Our latest cut off is now “in place” over northern Baja, California. Below is the latest map (5 am today) combining satellite images with the 500 mb contours from the U of WA. Now it will sit and spin before moving off to the ENE and the center passing right over my house here in Catalina Saturday night into Sunday morning. Makes me feel important to have a low right over me because me and you will be the center of attention as well as under the center of the low on all the weather discussions around the country.
Now, it is true that this low is pretty dry right now, not much going on in the way of rain anywhere (check here), but, sitting where it is, that will change and we should get another “decent” rain out of this beginning Saturday night into Sunday morning. SOP QPF? Maybe a quarter of an inch of rain. “SOP QPF”? Just a quick eyeball assessment based on patterns, not on models right now. But our great model output from the U of AZ here will have something to say about this later this morning when the model run is finished. But why wait for it to finish and have a better forecast? Because you wanna know NOW, and I have to go on and do something else. Besides your favorite TEEVEE person and the NWS will have all the gory details when the model run is finished anyway. So, really, I am of no use whatever here. I’m feeling sad now. But I’ll get over it.
Note in that satellite loop how high clouds are appearing in central AZ. Those will be increasing and appearing more upwind as the low sits where it is, eventually deepening into rain/snow showers over the high terrain in the north and in the western part, and then as it moves off, a nice band of rain should move through here Saturday night.
With this low sitting there for awhile, we could see some really interesting Cirrus and Altocumulus clouds in delicate patterns I hope, and great sunsets before the rain gets here. I really hope to see some Altocumulus castellanus this time. That will be one of the best parts to this little guy spinning down there.
Another great sight is all the rain and snow predicted for NM and TX as this low finally, and slowly, trudges across the Southwest (seen here–hit the play button to see the whole loop). Once again this should do wonders in helping to knock out the awful drought in those areas.
The End. Maybe some nice cloud shots tomorrow for tomorrow’s harangue.
Actually, its not the end because I just remembered that I forgot to mention that I saw WATER in the Sutherland Wash and one of its tributaries on a horseback ride yesterday! How great is that? Below, a former riding partner’s horse that I bought and now ride, “Big JohnT”, romps in a tributary to the Sutherland.