The weather ahead – Page 7

Spaghetti is back!

Due to some kind of server meltdown, the NOAA spaghetti plots, better, “Lorenz plots” in honor of “Dr. Chaos”, Edward N. Lorenz, the ones my fans¹ like so much, have not been available.

But they’re back today!

But what are they telling us? Gander this for Christmas Day:

Valid at 5 PM AST Christmas Day, December 25 th. I've annotated it especially for you. — Valid at 5 PM AST Christmas Day, December 25th. I’ve annotated it especially for you. The view is one where your looking down at where Santa lives from a big tower. Not all annotations are accurate.

Don’t need to tell you that the weather looks like there’s a good chance of cold and threatening weather for Christmas Day. Big trough implanting itself in the West around then. Maybe those easterners who hogged all the cold air last winter will share some of it this winter. The warmth we had last winter made it bad for horsey with all the fly larvae that survived.

Kind of bored now with the rain immeidately ahead, but only because everybody else is talking about it, too. Its no fun when you don’t have a scoop and you’re just saying things that other people are already saying. Even my brother in North Carolina, who knows nothing about weather, told ME that it was going to rain here on Thursday! How lame is that? Of course, it is true that you won’t here anywhere else that the chance of measurable rain is more than 100% this week in Catalina ; at least I still have that. Tell your friends.

When does it fall? Sometime, maybe multiple times, between Tuesday afternoon and Friday morning. Hahaha, sort of.

Looks like the first trough and weather system will go over on Tuesday through Wednesday, chances of rain then, and yet another colder one on Wednesday night into Thursday. So, 100% chance of measurable rain falling sometime between Tuesday afternoon and Friday morning, probably in several periods of rain. Look for a frosty Lemmon Friday morning.

Predicted amounts from this keyboard? Think the bottom of this several day period of individual rain events will be only a quarter of an inch. Top, could be an inch, if everything falls into place. Canadian mod from 5 PM AST global data yesterday, for now has dried up one of the storms, that on Thursday, the day the USA! model thinks is our best chance for good rains based on the virtually same global data! Of note, the USA model based on 11 PM AST data, has begun to lessen our Thursday storm that bit.

This is the reason that the certainty of measurable rain here in Catalina is spread over such a several day period.

Your cloud day yesterday

Just various forms of Cirrus, most seemingly from old contrails that produced exceptional parhelias (sun dogs, mock suns).

Very contrail-ee sunset, too, as contrail lines advanced from the west. They were likely more than an hour old when they passed over Catalina yesterday.

10:56 AM. Glistening rocks after the rain. Very nice. Cu fractus at moutain tops.

2:36 PM. Nice example of the rare seen Cirrostratus fibratus (has lines in it). Hope you logged it.

3:42 PM. Looks like old contrails to this old eye, resembling CIrrus radiatus. The "radiating" aspect may be due to perspective. — 3:42 PM. Looks like old contrails to this old eye, resembling CIrrus radiatus. The “radiating” aspect may be due to perspective.

3:50 PM. Parhelia lights up in CIrrus. These, due to the high speed of Cirrus movement, only last seconds in thin streamers like these. To get really spectacular optics the crystals up there have to be especially simple, like plates and stubby columns, maybe prisms as well. When aircraft create contrails, there is an excess of ice crystals, far more than occur in natural Cirrus as a rule, and due to that high concentration, can’t grow much and usually stay as simple crystals, not develop complicated forms like bullet rosettes, crystals with stems sticking out every which way.

5:23 PM. Contrail-ee sunset. Pretty, but awful at the same time, since it shows how the natural sky can be impacted by us in our modern lives. You wonder how much of us the earth can take?

The End

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¹Why just recently C-M had a comment from a fan in Lebanon³, that country near Israel, not the one in Ohio²! Said it was warm there now, but normally it rains for days at time in the winter, and gets real cold. You see, the eastern Mediterranean is, climatologically speaking, a trough bowl. Troughs just hang out there a lot, creating something called the “Cypress Low.” Though it only rains in the cool season, October through May, as in Israel, places in Lebanon get 25 -40 inches of rain during that time, and its exciting rain because it almost all falls from Cumulonimbus clouds, many with lightning! C-M is getting pretty excited, since he’s on record as wanting to go Lebanon to study the clouds there! See Lingua Franca article from 1997! He loves those Mediterranean wintertime Cu. Hell, you probably threw it out, so here it is: Lingua Franca _1997. See last sentence. last page. Thanks.

