Here is the temperature change from yesterday morning at this time to today at this time, courtesy of The Weather Channel and due to that dry cool front that went through yesterday. Its about 8 degrees cooler this morning here in Catalina compared to yesterday at this same time. Nice.
But, its back to above normal temperatures for a few days after this respite. Normal is around 90-92 F here in Catalina for this time of year, but a 100 F is just ahead I’m afraid. No rain seen in mods for the next 15 days, too. Feeling glum.
Had some nice supercooled Altocumulus translucidus clouds yesterday after the Cirrus departed. Here’s a shot that was taken as an aircraft flew through a patch of it. Note fine contrail. These clouds, from the Tucson sounding at 5 AM AST, appear to have been at temperatures between -15 and -20 C, ripe for aircraft to produce icy canals or holes, and that’s what happened. Below is the rest of the sequence, taken from different locations. In the last shot, the tip of that icy contrail began to light up and I thought I might see some color due to refracting ice crystals, but it didn’t happen. These aircraft effects on supercooled clouds are receiving more attention in the scientific community, BTW.
For a time, too, we had our lenticular cloud friend downstream of the Catalina Mountains in its normal position.
Check this “four panel” out, bottom of blog, from the Canadians from their model run last night. Its valid for the afternoon of Thursday, May 24th at 5 PM AST.
My first thoughts: Egad! Holy Smokes!
Looks like low temperature records will be broken in the West and Pac Northwest as this comes through those areas. However, the thought of the ovenly air over the Southwest at this same time, being drawn into the western High Plains States was alarming. This is because it could get superhot over there as our hot air comes down out of the Rockies. Fortunately, the models don’t show the 120 F temperatures in the Plains my alarmist mind was generating.
What WE will get here in Catalina as this giant trough settles in the West for several days is a LOT of wind and dust in a lot of hot air before the cooler air arrives sometime after May 25th.
This period of wind and hot air will be awful for the fire situation. No rain is indicated with this giant low, too.
I dread these days because you’re thinking about how much is on the line as far as our forests go.