Of weather forecasting? Models? Me? Nope.
Turning Casey Stengel’s famous comment about his woeful New York Mets into one about weather forecasting seemed appropriate after our little disturbance passed over yesterday afternoon and evening with hardly even virga here! Got a little depressed at how delusional I was about a squall-line (lion?) feature I thought would accompany that. No way, no how; just winds and dust yesterday, and some Cumulus and Cirrus clouds, maybe a Cumuonimbus off in the distance about 1000 miles away. It was sad all right as weather forecasting self-esteem plummeted.
Reminded me, too, of my euphoric thoughts days in advance when the models were predicting so much rain in the area. If you don’t know of it, there is a lab standard called the Passionate Love Scale (PLS) developed by psychologists. And I went through that as though I was a single guy who’s just met his soulmate; the initial obsessive-delusional stage (sometimes called, “filling in the blanks” about that person you really don’t know yet and is still an enigma). In my case, thinking about all that rain that was coming all the time. And how the clouds would look.
Then, “euphoric”, as in the PLS, as when things are going well in the early relationship, even just a few comments; for me in weather forecasting, it was when the models were replicating a lot of rain in run after run in the days ahead of yesterday. It was “in the bag”, as they say, or so it seemed. Yes, I felt great. There would be a dent in the drought!
But, no. It was all a delusion, especially on my part, seeing in my mind things like a nice arcus cloud with a squall-line feature that I thought would move through yesterday afternoon or evening. No way, no how, just winds and dust. Dammitall, to cuss that bit. Imagine, in this same PLS vein, you think you’re new partner-to-be-maybe is brainy, and then you learn that she’s spends a lot of time planning her day based on her horoscope! Hmmmm.
Well, all this delusion that can arise in humans is why we have double blind, randomized trials in medicine and other solid sciences, and it certainly arose in me for this last storm (and in other areas which aren’t lurid enough for re-tellling here–hahahah).
So, we have another chance at a LITTLE rain (not getting carried away again here, being cautious about “my” new model runs). Bottom amount, trace, top amount, 0.25 inches, by Friday, noon. OK?
Skies were nice, though, yesterday. Here are some shots for aesthetics. It will help you remember and forget. First, cumulus racing from the S with a dusty horizon, second, moderate Cumulus with virga, third, dusty sunset featuring some Cirrocumulus (whitish clouds below higher Cirrus). Finally, mom, asking, “HOW could you make a forecast as bad as that yesterday, son?” She was pretty sad about it and wouldn’t “let it go.” (hahah, just kidding here.) ((That’s my nature; helps relieve pain.))