²Speaking of Ohio, who can forget that great 1980s rant against urban sprawl in Ohio by Chrissie Hinds and the Pretenders! Will it happen to Catalina after the road project? An insurance agent told me that Catalina was to be absorbed by Oro Valley after it was completed. Oro Valley says they know nothing about that.

³“Its great when you’re global!”

“Front Light”; compare to Bud Light

Front will roar across like a mouse, not a lion, as hoped for a few days ago. Not too many rain “calories” in it. Measurable rain will still occur, starting sometime between 9 AM and 10 AM AST–oops. raining now at 7:10 AM! Check out U of AZ model for rain timing. First drops fall here in that model output (from 11 PM AST last night), between 8 AM and 9 AM. The frontal band, such as it is, is almost here! However, the model rain tends to arrive a little fast here, though not always. FYI, be on guard.

C-M is holding firm with a minimum of 0.15 inches today, but previous foretold possible top of 0.80 inches a few days ago is out of the question. Will be happy with 0.25 inches at my house. Since I am also measuring the rain as well as forecasting it, I have a feeling things will turn out fine.

There will be a nice temperature drop, windshift, and simultaneous rise in pressure as the cold front goes by–it’ll be fun for you to watch the barometer today and see the minute the front goes by as higher pressure begins to squash down on you.

Rain might reach briefly moderate intensity (defined by official weatherfolk as 0.10 to 0.30 inches per hour). It would be great if it lasted an hour at that rate, but it likely won’t. Its moving pretty fast, and it doesn’t seem like more than 2 h of rain can occur today. Look for a nice clearing in the afternoon, and a COOL evening.

Drive south if you want to avoid rain today. Jet core (in the middle levels, 500 millibars, 18, 000 feet above sea level) is almost overhead, and just to south, and that core is almost a black-white discriminator of rain here in the cool season. So, we’re on the edge of the precip today. More to the north; less to the south.

Some clouds for you

1O:55 AM, December 11. Thought you should see this nice line of Ac castellanus and floccus underneath Cirrus spissatus.

12:32 PM. Wind picking up at the ground and aloft. Note tiny Ac lenticular with Cu fractus clouds.

3:14 PM. The high cloud shield from the storm encroaches. Could call this either Cirrus spissatus or Altostratus translucidus.

5:22 PM. Now we're talkin' Altostratus with underlit mammatus and fine virga. — 5:22 PM. Now we’re talkin’ Altostratus with underlit mammatus and fine virga. So pretty.

5:29 PM. A late "bloom", not really expected. Shows that there was a clear slot far beyond the horizon. Had to pull off by the Refuse Waste station on Oracle to get this. I hope you're happy. — 5:29 PM. A late “bloom”, not really expected. Shows that there was a clear slot far beyond the horizon. Had to pull off by the Refuse Waste station on Oracle to get this. I hope you’re happy.

The weather ahead and WAY ahead

Speaking of bowls, and let’s face it, with only a 100 or so we could use a few more¹; we here in all of Arizona are in the “Trough Bowl” now.

This means that troughs (storms and cold fronts) that barge into the West Coast will gravitate to Arizona instead of bypassing us and they will do that over and over again. Being in the Trough Bowl is great fun! Lots of weather excitement for weather-centric folk like yours truly. When you’re in the Trough Bowl, the weather is “unsettled”; is NEVER really nice (if you like sun and warmth) for very long because a new front/trough is barreling in at you.

So, while today might be a little disappointing, we will have many chances to get the “real thing”, i.e., a behemoth of a trough among the many that affect us in the weeks ahead.

In the longer view, a behemoth of a trough for the Great SW has just popped out of the models¹ just last night in the 11 PM AST run! Gander this monster truck trough for AZ. Where’s that monster truck event announcer, we need him now!

Valid for 11 PM AST, Christmas Day! Wow. Can't really take this at face value that far out, but if it did happen, likely would be snow in the Catalina area, and horsey would likely need a blanket after it went by. Will keep you informed periodically about this as the days go by. — Valid for 11 PM AST, Christmas Day! Wow. Can’t really take this at face value that far out, but if it did happen, likely would be snow in the Catalina area, and horsey would likely need a blanket after it went by. Will keep you informed periodically about this as the days go by.

OK, enough weather “calories” for you today. Hope you’re excited like me.

The End

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¹Furthermore, why don’t we have bowls for women’s teams, what happened to Title IX there, maybe Beach or Sand Football? )

²As rendered by IPS MeteoStar, which is about to go from “free” to “fee” in January. Dang.

Rain continues to fall in Catalina on the 13th

Today is the 9th.

