CS3 preview: its got rain in it, likely also our first real good windy day in awhile. In sum, a real action packed, thriller of a day coming. Don’t miss it!
1. We didn’t get the odd cloud bases yesterday. That lower undercutting layer of…..Altocumulus clouds (of course, you knew what they were) below the icy Altostratus clouds was too thin, not embedded in much wind shear, so the hoped for weird cloud bottoms didn’t materialize though there were hints of those concave bases off to the north late in the afternoon.
2. Since I was disappointed that really weird cloud bases didn’t show up yesterday afternoon, instead of showing the clouds that did show up right away, I thought I would annoy you first with a public service message:
“Arizona reminds drivers that when you see a sign informing you that you are on a DIRT road, that the speed limit is often no more than 15 mph.”
Here are the clouds that did show up yesterday, pretty much as the U of AZ model predicted:
Since there were sprinkles around Catalina last night, you’ll want to check your “trace detector”–a car parked outside overnight with a coating of dust on it–for drop images in that dust. I hope you didn’t forget to keep your car outside last night, as good CMJs do in possible sprinkle situations that you might otherwise miss. Happy to report a sprinkle here last night.
Residual Cumulus and Altostratus, some Altocumulus (now that I can see them) patchy Cirrus, clearing out later in the day.
Cold slam3, the sequel
Saturday, February 9th. Precip looks substantial, likely MORE than half an inch here in Catalina should Canadian GEM model, shown below, verify.
Rather unsettling is that the USA! WRF-GFS, our best model, has virtually NO precip with this cold blast. When two numerical model outputs are so different the term thrown around is, “model divergence”. However, since “wetter is better”, a kind of non-viable theme here, I am now going on record as foretelling at LEAST 0.15 inches, top amount 0.60 inches, beginning on February 9th. This is the sports-like part of weather forecasting, riding the models, seeing how they change in the days ahead, and whether you get the amount you foresee, around a third of an inch median amount.
What is ASSURED for us here in Catalina is the cold blast, with or without liquid refreshments. Check this NOAA plot below out:
The End, unless I think of a correction or addendum, which seems to happen every day!