below————-

That erupting, giant low pressure center will shoot gigantic amounts of warm air from the tropical ocean far to the north ahead of it in the central Pacific. That warm air shooting north, in turn, causes a bugle to the north in the jet stream, a ridge, which deflects the jet toward the north toward the Arctic. As the jet stream does that, there is almost an immediate response downstream from the ridge; the jet stream begins to turn to the south, developing a bigger an bigger bulge, or trough to the south. So, a jet stream running on a straight west to east path across the Pacific can be totally discombobulated when a giant storm at the surface arises and shoots heat in the form of clouds and warm air northward¹. In this case, all of this takes place beginning in the Pacific in about 6 days, so that a sudden southward bulge, a buckling of the jet stream, due to that giant low in the western Pacific 8, 000 miles away, happens over the western US. And voila, our big cold and maybe our big storms, too. then.

————end of lead-filled text———

The End.

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¹First noted by much-honored meteorologist, Jerome Namias, who did not have the Ph. D. but was great anyway, in the early 1950s.

Clouds without comment

Remember Consumer Reports, “Quotes Without Comment” page? Well, I am lying like anything here¹.

Only ONE comment today (I’m lying again), but its about wind today. It will pick up suddenly from the north later this morning or in the early afternoon, and be gusty and cold. We here in Catalina get more of this north wind than, say, TUS, which is blocked from this wind by the Catalina Mountains. A big high is bulging into Utah, a state north of us, that’s why.

Next rain chances, a weak one late Wednesday or Thursday, and a stronger one around the 20-22nd, the latter as spaghetti has been suggesting for some time now.

Your cloud day below in case you were inside watching football television all day:

7:03 AM. Note light rainshowers on north horizon. Only a trace here.

9:14 AM. Looks pretty much the same. Hmmm. That's a comment. When it comes to clouds, I guess I just can't shut up, even when they're boring. — 9:14 AM. Looks pretty much the same. Hmmm. That’s a comment. When it comes to clouds, I guess I just can’t shut up, even when they’re boring Stratocumulus.

9:15 AM. Only a minute later! Yes, a "concerto in gray" yesterday, and I want to make sure you see all of it. — 9:15 AM. Only a minute later! Yes, a “Concerto in Gray” yesterday, to allude to some music that has not yet been written (perhaps it will be one day by a depressed composer), and I want to make sure you see all of the gray we had. Gray was my favorite color in elementary school! THought you’d like to know that. Man, after a second cup of coffee I am just exploding with interesting information!

11:49. Still "Overcast in Stratocumulus"; could be the second movement in "Concerto in Gray." Signs of break up here. another potential — 11:49. Still “Overcast in Stratocumulus”; could be the second movement in “Concerto in Gray.” Signs of break up here.

11:50 AM. Some of you are dropping away like this horse. Can't take it anymore. Well, I demand a million dollars to stop blogging! — 11:50 AM. Some of you are dropping away like Jake the horse. Can’t take it anymore. Well, I demand a million dollars to stop blogging! Note, however, that “Dreamer” the horse is still paying attention, setting a good example.

3:26 PM. Skies eventually opened up and our pretty deep blue skies returned amid the small Cumulus and shallow Stratocumulus, a rousing, happy finale to our "Concerto in Gray." — 3:26 PM. Skies eventually opened up and our pretty deep blue skies returned amid the small Cumulus and shallow Stratocumulus, a rousing, happy finale to our “Concerto in Gray.”

3:58 PM. "Frosty the Lemmon"; could be a popular Christmas song. If you stepped away from football television for even a minute, you might have noticed this interesting look on Ms. Lemmon. This frosty look is almost certainly due to "riming" on the trees, the collection of supercooled cloud drops in clouds that are not snowing much or at all. Substantial water can be collected by trees on mountains when supercooled clouds envelope them. Hope that science not wasn't piling on the boring for you. Piling on can be a penalty in football if it happens late like in this blog. I demand two millions dollars to stop blogging! — 3:58 PM. “Frosty the Lemmon”; could be a popular Christmas song. If you stepped away from football television for even a minute, you might have noticed this interesting look on Ms. Lemmon. This frosty look is almost certainly due to “riming” on the trees, the collection of supercooled cloud drops by the trees in windy clouds that are not snowing much or at all envelope them. The liquid drops hit and freeze and buildup on them, much like airframe icing. Substantial water can be collected by trees on mountains when supercooled clouds envelope them in windy conditions like yesterday. Hope that bit of science wasn’t piling on the boring for you. “Piling on” can be a penalty in football if it happens late, like in this blog. I demand TWO millions dollars to stop blogging!

5:20 PM. OK, some ice cream on your plain oatmeal; a pertty sunset, pastel Altocumulus above (gray, of course) Stratocumulus.

The End, at last. You can wake up now, horsey!

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¹It comes pretty easily to weather forecasters, but you do have to speak with conviction; a certain degree of authenticity has to be imparted when lying. :}