Great news! Another decent rain assured now sa the models have converged on rain here on the 12th during a nice, and very sharp cold front passage, those in which the temperature can fall from a toasty 60s to 43 F over an hour along with a withshift to the NW from gusty SW winds. So we have quite a dramatic weather event coming up. Here’s what the Canadians have to say about it:

Valid at 5 PM AST, December 13th. Areas where the model has calculated precipitation during the prior 12 h, are marked, from light to heavier amounts, green to blue to yellow. There's a little yellow in Arizona north of Catalina. — Valid at 5 PM AST, Saturday, December 13th. Areas where the model has calculated precipitation during the prior 12 h, are marked, from light to heavier amounts, green to blue to yellow. There’s a little yellow area of heavy precip over Catalina (see arrow, lower right), and that’s why I am posting this panel!

But what does it all mean, all the models predicting rain for Catalina on the 13th? Here’s what it means:

The chance of measurable rain here on Saturday, the 13th is now more than 100 %; its in the bag. Count on it. This is weather forecasting at its best. The rain may start in the early morning hours of the 13th.

The models have varied drastically on the amounts of rain, and so there’s quite a range that could occur. From this keyboard:

Minimum amount is 0.15 inches (10% chance of less than that)

Maximum amount, 0.80 inches (10% chance of more than that)¹

Since the average of those two theoretical “extremes” dreamed up for this situation by yours truly is 0.425 inches, that’s my personal prediction for my house. It helps, too, that I am the same person who will also measure the rain as well.

Will look, too, for a little ice in the rain toward the end of it as the temperature plummets after the cold front goes by.

So, what’s yours? (Everyone should have a personal prediction.)

Yesterday’s clouds

Not much going on, mostly Cirrus, then Altostratus in the afternoon, that gray icy sheet that dimmed the sun so well. However, there were a few flakes of Cirrocumulus.

7:41 AM. Kind of a mess. Some ancient contrail streaks, natural Cirrus, and some Cirrocumulus flakes (dark thin lines). Because the sun is low, Cc clouds can have shading, otherwise, no. — 7:41 AM. Kind of a mess. Some ancient contrail streaks (streak in center), natural Cirrus, and some Cirrocumulus flakes (dark thin lines). Because the sun is low, Cc clouds can have shading, otherwise, no.

4:19 PM. Classic Altostratus clouds, deep icy ones with tops at CIrrus levels, typically 25-35 kft or so above sea level. Published meteorogists, looking at satellite imagery, often call this cloud "Cirrus." How funny is that? They do that because they see in the satellite imagery that the tops are cold, less than -40 C and don't realize that only a patchy type of Cirrus, spissatus, can have shading! How funny is that, again? But, here, my reader knows better than that! — 4:19 PM. Classic Altostratus clouds, deep icy ones with tops at CIrrus levels, typically 25-35 kft or so above sea level. Published meteorogists, looking at satellite imagery, often call this cloud “Cirrus.” How funny is that? They do that because they see in the satellite imagery that the tops are cold, less than -40 C and don’t realize that only a patchy type of Cirrus, spissatus, can have shading! How funny is that, again? But, here, my reader knows better than that!

Enough fun for today….

The End

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¹Reluctantly, I remind the reader that the maximum rain amount seen for the last storm, 0.40 inches (10% chance of a greater amount), was laughable; 1.16 inches fell in Catalina/Sutherland Heights. However, in formulating an excuse, CM would point out that the models didn’t see it coming either.

Reviewing our official weather symbols, the kinds seen on maps and stuff

While waiting for the next storm and watching harmless CIrrus and Altostratus clouds float by today, I thought it would be good for you to review our weather symbols, weather “hieroglyphs,” if you will. If you are a user of them already, you know that they can make your weather/cloud diary more official looking, add luster to it.

If you have not seen these official symbols before, which are displayed below, it would be good for you to memorize and practice copying them down. Since redundancy and repetition are the greatest tools in memorization, the symbols below are repeated several times; also so that you don’t skip over one.

As a practical hint, these weather symbols also make great design elements in wrought iron gates, doors, and fences for the truly weather-centric person!

A snap quiz next week will feature questions like, “Draw the symbol for a severe sandstorm”, or the one for sleet (frozen rain drops that bounce off the pavement, aka, “ice pellets”), and of course, a real favorite phenomenon here, one often discussed, “Draw the symbol for drizzle.” Remember, a symbol is worth a lot of words!

To make this review that bit more challenging, I have not included a legend that explains what each element below represents but maybe this link does. Good luck!

