The model rain ahead; two episodes
The low that plunks down off the coast of Baja this weekend from southern California, circles around out there for a couple of days, before deciding to move back over southern California with clouds and rain. If it was a song, it would be The Wanderer. Yes, that fits. Its expected to scoop up a generous helping of middle and high clouds from the deep tropics as extra baggage. The “extra baggage” (model predicted rain) arrives here late on the 26th (Monday) and continues off and on through Tuesday night. The first clouds, of course, high ones like Cirrus, will begin arriving a day ahead of the actual rain, on Sunday.
It is virtually certain that there will be some high-based Cumulonimbus clouds and thunderstorms in these masses from the tropics, though maybe not here. Most of the rain is projected for eastern California and western Arizona where rain is really needed–and how great is that?
However, we should be in for a quarter inch or so, anyway. Last time I guessed limits on a storm, even the lower limit of 10% chance of less than 0.05 inches wasn’t even realized. Pretty pathetic forecast. But, moving forward and forgetting past errors, this one seems to have a similar range of possibilities, the least amount 0.05 inches, the most, 0.50 inches. The chance of measurable rain here in Catalina in this first 36 h storm period is probably, from this typewriter, about 80%.
“But wait! There’s more!” “Maybe!”
A second system floats in right after that and from Jan 29th through early in Feb, and more welcomed showers are possible.
You can check out these prognostications in a more professional way at IPS MeteoStar, this link to the latest model run from 11 PM AST last evening.
1Who can forget Dion and the Belmonts?