The stormy weather ahead

Still looking at a number of storms ahead, December 12-20th. Here’s one, hot off the 00Z WRF-GFS model run based on global data from last evening, as rendered by IPS MeteoStar:

Valid at 5 PM AST, December 20th. Colored regions denote areas where the model thinks it has rained or snowed during the PRIOR 12 h. An arrow points to SE Arizona.

The End, symbolically, @

Heavy Altostratus to bring sprinkles-its-not-drizzle (educational title)

Also, lotta footnotes today.

Beginning to wonder, with all the middle cloud thickness out there over and SW of Baja that’s headed this way if we won’t get sprinkles that produce a little measurable rain later today or overnight….

7 AM AST. Look at all those clouds over Baja and to the west of there.You can see this whole loop from the Washington Huskies here.

Models beginning to wetten things up here as well, like that Enviro Can model that sees our tropical surge high and middle clouds passing over us now, as deep enough for measurable rain later today and overnight. Huh. U of AZ mod, the best one for us, is still dry around here except on mountain tops. Our larger scale model, however, also has some very light rain in this area now, later today into tomorrow morning.

What’s intriguing is that a little jet core at 500 mb (up there at about the height of middle clouds) passes south of us as this happens, key for precip here¹ in the cool season. The major jet stream is far to the north.

As you know, we have a bit of an El Niño going, both a “Classic Niño” as well as the “New Niño” going, and El Niños strengthen the southern portions of jet streams in the very way that we’re seeing in this situation.

They do that because its warmer than usual in the central and far eastern Pacific tropics due to heat in extra big Cumulus and Cumulonimbus clouds that pump away down there over that extra warm water, and that rising warmth produces a greater than usual difference in temperatures throughout the troposphere between the tropics and the mid-latitudes. Since jet streams are the products of temperature differences between warm and cold air around the globe, so unusually deep warmth in the tropical eastern Pacific gives a little strength tweak to jet streams coming into the coast².

SInce there are two of these lower latitude “waves” traveling along in the southern branch of the jet stream, there are TWO chances for slight rains including that for later today. The next one barges in on the 6th of December. Will again be dense middle and high clouds with virga at its worst, like this one, though again a hundredth or two could happen.

Next real rain chance, and major front passage with air that’s too cold for us, will be on the 12th. Spaghetti folk, or “Spaghetti Busters”, those who can make sense of these balls of yarn, can EASILY see that trough on the 12th and a cold front with are “in the bag” even though that’s ten days away. Rain occurrence is more dubious, since the trough may land a bit too far east to produce rain, only a lowering of temperatures. Here is that plot from last evening. Enjoy.

Valid at 5 PM, December 12th. Pretty clear a nice trough will be in the area then.

Your yesterday’s clouds

11:44 AM. Up and down, up and down, those wavy air motions that produced this interesting line.

3:37 PM. Classic Altostratus translucidus (sun’s position is visible).

5:20 PM. Sunset Altostratus (ice clouds) and Altocumulus (droplet clouds).

BTW, for horsey people, the Cement Trough had water in it yesterday after being completely dry ten days ago:

11:44 AM. At the Cement Trough headed to South Gate.

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¹See Rangno, 1973, unpublished manuscript and figures for the whole US using only the horizontal shear in jet stream at 500 mb as a definer of precip occurrences. Its really quite something, though, I guess you can’t see it.

²This was figured out by the Great Jacob Bjerknes of the Norwegian School of Meteorology while he was cruising into retirement (“Emeritus” status) at UCLA in the 1960s, though Chuck Pyke^3,4, his grad student, did most of the work. Did a lotta work on the big “Classic” El Niño of 1957-58, which, per chance turned out to be an International Geophysical Year with a lot of extra observations! How lucky wazzat?

³Chuck, as you may recall was in the National Guard whilst at UCLA and was sent to Biloxi, MS, for two weeks of training and while there, was “gifted” with the passage of the eye of Hurricane Camille, one of the strongest of the century. Later the remnants of Camille, to go on and on, produced 31 inches of rain in 6 h in Virginia.

⁴Chuck P, who now lives in Arizona, also was very thorough in his evaluations of rainfall in his other studies concerning the seasonal timing of rainfall throughout the West. He once told me when I visited UCLA once to get Bjerknes autograph⁵ that he had gone to every rainfall measuring site in his study! Now some people go to every baseball park in America, but going every rain gauge site would be more interesting to cloud mavens. He further told me he found one that had not moved for 30 years, but the rainfall had been decreasing. When he went to that gauge, he found that it was being overgrown by a tree! This is why you have to check things.

⁵I failed. He was “Emeritus”; too good to be in his office that day. You see, your Catalina cloud maven was a strange person even then, wanting an autobgraph by Bjerknes rather than one by Mickey Mantle, though one by Mickey M would be worth a lot more today.

High and middle clouds lining up for Catalina in early December

(Formerly titled: “Storms lining up for Catalina in early December”)

Things change.

Confidence was never real great in the spaghetti plots we rely on for hints about the reliability of our longest range “wishcasts,” as a friend puts it. Now it seems we’ll only see high (Cirrus) and middle (Alftocumulus and Altostratus) clouds on the edges of the rain areas that move across California, maybe the NW corner of Arizona, too, during the first week in December. Oh, I suppose there could be some virga with a sprinkle here from the thickest of those middle clouds, but that’s about it now.

But, on the happy side, we’ll see our usual array of stunning sunrises and sunsets under warm conditions when those high and middle clouds begin arriving about Saturday, the envy of many northern “climers”, or “northlats” this time of year. (Starting to see those Illinois, Minnesota, Ohio, license plates now, aren’t we?)

Our next chance at rain after that is not good but revovles, and the air does, around a cutoff low that gets stuck out of the mainstream here in the SW in mid-December. Those, unless you’re in the exact right position, or are gigantic like that one back in ’67, often have limited amounts of moisture. If you’ve never seen a cut off low, here’s what they look like in the middle troposphere, a forecast valid for this Monday afternoon:

Example of a cut off low at 500 millybars, or around 18,000 feet above sea level. They kind of meander around not doing much, then eventually dissipate as this one does as it begins to move eastward. — From the University of Washington Huskies Weather Department, this example of a cut off low at 500 millybars, or around 18,000 feet above sea level. They kind of meander around not doing much, then eventually dissipates/”opens up” into just a bend in the winds up there, as this one does as it begins to move eastward and then northeastward (the killer for us) as it comes into the Cal coast. Most of the jet stream, as indicated by numbers of contours, is far to the north, something that allows lows like this to pretty much have a mind of their own for awhile. The bulging northward contours over us mean that it will be toasty and dry here, maybe some Cirrus clouds around..

So, it would kind of lucky for us to get something out of it. And, when you’re in a droughty period, as we have been in for the past EIGHT weeks, things like that don’t usually work out in your favor. Its like being a football team that loses the close ones but also gets blown out in other games. Since we’re talking about sports now, a pause for a sports exultation: Washington¹ volleyball somehow beat No. 1 Stanford on Wednesday!

Special Scientist, Bob Maddox, who is an actual expert and does a superb weather blog for this area, has passed me a long range forecast from the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) recently that I will share with my reader:

A wet mid-winter in the Tucson area been forecast!

How wet? 2 inches in December, 4 inches in January, and a colossal 6 inches in February. Wow. There would certainly be flooding at some point later in this period.

These results derive from a longer range forecast model the CPC runs. Although the fantasy factor is high here, still, something to hope about. With a bit of an El Niño in progress, and this forecast resembling the tendency for El Niños to act up in aiding wetness in the Great Southwest in the mid-winter to spring, there is some SLIGHT credibility here.

Too, such forecast amounts resemble the great El Niño winter of 1992-93 that helped ruin the Biosphere 2 experiment, then in progress because there were too many clouds and not enough sunshine to make it “work.” Imagine.

OK, already getting too worked up about this. Will quit here.

The End

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¹The writer was employed in studies of clouds by the University of Washington’s Cloud and Aerosol Group, and quickly adopted the company teams as his own, one of the signs of a great employee, one who wore Washington this or that sports Tees in the off hours, no doubt helping to enhance Washington revenue streams.

Unusual patterns in afternoon Cirrus and Cirrocumulus clouds

Started out clear yesterday. Below, an example of that completely clear sky in case you missed it.

10:06 AM. Clear skies are evident. HOWEVER, note shallow smog plume exiting Tucson and flowing northwestward across Continental Ranch where Mark Albright, lives. — 10:06 AM. Clear skies are evident as we look in the general direction of Baja California. HOWEVER, note shallow smog plume exiting Tucson and flows northwestward across Continental Ranch over there by Twin Peaks where fellow University of Washington meteorologist, Mark Albright, lives.

I think it is interesting that Mark would chose to live as a snowbird in a smog plume rather than here in Catalina where that Tucson smog plume rarely strikes. Its pretty regular down there because the normal morning wind in Tucson is from the southeast and that wind shoves the urban smog over to Mark’s house on many cold mornings. Pretty funny, really.

Yesterday’s clouds

In the mid-afternoon, a stream of patchy Cirrus was beginning to creep over us. If you don’t believe me, you can see it in the University of Arizona time lapse film for yesterday.

And, in those leading Cirrus clouds were some spectacular, stupefying really, complex patterns of cloud formation and and holes in them, ones like CM had never seen before except maybe that one time in Durango back in the 1970s. Here are some examples of those odd that were up there:

3:14 PM overview of Cirrocumulus and Cirrus clouds with oddities.

3:14 PM Close up of previous cloud scene. Note all the weird stuff going on.

3:22 PM. More oddities. Going crazy trying to understand what the HECK is going on!

DSC_0052-1 — 3:23 PM. Close up of rectangular “fringe.”

Started to breath a sigh of relief when this melange of complexity moved off rapidly worrying that someone might call and ask me to explain it. So, when some Cirrus uncinus and/or the rarely seen Cirrus castellanus came by I started to relax, feel confident again. Here are some of those pretty shots of little, icy clouds trailing light snow showers, likely, to repeat again, crystals called bullet rosettes. The ones in the part of the cloud from which they spew are likely tiny prisms, side planes, and tiny solid columns, thick, but tiny hexagonal plates with little fall speed, so those hang up there, while the favored ones in the best tiny updrafts in these clouds that resemble tiny glacial Cumulus clouds grow from those kind germ crystals into bullet rosettes, complicated crystals with multiple tiny columns sticking out of them. If you would like to read all about the crystals that form in high icy clouds like these you should spend some time browsing this paper, co-authored by the great John Hallett^{1 I really like footnotes}–yes, of the Hallett and Mossop riming and splintering mechanism, discovered by them in 1974. Helped explain why there was a LOT of extra ice in clouds that shouldn’t have it.

Here’s one more weird scene in Cirrus before moving on to something explicable:

3:43 PM. Holes, plops of downward moving air amid the Cirrus/Cirrocumulus. But why so round?

Thankfully, here’s what transpired next at Cirrus levels:

4:02 PM. Cirrus uncinus (one with tufts or hooks at the top and long streamers of ice below them) followed the strangely patterned sky.

4:03 PM. Look at all the larger ice crystals pouring out these little guys! Its amazing. Notice how FINE those strands are. Airborne work we did indicated that the cores were only a 5-20 meters wide!

4:20 PM. Reminded me of ballet dancers the way the clouds and the streamers were arranged. — 4:20 PM. Reminded me of a ballet the way the clouds and the streamers were arranged around one another.

4:17 PM. Just a little before the dancing clouds came by, there toward the Gap was this CIrrus castellanus mimicry of a full grown Cumulonimbus cappillatus. Look, it even has a tiny anvil spreading out! How fun was that to see! — 4:17 PM. Just a little before the dancing clouds came by, there toward the Gap was this CIrrus castellanus mimicry of a full grown Cumulonimbus capillatus (tuft in center of photo). Look, it even has a tiny anvil spreading out, to use the word “tiny” for the 18th time! How fun was that to see!

Of course, with all the patchy Cirrus around we were guaranteed a nice sunset and it did not disappoint:

Today’s clouds

Heavy ice clouds, several kilometers thick at times. We call that kind of fray, often full sky-covering layer, Altostratus. Likely some Altocu around, too. Will look now and see if I see any of those latter ones. Oops, too dark.

With clouds kilometers thick, tops at Cirrus levels, you can expect to see virga, and the chance of a few “sprinkles-its-not-drizzle” later in the day. The whole progression of clouds can be seen from the U of AZ model output from last night in these forecast soundings for Tucson. As per usual, the bottoms get lower and lower as the day goes by, but are still up around 13, 000 feet above Catalina by around sunset. So, will be tough to get a drop to the ground before then. U of AZ mod thinks all measurable rain will be to the south of us. Oh, me.

BTW, and this is an embarrassment, it was asserted by this keyboard that rain would fall in November at the outset of the month. This is the last chance for that! Egad. But forgetting that possible gaffe, moving ahead anyway to what’s going to happen in December (of this year).

The storms way ahead, that is, ones in early December.

Those early December storms for us are coming and going in the WRF-GFS runs. But I am counting on rain here in early December myself due to an interpretation of those weird in so many ways, “spaghetti plots.” I think they’re showing, and continue to do so, significant troughs coming through the Southwest in early December.

The End

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¹Later after the referenced paper above, and this is quite interesting, the great Hallett was to claim that me and Pete Hobbs had embarrassed² the entire field of airborne researchers due to a paper published by us way back in 1983 (J. Hallett, 2008, communicated by him during his presentation at the Pete Hobbs Symposium Day of the American Meteorological Society, New Orleans.

²But it was a good embarrassment, not a bad one due to incompetence, I think.

Continuing…..

Beginning where we left off in our last chapter….that rain foretold here by the (affectionately) US WRF-GOOFUS models back a few days ago for the 19-21st for us only remains a possibility if you’re Canadian:

Valid at 5 PM AST, November 19th. Rainy system strikes Cal, on doorstep to AZ. You got yer subtropical jet stream crashing into the coast over southern Cal, a nice low off SFO, and plenty of rain predicted as far south as Los Angeles.

Valid at the SAME TIME as the Canadian GEM model above, 5 PM AST on the 19th of November! This is a horrible prediction by our own best model, because it robs us of our rain! For rain here in the cool season, we have to have the jet stream over or to the south of us here in Arizona, and here the jet stream is over Oregon! There is no low off Frisco! No "Waterworld1" here — Valid at the SAME TIME as the Canadian GEM model above, 5 PM AST on the 19th of November! This is a horrible prediction by our own best model, because it robs us of our rain! For rain here in the cool season, we have to have the jet stream over or to the south of us here in Arizona, and here the jet stream is over Oregon! There is no low off Frisco, either! No “Waterworld1” here.

Areas of rain predicted for the 6 h preceding 5 PM AST November 19th by the US WRF-GOOFUS model. The low pressure center, rather than off Frisco, is way up there by Annette Island! Or is maybe that one inland in B C.

So, with “model divergence” like this, what’s a poor meteorologist to do? Well, here, at least, we go with the Smokers¹‘ version absolutely. Look for a chance of rain here in Catalina land on the 19th-21st window, as has been suggested here a few days ago, and for that reason alone we are “staying the course” as President’s like to say. We’re not here to give you necessarily the best forecast, but rather a consistent one. So, in conclusion, look for clouds and a chance of rain around the 20th. Furthermore, to maintain consistency and build confidence in the reader by avoiding the emotional distress caused by “fluctuating forecasts”, we might be forecasting rain right up until it doesn’t happen!

—–Temperature note, or “Egad!”———

Got an e-mail from local pal, Mark A., that the -27 F recorded in Wyoming a couple of days ago was the lowest temperature ever recorded in the State for the whole month of November! How could that be? It was only 12-13th of the month! Incredible. Weather, global warming or not, are truly amazing!

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Yesterday’s clouds

Here are a couple shots of the Cirrus clouds we had yesterday and thge day before, so the header is not accurate. Not much going on lately, but those Cirrus clouds did make the sky pretty at times before racing off toward the eastern horizon.

6:39 AM November 12th. Cirrus clouds add color to the morning sunrise.

9:46 AM. But which day? This is a surprise quiz for those aspiring to cloud mavenhood.

The End

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¹Movie buffs of course, recall the great Kevin Costner movie, “Waterworld” and know that the villainous “Smokers” in that movie were Costner’s subtle nod to Canadians who smoke a lot. Pretty funny, really. I can’t believe all the pop culture information you get here! Its pretty incredible.

¹I put in a second “1” footnote in case you missed the first one.

While waiting for S, the (NASA) Diary of the Great O

While waiting for the remnants of former H. Simon to pass over us during the next couple of days, bringing some rain, starting overnight, got distracted while looking to see how many rainfall measuring stations they have in Baja Cal, and found this about the Great O from NASA. Its a pretty fascinating read I thought, which you will also find fascinating. Sure, intense hurricane O’s floody remnants missed us here in Catalina/Tucson, but it did produce some prodigious rainfall on its path across Baja and points northeast from there into NM. NASA’s Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) radar estimates that over the ocean off southwest Mexico that about 33 inches fell over a ten day period while O was meandering around down there with some other disturbances, probably raising sea level that bit. And up to 5 inches per hour was falling in rainbands as it entered Mexico from the Gulf of Cal! O was deemed the strongest hurricane (tied with 1967’s Olivia) to ever hit southern Baja since sat images became available.

You will also see reprised in the “Diary of O” the huge rainfall totals that were expected in the TUS area but rains that missed us, the sad part of the story for some folks, who we will not mention. But, as Carlos Santana said, “Those who do not know history, are doomed to repeat it.”

For that reason, in view of the prodigious rains predicted in southern AZ again, but to the west of us, I thought we should be prepared for disappointment by recalling O’s “terrible” miss for TUS.

Here are some graphics from our very fine U of AZ Weather Department’s Beowulf Cluster computer outputs from just last evening at 11 PM AST, ones that can be found here, in case you don’t believe me again, a seeming theme around here. First, when the computer model thinks it will start raining, Figure 1, and in Figure 2, the expected gigantic totals expected along and near the US border where we really shouldn’t go unless you 1) go in an armored vehicle of some kind, 2) make prior arrangements with the appropriate ruling Mexican drug cartel for that part of the US that you just want to visit some rain, nothing more:

Figure 1. Valid for 2 AM AST tonight. The leading edge of the rain has reached Catalina. You might want to stay up for that. That wet desert aroma as rain begins is so awesome!

Valid for 3 PM tomorrow afternoon. One small area around Organ Pipe National Park is forecast to exceed TEN inches by then! — Figure 2. Valid for 3 PM tomorrow afternoon. One small, mountainous area around Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument is forecast have more than TEN inches by then, likely slowing the amount of incoming drugs. Organ Pipe Cactus NM is a US national park that you are warned not to visit, or if you do, you might be shot or have some other untoward happenstance if you go hiking. So you probably shouldn’t drive down there to see this once in a century rain. How sad is THAT?

Right now, as of 4 AM AST on Thursday, this model thinks Catalina and vicinity will get less than half an inch. Be prepared for more, though, rather than less. Note the streamer of heavy precip associated with Simon in Figure 2. Well, recall that O’s heavy precip streamer was going to be right over us, but then shifted eastward in the models and in real life at the last minute. The above prediction would only have a bit of a “westward bias” (the real streamer is EAST of where its shown now) to give TUS and vicinity a memorable, drenching October rain. This is what occurred with O’s streamer of torrential rain which was expected to pass over TUS, but ended up a little east of us. So, anyway, given all the little uncertainties in model predictions at this point, the watchword here is “watch out” which is actually two words. The view from here, incorporating a positive rain bias as you know, is somewhere around an inch for Catalina. The grassy green is gone, most annuals in serious wilt or crispy now, but could an inch bring some green back? Clueless on that score.

Yesterday’s Clouds

6:06 AM. Nice Cirrus sunrise. — 6:06 AM. Nice Cirrus sunrise, maybe some Cirrocumulus at far right, and off on the left horizon.

5:05 PM. Altostratus translucidus with an Altocumulus layer on the horizon.

5:07 PM. A “classic” view of Altostratus translucidus (sun’s position can be discerned through it), and here, an all ice path to the sun. Liquid cloud elements would appear as dark flakes, or would obscure the sun’s position. Sounding indicated that this layer was 26 kft above the ground in Catalina!

The End.

Rain to fall in Catalina during October

Remember last October we didn’t get nothing, we got a trace instead, which is almost nothing. This October, with a juicy tropical storm remnant headed our way, I predict something more than nothing which is quite something. Remember it was foretold here just a month ago that rain would fall in September in Catalina…

TS Simon, about to be a remnant low by tomorrow, the NOAA hurricane folks say, is beginning to send in the clouds to Arizona with promises of rain, “real” rain, at least a tenth of an inch. Here’s Simon as seen by NOAA’s NexSat just a few minutes ago, and do we really need all that lighting?:

Satellite image of Simon as of 6 AM this morning.

Today

Overcast to broken Cirrus is all most of the day, likely thickening into Altostratus at times, thinning at other times–you can see that sequence approaching us in the sat image above.

As you cloud folk know, Altostratus is a Cirrus-like cloud that’s much deeper with tops at Cirrus levels as a rule, but bottoms in the middle levels, between roughly about 8,000 and 22, 000 feet above the ground. Altostratus, a layer cloud that covers much or all of the sky, has gray shading which Cirrus can’t have (with the exception of one patchy variety, Cirrus spissatus). Like Cirrus, As clouds are usually all ice. Maybe some Ac later, too. So, not a REAL interesting cloud day for you.

The Catalina Water Year Record Updated through 2013-14

This is probably the only worthwhile part of this blog. Actually our total, from a Davis Vantage Pro Mark IV Extra Deluxe Personal Weather Station “tipping bucket” gauge located here is probably a little low. A chincy CoCoRahs gauge always had more, including 4.63 inches on the Sept 8 true monsoon day, whereas the tipsy bucket couldn’t apparently keep up, reporting “only” 4.18 inches. The actual water year total is likely just over 15 inches.

The End.